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Thirteen Life and Annuity Specialists Rated ‘Successful’ by Conning

Great American, Jackson National, and Thrivent Financial were named “successful” large companies that specialize in the life insurance and annuity market in the fifth edition of a survey that Conning Research began publishing in 2004.

In the proprietary study, “Successful Individual Life-Annuity Specialists,” Conning analyzed companies active in the individual life and annuity market and divided them into four size categories based on their amount of capital and assets and their rankings of direct premium by product.

Conning singled out “successful” companies based on their operating margin, return on surplus, premium growth, and sales. Large, highly diversified, publicly-held insurers like Lincoln National, MetLife and Prudential were generally excluded from the study because they weren’t believed to have a special focus in life insurance and annuities.

The five mid-sized life and annuity specialist firms deemed successful were FBL Financial Group, Indiana Farm Bureau, Modern Woodmen of America, Symetra and USAA. The five small life and annuity specialists named in the report were Bankers Life, First Catholic Slovak Union of the U.S. and Canada, Manhattan Insurance Group, Liberty Bankers Group and Tennessee Farmers.

 “Our ongoing study of successful individual life-annuity companies continues with the 2014 edition, which for the first time includes a detailed analysis of the large company segment,” said Terence Martin, analyst at Conning, in a statement. “One overriding characteristic of these companies was the consistency in their product mix over time; they appear to have found and kept true to the optimal mix for their firm.” 

Conning divided companies active in the individual life and annuity market into four size categories based on their amount of capital and assets and their rankings of direct premium by product. Conning also identified “successful” companies based on their operating margin, return on surplus, premium growth, and sales.

Among its findings:

  • The Successful Small group had less of a dependence on single-premium sales than the Small group overall, while the Successful Large had a higher proportion of single premium.
  • Successful companies maintained a higher allocation to NAIC Category 2 bonds and had slightly higher credit leverage.
  • Using the average maturity as a rough measure of portfolio length shows the Successful Small and Successful Large companies had shorter portfolios than their corresponding overall groups.
  • Successful companies had lower investment expense ratios than their respective overall groups.
  • Successful companies in all three company size categories were found issuing policies of the same face amount, which means success can be found issuing policies of a broad range of size and does not require chasing ever-larger policies.
  • The Successful companies generally have higher distributor productivity than their corresponding groups overall. This advantage becomes more pronounced when agency expenses are included in the analysis.

“In our analysis we see a greater focus on annuities among the successful insurers than we had previously,” said Steve Webersen, director of research at Conning. “Yet no specific mix of individual life and annuities appears more conducive to success, although stability of that mix does contribute.

“Dependence on single premium products works for larger companies, which can absorb the corresponding volatility, while smaller companies are more likely to succeed if they avoid single premium products. We identified a number of other interesting findings related to geographic mix, investments, policy size and distributor productivity.”

The annual study series now analyzes ten years of data (rather than the six years in the earlier editions of the series), includes fraternal organizations, and identifies successful Small, Midsized, and Large companies, rather than identifying just Successful Small companies.

© 2014 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Skads of Data about Americans over 65

For all you demographic information junkies, the U.S. Census Bureau has dedicated its June 2014 Current Population Report to a study of Americans ages 65 and over, using data collected in 2010.  

The study, replete with charts, graphs and tables, contains data that marketers and actuaries might use: e.g., the ratio of male to female 90-somethings (about 40:100), what the rich elderly live on (mainly earnings), how many elderly smoke (9.8%) or drink to excess (9.7%), and what portion are obese (28.7%).

Here are a few other things you can learn from this document:

The housing crash hurt the nursing home business. According to the report, the Great Recession, perhaps temporarily, delayed the transition to senior housing (assisted living facilities and independent living facilities) by reducing home values. The occupancy rate at independent living facilities fell from a peak of 92.7% in the first quarter of 2007 to 87.1% in the third quarter of 2010. The occupancy rate for assisted living facilities also fell from a peak in the first quarter of 2007 (90.7%), bottoming out at 87.6% in the first quarter of 2010.   

More people are carrying mortgages into retirement. The percentage of people over 50 with a mortgage climbed over the three periods for which data is available: from 47% in 1998-2001 to 52% in 2001-2004 and to 57% in 2004-2007. Thirty-percent had recently borrowed on refinanced. The percentage of people who extracted money from their home equity rose from just 11% in the 1998-2001 period to 24% in 2004-2007. The latter period was coincidental with the housing and credit boom.

Dixie has more than its fair share of poor retirees. The deep South, emblematic of rural poverty at least since the publication of Let Us Now Praise Famous Men, James Agee and Walker Evans’ Depression-era book on sharecropper families, not surprisingly has a high concentration of states with high rates of poverty among those age 65 and older. A swath of 12 southern states, stretching from New Mexico in the West to North and South Carolina in the East, and as far north as West Virginia, all had elderly poverty rates of 9.5% or higher.

Ironically, one of the largest and wealthiest states, New York, also had above average elderly poverty rates well above average, as did California. Only a handful of states—Washington, Wyoming, Utah, Indiana, Vermont and New Hampshire had elderly poverty rates lower than 7%.

Marriage protects against hunger in old age. Married pays a handsome dividend in retirement, especially for women; that’s evident from this report, like others before it. For the general U.S. population and within ethnic groups, couples are at much lower risk of being poor in retirement than single people are. Among the entire 65+ population, only 4.1% of couples are in poverty, compared to 6.7% for single men and 13.6% for women. Single black (18.7%), Asian (16.8%) and Latino (20.3%) women have poverty rates significantly higher than single white women (11.7%). 

The “replacement rate” declines over time. When people talk about income replacement rates in retirement—70% of final pay is often cited—they seem to assume that it will stay constant throughout retirement. But the latest Census data shows that, generally, retirees’ real replacement rates fall as they age. For instance, among retirees born in the years 1931 to 1936, their median replacement rate fell from 75.5% in the first or second year of retirement to 57.7% in the ninth or tenth years. 

About one-in-four retirees makes money the old-fashioned way. If you assumed that the retirees with the highest incomes were those who saved the most, you might be surprised to learn that their advantage comes, in many cases, from the simple fact that they’re not exactly retirees. They’re still working. (Whether by choice or necessity, the report doesn’t say.) According to the Census Report, those in the 65 and older crowd who are in the highest quintile for income get, in aggregate, almost 45% of their income from earnings. About one in four people ages 65+ have earned income.

© 2014 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

To raise retirement security, ban DC cash-outs: EBRI

Unlike many other advanced countries, the U.S. has a voluntary employer-based defined contribution savings system. Under our system, people have the option to cash out their DC balances when they change jobs. And, despite the tax consequences of cashing out, many do.  

But if regulations were tweaked to eliminate the “cash-out” option, significantly more Americans would likely end up with adequate savings when they reach retirement, according to research submitted at a Congressional hearing last June 17 by the Employee Benefit Research Institute’s research director, Jack Vanderhei. 

The elimination of cash-outs during job changes would mean that 38.3% of the people in the lowest income quartile who would not otherwise have saved enough to replace 60% of their pre-retirement income in retirement would have reached that threshold when they combined their DC savings and Social Security benefit. 

Though the impact of eliminating cash-outs was weaker for higher replacement rates and higher income quartiles was not as pronounced, it was still significant. For instance, it enabled 15.6% of the people in the highest quartile who would have fallen short of a 70% replacement rate to reach it.

Eliminating cash-outs had a much bigger effect, in fact, than eliminating either loans or hardship withdrawals from DC plans, according to the data. Vanderhei used the proprietary EBRI Retirement Security Projection Model to produce the results.

The model assumed a population of workers currently ages 25 to 29 who would have more than 30 years “of simulated participation in a 401(k) plan,” who retired at age 65, and who used their DC savings to buy an inflation-adjusted life annuity at a purchase prices of $18.62 per $1 of monthly lifetime income.  

Plans were also assumed to have automatic escalation with a three percent default contribution rate and an annual increase in contributions equal to one percent of annual compensation. Employees are assumed to revert their level of contributions to the default rate when they participate in a new plan and opt-out of automatic escalation.

The EBRI findings, entitled “The Impact of Leakages on 401(k) accumulations at Retirement Age.” They were submitted at a hearing on Lifetime Participation in Plans that was held by the ERISA Advisory Council of the U.S. Department of Labor in Washington, D.C., in June.

© 2014 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.   

How does an unshackled pension fund invest? Ask Sweden’s SPK

Hungry for yield and free from a mandate to hold mainly long-dated Swedish government bonds, the Swedish pension fund SPK has begun executing a plan to diversify into foreign bonds, infrastructure and “alternative risk premia,” IPE.com reported.

The SEK24bn (€2.6bn, $3.54bn) pension fund for savings bank employees is switching from an allocation of 70% Swedish government bonds and 30% equities to a “more diversified and modern” approach, according to its chief executive, Peter Hansson. Planning for the switch began about 18 months ago.

“Our allocation looks completely different now, and we have about 10 asset classes instead of just two,” said Hansson. The fund has split its portfolio into liability-hedging and return-seeking sections. It also diversified its bond allocation and intends to invest 20% of its assets in alternatives, including real estate.  

Swedish manager Brummer & Partners will manage a small part of the fund’s 12% hedge fund exposure in a multi-strategy fund. Most of the fund’s 12% hedge fund exposure will be dedicated to an alternative risk premia strategy – the latest fashion in institutional asset management. A manager is expected to be named by end of summer.

