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Born to be vetoed: Two more House bills target DOL proposal

While the Office of Management and Budget reviews the budgetary implications of the Department of Labor’s forthcoming “fiduciary rule,” the Republican-led House Committee on Education and the Workforce approved two bills on Feb. 2, 2016  that would nullify the DOL’s proposed rule.

The two similar bills, which would likely be vetoed by President Obama if they reached his desk, are:

  • The “Affordable Retirement Advice Protection Act” (HR 4293) introduced by Rep. Phil Roe (R-Tenn.) addresses ERISA jurisdiction;  
  • The “Strengthening Access to Valuable Education and Retirement Support (SAVERS) Act” (HR 4293) introduced by Rep. Peter Roskam (R-Ill.) would amend the Internal Revenue Code. 

The two bills are written in the customary congressional style, which makes interpretation by a layperson nearly impossible. But they seem intended to maintain the status quo in provision of financial advice to 401(k) participants and IRA owners.

In the status quo, the line between “advice” and sales and marketing is blurred (with respect to IRAs (and any other assets). The advisor’s only obligation to clients is to disclose that he is a salesperson and not a trustworthy advisory conflicts of interests; most clients don’t read or  understand the disclosures.   

The DOL proposal would resolve this ambiguity by requiring sellers of financial products to IRA owners to act solely in the interests of the client. But, in making it illegal for sales to masquerade as advice, the DOL threatens to eliminate a vast amount of sales activity virtually overnight.

Financial services companies could adapt, but it would require fundamental, expensive changes to business models and processes. Hence the partisan effort, through legislation, to stop or emasculate the proposed rule. It’s still possible that the final version of the rule will be softer than the proposal, but no one’s counting on that. 

The second bill, also similar to one introduced in December, uses similar language to amend the Internal Revenue Code. (The IRS would enforce the new DOL rule.) Both of the new bills require congressional approval of the DOL’s final rule before it goes into effect and, if Congress did not approval the final rule, Congress would offer “alternative fiduciary protection for consumers.”   

© 2016 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Human asset transfers: Finke to American College, Webb to New School

Michael Finke, Ph.D., a professor and Director of Retirement Planning and Living in the Department of Personal Financial Planning at Texas Tech University, has been named Dean and Chief Academic Officer at The American College of Financial Services in Bryn Mawr, PA. will assume his new duties this summer.

Finke has published more than 50 peer-reviewed articles since joining the Texas Tech faculty. His research questioning the 4% rule in the Journal of Financial Planning with The American College professor, Dr. Wade Pfau, won the 2014 Montgomery Warschauer Award for the most influential article in the Journal of Financial Planning

In addition to conducting research and advising students, Dr. Finke writes the monthly “Finke on Finance” column for Research Magazine in which he uses research to help professionals understand timely industry topics.  He has also worked on white paper research projects for companies including Northwestern Mutual, OneAmerica, MetLife, the Society of Actuaries, and TIAA-CREF.

Dr. Finke received a doctorate in consumer economics from The Ohio State University in 1998 and in finance from the University of Missouri in 2011. He also served as the director of graduate studies at the University of Missouri. Since 2006, Dr. Finke has directed the Ph.D. program at the Texas Tech University Department of Personal Financial Planning.

Anthony (Tony) Webb, Ph.D. is moving to the Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA) in the economics department of the New School in New York. He will serve as Research Director of SCEPA’s Retirement Equity Lab (ReLab), effective March 1, 2016.

Webb is moving to the New School from his current position as senior research economist at the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. He has also served as a senior research analyst at the International Longevity Center.

At SCEPA, Webb will manage the ReLab research team, produce original research on the retirement crisis, and oversee ReLab’s support of retirement reform at the local, state, and federal levels.

Webb holds a doctorate in economics from the University of California, San Diego. He has studied the impact of pension type on the retirement age, the financing of long-term care, and the management of the asset decumulation process, with a focus on quantifying the magnitude of the retirement savings crisis and to “refute the claims of the retirement crisis deniers.” 

ReLab, led by economist and retirement expert Teresa Ghilarducci, researches the causes and consequences of the downward mobility in retirement that millions of Americans will face. The Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA) is an economic policy think tank.

© 2016 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Mothers, Don’t Let Your Babies Grow Up to Be… Student Debtors

How will young people be able to pay off more than $1 trllion in student loans and still be able to buy homes, educate their children, save for retirement?  

The answer will have implications not just for younger people. Boomers will be counting on the savings of Millennials, and of Gen X and Gen Y, to provide liquidity when they go to sell their securities and their homes. 

That question is examined in a research brief circulated this week by Alicia Munnell and Tony Webb of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. If all current retirees had today’s levels of college debt, the CRR’s National Retirement Risk Index (NRRI) would be 56.2% instead of 51.6%, they calculate. If student debt were eliminated, the NRRI would be 49.2%.

The household impact of student debt depends on the size of the debt, of course. But, overall, CRR found 60.1% of households with student debt were at risk for not maintaining their current level of consumption in retirement, compared to 49.2% for those without student debt.

In the pace of just 12 years, the volume of student debt in the US skyrocketed. “Student loan debt was $1.2 trillion in 2015, compared to just $0.2 trillion in 2003. It now accounts for more than 30% of total household non-mortgage debt, having surpassed credit card debt in 2011,” Webb and Munnell write. “The average student debt level for recent college students in 2013 was $31,000. The question is whether starting out $31,000 in the hole could have a big impact on households’ retirement preparedness.”

The researchers showed that the burden of student debt probably hinders the accumulation of home equity, a key source of wealth for middle-class retirees and the basis for reverse mortgage annuities or lines of credit. “Homeownership among households ages 30-39 declined from 58% to 53% between 2001 and 2013,” the CRR Brief said. “Households with student debt are 6.7% less likely to own a home and that the homes they do own will have a 5.4% lower value… Those with student debt may also delay buying a house.”

Parents often co-sign for student debt, so that it is “not just an issue for younger people, but also for their parents,” the authors wrote. It’s not just an issue for those with lower incomes either. “Middle- and high-income households are more likely to have student debt than those in the bottom third of the income distribution,” the report said.

Students who borrow money for college but don’t graduate will be the one’s most at risk for retirement shortfalls. “Those with student loans who have completed college have only a slightly higher percentage at risk than those without student debt (52.9% versus 49.2%),” the authors wrote, “but for households with student loans that did not complete college the difference is enormous (67.1% versus 49.2%).”

© 2016 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Honorable Mention

Robo-watch: New product enhances digital advice channel

Wealthbox CRM, web-based client relationship management application for financial advisors, released the Wealthbox API for technology partners in the fintech space. Developers can use it to create custom applications and data widgets for advisors using the Wealthbox CRM platform to integrate with their online services.

The Wealthbox API is REST-based and is part of a new version upgrade called Wealthbox 2.0, said Dan Ferranti, CTO of Starburst Labs, Inc., the makers of Wealthbox.

Wealthbox CRM for Gmail was also announced today. Available through a Google Chrome extension, the integration allows financial advisors using Gmail to view Wealthbox CRM activity in Gmail and add new contacts to Wealthbox, lookup contact details from Gmail, review and add client notes to Wealthbox, deep link to a contact record page from Gmail, and “send and save” emails to Wealthbox from Gmail in one click.

New Wealthbox API integrations are coming soon, from complementary fintech products to enabling services like Zapier.

The Wealthbox CRM for Gmail feature follows the recent Wealthbox+Slack integration. Said Alan Moore, co-founder of the XY Planning Network, “With the Wealthbox API and the new Gmail feature Starburst Labs continues to solidify itself as a forward-thinking technology company that has developed a CRM that advisors actually want to use. This is why the XY Planning Network provides Wealthbox CRM to all of its members.”

Wealthbox CRM is produced by Starburst Labs, Inc. (formerly Gotham Tech Labs) in New York. Starburst Labs’ suite of online products, including Wealthbase and InvestorSay, connect financial advisors with investors.  

Planning pays off: LIMRA

A new LIMRA Secure Retirement Institute study finds that pre-retirees and retirees (ages 55-75 with financial assets of $100,000+) who have a formal written retirement plan are more likely to feel more confident they are saving enough for retirement and more than twice as likely to feel very prepared for retirement than those without one.

The study, The Benefits of Retirement Planning, revealed significant differences between those with and without a formal written plan:   

  • Half of pre-retirees and retirees with formal written plan say they feel very prepared for retirement, compared with just 17% of those without one.
  • 80% of those with a formal written plan have estimated how many years their assets will last into retirement, nearly double of those who don’t have a formal written plan (42%).
  • 78% of those with a formal written plan have developed a specific plan for generating income from savings; only 38% of those without a formal written plan have done so.

The Institute found that pre-retirees and retirees who have formal written retirement plans are more likely to roll over and consolidate their assets within two years.  They are also more likely to convert a portion of their assets into an annuity within two years:

  • Pre-retirees with formal written plans are twice as likely to convert a portion of their assets into guaranteed income (22% vs. 11%).
  • Retirees with formal written plans are three times as likely to convert a portion of their assets into guaranteed income (25% vs. 8%).

T. Rowe Price mobilizes retirement readiness effort

T. Rowe Price has officially launched a redesigned Workplace Retirement site for its nearly 2 million plan participants. With the implementation of the new design, which provides optimal browsing on mobile devices, the firm has seen:

  • 13% increase in enrollment completion rates over the past year.
  • Creation of personalized Confidence Numbers by more than 50,000 participants (a way to measure the likelihood that users will meet their retirement savings targets, on a scale from 0-100).
  • 57% more mobile traffic versus the old site.

Other key features of the newly redesigned site include:

  • The ability for participants to create their own personalized Confidence Number
  • Full integration with the T. Rowe Price FuturePath® planning tool
  • The ability to aggregate and view balances, including outside assets
  • Larger, more interactive charts
  • A new account dashboard with the balance features used most by participants
  • Tools, educational content, and videos to help participants make more informed decisions when they are considering taking a loan from their retirement plan
  • The ability to initiate and complete a loan request entirely online, on any device
  • A Loan Status Tracker that shows where the loan is in the process and when the participant can expect to receive the funds.

Sumitomo Life completes purchase of Symetra

Symetra Financial Corporation announced the completion of the acquisition of Symetra by Sumitomo Life Insurance Company in accordance with the terms of the previously announced Agreement and Plan of Merger, dated Aug. 11, 2015. As a result of the merger, each outstanding share of common stock of Symetra was converted into the right to receive $32.00 per share in cash, without interest, less any applicable withholding taxes, and Symetra has become a wholly owned subsidiary of Sumitomo Life. Shares of Symetra common stock will no longer be listed for trading on the New York Stock Exchange.

