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February 8, 2012, Cover Stories, Taxes
Halfway Back to Prosperity?
Carmen Reinhart, co-author with Kenneth Rogoff of the best-selling "This Time Is Different," spoke at the IMCA conference in New York this week. We're five years into a 10-year recovery from the credit binge, she said.
“If you study the history of financial crises,” the economist and best-selling author Carmen Reinhart told some 800 investment consultants in the ballroom of a Times Square hotel this week, you discover that “they cast a long shadow.”
Reinhart’s 500-page tome, This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (Princeton, 2009), makes dry reading. But she spoke with almost operatic passion this week as she warned the members of the Investment Management Consultants Association that the nation is only about five years into what, historically, is a decade-long de-leveraging process.
“I’m talking about a muddling-through scenario where growth recovery is weaker than what we are used to since World War II,” she said mordantly.
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