Is Politics Getting to the Fed?
'It is no secret that Trump regards the stock market’s performance as an indicator of his own performance. But it has been surprising to see the Fed join the...
Interest rates
No Need for Lower Rates, but Rate Cuts Likely Anyway
'The Fed’s story is confusing to us. Not only do we think lower rates are unnecessary, they are unlikely to help the Fed achieve its goals. Instead, Trump should...
What Will Fuel The Next Recovery?
'So we are back to facing the same question as in 2016: What to do if stagnation threatens when interest rates are already close to zero? Among the proposed...
Understanding the Fed’s Dovish Turn
'The Fed has had to demonstrate its independence in the face of political pressures. In December, when it signaled further rate hikes, Trump had been calling for a pause,'...
Retail investors reach for income when interest rates fall
A one percentage point drop in the federal funds rate is associated, over the following three years, with a five percent increase in the inflows to stock mutual funds...
Survey shows how advisors generate income for clients
A survey by bond dealer Incapital LLC showed that 51% of financial advisors generate income for clients from dividend-paying stocks, 43% from equity income mutual funds, and 43% from...
Expect a Rocky Return to ‘Normal Valuations’
The Fed's ability to fight the next economic downturn with monetary policy and the federal government's ability to fight it with fiscal policy will both be limited, writes our...
JENGA as a Financial Metaphor
Playing JENGA and watching the interest rate yield curve flatten involve similar degrees of suspense.
Fed raises benchmark rate to range of 1.75% – 2.0%
The last time the rate topped 2% was in late summer 2008, when the economy was contracting and the Fed was cutting rates toward zero.
America’s Exploding Budget Deficit
The U.S. should slow the cost of Social Security by raising the age threshold for receiving full benefits to 70 from 67, recommends Harvard's deficit hawk.
As the discount rate rises, so do pension funding ratios: Milliman
Milliman's forecasts for the discount rate range from a high of 4.43% by end of 2018 and 5.03% by end of 2019 to a low of 3.63% at end...
Insurers should be wary of sharp rate hike: A.M. Best
Disintermediation risk, increases in hedging costs and capital strain due to reversal of unrealized gains could strain insurers, the rating agency warned.
Allies pay for our nukes by holding US bonds, economists suggest
The countries that benefit most from American military protection are the ones who hold the biggest share of their foreign reserves in US Treasuries, which may lower our borrowing...
The Fed Reveals its Game Plan
'Given a snail’s pace of removing excessive monetary policy accommodation, it is hard to envision Fed policy threatening the economy any time soon,' a former senior economist at the...
Fed No Longer Controls Rates
'We believe the probability of the Fed raising rates three times in 2017 is less than what the market has begun to price in post the Donald Trump election,'...
Interest rate drought not over: A.M. Best
'While aggregated industry bond portfolio yields have consistently declined to 4.71% in 2015 from 4.88% in 2014 and 4.99% in 2013, strategic investment decisions have helped mitigate further declines...
No reason to raise rates now, writes heterodox economist
In the paper, 'Normalizing the Fed Funds Rate: The Fed’s Unjustified Rationale,' economist Flavia Dantas of SUNY-Cortland, claims that the U.S. job market is much softer than the official...
Trump and the Trajectory of Interest Rates
'There could be pressure for rates to go higher as investors digest the deficit spending pushed by Mr. Trump,' said Andrew McCormick, head of T. Rowe Price’s U.S. taxable...
Was that a zig (or a zag) on interest rate policy?
“I know market participants really want to know exactly what’s going to happen,” Fed chair Janet Yellen said in a speech in Philadelphia this week. “There is, as I...
The Fed’s Risky New Mandate
With the Fed deciding, yet again, to hold rates, their dilemma will only intensify this year: normalize monetary policy in line with domestic fundamentals, or cede to the pressures...