Alternative risk premia strategies aim for exposure to the types of uncorrelated return sources that hedge funds typically pursue, but at half the cost. Two other Scandinavian institutional investors, the Danish pension company PKA and Swedish state fund AP2, already invest in alternative risk premia. 

SPK’s fixed income portfolio has been completely overhauled. Formerly, under a government mandate to match its long-dated liabilities with long-dated assets, the fund invested only in long-term domestic government and mortgage bonds. Since a change in regulations, it will now invest in foreign government and mortgage bonds as well as a domestic corporate fund run by Handesbanken. Swedbank Robur also manages some of SPK’s bonds. 

“We’ve invested in a Goldman Sachs fund, which includes everything you can think of—credit, high yield and emerging market debt. It’s a broad mandate that we believe has the ability to make money in a rising interest-rate environment,” said Stefan Ros, SPK’s chief investment officer.

SPK’s 8% allocation to real assets is equally split between infrastructure and real estate. The infrastructure fund is a global core fund run by an as-yet unnamed manager. “Our real estate exposure is made up of a more cautious Aberdeen euro-zone fund we are topping up with a Nordic value-added strategy, a mandate that will be finalized shortly,” Ros said.

The fund’s total equity exposure remains unchanged, but it has added a Handelsbanken Swedish small-cap fund and reduced the number of global equity managers to two from four. T. Rowe Price and Carnegie will stay on as external equity managers, but SPK has sold its Aberdeen and JP Morgan funds.

Although SPK, which invests only in funds, manages the money internally, it turned to Danske Bank, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Nordea for help shaping the new strategy.

© 2014 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

The Bucket

Nevin Adams to leave EBRI

In his mid-year report, Dallas Salisbury, president of the Employee Benefit Research Institute, wrote, “Nevin Adams, who has been a highly prized contributor to the EBRI team, has accepted a position with another organization. I am, however, pleased to note that he has agreed to continue his work here through mid-August.”

Adams, a former global editor-in-chief of PlanSponsor magazine who joined EBRI in 2011 as director of Education and External Relations, director of the American Savings Education Program and co-director of the EBRI Center for Research on Retirement Income, told RIJ in an email that his new employer would be announced in a few weeks. 

A.M. Best upgrades Voya, with caveat   

Citing “favorable trends in Voya’s statutory and GAAP operating earnings, sound risk-adjusted capitalization and renewed focus on its retirement and employee benefit business, A.M. Best has upgraded the outlook for Voya Financial (formerly ING U.S.) to positive from stable.

The ratings agency also affirmed the issuer credit ratings (ICR) of “a” for Voya’s key life insurance entities, affirmed with a stable outlook the financial strength rating (FSR) of A (Excellent) of Voya’s life subsidiaries and revised the outlook to positive from stable and affirmed the ICR of “bbb” of Voya as well as the ratings on Voya’s outstanding debt.  

In explaining the upgrade, A.M. Best acknowledged Voya’s successful IPOs since May 2013, which have reduced ING Group’s ownership of Voya to about 43%.

“While some execution risks remain surrounding the completion of the process of becoming independent and rebranding to Voya, A.M. Best believes this risk has somewhat diminished as demonstrated by recent successful debt issuances totaling approximately $3 billion and favorable demand for its public shares,” the agency said in a release.

“With the proceeds from the longer-term debt issuances, Voya has been able to eliminate its short-term debt while reducing overall financial leverage to approximately 20% with interest coverage improving to approximately five times.” A.M. Best also cited:

  • Voya’s favorable debt maturity profile, with no debt maturing before 2018.
  • Voya’s established positions within the U.S. retirement, investment management and life insurance markets.
  • Its reduced exposure to higher-risk assets in its general account.
  • Its discontinued sales of variable annuities and certain capital-intensive life insurance products.
  • Its focus on enhancing risk management practices.
  • Improvements in the net amount at risk for its closed block of variable annuities (CBVA) the past several quarters, driven primarily by favorable market conditions.

The ratings agency also noted a need for caution regarding the “impact on earnings of Voya’s CBVA segment and susceptibility of future earnings to spread compression and fluctuations in the equity markets.”

“A.M. Best notes that Voya has managed interest spreads by actively reducing crediting rates in recent periods,” the release said. “However, A.M. Best believes the company may be challenged to maintain current spreads over the near to medium term as approximately 80% of interest-sensitive account values are at guaranteed minimum interest rates. “Moreover, while A.M. Best acknowledges that Voya’s hedging program protects statutory capital primarily against fluctuations in the financial markets, the company has taken material statutory charges in recent periods due to revisions to policyholder behavior assumptions on its CBVAs.

“As uncertainty remains whether current assumptions will be in line with policyholder experience, Voya is susceptible to additional and potentially significant charges in the near to medium term. Voya recently announced that it has retained the expertise of an outside actuarial firm to perform actuarial valuation, modeling and hedging functions for its CBVA segment, which A.M. Best views favorably.

“Finally, Voya’s operating companies utilize significant levels of reinsurance – both affiliated and unaffiliated – as a capital management and risk mitigation tool for its term and universal life insurance business. As such, the group’s regulatory risk-adjusted capitalization and statutory earnings benefit from the use of captives to fund Regulation XXX and Guideline AXXX reserves. A.M. Best expects statutory capital and earnings growth of Voya’s insurance operating companies to continue despite dividend payments to the holding company for debt servicing and share repurchase.

“Factors that may lead to future positive rating actions for Voya include sustained favorable operating results across its core business lines without material drag from the legacy variable annuity business as well as maintenance of strong levels of risk-adjusted capital.

“Factors that could lead to future negative rating actions include significant operating losses or reserve increases in the variable annuity block, notable spread compression in interest-sensitive lines and/or a material reduction in risk-adjusted capitalization.

The FSR of A (Excellent) and ICRs of “a” have been affirmed for the following life insurance subsidiaries of Voya Financial, Inc.:

  • ING Life Insurance and Annuity Company
  • ING USA Annuity and Life Insurance Company
  • ReliaStar Life Insurance Company
  • ReliaStar Life Insurance Company of New York
  • Security Life of Denver Insurance Company
  • [The FSR of A- (Excellent) and ICR of “a-” have been affirmed with a stable outlook for Midwestern United Life Insurance Company, a non-core subsidiary of Voya.]

Nationwide offers three new mutual funds

Nationwide Funds, the mutual fund business of Nationwide Financial, is adding three new mutual funds to its fund lineup, providing “investors with greater choice and access to new portfolio managers, while helping Nationwide Funds reach its growth objectives,” the company said in a release.

According to the release, sales of Nationwide Funds has grown 200% since the first quarter of 2013 and assets under management have grown to $57.2 billion from $47.1 billion. 

The new funds include:

The Nationwide Herndon Mid Cap Value Fund, which will invest primarily in mid-sized companies perceived to be under-valued. Managed and subadvised by Herndon Capital Management, it is the first mutual fund to offer the Herndon mid-cap value strategy.

The Nationwide Diverse Managers Fund, which will invest in global equity and fixed-income securities. The fund’s four sleeves that are managed by separate minority- and women-owned investment firms, including Garcia Hamilton & Associates, Herndon Capital Management, Strategic Global Advisors, LLC, and Ariel Investments. The fund will be available to Nationwide Financial’s retirement plan clients in mid-July.

The Nationwide Bailard Emerging Markets Fun, which will invest in emerging market equities. The fund is subadvised by Bailard, Inc. Nationwide acquired three Bailard funds when it bought 17 mutual funds from HighMark Capital Management, Inc. last year.

As of March 31, 2014, Nationwide Funds manages 114 funds with approximately $57.2 billion in assets, excluding funds of funds.

Securian guidance program adds tablet-friendly website

Securian has launched RetirementGPS.com, a component of the insurer’s Retirement GPS program, which “is designed to help advisors frame conversations with clients” about retirement in general and annuities in particular, the company said in a release.

“Advisors are looking for ways to start the retirement income conversation,” said Kerry Geurkink, manager, Individual Annuity Marketing, Securian Financial Group, in a statement. “RetirementGPS.com can help “them shift focus from accumulation to developing a retirement income strategy.”

The site helps advisors and clients discuss:  

  • Inflation risk, longevity risk and other financial risks.
  • Questions to consider when planning “a retirement route.”
  • Sources of income for retirement
  • How to keep finances on course throughout retirement.

The site also offers useful tools and resources:

  • An online survey allows visitors to answer retirement questions and compare their responses with others’.
  • A “Destination Retirement” brochure and workbook, which helps clients develop realistic retirement income strategies.

© 2014 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Life Just Got Easier for Qualified DIAs

The new Treasury regulation that relaxes the required minimum distribution (RMD) rules for qualified deferred income annuities (DIAs) was not exactly the regulation that I and some other observers had expected. The regulation, announced this week, was broader and potentially much more useful.

I expected the new regulation to allow near-retirees or retirees to use some of their IRA or 401(k) money to buy so-called “longevity insurance”—life-only annuities whose payments began no earlier than age 80 to 85. Instead, it allows people to spend up to $125,000 on DIAs whose payments don’t have to begin until age 85. What’s more, the DIAs can offer return-of-premium death benefit options.