© 2016 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

DFA and S&P Collaborate on STRIDE Index

For years, economist Robert Merton has tried to commercialize his solution to an alchemical challenge: How to transmute the piles of tax-deferred paper wealth that Americans accumulate in tax-deferred plans into the actual consumption of food, clothing, transportation and shelter over a 25-year span of retirement.

Merton has long believed that, given the drawbacks of annuities, building a nest egg mainly out of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) can best meet that challenge. So far three firms, SmartNest, Trinsum Group, and Dimensional Fund Advisors have tried to monetize his vision, but without much success.

The latest vehicle for bringing the Nobelist’s patented idea (Merton shared the 1997 prize in economic sciences with Fischer Black and Myron Scholes for their options pricing model) to market was introduced last week when Standard & Poor’s announced the debut of a news series of indices called STRIDE.

“Our mission is to help validate Merton’s idea, and to help create a new space in the asset management industry,” said Philip Murphy, vice president at S&P Dow Jones Indices told RIJ last week. “We see the index as an appropriate benchmark for transition from wealth accumulation to income.” 

STRIDE stands for Shift To Retirement Income and DEcumulation. As the name suggests, it carries Merton’s belief (and he is hardly alone in thinking so) that defined contribution plan participants need to change their current focus on asset growth and concentrate on funding their post-retirement liabilities by adopting a less risky LDI (liability-driven investing) strategy.STRIDE GlidePath

The STRIDE Index is designed to map that shift and provide a tool for implementing it. As a retirement readiness metric, it bridges the path from accumulation to decumulation by periodically calculating (based on current interest rates) the present cost of $1 of lifetime income from age 65 until age 95. Applying that to participants’ current account balances, the index can show whether they are on track to fund their future income liability.

STRIDE is also a template for a new series of target-date funds for defined contribution plans. Each fund’s glide path would start at age 25 with a 95% allocation to global equities and 5% to global bonds. At age 45 it would start gliding toward TIPS, reaching a 75% TIPS allocation at age 65. By age 90, the fund would hold 95% TIPS and 5% global equities. 

There’s one more aspect to STRIDE: In the post-retirement stage, the program calculates an annual sustainable monthly payout. “Starting in January each year, the strategy determines the amount of TIPS assets for the year to divest (rebalance out of the Index) in order to provide hypothetical income streams for the cohorts currently in the decumulation phase,” a research brief from S&P Dow Jones Indices said.

When you’re trying to interest asset managers in a new investment idea, it always helps to provide a metric for it, and an index does exactly that, Murphy said. “The culture within the asset management industry is sensitive to performance measures,” he told RIJ. “For any subcategory of investments you typically have one single benchmark that’s most popular.

Although DFA has its own TDFs, with their own specific holdings, the STRIDE Index is meant to allow other asset managers to build their own TDFs along the same lines, but with their own investment choices.  “The underlying strategies behind the index and Dimensional’s TDFs are similar but distinct. The benchmark is run independently of DFA funds. We are creating a space where other asset managers can apply their funds to the strategy,” said Murphy (at left).

Philip MurphyIf the Index becomes popular, DFA and S&P both earn licensing fees. “There’s nothing exclusive about the relationship, we’re not pushing any particular products,” he added. “We consider it to be a revenue sharing relationship. We will both benefit from it. They suggested it but we think it’s a good idea. We’re very excited about it.”

The Dimensional 2015 TDF (for those retiring last year) currently holds 75% TIPS and 25% global equities, including shares of almost 1,000 different companies, none of which represents more than 0.45% of the total. The top 10 companies are Apple, Microsoft, Exxon Mobil, Amazon, Johnson & Johnson, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan Chase, General Electric, Berkshire Hathaway and AT&T.  

STRIDE resembles another existing product: BlackRock’s CoRI Retirement Index. It too calculates the fluctuating price of $1 of lifetime income. People saving for retirement can use that number, plus their desired income in retirement, to see how close or far they are from having enough savings to retire on. They can also invest in BlackRock’s CoRI Funds, which track the index.

According to the CoRI website, “The CoRI Retirement Indexes (“CoRI Indexes”) are a series of real-time, age-based indexes designed to help Americans measure retirement readiness and plan for future income goals. Each CoRI Index provides a daily ‘level’ that can be used to estimate, as early as 10 years before retirement, how much annual lifetime retirement income your current retirement savings could generate.”

The CoRI 2015 Fund, which has a 58% allocation to U.S. Treasuries, isn’t quite as conservative as the Dimensional 2015 Fund. Its major stock holdings (Verizon, JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, General Electric, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and AT&T) appear to weight financial stocks more than DFA does.

© 2016 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Comment: Oracle and Others Sued by Schlichter

In this post, we will address all of the recent lawsuits filed by Schlichter, Bogard & Denton, the 800-pound Gorilla in this space. The most recent was filed last week against Oracle. The case against Anthem has received a lot of attention. But one that has slipped through the cracks a bit is against Reliance Trust and one its clients.

This case may the first of its kind on this scale to go after an outsourced fiduciary who is not related to the plan sponsor. Finally, the case against BB&T will be familiar to readers as involving claims of a provider’s own in-house plan.

Troudt v. Oracle Corp.

On January 22, 2016, an excessive fee lawsuit was filed against Oracle Corp., a Fortune 100 company based in Redwood City, California. Troudt v. Oracle Corp. was filed in the District of Colorado and alleges that the plan’s fiduciaries allowed excessive recordkeeping fees to be paid to Fidelity.

The complaint alleges that Oracle allowed Fidelity to be paid between $68 to $140 per participant rather than a reasonable per head fee of $25. The plan’s participant count increased from 38,000 in 2009 to about 60,000 today. Over that same time period, the plan’s assets increased from $3.6 billion to over $11 billion.

The complaint also alleges that the following funds underperformed and should not have been selected:

  • The Artisan Small Cap Value Fund
  • PIMCO Inflation Response Multi-Asset Fund
  • TCM Small-Mid Cap Growth Fund

This is not the first time a major client of Fidelity has been sued, which includes cases such as Tussey v. ABB and previously dismissed lawsuits against John Deere, Exelon, and Unisys. Notably missing from the lawsuit are allegations that cheaper share classes were available but not used, as is alleged in the lawsuit below.

Bell v. Anthem

On December 29, 2015, an ERISA lawsuit was filed against Anthem Inc. in the Southern District of Indiana federal court.  This is the first time, to our knowledge, that a plan sponsor has been sued on this scale where Vanguard has been the recordkeeper and their funds have made up the lion’s share of the core options available.

The allegations in the complaint included:

  • The plan’s fiduciaries caused Vanguard to be paid excessive recordkeeping fees. Not until 2013 were more expensive share classes of the plan’s funds replaced with cheaper alternatives. This reduced the recordkeeping fees paid to Vanguard through the revenue sharing generated from the funds.
  • Cheaper share classes were available much earlier than selected, even as far back as the late 1990s. This failure caused $18 million in losses to the plan.
  • Artisan Mid Cap Value Fund and the Touchstone Sands Capital Growth Fund were imprudently included in the plan because they were excessively prices as compared to similar Vanguard funds, in addition to more expensive share classes being used until 2013.
  • Failed to use separate accounts for these two funds and collective trusts for the Vanguard target date funds in the plan instead of mutual funds and that this changes would have resulted in less fees paid by participants.

The excessive recordkeeping fees alleged by plaintiffs was between $80 and $94 per participant until 2013 when Anthem negotiated a flat per head fee of $42. This is based on a plan that had between $3.3 and $5.1 billion during the time period in question in the lawsuit.

The plaintiffs also allege that the $42 is too much and was excessive by at least 40%. Finally, the complaint alleges that the plan should have included a stable value fund instead of a money market fund.

Pledger v. Reliance Trust

On December 22, 2015, Pledger v. Reliance Trust Company was filed in the Northern District of Georgia federal court. The issues raised in this complaint are unique to this case and should be carefully studied by any service provider offering outsourced 3(21), 3(38), or 3(16) services.

The lawsuit was filed by participants in a plan sponsored by Insperity Inc., a professional employer organization (“PEO”). As a PEO, Insperity provides outsourced human resources and business solutions to small and medium sizes businesses. Typically, these outsourced employees are co-employed by Insperity as well as the client business. They become part of a 401(k) plan sponsored and administered by Insperity rather than the client company.

The plaintiffs claim that:

  • Insperity used the plan’s asset to seed a 401(k) recordkeeping business it started to supplement its core business functions. Previously the plan was with another industry recordkeeper. After Insperity started its recordkeeping division, the plaintiffs claim the plan was moved to it without a competitive bidding process.
  • The plan’s $1.9 billion in assets represented 95% of Insperity’s recordkeeping assets. It is also worth noting that Insperity had a different plan for its corporate workforce and that it was also recordkept by Insperity.
  • Insperity derived excessive compensation from the recordkeeping activities and that Reliance Trust Company, also a defendant, was part of the scheme. It alleges that Reliance was hired as the plan’s 3(38) fiduciary investment manager as well as a discretionary trustee.
  • Insperity received between $119 and $142 per participant per year in recordkeeping fees.
  • The more expensive share classes of the Reliance collectives were selected to generate additional revenue sharing to benefit Insperity. They also claim the target date funds had terrible performance that caused losses to the plan of between $41 million and $56 million.
  • Reliance selected “untested” and “newly-established” target date funds it managed as collective trusts. Plaintiffs claim that Reliance was charged a sliding scale for managing these assets.

Essentially, the plaintiffs accuse Insperity and Reliance of a quid pro quo that allowed Reliance to pick its own investments for the plan, such as the target date funds selected, which then allowed Reliance to select funds that generated excessive revenue sharing that went to Insperity. 

It’s unclear from the complaint if Insperity selected the collective trusts and simply hired Reliance as an investment manager or whether all investment decisions were outsourced to Reliance and it then selected its own products for inclusion. The plaintiffs claim it is the latter.

In what may be the most troublesome allegation in the complaint, plaintiffs claim that the Insperity corporate plan, which had only $208 million in assets, had the same investment lineup but used cheaper share classes than the $2 billion plan in six instances. They also claim that the corporate plan was offered a stable value fund where the plan for the outsourced employees was not, in violation of ERISA.

Smith v. BB&T

On October 8, 2015, current and former employees of BB&T Corporation filed a lawsuit in the Middle District of North Carolina federal court alleging self-dealing by BB&T with regard to its own in-house 401(k) plan.

Plaintiffs allege that BB&T has benefited at the expense of plan participants by using BB&T’s own funds which also include those managed by its wholly owned subsidiary Sterling Capital Management. The plan is alleged to currently have about $2.93 billion in plan assets.

