A Mixed Economic Bag in 2019
Seven factors will shape the global economy this year, writes our guest columnist, a professor at New York University.
Guest Column
How Government Policy Promotes Wealth Inequality
'Simply leveling wealth from the top still will leave a large number of households holding zero percent of all societal wealth,' writes our regular columnist, a former Treasury official.
Fourth Quarter Fears are Disappearing
'The stock market’s slide late last year was unnerving... Our sense was that the economic fundamentals remained solid and that the selloff was nothing more than exaggerated stock...
Two Cheers for Population Decline
'Pension systems can be made affordable by increasing average retirement ages, which will create incentives for societies to enable healthy aging, with people enjoying good physical and mental health...
Shelter from the Storm in 2019
Good outcomes on five fronts--US economic growth, European unity, US-China trade, the Chinese economy, and Robert Mueller's investigation of the President--would help ensure a placid year.
In Defense of the Fed
'The Fed, it is to be hoped, is finally coming clean on the perils of asset-dependent growth and the long string of financial bubbles that has done great damage...
The Economic War-of-Choice on China
The global economy won't be able to rely on U.S. domestic consumption as the main source of demand for another decade, so the Chinese market’s rapid growth should be...
Numbernomics’ Forecast for 2019
'The stock market will climb to a record high level during 2019. But for this to happen, investment spending must continue to grow rapidly, and productivity must sustain a...
Send Pensioners Back to Work?
'With able-bodied retirees “working” for a pension, consumption patterns among the elderly need not decline, and governments would have more fiscal space to support the most vulnerable,' writes our...
How to Save Social Security Systems
'A mixed system that combines the existing PAYG system with a small investment-based component can achieve a higher expected level of benefits with little risk of lower benefit levels,'...
Tax Cut and Tech Brighten US Economic Outlook
'I believe sustained investment spending and faster productivity growth will boost potential GDP growth from 1.8% to 2.8% within a few years,' writes our guest columnist.
Expect a Rocky Return to ‘Normal Valuations’
The Fed's ability to fight the next economic downturn with monetary policy and the federal government's ability to fight it with fiscal policy will both be limited, writes our...
The Link Between Aging and Populism
'A growing sense of insecurity may be pushing the elderly into the populists’ arms... Nationalist parties all promise to stem global forces that will affect older people disproportionately,' writes...
Do Spectacular Earnings Justify Spectacular Stock Prices?
'A bear market could come without warning or apparent reason, or with the next recession, which would negatively affect corporate earnings. That outcome is hardly assured, but it would...
Regulation, Kavanaugh, Trump & the Indexing of Capital Gains
'Presidents and political parties favor regulation mainly when it when it advances their own agenda, regardless of the number of pages it adds to the Federal Register,' writes our...
Will Small Employers Adopt Multiple Employer Plans?
The CEO of the Employee Benefit Research Institute considers the potential impact of President Trump's executive order in support of multiple employer plans, or 'open MEPs,' for small businesses....
Trump’s Policies Will Displace the Dollar
Donald Trump’s 'profligate fiscal policies and reckless trade and sanctions policies will undermine America’s economy and the role of the dollar in global finance,' writes our guest columnist, an...
The Economy Gathers Momentum
'The Fed should maintain the interest rate glide path it has described, which will boost the funds rate to the 3.2% mark by the end of next year and...
Should We Worry About Higher Oil Prices?
'Faster global growth contributed to the earlier increase in oil prices. Slower growth triggered by reduced trade flows will do the opposite,' writes our guest columnist.
Healthy economy ahead: Phil Chao
With the long end of the Treasury yield curve suppressed by demand for safe assets, the Fed is limited in how high it can raise short-term rates, writes the...