In short, qualified DIAs sold after July 2, 2014 (the regulation isn’t retroactive) will offer much more flexibility. Contract owners won’t have to start taking income from them by age 70½, when RMDs from their other tax-deferred accounts must begin. (DIAs purchased with after-tax money aren’t subject to RMDs, so they aren’t affected by the new regulation.)

For instance, a 66-year-old with substantial savings in a 401(k) or rollover IRA can now put 25% of that savings (up to $125,000) in a DIA with a ten-year deferral and postpone taxable distributions until age 76. (This type of DIA will be henceforth known as a Qualifying Longevity Annuity Contract, or QLAC—a mouth-filling new acronym that embodies their kinship with QDIAs. Both are blessed for use as options in qualified retirement plans.)    

That’s fairly good news, especially at a time when people are expected to work longer, live longer, and neglect to think about structuring their retirement finances until they reach their mid-60s. It won’t necessarily be a game-changer for leading DIA marketers like New York Life, MassMutual, Northwestern Mutual but, as one product manager told RIJ yesterday, it could give qualified sales a lift. 

An idea evolves

Shame on me for sleeping on the job and expecting a narrower regulation. I was still relying on these words in the Federal Register back in 2012:

“The Treasury Department and the IRS have concluded that there are substantial advantages to modifying the required minimum distribution rules in order to facilitate a participant’s purchase of a deferred annuity that is scheduled to commence at an advanced age—such as age 80 or 85—using a portion of his or her account.”

That sounded like a direct reference to pure longevity insurance—low-cost, long-dated, life-only contracts that cover catastrophic longevity “tail risk,” the kind of insurance that people should buy and stuff in a drawer, just as they stuff termite or flood or meteorite insurance contracts in a drawer.     

Indeed, other sensible people assumed the same. John Turner, director of the Pension Policy Center in Washington, D.C., thought what I did. In early 2013, he and David McCarthy published an article about the proposed regulation in Benefits Quarterly. The authors equated the product under discussion at the Treasury with an annuity that “starts at an advanced age, 85.”

“It is very strange that they completely changed the concept from one where it seemed that you had to be at least age 80 to receive payments to one where you can be age 72,” Turner told RIJ yesterday, as he was packing to go on vacation. “In my analysis of the proposal, it was clear to me that such an early age was not envisioned.” (He doesn’t think men should buy DIAs through 401(k)s, because the unisex mortality tables used to price in-plan annuities work against them.)   

But Turner and I obviously weren’t paying close enough attention to the comments that had been filed in response to the proposed regulations two years ago. In their filings and discussions with officials, annuity experts and industry attorneys were evidently telling Treasury what every close observer of DIAs knew by then. Which is that consumers didn’t like pure, life-only, long-dated longevity insurance, but seemed to love deferred income annuities—personal pensions with optional death benefits.  

Thus we have a regulation that’s aligned with the reality of the marketplace, instead of one that merely tries to create a market for an idealized product that nobody wanted. Moshe Milevsky, the York University annuity expert and consultant who was close to some of these discussions, reminded RIJ that nothing in the new rule prevents people from buying pure longevity insurance.

“If you want, you can still purchase the 100% pure ALDA [advanced life deferred annuity] that starts payments at age 80 or 85,” he wrote in an e-mail. “What they [the Treasury department] are allowing is for someone to add [death benefit] riders and still qualify for QLAC treatment—which then opens the market to a much wider set of products as well (e.g., the DIA.) Basically, the intention was to increase the size of the market beyond what was allowed in the proposed regulations, but not too wide.  

“Initially my position was that a QLAC should offer no death benefits, no return of premium, and no ability to turn-on income early, so that it could offer the highest amount of mortality credits possible. That said, I can understand the pressure from industry groups and practitioners who claimed that nobody—other than a few economists—would want to sell or buy these things. There was a need to compromise and allow for features that would make the product easier to sell,” he wrote.

The death benefit mattered

Perhaps sensitive to this point, the Treasury Department fended off any suggestion that its final regulations were shaped by industry pleadings. The official response was that the final regulation in 2014 promised nothing more or less than the proposed regulation had in 2012: that payments could “start no later than age 85.” In fact, the proposal had never referred to a minimum payout age.

A spokesman for one of the lobbying groups that commented on the proposal told RIJ, “Our regulatory affairs folks don’t believe that Treasury ever intended there to be a certain commencement age. It seems that they always wanted there to be flexibility. But at the same time, the longer the deferral period, the further you get beyond age 70½, and the more helpful this QLAC rule becomes. This might be why some folks had age 80 or 85 in mind.”

Others suggested that once the Treasury Department decided to expand the definition of a QLAC to include an optional return-of-premium death benefit, the point of pushing back the earliest start date to age 80 made no sense. The death benefit had already removed some—though not all—of the mortality credit. And, from a revenue standpoint, the government clearly had no interest in forcing people to delay taxable distributions to age 80. If they only want to defer to age 73, that’s a relatively easy dispensation to grant.

On the contrary. In a prepared statement, Mark Iwry, the deputy assistant Secretary of the Treasury for retirement and health policy, addressed that issue:  

“The extent to which a deferred annuity presents challenges in terms of RMD compliance—and the special treatment under the RMD rules that the regulations provide—is generally proportional to the lateness of the annuity starting date,” his statement read. “An annuity that starts at age 85 presents a greater RMD compliance challenge and receives special treatment under the regulations for a longer period of years than one that starts at age 75. The regulation does not create a ‘cliff’ that would limit special RMD treatment to annuities starting after a specified age.”

Besides the death benefit, the retirement industry also requested and got from Treasury a softening of the proposed rule that over-contributions to a DIA would nullify the contract. According to the final regulations, over-contributions can be corrected.

But the industry didn’t get everything it wanted from Treasury. Although the final regulations allow as much as $125,000 to be spent on a QLAC (up from $100,000 in the proposal), Treasury didn’t accept the industry argument that the 25% cap on deferral made it tough for someone with, say, $200,000 in qualified savings, to buy a meaningful income stream.

Some sectors of the industry came away empty-handed. Representatives of the fixed indexed annuity lobbied for the new QLAC regulation to include their products, so that FIA contract owners could postpone RMDs until their living benefits entered the income stage. But Treasury rejected the plea, at least for now, on the grounds that the equity-linked lifetime withdrawal benefits are variable, and the products not easy for retirees to compare. (Oddly, there was no mention of the distinction that DIA contracts are irrevocable and illiquid, while living benefits are liquid.)

Kim O’Brien, president and CEO of the National Association of Fixed Annuities, isn’t satisfied by that answer. She sees no difference between DIAs and FIAs big enough to justify the exclusion of FIAs from being QLACs.

“If Treasury allows a ‘holiday’ from RMDs for DIA owners between age 70½ and an undefined ‘maximum age’ that ‘may be adjusted to reflect changes in mortality,’ then any product with a ‘predictable income payment’ should be allowed,” O’Brien wrote in an email to RIJ. “We are still reading through the entire Rule and will have more information as we get through it.” The Treasury Department did not rule out giving FIAs an exemption. Interestingly, Treasury did extend the QLAC designation to Northwestern Mutual’s DIA, which has a variable payout in the sense that contract owners can receive annual dividends along with guaranteed income.

The proponents of in-plan annuities got what they wanted from the new regulation, but it won’t be enough to fulfill their needs. Cynthia Mallett, a vice president at MetLife, has been working for several years to get deferred income annuities approved as options in 401(k) plans. She saw the new regulation as an important step toward that goal. But the regulation doesn’t resolve an even larger barrier to in-plan annuities: plan sponsors’ reluctance to offer them without a “safe harbor” rule from the Labor Department that would hold them harmless if the annuity issuer went bust.

Still, Mallett was gratified by the new regulation. For much of the past decade, she said, she and others had worked to get legislation introduced that would remove the hurdles to qualified DIAs. But their proposed bills repeatedly fell victim to a political environment where bipartisan initiatives don’t have much chance of passage. Appealing to a retirement-friendly Treasury Department for a regulatory change (as opposed to appealing to Congress for a legislative change) turned out to be much more productive.

© 2014 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Systemic Risk is Worse Now than in 2008

Since the crash of 2008, huge attention has been paid by regulators to systemic risk, the risk that some event will cause the crash of the entire banking system, not just of an individual bank. Tens of thousands of pages of financial regulations have been written, and almost as many thousands of speeches have been bloviated, about how we now understand the dangers of “too big to fail” and therefore a crash such as occurred in 2008 can never happen again.

Needless to say this is nonsense; systemic risk is worse now than it was in 2008. What’s more, the next crash will almost certainly be considerably nastier than the last one.

The main issue addressed by legislation has been “too big to fail,” the idea that some banks are so large that their failure would cause a catastrophic economic collapse and hence they must be propped up by taxpayers. It will not surprise you to learn that I don’t regard this as the central problem.

Most of the risks in the banking system today are present in a wide range of institutions, all of which are highly interconnected and getting more so. Hence a failure in a medium-sized institution, if sufficiently connected to the system as a whole, could well have systemic implications. At the same time, pretty well all banks use similar (and spurious) risk-management systems, while leverage—both open and more dangerously hidden—is high throughout the system. Foolish monetary policy is foolish for all, and if a technological disaster occurs, it is likely to affect software used by a substantial faction of the banking system as a whole. There are a number of good reasons to break up the banking behemoths, but breaking them up on its own would not solve the systemic risk problem.