According to plaintiffs, until 2009, the plan only had BB&T mutual funds, but since then non-proprietary funds have been added. BB&T has also been the plan’s recordkeeper in addition to the primary asset manager of the plan.

Plaintiffs allege that through this setup, BB&T profited at the expense of the plan’s participants by allowing the plan to generate excessive revenue sharing which went to BB&T and not engaging in an arm’s length RFP process to find a different recordkeeper.

Like other lawsuits filed by the Schlichter firm, they claim these funds are also imprudent when compared to a lineup of Vanguard fund or if separate account or collective trusts had been used rather than mutual funds.

The complaint also alleges that many of the BB&T funds in the plan were poorly performing, including Sterling Capital International Fund. It also attacks the use of a BB&T money market type product rather than a stable value fund, as well as the unitized structure of the BB&T company stock fund in the plan, an issue that has been litigated in previous cases.

A separate lawsuit has been filed against BB&T by a different plaintiffs firm. That suit, Bowers v BB&T, will be litigated along with Smith v. BB&T.

Our thoughts

The cases against Oracle and Anthem do not involve allegations of self-dealing under ERISA. Such allegations have been the linchpin of trial decisions and settlements in the recent successes by the plaintiff’s ERISA bar. Instead, the claims attack the process and substance of the fiduciary decision-making by the defendants.

The cases against Reliance/Insperity and BB&T both involve allegations of self-dealing. The case against BB&T has a familiar pattern and is similar to ones previously filed against Ameriprise and Fidelity.

Pledger v. Reliance Trust may be the first case to address the common practice of outsourced investment managers using their own products/solutions as substitutes for more mainstream target date funds. This is become a more common thing to see in the form of model portfolios and collective trusts.

It will be important to pay close attention to the way in which the relationship was established by Reliance and Insperity, as there is definitely a right way to do it and a wrong way.  

Having an outsourced fiduciary provider in most instances will not stop a plan sponsor from also being sued. In Pledger v. Reliance Trust, the complaint states that Reliance was selected as the outsourced investment manager and discretionary trustee.

Yet Insperity was still sued and it is alleged that they are as much responsible for the claims involving investments as is Reliance, the outsourced fiduciary. While I understand that Insperity has its own independent claims against it, it is worth emphasizing that Insperity as the plan sponsor still needs to fight its way out of this lawsuit, like any other plan sponsor who might get sued would.

While a plan sponsor in another situation, or Insperity here, may be able to show that all responsibility over investments was that of the outsourced fiduciary, the time and expense of defending a lawsuit is very real and many times may be more or as much as the ultimate damages that a court could find against them.

The ultimate conclusion here is that, for a plan sponsor, outsourcing a fiduciary role to a service provider is not a total insulation from risk. And this lawsuit provides a nice example of that. Instead, there should be other valid reasons (of which there are many) for outsourcing fiduciary roles to service providers.

© 2016 FRAplantools.com 

Legal Defenses

The Department of Labor’s proposed fiduciary rule is well-intended: the government wants to protect the millions of inexperienced investors who are rolling money from 401(k) plans to IRAs from exploitation by self-interested brokers and agents.

But, unless amended, the rule would also expose brokers and their firms to new legal liabilities, in the form of tougher arbitration hearings or perhaps an expensive wave of litigation in federal courts.    

It’s not clear if the DOL intended to terrorize broker-dealers with its proposal. But by explicitly granting investors new rights to sue advisors, it has. Greater legal liability isn’t the only possible consequence of the rule that worries advisors—they also fear costly IT overhauls and a chill on sales of commissioned products—but it’s high on the list.

Their fears are not unrealistic. Broker-dealers have seen what happened in the 401(k) space, where St. Louis plaintiffs’ attorney Jerry Schlichter has won a series of big-ticket damage awards against 401(k) plan providers and sponsors for breaching their fiduciary duties to plan participants. The same, they fear, could happen to them and their businesses.

Here’s the twist that really bugs the industry: The DOL will rely on plaintiffs’ attorneys to enforce the rule by using it in federal class action suits against broker-dealers. Labor can regulate 401(k) and IRA advice, but it can’t enforce the rules it issues (only the IRS can).

Efforts to derail the rule so far haven’t worked. Bills filed by industry-friendly legislators (two more were marked up this week by the House Committee on Education and the Workforce) have gotten nowhere, and face a sure presidential veto if they did. A Trump or Cruz victory in November would certainly kill the rule, but no one seems to bank on it. The DOL itself might yet soften the wording of rule and make it less disruptive for the industry. But hopes for that are waning.

One defensive option is left: Sue the DOL and ask the U.S. District Court of Appeals to block the rule. This strategy worked when the indexed annuity industry sued the SEC and got Rule 151A annulled in 2010, and some think it could work again. (“Remember, 151A was a promulgated rule before we defeated it,” boasted the fixed indexed group, Americans for Annuity Protection, in a January 11 e-mail blast.) 

To learn more about a possible lawsuit, RIJ consulted several pension and securities law attorneys: Bruce Ashton of Drinker Biddle & Reath, Mercer Bullard of the University of Mississippi School of Law and PlanCorp, Tom Clark of Wagner Law Group, and Steve Saxon of Groom Law Group. Here are our questions and their answers.

A legal challenge? On what grounds?

There are hints that a financial industry trade group might file a lawsuit against the DOL this year if, as expected, the final rule still contains the Best Interest Contract Exemption. The BIC or BICE requires advisors to IRA owners to promise to act solely in their client’s best interests. It’s the same “fiduciary” standard that advisors to pensions and defined contribution plans have to meet.   

Steve Saxon of the Groom Law Group in Washington, D.C., which represents industry clients, described a lawsuit as possible. “Generally speaking, and focusing just on various segments of the retirement services industry, there’s a possibility that litigation will be brought. That’s an arrow in the quiver that people are considering.”

He’s not alone. “The going thought is that a lawsuit is a long shot, but certain people are gung ho about it,” said Tom Clark of the Boston-based Wagner Law Group and a blogger at Fraplantools.com.

Financial services firms might feel they have nothing to lose by creating a drawn-out legal battle, Clark said. “The industry might see the upside to a quagmire,” he said, “and file even though they can’t win it.” Bruce Ashton (right) of Drinker Biddle & Reath agreed that “a challenge of the DOL’s authority with respect to ‘regulating’ IRAs seems fairly likely.”Bruce Ashton

What would be the grounds for such a lawsuit? Clark thinks that industry lawyers might accuse the DOL of violating protocol—in effect, to try to win on a technicality. They would question not what the DOL did, but how it did it. 

“If there’s a lawsuit, it would be a challenge that the DOL overstepped their regulatory bounds and messed up the rulemaking,” he told RIJ. “They can’t do it on substance; that would involve a bigger uphill battle than a challenge on procedure.”

Saxon speculated that a suit might charge that the DOL made the definition of “an investment advice fiduciary” too broad. “It would allege that the department went too far and that their definition of a fiduciary is not supported by the statute or any other authority,” he said.

“Secondly, it would say that the BIC exemption is an application of Title 1 of ERISA—in the fiduciary duty rules under Section 404—to IRAs,” he added. “Congress made a decision, when it enacted ERISA [in 1974], not to do that. But the way in which the conditions of the BIC exemption work, that’s where we end up. You could add that having the remedy [to a violation of the rule] be a class action lawsuit is problematic as well.”

Says Bullard: “The first thing they did was to change the definition of a fiduciary. They are making more people subject to the prohibited transaction rules, and they are also extending the duty of loyalty to IRAs, which wasn’t true before. That will be the primary focus of legal challenges to the rule, because Congress decided not to apply that duty, which is just a basic prudence standard, to IRAs.

Concerns about the “Best Interest Contract”  

Neither 401(k) plans or IRAs—let alone the possibility that the rollover IRA would become the largest single repository of retirement savings in the U.S., as they are today—were contemplated when ERISA was enacted.

Section 404 of Title I of ERISA gives the DOL authority over advisor conduct in employer-sponsored retirement plans like 401(k)s. But, as Saxon noted, the law says nothing about DOL jurisdiction over advisor conduct with respect to individual IRAs.  

The “Best Interest Contract Exemption” would span the gap. It enables the DOL to exercising authority over IRA advisors without amending ERISA. If advisors want to sell products to IRA owners and receive third-party commissions from product manufacturers, they will commit a “prohibited transaction”—a punishable offense—unless they and their clients have signed the BIC and they have sworn to act in the sole interest of their clients, just as pension advisors do.

This puts brokers (or at least those brokers who mix the role of advisor with the role of sales agent) in an untenable position. They cannot safely take that oath, because, in the normal course of their jobs, they sometimes act in their own best interests. On the other hand, if they don’t sign BIC contracts, they will commit a crime every time they sell a product and accept a third-party commission.  

Steve Saxon“Right now, IRAs are not subject to Title I of ERISA,” Saxon explained. “An IRA holder can’t sue a financial institution for imprudence under ERISA. This is what this whole BIC exemption is all about. If an IRA provider is a fiduciary, and if it is were found to have failed to meet what amounts to Section 404 under ERISA—as delineated in the BIC standard, which is based on Section 404—then, if that standard isn’t satisfied, there’s no exemption and you have a prohibited transaction. It’s not actionable under ERISA, because they didn’t change [ERISA].”

That’s another twist in this tale. Even if the DOL can regulate advisor conduct with respect to IRAs, ERISA doesn’t give it the power to enforce those rules. So the proposal specifies that IRA owners who feel wronged by their advisors have recourse to the federal courts, through private class action suits. They can’t be limited to pursuing claims of misconduct in arbitration hearings, where brokers traditionally enjoy a kind of home-field advantage.

“The Department of Labor made it easier for class action lawsuits to be filed,” Saxon said. “They’ve paved the way for plaintiffs attorneys to act as substitutes for DOL. It’s a clever alternative, based on the application of a Title I-type standard of conduct to an IRA sales transaction. You broaden the definition of fiduciary to capture the advice-giver as a fiduciary, then apply Section 404 to the sales transaction. My view is that [the BIC standard] went beyond 404 and created some problems. That’s a key point in evaluating where we end up.”   

Ashton told RIJ: “The BICE is structured as it is to create a private right of action for IRA holders that doesn’t now exist, since there really isn’t an effective enforcement mechanism. The prohibition against interfering with the right to participate in a class action is in there for the same reason.”

“On the one hand, ERISA has the ‘duty of loyalty’ provision,” noted Bullard. “It applies only to advisors to retirement plans. On the other hand there is a set of ‘prohibited transaction’ rules that apply to advisors to IRAs and to retirement plans. The latter apply to IRAs and retirement funds, but the duty of loyalty applies only to retirement plans. “[The BIC] is a clever way to apply that duty to IRAs,” he added. Mercer Bullard

“They not only applied the [duty of prudence and loyalty] standard, which becomes actionable by government, they also made it privately actionable. There’s no private access under ERISA, but the contract will give you private right of action through breach of contract.”