Systemic risk has been exacerbated by modern finance for a number of reasons. The system’s interconnectedness is one such reason, because of the cat’s cradle of derivatives contracts totaling some $710 trillion nominal amount (per BIS figures for December 2013) that stretch between different institutions worldwide.

Some of these contracts such as the $584 trillion of interest-rate swaps are not especially risky (except to the extent that traders have been gambling egregiously on the market’s direction). However, other derivatives, such as the $21 trillion of credit-default swaps (CDS) and options thereon, have potential risk almost as great as their nominal amount. What’s more, there are $25 trillion of “unallocated” contracts. My sleep is highly troubled by the thought of 150% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in contracts which the regulators can’t define!

The problem is made worse by the illiquidity of many of these instruments. Any kind of exotic derivative with a long-term maturity is likely to trade very seldom indeed once the initial flush of creation has worn off. These risks have been alleviated by trading standard contracts on exchanges. But even if banks’ risk management were good, failure of a major counterparty or, heaven help us, of an exchange, would cause systemic havoc because of its interconnectedness.

Another systemic risk worsened by modern finance is that of inadequate risk management. This has in no way been improved by the 2008 crash. More than three years after the crash (and nearly two years after Kevin Dowd and I had anatomized its risk management failures in “Alchemists of Loss”), J.P. Morgan was still using a variation on Value-at-Risk to manage its index CDS positions in the London Whale disaster. Morgan survived that one, but there seems no reason from a risk-management perspective why the Whale’s loss should not have been $100 billion just as easily as $2 billion—which Morgan would not have survived. Regulators have done nothing to solve this problem. Indeed, the new Basel III rules continue to allow the largest banks to design their own risk-management systems, surely a recipe for disaster.

You may feel that risk management, at least, is a problem exacerbated by the size of the too-big-to-fail banks. However, this is not entirely so. Each bank will commit its own trading disasters, so that a reversion to smaller banks would equally revert to smaller but more frequent trading disasters, surely an improvement (and the London Whale’s successors would be less likely to get megalomania and attempt to control an entire market). On the other hand, if the market as a whole does things not contemplated by the risk-management system—Goldman Sachs’ David Viniar’s “25-standard deviation moves, several days in a row” as in 2007—then since all banks use risk-management systems with similar flaws, they are all likely to break down at once, producing systemic collapse. As I shall explain below, I expect the next market collapse to take place in pretty well all assets simultaneously, with nowhere to hide. Hence a collapse in the global banking system’s risk management, affecting most assets, will cause losses to pretty well all significant banks. No amount of regulation will sort that one out.

Modern finance has also made systemic risk worse through its incomprehensibility, opacity and speed. Neither the traders nor the “quants” designing new second- and third-order derivative contracts have any idea how those contracts would behave in a crisis, because they have existed through at most one crisis, and their behavior is both leveraged to and separated from the behavior of the underlying asset or pool of assets. Banks do not know their counterparties’ risks, so cannot assess the solidity of the institution with which they are dealing. And in “fast-trading” areas, computers carry out trading algorithms at blistering speed, thus producing unexpected “flash crashes” in which liquidity disappears and prices jump uncontrollably.

The opacity of banks’ operations is made worse by “mark-to-market” accounting, which foolishly causes banks to report large profits as their operations deteriorate, the credit quality of their liabilities deteriorates and their value of those liabilities declines. This makes the banks’ actual operating results in a downturn wholly incomprehensible to investors.

The leverage problem has not gone away, in spite of all the attempts since 2008 to control it. Furthermore, much of the financial system’s risk has been sidelined into non-bank institutions such as money-market funds, securitization vehicles, asset backed commercial paper vehicles and, especially, mortgage REITs, which have grown enormously since 2008. These vehicles are less regulated than banks themselves, and where the regulators have tried to control them, they have got it wrong. For example, huge efforts have been made, backed by the banking lobby, to mess up the money market fund industry, which has only ever had one loss, and that for less than 1% of the value of the fund. Conversely, the gigantic interest-rate risks of the mortgage REITs, which buy long-term mortgages and finance themselves in the repurchase market, are quite uncontrolled and a major danger to the system.

Let us not forget the role of technology, a substantial and growing contributor to systemic risk. The large banks these days develop very little software of their own, relying instead on packages both large and small from outside suppliers. The “Heartbleed” bug of April 2014 showed that even tiny programs such OpenSSL, universally used, can be attacked in ways very difficult to defend against, and that bring vulnerability to the bank’s entire system. A malicious hacker somewhere in the vast and expanding Russo-Chinese sphere of influence, or even a domestic teenager, could at any time produce a bug that slipped through the protective systems common to most banks, damaging or even bringing down the system as a whole.

However, the greatest contributor to systemic risk, and the reason why it is worse today than in 2008, is monetary policy. It had been over-expansive since 1995, causing a mortgage finance boom in 2002-06 which was anomalous in that less prosperous areas and poorer people received more new mortgage finance than the rich ones. However, its encouragement to leverage has never been so great as in the period since 2009. Consequently, asset prices have risen worldwide and leverage both open and, more importantly, hidden has correspondingly increased.

In general, very low interest rates encourage risk-taking. Monetary policy makers fantasize that this will produce more entrepreneurs in garages. Actually, banks won’t lend to entrepreneurs, so it simply produces more fast-buck artists in sharp suits. The result is more risk. When monetary policy is so extreme for so long, it results in more systemic risk. It’s as simple as that.

Precisely what form the crash will take, and when it will come, is still not clear. It’s possible that it will be highly inflationary. If the $2.7 trillion of excess reserves in the U.S. banking system starts getting lent out, the inflationary kick will be very rapid indeed. However it’s also possible the mountain of malinvestment resulting from the last five years’ foolish monetary policy will collapse of its own weight without inflation taking off. Either way, the banking system crash that accompanies the downturn will be more unpleasant than the last one, because the asset price decline that causes it will not simply be confined to housing, but will be more or less universal.

After that, systemic risk may be very much reduced—mostly because we won’t have much of a banking system left!

© 2014 Prudent Bear.

Introducing the free ‘Social Security Maximizer’

Starting today, thousands of paid subscribers (individual and corporate) to Retirement Income Journal can sign up for and use the Social Security Maximizer, a tool whose name is self-explanatory. The tool is provided by the Omyen Corporation.

Based in Westwood, Mass., Omyen is a producer of software for financial advisers and their clients. Among other things, the company invented the Personal Financial Index, a benchmark that helps consumers monitor their progress toward financial goals.

To access the Maximizer, subscribers (after logging in to the RIJ website) should simply click on the Social Security Maximizer image in the right navigation channel of the RIJ homepage, which can be seen at right. On the subsequent page, click on either the registration or log-in button, depending on whether you are already registered to use the tool or are just getting started.

Please let us know how you like the tool, and whether it proves to be useful to you and your clients.

Retirement assets total $23 trillion in 1Q2014: ICI

Total U.S. retirement assets were $23.0 trillion as of March 31, 2014, up 1.1% from a downward-revised $22.7 trillion on Dec. 31, 2013. Retirement savings accounted for 34% of all household financial assets in the United States at the end of the first quarter of 2014, according to an Investment Company Institute report.

Assets in individual retirement accounts (IRAs) totaled $6.6 trillion at the end of the first quarter of 2014, an increase of 1.5% from the end of the fourth quarter of 2013. Defined contribution (DC) plan assets rose 1.6% in the first quarter to $6.0 trillion.

Government pension plans—including federal, state, and local government plans—held $5.4 trillion in assets as of the end of March, about unchanged from the end of December. Private-sector defined benefit (DB) plans held $3.0 trillion in assets at the end of the first quarter of 2014, and annuity reserves outside of retirement accounts

Defined contribution plans

Americans held $6.0 trillion in all employer-based DC retirement plans on March 31, 2014, of which $4.3 trillion was held in 401(k) plans. Those figures are up from $5.9 trillion and $4.2 trillion, respectively, as of December 31, 2013. Mutual funds managed $3.6 trillion, or 60%, of assets held in 401(k), 403(b), and other DC plans at the end of March.

IRAs

IRAs held $6.6 trillion in assets at the end of the first quarter of 2014, up from $6.5 trillion at the end of the fourth quarter of 2013. Forty-six percent of IRA assets, or $3.0 trillion, was invested in mutual funds.

As of March 31, 2014, target date mutual fund assets totaled $641 billion, an increase of 3.7% in the first quarter. Retirement accounts held the bulk of target date mutual fund assets: 89% of target date mutual fund assets were held through DC plans and IRAs.

© 2014 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Cerulli explains strange bond weather

So far this year, rising prices of long-term U.S. Treasury bonds and other high-quality fixed income investments have surprised many investors, who were girding themselves for higher interest rates and lower bond prices.

In the June issue of The Cerulli Edge, analysts at Boston-based Cerulli Associates have been tracking this trend. According to the publication, investors who expected the Federal Reserve’s slow retreat from massive bond-buying to raise yields have found instead that 10-year Treasury yields have fallen 60 basis points year-to-date through May 31, 2014.

During the same time-period, the Barclay’s U.S. Aggregate Bond Index rose 3.8% and fixed income strategies that were benchmarked to that index saw net asset inflows, not the expected outflows.

Cerulli analysts point to the changing supply and demand in Treasuries as a possible explanation. Net issuance of Treasury debt was down 60% in 2014 when compared to May last year, while global demand for government debt reached $1.2 trillion, or double the current supply.

In addition, the analysts write, de-risking corporate pension plans and other institutional investors have locked in 2013 equity gains by moving assets into U.S. Treasury debt and other high-quality fixed income. What’s more, life insurers, holders of $2.6 trillion in long-term bonds, added about $52 billion in high-quality bonds to general account investment portfolios last year, Cerulli said, citing data from A.M. Best.

© 2014 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

UK creates framework for DB/DC hybrid

The UK government is working hard to steer its private pension industry—which has rapidly devolved from old-fashioned defined benefit plans to US-style defined contribution—toward a hybrid, Danish-style retirement plan design that requires employers and employees to share investment and longevity risk.

It’s still not clear whether this hybrid approach—called “defined ambition” by UK Work & Pensions secretary Steve Webb—has widespread support among employers or if it’s mainly a private passion of Webb’s. But his department has nonetheless forged ahead and published a “framework” for setting up defined ambition plans in the UK.   

For a copy of the publication describing that framework, click here. At present, UK labor law doesn’t accommodate DB/DC hybrids.

The legislative framework will also make room for further types of models, focusing on guarantees for retirement income that come into place as a member ages. It will not provide space for any money-back guarantees within DC schemes, but it will continue analysis and work out how other models fit in within the legal parameters.

These include capital guarantees, which protect the nominal value of member savings midway through the savings cycle; the use of retirement income insurance, which avoids single-event conversion risk; and the Danish ATP-style pension income builder, which uses continuously-purchased deferred annuities.

© 2014 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

AIG to help officers accused of ‘fraud on the market’

American International Group’s insurers have decided to offer immediate funds to persons covered by their primary Directors and Officers (D&O) liability insurance who become defendants in securities lawsuits so they can finance “event studies” as part of their defense.

AIG, one of the largest D&O carriers, made the announcement in anticipation of the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in Halliburton Co. v. Erica P. John Fund, Inc. In that case, Halliburton is asking the high court to throw out a lower court case in which owners of Halliburton stock had charged that Halliburton committed “fraud on the market” by not telling investors about its exposure to liability claims from workers hurt from working with asbestos. 

The “fraud on the market” theory in class action litigation, established by the Supreme Court’s 1988 decision in Basic Inc. v. Levinson, asserts that the price of shares traded in an “efficient market” reflects all available information, including alleged misrepresentations by corporate managers. Because investors as a group rely on those alleged misrepresentations, the theory goes, plaintiffs can bring securities suits as class actions.

In its unanimous June 23 ruling, the Supreme Curt did not reject the “fraud on the market” theory, which would have involved overturning the 1988 decision. Instead, it held that defendants could rebut the theory—and head off a potential class action suit even before it got started—by presenting economic evidence (“event studies”) that the alleged misstatements didn’t alter securities prices.

This week, AIG announced that it would advance the money to its D&O clients so that they could pay for the event studies. AIG’s D&O underwriters and claims professionals said they will continue to monitor interpretation of the Halliburton decision to determine whether additional policy endorsements or changes are necessary.

AIG offers primary and excess coverage to directors and officers of domestic and multinational public and private companies, non-profit entities, and financial institutions to protect against board-level risks.

© 2014 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Morningstar issues quarterly VA survey

Product development activity was very slow during the first quarter of 2014. Carriers filed 33 annuity product changes compared to 61 product changes in the fourth quarter of 2013 and 97 in the
first quarter last year. Despite the lower level of activity, we did see a wide variety of activity that continued the three main trends:

  • A focus on “investment only” VA offerings
  • Buybacks to restrict liability on the part of carriers
  • New living benefit structures with fluctuating features tied to a market factor that shifts risk to the contract owner

Annuity product development continues to push toward features that are not solely focused on standard-issue living benefits. The “hybrid” annuity territory was further explored this quarter with the release of a deferring income annuity rider. In addition, a withdrawal benefit with baked-in exclusion ratio was presented to further enhance the tax-preferential treatment inside a VA.

The trend toward offloading risk from carriers to contract owners took the form of additional “floating” benefit features tied to interest rates, versus set rate that does not change.

Carriers continued to slowly enhance benefit levels for new business, with some carriers offer withdrawals for a 65 year old that reached 6%, a rate we have not seen for some time.

Q1 Product Changes

In March 2014 AXA released an I-share version of the Investment Edge. The fee is 0.30%, and the contract offers 124 subaccounts in a variety of styles, including aggressive allocations. The contract carries an annuitization option (Income Edge) available on non-qualified contracts with a withdrawal percentage determined by the number of years remaining in the withdrawal period. The exclusion ratio is set at the time of the first withdrawal. There are no step ups.

Guardian released the Investor ProFreedom VA (B-share). The contract carries a unique income benefit at no charge that acts as a deferred income annuity, where the owner transfers funds into a payout option and receives a commitment for a deferred income intended to be turned on later. The contract offers 30 subaccounts, including some in alternative asset categories. Fee for the contract is 1.00% (B-share).

The Nationwide Lifetime Income Capture is a new lifetime withdrawal benefit costing 1.20% and offering a 5% withdrawal rate for a 65 year old (4.75% joint). Step ups include an HAV and an annual bump up based on the 10-year treasury rate, adjusted by the company for current conditions. This step up will always fall between 4% and 10%.

Principal made a voluntary exchange offer as of 1/20/2014. For owners of the Investment Plus contract, those who hold the Investor Protector Plus benefit (or no GMWB at all) may terminate the old contract, and a new contract is issued with either the Principal Income Builder 3 or Principal Income Builder 10 (further restrictions apply). 

Prudential released a new version of the Premier Retirement VA B-share, carrying the new HD Lifetime 3.0 guaranteed lifetime withdrawal benefit. The firm increased the withdrawal for the 65–69 age band from 4.5% to 5.0%. The spousal version also increased the withdrawal percent by 0.50% for the same age band. The spousal version offers a withdrawal percentage that is 0.50% lower for all age bands, with a 4.5% payout for a 65 year old. The surrender schedule was tweaked slightly, and fees and other main provisions stayed the same. The company files monthly rate sheets with current withdrawal percentages and step ups for newly issues benefits.

Prudential also updated its Defined Income Benefit rates. The Lifetime GMWB benefit guarantees lifetime withdrawals of the benefit base for the life of the owner with the withdrawal percentage determined by the owner’s age at contract issue. At the start of Q1 the with- drawal percentages ranged from 3.50% for age 45 to 7.50% for ages 85+. On February 15, 2014, the withdrawal percentages moved to 3.40% for age 45 ranging up to 7.40% for ages 85+.

In March 2014, SunAmerica raised the withdrawal percentage for the 65+ age band from 5.0% to 5.2% (single) and from 4.5% to 4.7% (joint) on the Polaris Income Builder. (Note the name also changed from SunAmerica Income Builder to Polaris Income Builder).

Thrivent changed the fee options for their guaranteed lifetime with- drawal benefit. The number of fee structures went from three to two. In addition, the fees increased: the benefit fee when using a conservative allocation increased from 0.50% to 0.75%; the benefit fee when using a moderate allocation increased from 0.80% to 1.00%. The moderately aggressive option was dropped.

Transamerica raised the withdrawal percentage by 0.50% for its Living Benefit (a Lifetime GMWB) attached to the Retirement Income Plus contract. Current lifetime withdrawal rate for a 65 year old is 6.0% (single life) or 5.50% (joint life). The New York versions are 5.8% (single life) or 5.30% (joint life), and the company added an age band to the New York version to make it comparable to the national version.

Pipeline

Forethought released the ForeRetirement II VA (B-, C-, and L-) shares. The contract offers two versions of a highest daily step up lifetime withdrawal benefit: one with a 6% step up and another with a 4% step up. Contract fees are 1.15% (B-share); 1.65% (C-share); and 1.60% (L-share). Forethought also released the ForeRetirement Foundation, which also offers two versions of a highest daily step up lifetime withdrawal benefit. Fees are 1.00% (B-share); 1.65% (C-share); and 1.60% (L-share) (which includes a 0.50% premium based sales charge).

Guardian released the Investor ProStrategies (I-share) and Investor ProFreedom (C-share). The contracts carry a unique income benefit at no charge that acts as a deferred income annuity, where the owner transfers funds into the payout option and receives a deferred income

amount intended to be turned on later. The contracts offers 30 subaccounts, including some in alternative asset categories. Fee for the contracts is 0.60% (I-share) and 1.70% (C-share).

In May, ING offered a special buy out for holders of their GMIB rider (called “MGIB Rider”). The offer automatically waives the 10-year waiting period on the benefit. In addition, for a sixty-day period starting in July, the company offers a one-time bump up to the benefit base (percentage to be determined) in exchange for surrendering the benefit and initiating annuitization payments based on the bumped up benefit base. The advantage to the contract holder is that benefits payments can start earlier. The down side is that the owner gives up potentially higher income later should the account value increase above the bumped up benefit base.

Nationwide released an L-share version of their Destination All American called the Gold 2.0 (Liquidity). The fee is 1.45% and the contract carries the existing suite of Nationwide living benefits. The contract offers 108 subaccounts, including alternatives.

Ohio National released the Oncore Lite III. The fee is 0.20% higher than the Lite II version and the surrender schedule was extended. Benefits and investment options remained the same.