As Clark put it, “For the rule to have teeth, [it requires the participation of the plaintiff’s bar]. That’s the linchpin.” Of course, teeth for one adversary is a bite for the other.

If challenged, would the rule be stayed?

“It’s complicated,” Saxon said. “Is there a federal judge who would be willing to stay the implementation of the effective date of the regulations? Or would the federal courts say that the US Department of Labor has the right to move forward with the finalization of the regulation and the exemptions?”

If the case went to the US Supreme Court, Saxon said, “The question would be ‘How long would that take and, in the meantime, would those of us in the retirement services space have to comply and deal with the terms of the regulation and the exemption’?

Bullard doesn’t think the case is likely to go to the US Supreme Court, which hears only a small percentage of cases. While there is a lower federal court in Washington, “This will be decided by the US District Court of Appeals, DC circuit, and the three-judge panel would probably stay the rule,” he said. “If you got a Republican panel, it would definitely be stayed. That’s because the rule would revolutionize the way [the broker-dealer systems work]. So, if there’s any risk of it not being legal, the smart thing would be not to go down that road in the first place. Once the industry implemented the necessary changes, it would be too expensive to go back.”

But that wouldn’t necessarily kill the rule, Bullard added. The DOL would likely appeal the initial panel’s decision to all 11 judges of the DC circuit, where there’s currently a seven-to-four Democratic majority, which would be more likely to uphold the rule. “But if a Republican gets elected president in the November, the rule is dead,” Bullard told RIJ.

The future

Without a Republican victory next fall, the lawyers who spoke with RIJ were doubtful that the brokerage industry could defeat the fiduciary rule.

Tom Clark“Based on the law challenging an agency’s ability to make rules, the law creates an uphill battle for challengers. Against that backdrop, it’s fair to say they will have an uphill battle,” said Clark (left).

“I’d be very surprised if a lawsuit in this area would get very far,” Ashton said. “The DOL clearly has the authority to grant class exemptions and to structure the conditions for those exemptions that deal with both plans and IRAs. I also suspect that courts will find that they have the authority to regulate rollovers, since the assets are plan assets before they are rolled over. My suspicion is that DOL has vetted their legal authority pretty well. There will likely be lawsuits but I doubt very much whether they will be successful.”

There’s still a possibility that the DOL will change the language of the rule to make it less disruptive of the current brokerage business model, which relies on the flow of commissions from product manufacturers to advisors and allows advisors to manage their acknowledged conflicts-of-interest as they see fit.

For instance, the DOL could delete the section of the proposal that forces commission-paid sellers of variable annuities—but not other annuities—to take the BIC oath. Under current law, so-called “Prohibited Transaction Exemption 84-24” allows all annuity sellers to take commissions when selling to people with retirement accounts.

“The DOL could keep Prohibited Transaction Exemption 84-24 the way it is now. They could move all annuity transactions to PTE 84-24, or they could move all of them to the BIC. But no one really knows what might happen next,” Saxon said.

“If anyone is telling you that they know what’s been happening at the Department of Labor since September 24, when the last comment period ended, that would not be reliable,” he said. “Even inside the government, things are still fluid, and they will be fluid until the regulation is finalized. In the meantime, they are not meeting with us or discussing anything with us.”

Assuming that the final rule won’t be different from the proposal, Bullard believes its biggest impact will be to empower clients in arbitration disputes with advisors, not to trigger a hail of class action suits against deep-pocketed brokerages. “There aren’t going to be class action suits,” he told RIJ. “No one believes there is significant class action exposure here.

“The single biggest effect will be an increased liability risk in arbitration,” he added. “Plaintiffs will be able to put the BIC contract in front of an arbitration panel and show that the advisors were fiduciaries. This will mean that you can make a fiduciary breach claim in arbitration. The plaintiff will still face the hurdle of having to prove that the advisor failed to do what a fiduciary should do. But there will be a real increase of liability risk for advisors, and basic changes to [advisor] compensation.”

Beyond that, the brokers will need to adapt their computer systems to new compensation regimes, compliance protocols and reporting requirements. “The costliest part for the financial firms will be changing all their systems. This will mean a total overhaul, Bullard said.”

The broader view

There’s a simple explanation for the complexity of all this. Gaps in the law engender ambiguities, and ambiguities get resolved in court. ERISA has big gaps. Its authors didn’t envision IRAs or 401(k)s. The line between advisors and brokers and agents has blurred over the years. Most importantly, rollover IRAs are inherently ambiguous: they are private retail accounts and government-subsidized mini-pension funds at the same time.

Such ambiguities provide plenty of grist for the legal mills. But it’s important to remember that the legal battle is just a sideshow to the main issue. At stake here is the $7 trillion rollover IRA market. The question is whether broker-dealers and other intermediaries will be able to serve—or exploit, in the Obama administration’s skeptical view—that rich market in the manner to which they are accustomed.   

© 2016 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Betterment Wants to Build a Better 401(k)

Grandly declaring that the “the era of expensive, impersonal, unguided retirement saving is over,” Jon Stein, the CEO of Betterment, announced yesterday that his New York-based, venture-cap-backed robo-advice company has officially entered the 401(k) business as a full-service small plan provider.  

In recent years, several Internet start-ups like Ubiquity and blooom have tried to build low-cost turnkey 401(k) plans for the tens of thousands of small companies in the U.S. that either have high-cost broker-sold retirement plans or no savings plans at all. Success has been elusive.

As a result, the percentage of full-time U.S. workers without a savings plan at work has remained stuck at about 50%. California and other states have taken steps to fill the vacuum with public defined contribution options, and the Obama administration has urged small employers to offer its “MyRA” workplace IRA. But none of those initiatives has momentum yet.

Now Betterment has stepped into the batter’s box. It puts new participants in managed accounts made up of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), assigning them asset allocations based on their Social Security full retirement ages. The all-in costs are similar to the costs that large plans enjoy: as little as 10 basis points for plans with the most assets under management and up to 60 basis points for plans with the least. (A 30-basis point expense ratio, for instance, generates revenue of $30,000 per $10 million in AUM.)

The 401(k) business is the newest of Betterment’s three business lines. The others are its retail robo-advice business, with 130,000 online customers and $3.2 billion in ETF assets under management, and Betterment Institutional, a version of the Betterment retail platform that advisors can license and brand as their own customer-facing digital advisory channel.      

Betterment says it already has about 50 401(k) customers. One of the first was Boxed, a privately-held 80-employee firm whose HR director, Elena Krieger, describes it as a “mobile-first e-commerce” company. Founded in 2013, it takes phone-mediated orders for Costco-sized amounts of food and household items and delivers them from its own warehouses to individuals and businesses throughout the lower 48 states. The two companies share a common investor and a fondness for digital disruption.

“There was a cultural fit between us and Betterment. That was what was interesting to Boxed from the get go,” said David Taft, vice president of communications at Boxed. Elena Krieger, the firm’s HR director, said, “Betterment had a similar philosophy. We’re both mobile-first e-commerce.” Boxed had no existing retirement plan, she said. She disagreed with the conventional wisdom that small business owners tend not to bother sponsoring retirement plans unless a highly incentivized broker shows them how much they can reduce their own taxes by doing so. 

“I would say its more common than not in companies at our stage of growth to offer a 401(k) plan now,” Krieger told RIJ. “The 401(k) is not seen only as a management enrichment tool. The people we hire are asking us, ‘Where’s the 401(k)?”

Homegrown recordkeeping 

One of the most difficult aspects of offering a 401(k) plan is the recordkeeping function. The recordkeeper accepts transaction requests, processes and allocates contributions and updates participant records when transactions are settled. It’s a complex, low-margin business that has seen rapid consolidation in recent years, with firms like JP Morgan and New York Life selling their recordkeeping businesses to Great-West and Manulife, respectively. 

Recordkeeping grows in complexity when a plan uses revenue-sharing, which bundles the all of the costs of a plan into the expense ratios of the funds. In such cases, the recordkeeper must keep track of “how much money [the plan] keeps and how much money [the fund managers] keep,” said Tom Clark, an ERISA attorney at the Wagner Law Firm who serves on Betterment’s advisory board. Tom Clark

Recordkeepers often find themselves doing that for a multitude of plans sponsors using funds from different asset managers, whose funds may have multiple share classes, each of which might entail different payment terms. “You can imagine how complicated it can get,” Clark (right) added.

Betterment leapfrogs those complexities by not using revenue-sharing in the first place and by offering only ETFs, rather than the mutual funds whose share classes facilitate revenue-sharing. Since revenue-sharing tends to be non-transparent and introduces conflicts of interest among the various parties, no revenue-sharing means a lower likelihood of fiduciary breaches and lawsuits. 

Cynthia Loh, who runs Betterment’s 401(k) business, said that the company’s decision to use ETFs without revenue sharing made it necessary to build its own recordkeeping system. “We’d been speaking to different recordkeepers, and we found that 401(k) recordkeepers don’t support ETFs. The whole 401(k) system has been set up for mutual funds. They do it that way so companies can use revenue sharing. And there’s no incentive for them to get out of mutual funds,” she told RIJ.

“With mutual funds, you can add different share classes, and then share revenue in different ways. It’s not transparent, and you can’t do that with ETFs. The 401(k) ecosystem was built on the idea that brokers get paid, administrators get paid, and the participant suffers. You couldn’t have that scenario with ETFs. That’s not how ETFs work at all. You couldn’t have that scenario,” she added.

Cynthia LohOther 401(k) companies do offer ETFs, but almost all of them turn their ETFs into mutual funds to accommodate revenue sharing, she said. “Except for Schwab, what we’ve seen from the other recordkeepers is that they repackage the ETFs as mutual funds. They’re technologically not capable of using [pure] ETFs. So we had to build our own.” Since Betterment’s retail business already used ETFs, “we didn’t have that much more to build on top of our existing system,” Loh (at left) told RIJ.

Betterment uses about 30 of the 1,600 or so ETFs on the market. It generally selects either a Vanguard or iShares ETF as the primary investment choice for each asset class in its managed accounts. “Whatever ETF we’ve chosen for each asset class is the default purchase if a customer needs to purchase that asset class. We have secondary and tertiary tickers for tax-loss harvesting purposes (to avoid wash sales),” a Betterment spokesman said.

Plain vanilla for small plans

But by simplifying its offering, Betterment may be limiting itself to the small plan market. Small sponsors are often willing to accept a one-size-fits-all solution, but large sponsors want customized solutions, said Rob Foregger, the former Fidelity Investments executive who co-founded NextCapital Group, a digital advice provider.

NextCapital’s customers are large enough to have their own research departments that produce their own investment methodologies and their own capital market assumptions, which NextCapital converts into scalable web-based participant advice. “Betterment can afford to take a more plain-vanilla approach because they’re going after the micro market. Having said that, I have a lot of respect for Betterment and Jon Stein and I wouldn’t underestimate their long-term capabilities.”

Moving into the 401(k) space “is a logical extension of Betterment’s business model,” Foregger added. “Winning in the retail space, in the long run, requires winning in the defined contribution space. The retirement market is just too big to ignore. And the DC market is perfect for scalable advice,” he told RIJ. “The Department of Labor is also going to make digital advice the de facto solution in the coming decade. But people who think you can just take a retail robo platform and put it in the DC market are sadly mistaken.” 

Veterans of the 401(k) business agree that the small plan segment is tougher than it looks. “The movement of the money itself is getting easier,” said one executive who spent many years at a major retirement plan provider. “But then you have all the legal and regulatory requirements for changing ownership of a piece of property. The problem is that you have 300,000 small plans and they all have their peculiarities. Once you go into all the permutations, and the individual circumstances and the beneficiary designations, it gets complicated. I can show you easy cases. I can show you horror stories. But no doubt Betterment does have ‘leapfrog’ advantages.”  

© 2016 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Retirement Crisis? Not for Educated Couples

Along with the question of whether a climate crisis exists or not, the less dire question of whether a retirement crisis exists in the U.S. or not has bedeviled pension-minded academics for several years. 

The Center for Retirement Research at Boston College has a National Retirement Risk Index that puts 52% of households at risk for seeing “a drop in living standards” in retirement. The Employee Benefit Research Institute and the Investment Company Institute have said that fewer than 20% of older Americans will “run short of money” in retirement, with long-term care expenses the deciding factor for many. 

A new study from the RAND Corporation suggests that there is not as broad a crisis as some previous studies have suggested. It also confirms the fact that well-educated married couples rarely end up poor in retirement and that poorly educated single women (not widows) often do. That’s not a new development.

The study, “Measuring Economic Preparation for Retirement: Income versus Consumption,” was written by Michael D. Hurd and Susann Rohwedder of RAND and NETSPAR, Europe’s Network for Studies on Pensions, Ageing and Retirement. They looked at the shortcomings of using the Income Replacement Rate—household income immediately following retirement divided by income immediately before retirement—as a measure of retirement savings adequacy.

Instead, they used measurement techniques that they thought better reflected the availability of defined contribution plan and IRA savings (earlier measurement only looked at Social Security and pensions), that also distinguished between single people and couples in a more realistic way than did previous methods, and that focused on consumption in retirement rather than income.

Earlier methods, for instance, allowed distortions to creep in. Poorer people or singles sometimes looked better prepared for retirement than married or high-income people, but only because their pre-retirement incomes were so much lower and they had less income to replace.

Also, some earlier methods didn’t account for the economies of scale enjoyed by couples, or the fact that couples on average have three times as wealth as singles (not twice as much), or the fact that spending and consumption in retirement isn’t a direct reflection of wealth or income.  

Here’s the bottom line. Hurd and Rohwedder determined that when they used the traditional Income Replacement Rate method were used, only 35% of U.S. singles and 34% of couples would have a retirement income at least 70% of their pre-retirement income. If savings in IRAs were taken into account, those numbers would rise to 46% each. Those numbers would suggest a severe retirement crisis.

But the researcher’s “consumption-based method,” using the same data, found that 59% of single Americans and 81% of couples are prepared for retirement. When sex and educational attainment were factored in, a wider range of outcomes emerged. About 29% of single women with less than a high school education and 90.2% of married women with at least a college degree education were prepared for retirement.

In describing their methodology, Hurd and Rohwedder wrote that “[our] consumption-based measure of economic preparation, takes into account the complexities of the modern post-retirement income stream and the ultimate consequences for the retirement-to-death consumption path…

“[It] finds whether a household has, with high probability, the resources to finance a trajectory of spending from shortly following retirement until death (in the case of a single person) or until death of the surviving spouse (in the case of a couple).

“[It] accounts for uncertainty about the date of death, differential mortality, taxes, spending out of assets, marital status, and the consumption path (across time as well as persons) [as well as] heterogeneity by age, sex, marital status, education, and initial economic conditions.”

Does this study mean that Americans don’t need to worry about retirement as much as they thought they did? It would probably be wrong to read it that way. The current problem, not addressed in the study, is that Americans are entering retirement with no experience or training in how to distribute their defined contribution savings wisely over their final ten, 20 or 30 years of life, or to how to achieve their goals with the assets they have.     

© 2016 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

The Global Economy’s Marshmallow Test

The world economy is experiencing a turbulent start to 2016. Stock markets are plummeting; emerging economies are reeling in response to the sharp decline in commodities prices; refugee inflows are further destabilizing Europe; China’s growth has slowed markedly in response to a capital-flow reversal and an overvalued currency; and the US is in political paralysis. A few central bankers struggle to keep the world economy upright.

To escape this mess, four principles should guide the way. First, global economic progress depends on high global saving and investment. Second, saving and investment flows should be viewed as global, not national. Third, full employment depends on high investment rates that match high saving rates. Fourth, high private investments by business depend on high public investments in infrastructure and human capital. Let’s consider each.

First, our global goal should be economic progress, meaning better living conditions worldwide. Indeed, that goal has been enshrined in the new Sustainable Development Goals adopted last September by all 193 members of the United Nations. Progress depends on a high rate of global investment: building the skills, technology, and physical capital stock to propel standards of living higher. In economic development, as in life, there’s no free lunch: Without high rates of investment in know-how, skills, machinery, and sustainable infrastructure, productivity tends to decline (mainly through depreciation), dragging down living standards.

High investment rates in turn depend on high saving rates. A famous psychological experiment found that young children who could resist the immediate temptation to eat a marshmallow, and thereby gain two marshmallows in the future, were likelier to thrive as adults than those who couldn’t. Likewise, societies that defer instant consumption in order to save and invest for the future will enjoy higher future incomes and greater retirement security. (When American economists advise China to boost consumption and cut saving, they are merely peddling the bad habits of American culture, which saves and invests far too little for America’s future.)

Second, saving and investment flows are global. A country such as China, with a high saving rate that exceeds local investment needs, can support investment in other parts of the world that save less, notably low-income Africa and Asia. China’s population is aging rapidly, and Chinese households are saving for retirement. The Chinese know that their household financial assets, rather than numerous children or government social security, will be the main source of their financial security. Low-income Africa and Asia, on the other hand, are both capital-poor and very young. They can borrow from China’s high savers to finance a massive and rapid build-up of education, skills, and infrastructure to underpin their own future economic prosperity.

Third, a high global saving rate does not automatically translate into a high investment rate; unless properly directed, it can cause underspending and unemployment instead. Money put into banks and other financial intermediaries (such as pension and insurance funds) can finance productive activities or short-term speculation (for example, consumer loans and real estate). Great bankers of the past like J.P. Morgan built industries like rail and steel. Today’s money managers, by contrast, tend to resemble gamblers or even fraudsters like Charles Ponzi.

Fourth, today’s investments with high social returns – such as low-carbon energy, smart power grids for cities, and information-based health systems – depend on public-private partnerships, in which public investment and public policies help to spur private investment. This has long been the case: Railroad networks, aviation, automobiles, semiconductors, satellites, GPS, hydraulic fracturing, nuclear power, genomics, and the Internet would not exist but for such partnerships (typically, but not only, starting with the military).

Our global problem today is that the world’s financial intermediaries are not properly steering long-term saving into long-term investments. The problem is compounded by the fact that most governments (the US is a stark case) are chronically underinvesting in long-term education, skill training, and infrastructure. Private investment is falling short mainly because of the shortfall of complementary public investment. Shortsighted macroeconomists say the world is under-consuming; in fact, it is underinvesting.

The result is inadequate global demand (global investments falling short of global saving at full employment) and highly volatile short-term capital flows to finance consumption and real estate. Such short-term flows are subject to abrupt reversals of size and direction. The 1997 Asian financial crisis followed a sudden stop of capital inflows to Asia, and global short-term lending suddenly dried up after Lehman Brothers collapsed in September 2008, causing the Great Recession. Now China is facing the same problem, with inflows having abruptly given way to outflows.

The mainstream macroeconomic advice to China – boost domestic consumption and overvalue the renminbi to cut exports – fails the marshmallow test. It encourages overconsumption, underinvestment, and rising unemployment in a rapidly aging society, and in a world that can make tremendous use of China’s high saving and industrial capacity.

The right policy is to channel China’s high saving to increased investments in infrastructure and skills in low-income Africa and Asia. China’s new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and its One Belt, One Road initiative to establish modern transport and communications links throughout the region are steps in the right direction. These programs will keep China’s factories operating at high capacity to produce the investment goods needed for rapid growth in today’s low-income countries. China’s currency should be allowed to depreciate so that China’s capital-goods exports to Africa and Asia are more affordable.

More generally, governments should expand the role of national and multilateral development banks (including the regional development banks for Asia, Africa, the Americas, and the Islamic countries) to channel long-term saving from pension funds, insurance funds, and commercial banks into long-term public and private investments in twenty-first-century industries and infrastructure. Central banks and hedge funds cannot produce long-term economic growth and financial stability. Only long-term investments, both public and private, can lift the world economy out of its current instability and slow growth.

© 2016 Project Syndicate.

$100 million for retirement pilot programs in Obama budget proposal

The management of Retirement Clearinghouse, LLC, a Charlotte-based technology company, has spent more than a year promoting automatic, electronic 401(k)-to-401(k) transfers of small account balances for job changers, for which it built, operates and markets a proprietary platform.

Efforts in that area got a presidential endorsement this week boost when President Obama unveiled his fiscal 2017 budget, which included funding for pilot programs to test “auto-portability” concepts.

The 2017 budget package “will propose a $100 million grant pilot program to determine how best to reach self-employed or those with stop-and-start work patterns, as well as a pilot program to encourage states to develop their own private-sector programs to increase access,” Pensions & Investments reported this week.

Retirement Clearinghouse said that it is not in line for any federal funding, which is expected to be directed to non-profit groups. But executives said that the pilots could raise public awareness of auto-portability and, potentially, help make it a standard feature of the defined contribution system.

By preventing the cash-outs of small accounts that often occur when plan participants change jobs, such programs could reduce “leakage” from retirement savings plans. A significant number of participants lose track of their accounts when they change jobs.