Prudential released the Premier Investment VA (B- and C-shares). The contract carries an M&E fee (0.55% for B-share; 0.68% for C-share) as well as a premium-based sales fee of 0.55% charged quarterly against purchase payments. There are no living benefits, and the contract carries 50 subaccounts, including a host of alternative categories.

Prudential also updated its Defined Income Benefit withdrawal and step up rates. After May 15, 2014, the withdrawal percentages range from 3.25% for age 45 to 7.25% for ages 85+. he step up was also changed. On each day prior to beginning lifetime withdrawals, the benefit base is appreciated at a daily equivalent of 5.5% annually (down from 6%).

© 2014 Morningstar, Inc.

Northwestern Mutual to sell Russell Investments

Northwestern Mutual has agreed to sell its Russell Investments unit to the London Stock Exchange Group plc for $2.7 billion. The sale will be finalized later this year, pending regulatory and LSEG shareholder approvals and satisfaction of other closing conditions.

Russell oversees almost $260 billion in assets, primarily for large, institutional investors such as pension funds. The firm also maintains stock indices such as the Russell 2000. Russell mutual funds are available to retail investors.

“The proceeds from the sale will cap off what has proven to be a good investment for Northwestern Mutual,” said John Schlifske, chairman and CEO of Northwestern Mutual, in a release.

Northwestern Mutual manages more than $184 billion in invested assets as part of its general account investment portfolio, which backs its insurance and annuity products.

Goldman, Sachs & Co. and J.P. Morgan Securities LLC acted as financial advisors to Northwestern Mutual on this transaction.

© 2014 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

What’s In Their Wallets?

Income from defined benefit plans, like rays of light from distant, dying stars, is still streaming into the households of older Americans. Despite the conventional wisdom about the end of DB, most affluent retiree households are still receiving a substantial amount of their income from DB pensions.      

That was one of the key findings of a just-published 2012 survey by the Vanguard Center for Retirement Research, and it may help explain why more people aren’t buying income products.

The Vanguard survey was more detailed than most. It involved interviews with retired or semi-retired people ages 60 to 79 in about 2,600 U.S. households about their sources of retirement income. The households had to have at least $100,000 in financial wealth. They were asked to identify the precise locations and amounts of their bank, brokerage and retirement accounts.   

 “We were able to get very high-resolution data on a granular scale,” said Steve Utkus, who co-authored a report on the survey with Anna Madamba and John Ameriks. “That’s quite novel.” 

Vanguard has an obvious interest in this type of information. The Malvern, Pa-based financial services firm manages some $2.72 trillion in assets through varied retail and institutional businesses. It’s one of the largest full-service retirement plan providers and a leading direct marketer of no-load mutual funds and ETFs.   

The more it knows about its customers’ sources of retirement income and how they intend to draw down their money (the subject of a forthcoming report based on the same survey), the better able it will be to develop the products and services—systematic withdrawal plans, guided income programs, annuities, payout mutual funds—that they’re going to need. 

Pension prevalence

In sorting out the result of the survey, Vanguard identified eight categories of affluent U.S. retiree households by their primary source of retirement income. The categories (and the sources) were Social Security, Pensions, Retirement accounts, Taxable accounts, Annuities, Liquid assets, Real Estate and Businesses.

Of these, the biggest groups were those who relied mainly on Social Security (26% of the sample) or Pensions (24%). The richest and smallest groups were those who got most of their income from Real Estate (3%) or Businesses (3%). The groups with the most financial assets were the ones who depended mainly on Retirement (18%) or Taxable (17%) accounts. The two most conservative groups were the Annuity owners (4.5% of the sample) and Liquidity investors (4.5%).

Representing about one-third of older American households, those surveyed had median financial assets of $395,000. Their median total non-housing wealth was $1.1 million, but only when the lump sum values of Social Security benefits and pensions were counted as wealth. 

The most striking finding of the study “was the fact that half of the population of even this affluent group still has most of its wealth tied up in Social Security and defined benefit pensions,” Utkus told RIJ in a recent interview.

“The idea that retirees have no pension assets—that will occur down the road,” he said. But it’s not true yet. About 71% of the households in the study, which was conducted with the help of Ipsos, a Paris-based market research firm, had pension income. About one in four got more than half (53%) of their income from pensions. The median annual pension was $20,000.

Vanguard Eight Types

“Our gut feeling that it will take 10 to 15 years, at least a decade, for pension income to drop significantly,” Utkus added. “Most of the phase-out in defined benefit plans has been in freezes for new hires or freezes on accruals. A decade from now it may look very different. But there are still a lot of people who are getting meaningful benefits from DB pensions.”

Another surprising finding: affluent older Americans still have a lot of their money tied up in ultra-conservative assets. “We found a high degree of conservatism. A lot of households have their wealth concentrated in either Social Security, pensions, certificates of deposits and variable annuities. That shows a very high level of risk aversion,” Utkus said. A deeply risk-averse fraction (4.5%) of those surveyed, whom Vanguard identified as “Liquidity” investors, held 69% of the invested assets in liquid accounts.

Only 4.5% of those surveyed held the largest chunk of their savings in annuities. These “Annuity” investors held almost half (45%) of their total non-housing financial wealth ($848,000) up in annuities—primarily variable annuities with living benefits, Utkus said. Of the eight types of affluent investors that Vanguard identified, only this group had more than 4% of their wealth in annuities.

Lessons for advisers

Advisers who are looking for likely clients might concentrate on the 35% of the study group that had the highest levels of financial wealth: the Taxable investors, whose median financial assets were $934,000, and the Retirement investors, who had about $750,000. Business owners and Real estate investors had the highest income and the most total non-housing wealth, but most of their wealth was illiquid.      

The more affluent the retiree, the more sources of retirement income they will have, Utkus said. This fact will tend to make decumulation more complex and more individualized. “Those who work with affluent clients should realize that there’s incredible complexity here,” he said.

Taxable, Retirement and Annuity investors were the most likely to have worked with a financial intermediary, the study showed. Taxable investors were strong planners, were more likely than average to have an estate plan, long-term care insurance and a high bequest motive. Retirement investors had the highest likelihood of having created a spending plan before retirement. Both of those latter groups were likely to be well educated and in good health. 

These were the results of the first part of a two-part study. The second part assesses the various ways in which retirees spend down their retirement savings.

 “Our goal with the first study was to understand who this group is. The second study, still in progress, will look at drawdown behavior,” Utkus said. “For that we somewhat arbitrarily chose 100 people. We’re looking for deeper lessons about drawdown strategies. We’re looking to see how drawdown from IRAs might differ from drawdown from 401(k)s and from drawdown from non-retirement taxable accounts. We’ll look at who is doing systematic withdrawals and who is making ad hoc withdrawals.”

© 2014 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Getting the Exclusion Ratio (Without Annuitizing)

Thirty-some years ago, the IRS decided to change the tax treatment of partial withdrawals from non-qualified deferred variable annuities from FIFO (first-in-first-out) to LIFO (last-in-first-out). Unless they annuitized, generally, the owners of contracts issued after August 13, 1982 have had to withdraw all of their taxable gains before they could withdraw any of their after-tax principal.

If they annuitized, they could withdraw a blend of gains and principal, and exclude the return-of-principal portion from their taxable income. Annuitization was thus a way to spread the tax on the accumulated gains over a person’s remaining lifetime.

There was a method to the IRS’ madness. It wanted to reserve the tax advantages of deferred annuity contracts to long-term investors (especially those seeking retirement income security) and to frustrate the merry pranksters who were using VAs to shelter the gains on freely-withdrawable short-term investments.    

But at least two large annuity manufacturers—Lincoln Financial in 2000 and, more recently, AXA—have obtained private letter rulings from the IRS that allow some of their VA clients to get the exclusion ratio without formally annuitizing. What’s newsworthy is that this feature is being combined with the sale of new VA contracts that are being marketed for tax-advantaged investing.    

Investor Advantage  

Last month, Lincoln Financial introduced the Investor Advantage contract, thus joining the trend, started by Jackson National’s Elite Access, of appealing to investors who want tax-deferred investing in an almost unconstrained range of funds, including alternatives. Investor Advantage offers 125 fund options—significantly more than the number offered in Lincoln’s popular ChoicePlus VA suite of contracts.    

If and when owners of Investor Advantage want to draw down those assets tax-efficiently (but without annuitizing), they can opt for Lincoln’s long-standing patented i4Life Advantage income rider. During this rider’s “Access Period,” which must be at least five years in length and can last to at least age 115 for non-qualified owners, the owner can receive regular variable payments with an exclusion ratio—while maintaining access to the assets.

The Access Period of Lincoln’s i4Life Advantage can be thought of as the term-certain portion of a life-with-period-certain contract, with variable payments, according to Dan Herr, vice president of annuity product management at Lincoln Financial. 

The cost of Lincoln’s Investor Advantage contract is 1.50%, which includes the M&E, administrative charge and 40 basis points for the i4Life Advantage rider. Contract owners don’t pay the rider fee unless or until they turn on the rider.

Lincoln does bear mortality risk, because at the end of the Access Period, the remaining account value converts into a life-only income annuity with variable payments. But Lincoln doesn’t bear investment risk, because the payouts fluctuate with the markets. 