Under the Retirement Clearinghouse program, accounts worth $5,000 or less are automatically moved to a “safe harbor” (regulation-compliant) rollover IRA at Retirement Clearinghouse when participants leave a plan without taking action on their accounts. If and when the employee enrolls in another 401(k) plan, the money transfers to that plan.   

Retirement Clearinghouse is majority-owned by Robert L. Johnson, founder of Black Entertainment Television, and led by CEO Spencer Williams, a former MassMutual executive. Beginning in 2014, they have talked to officials at the Labor and Treasury Departments, legislators, industry associations, financial services companies and plan sponsors about the ability of their product to contribute to the public policy goal of reducing leakage and promoting retirement security. 

In a press release, Johnson thanked “the bicameral group of Congressional members, led by Senator Patty Murray (D-Wash.), who in November urged the Employee Benefits Security Administration to issue guidance on auto portability for employers.”

According to the release:

“Retirement Clearinghouse has been working with the Departments of Labor and Treasury, legislators on Capitol Hill, industry associations, financial services companies and plan sponsors to deliver portability solutions to large and small employer, said Spencer Williams, President and CEO of Retirement Clearinghouse.

“Beginning in 2014, Retirement Clearinghouse has been engaged in an open and collaborative dialogue with a group of the largest retirement services providers about implementing, on a national scale, a utility model which has all the elements of a cooperative structure, enabling workers to seamlessly and automatically move their 401(k) accounts from employer to employer—through a safe harbor IRA—when they change jobs. Through its experience in the field, and guided by feedback from key stakeholders, Retirement Clearinghouse has come to understand that such a structure provides the most benefit to participants, plan sponsors, retirement service providers and other stakeholders in the U.S. retirement system.

Funding for auto-portability pilot programs was one of several retirement-related efforts in the President’s proposed budget, which must be approved by the Republican-led Congress. The budget also included “new rules that would make it easier for small businesses to join together to form 401(k) retirement plans for their workers, even if the businesses are in different industries.”

© 2016 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Bank of Montreal introduces Smart Folio, a robo-advice solution

Facing competition from independent online advice startups and the approach of stronger fee disclosure requirements this summer, the Bank of Montreal has become the first of the major Canadian banks to offer a “robo-adviser.”

Called “SmartFolio,” the financial advice service, developed in-house at BMO, directs online customers to a portfolio of exchange-traded funds depending on their income, investment horizon and tolerance for risk. 

The other four big Canadian banks—Royal Bank, Toronto-Dominion, Bank of Nova Scotia and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce—are expected to develop their own robo-advice solutions, but BMO is first on the market.

The target customer for SmartFolio is someone who is ready to start investing, but not yet prepared for a full-fledged financial plan.  Prospective clients access SmartFolio through a computer, tablet or smartphone. They fill out an online questionnaire that gathers information about their investment goals, their time horizon and their tolerance for risk.

After some online explanations of volatility and the relationship between risk and reward, the client is enrolled in one of five model portfolios made up of BMO’s own exchange-traded funds, or ETFs. More options may be available in the future, according to Charyl Galpin, head of BMO Nesbitt Burns, a part of BMO Wealth Management.

Customer support is provided via live chat, email and telephone. The minimum account size for SmartFolio is $5,000 and fees are charged as a percentage of assets under management, starting at 70 basis points for the first $100,000 and gradually moving lower to 40 basis points for amounts above $500,000.

For a $5,000 account, which is the minimum to invest, the annual fee comes out to $60, according to an online calculator featured on the SmartFolio site. There may be additional management expense ratio fees on the ETFs offered.

Although BMO is touting the service as low cost, its fees are somewhat higher than those offered by some of the independent Canadian robo-advisors. There are numerous standalone robo-adviser services in the Canadian market, including WealthSimple, NestWealth and WealthBar.

Wealth Simple and WealthBar offer free accounts for those investing less than $5,000. At WealthSimple, clients whose accounts are between $5,000 and $250,000 pay 50 basis points, while WealthBar charges 60 basis points.  

The arrival of fee transparency in Canada is also driving the development of robo-advice offerings. Beginning July 15, Canada’s investment brokers and dealers will have to itemize the annual costs of the service fees, embedded commissions, and referral fees and report them to their clients.

Galpin says BMO started SmartFolio as a way to fill a “gap in the market.” She estimates the demand for online portfolio management will reach $300 billion a year in North America by 2020.

© 2016 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Better times ahead for U.S. active equity funds: Cerulli

Managers of active U.S. equity funds face negative factors in 2016—including a potential ‘risk-off’ stance in the run-up to the quadrennial election, more interest rate hikes, and the mixed blessing of high P/E ratios—but there are some positives, said Cerulli Associates in the latest issue of The Cerulli Edge – European Monthly Product Trends edition.

The prospect of a rising dollar should make U.S. equities attractive to Europeans, and investors will expect active strategies to perform better than passive funds in volatile markets, Cerulli analysts said in a release.

For instance, the S&P 500 was flat in dollar terms last year and underperformed European benchmarks. But in euro terms, it rose 20% for year ending November 30, 2015. Allianz’s Ireland-domiciled US equity fund, investing in standard names such as GE, returned 18.7% despite trailing the benchmark.

“Fed hikes may well further strengthen the dollar, making U.S. exports less competitive, which held back some companies in 2015. However, for a European investor in a US fund, there is compensation in a strong dollar, if the product is unhedged,” said Barbara Wall, Europe managing director at Cerulli.

Cerulli is bullish on the U.S. Its analysts noted that domestic investment in infrastructure would help domestically focused industrial names. “A strong U.S. economy will help to generate sustainable corporate profits, dividends, strong M&A activity, and share buyback programs,” Wall said in a release, conceding that China-inspired turmoil may see further outflows in equity funds in the early months of 2016.

Then there’s the expectation that active funds do better in difficult times. “Stock-picking may be key if investors are to realize upside, while limiting downside if the market goes as badly wrong as some fear. Firms with well-established track records, that have been selling reasonably well, can hope to make further gains, especially if the turmoil sees some fall by the wayside,” Gorman said in a release.

“The recent pullback has made many companies look considerably cheaper,” he added. He pointed to T. Rowe Price’s Luxembourg-domiciled U.S. Blue Chip equity fund and MFS Investments’ actively managed U.S. Value Fund as two steady performers. 

“U.S. equity funds with decent records of picking the right stocks can hope to sell in Europe, given the lack of alternatives. The upside potential is clear, while the better funds can mitigate the losses during the tougher times. Managers should be using established channels to extol the virtues of U.S. equity funds, as well as pushing to appear on the growing raft of self-directed platforms,” said Wall in the release.

© 2016 Cerulli Associates.

Five lessons for advisors from Vanguard CEO

Advisors shouldn’t fear but rather should take advantage of the demographic, technological and consumer-oriented regulatory factors that are roiling their industry, said Vanguard CEO Bill McNabb in an address at ETF.com’s Inside ETFs Conference in Hollywood, Fl., this week.

Vanguard’s large family of ETFs and index mutual funds, its low-cost, direct-to-consumer business model and its hybrid robo/human advice services have made it a beneficiary of current trends. According to Morningstar, Vanguard captured more fund flow in 2015 than the next nine mutual fund companies combined. 

“Financial advice is having a moment,” McNabb said in a release. “The rise of more technology-based solutions has made advice part of a national conversation in the financial press and in the popular media. The best advisors are seizing this moment to tell their story.”

McNabb offered five concepts for advisors to consider:     

We are in a low-cost revolution. Today’s investor expects to pay less for investment funds and services. Robo offerings are creating a new pricing floor. A traditional advisory firm can provide the in-person, individualized services that a robo advisor cannot. However, traditional advisors cannot hang their hat on that fact alone.

Advisors must adapt to a changing industry. Financial advice is evolving and technology is part of that evolution. Most advisors have been using financial technology tools for years. How can advisors further automate routine elements of their practice and digitize and mobilize some of the client experience?

In some ways, the world is not as complex. Investments are becoming more commoditized. Portfolio construction also is becoming commoditized. These functions can now be largely automated through model portfolios and even through target-date funds. That’s no longer a differentiated selling point for advisors.

In other ways, the world is not as simple. For most investors entering retirement, advice is the answer. And with the Baby Boom generation now entering retirement, demand for advice is great. The questions retirees face are increasingly complex.  Rules of thumb and single-product solutions rarely provide a complete answer.        

Advisors must tell their story. To differentiate themselves, advisors must explain their value proposition. http://www.vanguard.com/pdf/ISGQVAA.pdf

Vanguard has published research showing how advisors can add up to 3% in net portfolio returns over time for their clients with Vanguard Advisor’s Alpha, a wealth management framework that focuses on portfolio construction, behavioral coaching, asset location, and other relationship-oriented services.
Vanguard offers 68 low-cost ETFs in the U.S., with more than $483 billion in assets, up 13.2% from year-end 2014. The firm manages the $57.4 billion Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), the $40.4 billion Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO), and the $34.5 billion Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO).

© 2016 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

More Than a Nice Interface?

Fidelity’s office tower soars over downtown Boston, and Vanguard’s corporate campus sprawls near Malvern, Pa. Betterment, the “robo-advisor” that yearns to compete with those direct-to-investor giants, rents three post-industrial lofts in a landmark building with a white cast-iron façade on W. 23rd St. in New York.

Though still relatively small (about 130,000 clients and $3.5 billion under management) venture capital-backed Betterment has big ambitions. Its 35-year-old CEO, Jon Stein, a HarvardAB/ColumbiaMBA grad and son of Dallas urban planners, aims to disrupt the conventional financial services industry—not just at the individual level but at the advisory platform and institutional levels as well.

RIJ talked with Stein (above) for an hour recently at Betterment headquarters (below, right). The offices were open-plan, factory chic. Clusters of Millennials sat at screens on workbench-type tables under exposed ventilation ducts. No isolation-enforcing cubicles, no sound-absorbing carpets. Commuter bicycles mounted on the walls. It was lunchtime, so the bearded, tattooed chef—recruited from a posh Manhattan restaurant, Per Se—could be seen behind trays of hot shepherd’s pie at the far end of the room. 

RIJ: It seems like the Vanguard and Fidelity are more like the integrated steel mills that employed tens of thousands of people and produced millions of tons of steel, and Betterment is like the automated mini mills that came along in the 1980s. Would that be an accurate analogy? 

Stein: Ironically, we do think of ourselves as more like the vertically integrated steel mill. We are a full-stack solution. That’s our competitive advantage. We’ve rebuilt the plumbing, rebuilt the banking APIs [application programming interfaces], the trading, the recordkeeping, and the back-end infrastructure. That gives us efficiency advantages. We also have the user-experience advantages, like Apple. Because we make the products we sell, we can provide a better user-experience. So we have both. We do more than you think we do. 

RIJ: How would you describe the business you’re in?

Stein: We think of ourselves as having several businesses. One is the retail business. We have retail customers who are solicited to sign up, usually at the recommendation of a friend or family member. They tell us about their goals, and we create and manage their portfolios. That’s the retail business. We also have the institutional business. We’re selling to registered investment advisors. We have over 200 firms on the Betterment platform. That’s a white label product, with the advisor’s name on it. Schwab doesn’t offer that. TDAmeritrade doesn’t offer that. Betterment HQ in NYC

RIJ: So, a company like Envestnet would be a competitor? 

Stein: Yes, we compete with an Envestnet, or a Charles Schwab, in that space. Then we have the 401(k) business. We built the first recordkeeper that combines recordkeeping with ETFs. 

RIJ: People with experience in the 401(k) business tell me that building a recordkeeping system from scratch is sort of an IT nightmare. 

Stein: I guess I’m a glutton for punishment. Actually, recordkeeping is easier with ETFs. And the whole thing is easier because we have no legacy systems. We’ve been investing in recordkeeping on the retail side for eight years.

RIJ: But you outsource a lot of what the big fund companies do internally, right? You use APEX, for instance, for clearing and execution.

Stein: APEX doesn’t do much for us. We send trades through them.

RIJ: What functions do you do in-house?

Stein: We’re the custodian. We manage the funds. We do the accounting, the statements, the confirmations, and all the regulatory functions. We’re not outsourcing any of that. We manage the money. It sits with Betterment. It’s true that we don’t offer anything like a Vanguard Windsor II Fund [an actively-managed large-cap value fund]. We provide a simpler, streamlined solution. But it’s still end-to-end, and the advice is more sophisticated than Vanguard offers.

RIJ: OK. I had the impression that your core competency was the way you on-boarded new customers—that you applied the kind of frictionless interface that works for an Uber or an Airbnb to the investment business. You’ve got sophisticated ways of keeping track of prospects, and automated e-mail programs that nudge new clients through the enrollment and payment process. I thought that was your key distinction.

Stein: The on-boarding is just the tip of the iceberg. We make it easier to fund your account. You can fund your account same day that you open it. You can’t do that with anybody else. To make that on-boarding experience better, we have the only e-signed paperless rollovers in the industry. You can rollover from 401(k) to a Betterment IRA with an e-signature and a click. We couldn’t do those things if we hadn’t built all the plumbing ourselves.

RIJ: But it’s still true that you’re benefiting in major ways from the accomplishments of companies that went before you. If custom asset allocation hadn’t become a commodity, you wouldn’t be here.

Stein: It’s true that we couldn’t be building this business without the help of two things: The reduced cost of building information technology today, and the emergence of exchange-traded funds. Today you can get a globally diversified portfolio through an ETF, using one API—through one pipe—and you can go to any vendor [ETF manager] to get it. That’s good for us. We have access to one connection who gives us access to the whole world of ETFs, without any additional build and without any special distribution agreements. We can use iShares or Vanguard or Schwab ETFs. The money is spread out among multiple ETFs and multiple providers. With open architecture, we get the lowest costs and the most liquidity.

RIJ: Then there’s the arrival of the smartphone. That changed everything.

Stein: We now get 60% percent of our log-ins from our mobile app. What’s happening with phones is like the early stage of what happened with desktops. Everything moved to websites. Now everything’s moving to mobile.

RIJ: Let’s talk about fintech and the regulatory environment. The Secretary of Labor himself has said he welcomes the robo-advice industry and thinks it’s good for Baby Boomers who need help managing their retirement money. Some in the fintech industry have said the Department of Labor’s fiduciary proposal can only help their type of low-cost, unbiased advice. Have you personally spoken with people at the DOL about synergy between robos and regulation?

Stein: We have had meetings with policymakers and at DOL and we’ve written a letter supporting their initiative. I wouldn’t say there’s been ‘frequent’ communication between us and the Department of Labor.  I’m not a policymaker. I don’t read the proposals or the bills; I rely on smart people for that. The gist of it is that the DOL wants to simplify things. Their goal, whether you think they’re going about it in the right way or the wrong way, is that anybody who gives advice to retirement investors should have their interests well-aligned with the client’s interests. I think that’s a noble ambition. 

RIJ: Where do you think all of this is headed? The conventional wisdom is that there will be a convergence that combines robo-advice with a human touch. You already offer phone support, right?

Stein: We’ve got a dozen people answering the phones. We have customer support seven days a week, 12 hours a day. We’re recognized by Consumer Reports as having the best customer service. I think that’s a testament to the fact that we’re putting people first.

RIJ: Yes, but do you foresee combining your technology with in-house human advisors, the way Vanguard has.

Stein: I don’t see a big distinction between the human role and the role of technology. People have always used technology to give advice. I can’t imagine any investment advisor working without technology. We have advisors using our technology today. It’s a big deal for them because of our investments in a better customer experience. We don’t see ourselves as replacing human advisors. Our customers get great advice from talking to our phone team. But they also don’t have to talk to anyone if they don’t want to. I think we do a better job, even without an expensive call center.

RIJ: What about the status quo do you think isn’t working, and what are you trying to fix?

Stein: On average, Americans have a real problem with saving enough for retirement. Today, only 10% to 15% of retirement spending comes from personal savings. A third comes from Social Security. Some comes from working in retirement and the rest comes from personal savings. In the system we’ve designed, most people are at a loss for how much they should be saving. We’ve done a disservice to our population. The way we designed the 401(k) system—it’s like we said to people, ‘You can have access to any medicine you want, but there’s no doctors and no pharmacists.’

RIJ: Speaking of retirement spending, I noticed that you have a retirement income program that calculates monthly withdrawals that vary with the ups and downs of the market. But the example on the website uses a 20-year life expectancy for a hypothetical 65-year-old woman. A lot of planners are now using a 30-year life expectancy. 

Stein: Even with a 20-year timeline, we set it up so that you could live for 99 or 100 years, and even when you get there, it’s likely that you will still have significant savings left over. It’s almost too conservative. You could probably spend more than we recommend. I don’t worry about anyone who uses our method running out of money.

RIJ: What’s your exit strategy for you and your venture cap backers? Are you planning to take Betterment public?

Stein: We want to go public. That’s the ambition of the company. 

RIJ: Do you think there’s any danger that going public might hurt your relationships with your customers? The current version of the DOL’s fiduciary proposal requires advisors to act ‘solely’ in the interests of their clients. But public companies have to put the shareholder first. Do you see a potential conflict there?

Stein: Not at all. An IBM or a General Motors or an Apple couldn’t succeed if they didn’t have their customers’ interests in mind. When companies stop putting their customers first, the world punishes them. The capitalist system isn’t perfect, but it produces great things. We all rely on it.

RIJ: I was wondering where the name ‘Betterment’ came from.

Stein: The name came from an old-fashioned word for making things better. I liked the idea and liked the name. I probably heard it at home because my parents used it. They were city planners in Dallas, where I grew up, and they would talk about the ‘betterment’ of public streets. 

RIJ: What led you into finance?

Stein: I happened into financial services, and I was appalled at what I saw. I was frustrated by the products that the banks were building. I thought, ‘There’s got to be a better way.’

RIJ: You could have made millions on Wall Street, and then quit to do anything you wanted.

Stein: It’s true that I’m not making as much money as I could be right now, but I’ve got the best job in the world.

RIJ: Thank you, Jon. 

© 2016 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

The January sell-off in stocks—a delayed reaction to the Fed?

Any possibility of a causal link between the Federal Reserve’s quarter-point rate hike in mid-December and the 10.7% correction in equity markets since the start of 2016 seemed to be eliminated by the fact that equities did quite well during the last two weeks of the year.

But a Morningstar analyst remarked in a report this week that the $16.8 billion net flow into U.S. equity funds in the month of December—the most in two years—seemed to be a “cyclical phenomenon that probably has more to do with year-end rebalancing” than with optimism about equities.

Overall, equity funds experienced negative flows after two years of inflows. The exception was international-equity funds. They led all category groups in terms of highest inflows for the calendar year, collecting $207.6 billion.

Asked if year-end re-balancing might have delayed an equity sell-off until January 4,  Morningstar’s Alina Lamy told RIJ, “It is possible. The trend we’ve repeatedly observed is that managers tend to rebalance in December. The challenge they’re facing is that they rebalance in December regardless of whether market conditions are favorable or not. So it is possible that we could have seen outflows from U.S. equity funds in December were it not for the year-end rebalancing trend.”

The inflow into U.S. equities in the last month of the year also belied the fact that the S&P500 Index finished the year down 1.4%. “In general, flows tend to follow performance,” Lamy wrote in the Morningstar report, “but such a strong inflow into a category that delivered a negative return for the year seems to indicate that investors are looking more toward the future.

“With the Federal Reserve raising rates for the first time in 10 years and the European Union maintaining its quantitative-easing measures, investors seem to believe there is higher potential for growth in Europe and Asia than in the United States. The high inflow to international equity therefore appears more like an anticipatory move at this point.

“Another trend is that a large portion of flows tends to come from funds-of-funds, particularly retirement plans, target-date, and target-risk funds, and these plans have been increasing allocations to international equity. A majority of these large international-equity flows we’ve seen come through the retirement channel. Vanguard is just one example; they have been enhancing diversification for their target-date funds by increasing their international equity exposure.”

Taxable-bond funds sustained the worst outflows by category group in December, $29.0 billion, most of them driven by the high-yield category, which saw outflows of $11.2 billion for the month—the third-largest monthly outflow since 1993.

Third Avenue Management’s announcement that it would liquidate its high-yield bond fund, Third Avenue Focused Credit, without allowing investors to redeem their shares right away, along with falling oil prices, helped ignite the selling. 

With only a few exceptions, passive funds gained at the expense of active funds in December and in 2015 overall. Indeed, two of only three firms with inflows to their actively managed funds in December were passive shops—Vanguard and State Street.

Franklin Templeton suffered heavy outflows in December, with two of the firm’s fixed-income offerings among the active funds with the highest outflows. Templeton Global Bond and Franklin Income had outflows of $2.2 billion and $1.7 billion, respectively.

© 2016 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Advisors Provide Icing, But Retirees Need Cake

After a quarter-century of designing and building retirement planning software, I find myself nearing my own retirement. It’s time to ponder lessons that I have learned or failed to learn.  One thing I’ve learned, the hard way, is that most financial services companies and advisors don’t especially want to change the way they serve (or under-serve) most retirement clients, or to radically change the software they do it with.  