Investment Edge

Only about eight months old is AXA’s Investment Edge, which offers a rider called Income Edge. This rider, which carries no added cost and is available only on non-qualified contracts worth at least $25,000, allows contract owners to withdraw their money over a fixed number of years while enjoying the exclusion ratio and retaining the option to take lump sum redemptions.

The income period can range from 10 years to as many as 30 years or more. After the payments begin, the owner can still redeem part or all of the account value. Those redemptions are fully taxable as ordinary income.

AXA sought and obtained an IRS private letter ruling (PLR) for Investment Edge in mid-2013 and got verbal approval before year-end. (The IRS posted the PLR on its website this month. Lincoln obtained its own private letter ruling over a decade ago when it created i4Life Advantage.) AXA’s PLR describes the rider as a “term certain annuity option with variable payments.”

The AXA Investment Edge prospectus offers an example of how Income Edge might work. If an 80-year-old contract owner—that’s the oldest age permitted for a 15-year payout period—elected to receive variable income over 15 years from a contract valued at $150,000, he or she would receive $10,000 the first year or one fifteenth of the account value. At the start of each succeeding contract year, the account value would be divided by 14, 13 and so on, to calculate the annual payout.

The B-share of AXA’s Investment Edge carries annual separate account fees of 1.20%. There is no specified mortality & expense risk fee or income rider fee; AXA bears neither market risk nor mortality risk. Fund fees, of course, are extra.

As befits investment-oriented annuities, both of these contracts offer lots of funds, including trendy alternative investments, including real estate, commodities and emerging market debt. Most investors don’t understand alternatives, but advisors seem to think they offer a chance for higher returns and greater diversification at a time when yields are low and non-correlated investments can be hard to identify.

In addition to the funds offered by other Lincoln contracts, Investor Advantage offers funds from AQR, First Trust Portfolios, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, and Ivy Funds. AXA Investment Edge offers over 100 funds, including three Alternative funds from AXA’s Charter Portfolios. 

Depending on the success of these two products, and the IRS’ apparently willingness to bless the tax treatment of the payouts, we could see more of this type of contract. They are designed for relatively younger retirement savers who want to invest actively in mutual funds on a tax-deferred basis and who, when the time comes to take income, may like the exclusion ratio and be able to tolerate the fluctuating payments.   

Although several annuity issuers are using anxiety over potentially rising federal tax rates to generate interest in VAs that offer tax-deferred trading, manufacturers have other reasons for promoting them. They’re cheaper and safer to issue than VAs with guaranteed lifetime withdrawal benefits, which helps manufacturers increase capacity without going up in cost or capital requirements. Either way, the addition of a low-cost income solution could very well broaden their appeal.  

© 2014 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved. 

IRA rollovers in 2013 totaled $324 billion; $720 billion stayed behind

A combination of retiring Baby Boomers and a rising stock market helped total IRA assets rise by 17% or $324 billion in 2013, to $6.5 trillion, according to a new report from Cerulli Associates, the Boston-based global research firm.   

In the “Evolution of the Retirement Investor 2014: Understanding 401(k) Participant Behavior and Trends in IRAs, Rollovers, and Retirement Income,” Cerulli examined the migration of assets and came up with observations designed to help financial services companies compete for this “money in motion.”

“We anticipate that IRA asset growth will continue through the remainder of the decade as defined contribution assets continue to roll into individual accounts,” said Shaan Duggal, analyst at Cerulli, in a release.

About 70% of the rollover money went to firms with whom the participant already had a financial relationship, though not necessarily to a 401(k) provider. Despite all the talk about rollovers, Cerulli pointed out, inertia still has a powerful effect. About two-thirds of the 401(k) money that was eligible for a rollover stayed in the plan in 2013. There was $720 billion that could have moved but did not.  

 “While asset values are climbing, so is the level of competition and noise surrounding rollovers,” added Chris Nadai, a senior analyst at Cerulli. “Firms must be creative with their marketing and adapt quickly as new sales program such as rollover cash incentives grab consumer attention.”

Nadai apparently referred to the offers by E*Trade and TD Ameritrade of “up to $600” to people who roll qualified money to their firms. Those ads have been shown to be highly misleading however. An investor must park hundreds of thousands of dollars in a brokerage account in order to qualify for a trivial bonus.

Regulators have told RIJ in the past that those firms can offer such ethics-bending come-on ads because they sell a service, not a registered security, as fund companies do. 

Retirement plan recordkeepers are in a good position to compete for the assets. Cerulli suggests that recordkeepers need to invest in technology and market research that facilitate a positive customer experience.

“Outbound communication to participants who are changing jobs or retiring should use relevant data from their account information whenever possible, because participants are more likely to respond to a personalized approach,” Duggal said. “Customer service both online and by phone is of critical importance as complex concepts such as retirement income do not resonate well with individuals as they think about their finances and lifestyles.”

Job changers in their 50s evidently are not yet receptive to marketing messages that emphasize retirement income. “They do not consider themselves pre-retirees,” Cerulli noted. Therefore firms’ attempts to present themselves as the “retirement” company might not connect well with rollover candidates.

In rollovers, as in other businesses, it’s easier to keep a customer than to win a new customer. A recordkeeper’s investment in building a strong relationship with participants, and positioning itself as the most logical financial partner when participants separate, can be more cost-effective than trying to convince participants to save more. “This strategy can grow assets faster than trying to increase contribution rates,” the Cerulli report said.

© 2014 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

The Bucket

Stock buybacks slower in 2Q 2014: TrimTabs

Announced stock buybacks have slowed to $92.7 billion in the second quarter, down from $138.5 billion in the first quarter, according to TrimTabs Investment Research..

“Stock buyback announcements in the second quarter are on track to be the lowest in seven quarters,” said David Santschi, CEO of TrimTabs, in a release.  “Buybacks in June have sunk to just $11.5 billion, the lowest level since May 2012.”

The decline in share repurchase announcements began in May, when they fell to $24.8 billion, and has persisted into June. Only four companies have announced buybacks of at least $1 billion so far this month.

“The sharp slowdown in buybacks is a negative sign for the U.S. stock market,” Santschi said.  “Share repurchases are the main way companies reduce the float of shares. Perhaps fewer companies like what they see when they look into the future.”

The decline in buybacks is not the only cautionary sign for U.S. equity investors, TrimTabs said. Merger activity has skyrocketed, while companies are selling new shares at the fastest pace since last autumn.

“Our liquidity indicators aren’t as positive for U.S. equities as they were a month ago,” said Santschi.  “While the bull market isn’t necessarily ending, investors should be more cautious on the long side.”

E*Trade investors expect to rely little on Social Security

Results of E*Trade’s quarterly investor tracking study, Streetwise, indicate investors will not depend solely on employer-sponsored plans and Social Security to reach their retirement goals.

The latest wave of the Streetwise survey was conducted last spring among 900 self-directed investors who manage $10,000 or more in an online brokerage account.

On average, investors surveyed planned to receive:

  • 42% of income from an employer-sponsored plan (27% from 401(k); 15% from pension)
  • 25% of income from personal savings or an IRA
  • 16% from Social Security
  • 17% from other sources

The survey was fielded and administered by ResearchNow. The survey sample was 61% male and 39% female with an even distribution across online brokerages, geographic regions and age bands.

Transamerica promotes small-company retirement plan service

A new white paper, prepared by a prominent ERISA law firm, promote Transamerica Retirement Solutions’ Retirement Plan Exchange as a resource for small businesses that want to adopt a retirement plan that has light administrative burdens and little exposure to fiduciary liability.

Over one-quarter of small businesses currently do not offer a 401(k) or similar plan to their employees, Transamerica said in a release.  

The white paper, “Minimizing an Employer’s Fiduciary Risk Through the Retirement Plan Exchange,” was produced by The Wagner Law Group in Boston and touts the advantages of Transamerica’s offering. 

With Retirement Plan Exchange, the release said, the employer delegates primary responsibility for managing certain aspects of the retirement plan operation to the administrative fiduciary, which serves as the plan administrator 3(16), along with an investment manager 3(38) or 3(21) to manage the investment menu offered to plan participants. The numbers refer to sections of the ERISA code that define fiduciary responsibilities.

The Retirement Plan Exchange also handles important tasks like Form 5500 filing, non-discrimination testing, contribution limits tracking, distribution processing, and hardship requests, according to Transamerica.

Under the program, eligible workers are auto-enrolled at a 6% contribution rate with a two percent auto-increase in each of the next two years, leading to a minimum annual savings rate of 10%. 

According to Simpkins & Associates, a Dallas-based retirement consultant, the Retirement Plan Exchange is best-suited plans with less than about $3 million in assets, with a low participation rate, open multi-employer plans, plans with inattentive sponsors and plans where the investment professional doesn’t wish to be a fiduciary.   

Bimbo re-embraces Fidelity

Fidelity Investments announced that it now provides 401(k) retirement plan services to Bimbo Bakeries USA, the U.S. business unit of $13.8 billion, Mexican-owned baking company, Grupo Bimbo. It is the world’s largest bakery.

In the U.S., the company operates more than 65 bakeries and distributes Arnold, Oroweat, Entenmann’s, Sara Lee, Thomas’ products, among others. Bimbo’s 401(k) plan has approximately 14,000 participants with assets of $860 million.

The move represents Bimbo’s reengagement of Fidelity. Three years ago, after a merger, the baking company selected another 401(k) provider. That provider was not named in the release. 