Lesson One. For most people, retirement planning is not about investments, taxes, estate planning, or even retirement income. It’s about other stuff. It’s about where to live, what to do, what relationships to pursue or drop, and how to solidify their legacies. It’s about focusing on what matters and, surprisingly often, it isn’t money.

True, people pursue their non-financial goals in ways that are enabled or constrained by money. So if advisors weren’t engaged in the financial minutiae of retirement planning, we’d miss important details. But in most cases those details are secondary or even irrelevant. 

And we can’t work magic. Most people, when they retire, already hold all the cards they can ever play. The present value of their net worth and their probable future income streams are more or less determined. We can advise them to add risk or exercise more caution at certain times, but the success of those strategies depends on what cards their opponent (i.e., Fate) plays. There are no guarantees, just probabilities.

Lesson Two. Most of the advice our industry offers won’t help people who are already headed for financial trouble. They need to add to the value of their financial resources, relative to expected expenses. Moving money around won’t do that reliably. Often it just adds risk and strengthens Fate’s hand.

Most retirees can improve their financial situation in only two ways: By working more and/or slashing expenses. That is the unappetizing two-layer cake upon which our fancy planning serves merely as icing. The icing has value, but the millions of people who are approaching retirement need to find more cake or go on a diet.

Lesson Three. There’s no market for the kind of planning software that would address this problem.

In 1991, I began imagining software that could give people exactly what they need. It would deal with every financial issue retirees face, with particular emphasis on those with the biggest impact. It would deal with these issues in an integrated way and produce a coherent plan. The software would support complexity, but be simple to use.   

Fifteen years later, I had a prototype and took it on the road. But the big financial services companies didn’t want it. The software either required actual cooperation among their silos, or they didn’t offer all the same products and services that the software encompassed.   

Financial advisors didn’t want to deal with it either, it turned out. The software either did too much for them, they said, or it operated in unfamiliar ways, or required new workflows. I believed in it because it worked for my clients and myself. But the product’s success began and ended there. 

Employers, plan sponsors or other organizations weren’t seriously interested either. A few considered licensing it, but they were reluctant to endorse (and be held liable for) what they didn’t understand. And they didn’t understand it.

Finally, I began offering it to individuals. Many of them have liked the software, and some have renewed it year after year to keep their plans on track. But without a campaign to drive consumer awareness—an effort that only big companies like Apple can afford—I couldn’t generate enough demand.

The Bottom Line. Naturally, it bothers me that my small company reaped only thousands of dollars in sales after spending millions on product development. But my frustration runs deeper than that. Fifteen years ago, I was certain that, if given the right software, the retirement industry would embrace it, and use it to address the non-investment needs of the mass market. In other words, I believed the industry would change. Since 2007, I’ve learned why software like mine hasn’t been widely adopted. The industry, for reasons of its own, has little desire to change.   

© 2016 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.  

Fed to roll over Treasuries as they mature

About $216 billion in U.S. Treasury securities will mature in 2016, but according to a speech this week by New York Fed president William C. Dudley, the Federal Reserve will roll them over rather than let its $2.4 trillion inventory of Treasuries shrink.

The reinvestment policy is designed to be interest-rate neutral. While the Fed won’t increase its overall Treasury holdings, it will still be acting as a buyer of Treasuries, thus maintaining demand, establishing a desired price floor and preventing upward pressure on yields. 

Addressing the Economic Leadership Forum in Somerset, NJ, last Sunday, Dudley said:

“As we noted in the December FOMC statement, we anticipate that we will continue reinvestment ‘until normalization of the federal funds rate is well underway.’

“I think this policy makes sense not only because the decision to end reinvestment will represent a further tightening of monetary policy, but also because it is difficult to assess ahead of time the impact of such a decision on financial market conditions given the lack of historical experience.

“I also believe that continuing reinvestment until the federal funds rate reaches a higher level makes sense. We want to ensure that we have the ability to respond to adverse shocks by easing monetary policy by lowering the policy rate. Having more ‘dry powder’ in the form of higher short-term interest rates seems more desirable than less dry powder and a smaller balance sheet.

“My view is that we should not set a numerical tripwire for ending reinvestment. If the economy were growing very quickly and the risks of an early return to the zero lower bound for the federal funds rate were deemed to be low, then I could see ending reinvestment at a relatively low federal funds rate.

“In contrast, if the economy lacked forward momentum and the risks of a return to the zero lower bound were judged to be considerably higher, I would want to continue reinvestment until the federal funds rate was higher.  

“In my view, good monetary policy-making requires ongoing assessment and judgment, not the adherence to mechanical rules. I know market participants desire certainty, but in the uncertain world in which we live, that desire is not consistent with the policy that would best achieve our objectives.”

© 2016 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Danish bank offers retail robo-investing in ETF portfolios

A Danish financial institution, Saxo Bank, has launched what it calls a “large-scale, truly digital investment solution for retail investors.” The web-based service is called SaxoSelect and offers three prefab portfolios built with iShares ETFs from BlackRock.

Saxo Bank clients can choose between a Defensive, Moderate, or Aggressive ETF portfolio. The portfolios are managed by Saxo Bank and are available in selected currencies—initially euros and sterling—and charge an all-in service fee of 90 basis points per year.

“Technology will profoundly change the asset management industry,” said Saxo Bank CEO Kim Fournais, in a press release. “Access to technology, demand for transparency, and focus on performance will change the way individuals manage their savings.”

“The growth of the European ETF market shows no sign of abating, but it is paramount that these tools are delivered to investors in a way that complements their digital habits,” said Michael Gruener, co-head of iShares EMEA Sales at BlackRock.

The Saxo Bank Group is an online, multi-asset trading and investment specialist offering trading and investment technologies, tools and strategies. Founded in 1992 and headquartered in Copenhagen, Saxo employs 1,450 people in 26 offices in five continents.

At December 31, 2015, BlackRock’s AUM was $4.645 trillion, including more than $1 trillion in over 700 iShares funds. The firm has about 13,000 employees in over 30 countries and a presence in North America, South America, Europe, Asia, Australia, the Middle East and Africa.   

© 2016 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Bank annuity sales dip 2.5% in first three-quarters of 2015

Income earned from the sale of annuities at bank holding companies (BHCs) amounted to $2.62 billion in the first three quarters of 2015, down 2.5% from the $2.69 billion in the first three quarters of 2014, according to Michael White Associates (MWA), Radnor, Pa. 

Wells Fargo & Company (CA), Morgan Stanley (NY), Raymond James Financial, Inc. (FL), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NY), and Bank of America Corporation (NC) led all bank holding companies in annuity commission income. 

Third-quarter BHC annuity commissions were the sixth-best quarterly annuity commissions in history at $888.5 million. They were down 0.8% from $893.0 million in second quarter 2015, however, and down 0.3% from $888.5 million earned in third quarter 2014.

Of the 583 bank holding companies surveyed:

  • 49.1% (286) participated in annuity sales activities during the first three quarters of 2015.
  • Their $2.62 billion in annuity commissions and fees constituted 17.6% of their total mutual fund and annuity income of $14.84 billion.
  • The $2.62 billion represented 39% of total BHC insurance sales volume (i.e., the sum of annuity and insurance brokerage income) of $6.71 billion.

Of the 6,270 banks, 876 or 14.0% participated in annuity sales activities, earning $594.8 million in annuity commissions or 22.7% of the banking industry’s total annuity fee income. Bank annuity production was down 2.5% from $644.4 million in the first three quarters of 2014.

Top 10 Bank Holding Companies in Annuity Sales

“Of 286 large top-tier BHCs reporting annuity fee income in the first nine months of 2015, 180 or 62.9% were on track to earn at least $250,000 this year,” said Michael White, president of MWA and author of the study, in a release. Of those 180, 81 BHCs or 45.0% achieved double-digit growth in annuity fee income.

“That’s a 7.2-point decrease from the same period of 2014, when 93 institutions or 52.2% of 178 BHCs on track to earn at least $250,000 in annuity fee income achieved double-digit growth. This decreased double-digit growth in annuity revenues among large BHCs demonstrates the continued weakening of the bank annuity sector.”

Over two-thirds (68.4%) of BHCs with over $10 billion in assets earned third quarter year-to-date annuity commissions of $2.49 billion, constituting 94.8% of total annuity commissions reported. This was a decrease of 2.5% from $2.53 billion in annuity fee income in the first three quarters of 2014.

Among this asset class of largest BHCs in the first three quarters, annuity commissions made up 17.4% of their total mutual fund and annuity income of $14.35 billion and 41.2% of their total insurance sales revenue of $6.04 billion.

Banks with $1 billion to $10 billion

Banks in the next tier didn’t fare as well. With 45.2% participating in annuity sales, BHCs with assets between $1 billion and $10 billion recorded a decrease of 18.4% in annuity fee income. Sales fell to $128.9 million in the first three quarters of 2015 from $158.0 million in the first three quarters of 2014 and accounted for 19.3% of their total insurance sales income of $667.0 million.

Among BHCs with assets between $1 billion and $10 billion, leaders included:

  • Santander Bancorp (PR)
  • Stifel Financial Corp. (MO)
  • Wesbanco, Inc. (WV)
  • National Penn Bancshares, Inc. (PA)
  • First Commonwealth Financial Corporation (PA)

The smallest community banks, those with assets less than $1 billion, were used as “proxies” for the smallest BHCs, which are not required to report annuity fee income. Leaders among bank proxies for small BHCs were:

  • The Oneida Savings Bank (NY)
  • Sturgis Bank & Trust Company (MI)
  • The Security National Bank of Sioux City, Iowa (IA)
  • Bank of Springfield (IL)
  • Bank Midwest (IA)

These banks with assets with less than $1 billion generated $50.9 million in annuity commissions in the first three quarters of 2015, down 6.7% from $54.5 million in the first three quarters of 2014. Only 10.6% of banks this size engaged in annuity sales activities, which was the lowest participation rate among all asset classes.

Among these banks, annuity commissions constituted the smallest proportion (18.7%) of total insurance sales volume of $271.4 million.

Among the top 50 BHCs nationally in annuity concentration (i.e., annuity fee income as a percent of noninterest income), the median year-to-date Annuity Concentration Ratio was 5.60% at the end of third quarter 2015.

Among the top 50 small banks in annuity concentration that are serving as proxies for small BHCs, the median Annuity Concentration Ratio was 16.04% of noninterest income.

The findings are based on data from all 6,270 commercial banks, savings banks and savings associations (thrifts), and 583 large top-tier bank and savings and loan holding companies (collectively, BHCs) with consolidated assets greater than $1 billion operating on September 30, 2015. Several BHCs that are historically insurance or commercial companies have been excluded from the study.

© 2016 Michael White Associates.