Guardian and LPL Financial in participant support pact

LPL Financial’s Worksite Financial Solutions platform will be adapted for use with the Guardian Choice and Guardian Advantage products, Guardian Insurance & Annuity Co., a unit of Guardian Life, announced this week.

GIAC’s plan sponsor clients who with LPL Financial will now have access to LPL’s Worksite Financial Solutions platform’s Employee Transition and Engagement Solutions.

Components of the program include customized financial education support services, asset roll over assistance, education and support for separating and terminated participants, and personalized strategies to meet retirement goals. 

© 2014 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

 

Zombie Politics

Patient Zero in American’s long-standing financial and political malaise, according to an earnest new book by economist Eugene Steuerle of the Urban Institute, was Jude Wanniski, the late conservative journalist, gold bug and evangelizer of supply-side economics.

In “Dead Men Ruling: How to Restore Fiscal Freedom and Rescue our Future” (Century Foundation, 2014), Steuerle suggests that Wanniski’s 1976 column in The Wall Street Journal planted the germ of an idea that proved infectious: that Republicans should neutralize the Democrats’ appeal as the benevolent “spending Santa” by becoming the benevolent “tax cut Santa.”

Wanniski’s “two Santas” idea went viral among Republicans, and the rest is history. Subsequent years brought the Reagan Revolution, the Laffer Curve and Dick Cheney’s famous remark that “deficits don’t matter.” Soon, almost nobody was left in Washington to stand up for fiscal responsibility. And why should they? A vote against entitlements, tax expenditures or tax cuts meant political suicide.

Eugene Steuerle

That wasn’t good for the country, writes Steuerle (right), a liberal-leaning pragmatist who served in  the Ford, Reagan and H.W. Bush Treasury departments. It led to huge levels of entitlement spending, huge budget deficits and a huge national debt. It has led to over-spending on the old and  under-spending on the young. Perhaps worst of all, mandatory spending now dominates the annual budget, leaving today’s politicians with few resources to address new problems, like declining educational levels and decaying infrastructure.

 “My thesis is quite simple,” he writes. “In recent decades, both parties have conspired to create and expand a series of public programs that automatically grow so fast that they claim every dollar of additional tax revenue that the government generates each year. “They also have conspired to lock in tax cuts that leave the government unable to pay its bills. The resulting squeeze deprives current and future generations of the leeway to choose their own priorities, allocate their own resources, and reach for their own stars. Those generations are left largely to maintain yesterday’s priorities.”

In one of the charts in his book, Steuerle shows how little of the expected $1.2 trillion growth in federal outlays over the next 10 years will go to children. Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and interest on the national debt will capture virtually all of it. Only 2% is earmarked for programs for children. Military spending will shrink by $106 billion.

“Historically, a country ran a deficit because a particular king or government was profligate somehow,” Steuerle told RIJ in an interview this week. “It’s a very different situation when governments commit to spending programs that last indefinitely into the future. That may sound like a trivial difference, but it’s crucial to solving the problem.

“I use the metaphor of leaving the window open and letting a lot of critters crawl in. You can start setting more and more traps around the house to catch the critters, or you can shut the window.” In our case, however, the window seems to have been propped open.

Steuerle chart

As for today’s elected officials, “I think they’re trapped,” Steuerle continued. “Once they started competing not only for control of the present but also for control of the future, they got in a box. Now they’re in a classic prisoner’s dilemma. Both sides believe that if they lead [in recommending entitlement or tax reform], they will lose. They know the public will punish them.”

The potentially tragic consequence of lavishing benefits on Boomers ad infinitum, Steuerle says, is that there’s not much money left over to invest in the future. Instead of giving wealthy Boomers more retirement and health benefits, we should be directing that money toward education and other future-oriented initiatives instead, he believes.

On the question of Social Security, Steuerle wants to strengthen it, but not in its current form. The retirement age should rise along with life expectancies, he believes. At the same time, he’d like to make the program more progressive.  He favors higher minimum benefits for low-income Americans and lower maximum benefits for the wealthy. (Thanks to longer retirements, upper middle-class couples stand to receive $300,000 more over their lifetimes than the system anticipated, he said.) He also advocates more equitable benefits for single working moms (as opposed to dependent spouses) and more credit for women who were never married to the same person for at least 10 years. 

“My friends, like Henry Aaron [of the Brookings Institution], say we can raise tax rates to fully fund Social Security. I say, ‘Yes, but if we raise taxes, why spend the money on people like you and me?’ Let’s spend the taxes where we can make meaningful improvements. If the best we can do is to create a budget that barely gets entitlements under control, that’s a budget for a declining economy.”

Given the inflexible partisanship and “incivility” that makes today’s political scene seem especially hopeless, the book is refreshingly evenhanded. “Dead Men Ruling” is an important wake up call to the living. It’s a warning that each generation needs the freedom to establish its own budgets for its own needs, and not be chained to the past.

Of course, the young have always had difficulty escaping the shadows of the old. “The ideas of economists and political philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood,” John M. Keynes famously said, and this oft-used quote seems particularly apt. “Indeed the world is ruled by little else. Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist.”

© 2014 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved. 

Is Time Running Out on the Fiduciary Proposal?

At the SPARK Conference in Washington, DC on Monday, a prominent employee benefits lawyer said that the prospects are growing dimmer that the Department of Labor will re-propose any new fiduciary rule for advisers to 401(k) plans or participants by the end of the Obama administration. 

“The major question is whether we will have a new reg,” Steven Saxon of Groom Law Group (below) told members of SPARK Institute, which advocates for the retirement plan industry. “It was supposed to be issued in August, and now it’s put off to January 2015. After talking to a lot of folks, I have to wonder whether if it will get done by January, or if at all.

Steven Saxon

“If it takes six months for a comment period and another six months to get through hearings, and then more time to develop a final rule, by then we’re running into 2016, an election year,” he added. “There’s going to be a lot of political pressure on the White House and the OMB [Office of Management and Budget]. It’s questionable whether they will spring a controversial regulation in an election year.”

Saxon pointed to a May 29 editorial in the Wall Street Journal by Mary Kissel as an indication of how nasty the debate might get—i.e., that the so-called race card has already been played.

In the editorial, Kissel asserted that the DoL’s original proposal—intended to insulate participants from salespeople posturing as objective advisers—would “particularly hurt low-income Hispanics and African-Americans” who can’t afford to pay directly for impartial professional financial advice.   

“That’s what the DoL, the White House, and the OMB will have to deal with,” Saxon said.

The line between sales and advice

A fiduciary standard for interactions between advisers and 401(k) sponsors or participants could infuse previously business-as-usual sales and compensation practices with new legal and regulatory ambiguity, unless the new rules include specific exemptions from the rules.

“The question is, when I’m making a sales presentation, when do I become a fiduciary? And does that raise the possibility of prohibited transactions and does that affect the way I get paid?” Saxon said.

“There are two levels of concern,” he told RIJ in an interview. “One involves presentations to plan sponsors. Let’s say I’m an adviser who’s selling a 401(k) product. I’m meeting with plan sponsors and they ask me questions about the fund lineup. What if I start to talk about the performance of various funds, and the plan sponsor says, ‘What would you recommend?’

“Does the sales presentation become a recommendation? If the plan sponsor relies on that information and subsequently buys the recommended plan, does the sales person become a fiduciary” even though the sale hasn’t yet taken place? Saxon said.

“The second concern is about conversations with participants about financial education,” he added. “Let’s say I’m engaged to talk to retiring employees about rollovers. The sponsor isn’t paying me. I’m just using their conference room. What if I know that a certain employee has $600,000, and that he can either leave it in the 401(k) plan or roll it over to my firm’s IRA. If he rolls it over, I make a lot of money. If they leave in the plan, I don’t. At what point in time do I become a fiduciary? That’s what this whole fight is about.”

Understandable frustration

On the one hand, companies sponsor 401(k) plans voluntarily. They might be expected to be sophisticated enough to distinguish sales presentations (which are typically free) from impartial advice (which rarely comes free). But in interviews, deputy DoL secretary Phyllis Borzi, the champion of the fiduciary proposal, has emphasized that the caveat emptor standard and the implicit blurring of the sales/advice boundary is not appropriate when tax-deferred retirement savings are at stake.

Saxon acknowledged the DoL’s concern. What’s driving the Borzi initiative, he conceded, is regulators’ frustration over the fact that upwards of $6.5 trillion in tax-deferred savings has already migrated from low-cost, ERISA-regulated defined contribution plans to the rollover IRA arena, where the costs are sometimes much higher and oversight usually comes from SEC and FINRA.      

“If I were a public servant and I wanted to do good by retirement programs and participants, I’d want to make sure I could wrap my arms around the biggest pool of savings in the United States,” he said. “The DoL feels that they need to exercise some control over the IRA space. FINRA and the SEC are doing some of the same things. There will be a lot more scrutiny of IRAs in the months to come.”

Saxon suggested that there might not be a need for a fiduciary regulation at all, because providers of advice are already, by definition, fiduciaries. Even if the fiduciary definition were expanded, the investment industry would certainly lobby for exemptions that would allow certain salespeople to provide certain kinds of advice without running afoul of the regulations.

Several such exemptions already exist, he said: “So, you have to ask, is all this really needed?”

© 2014 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.