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Crump, MetLife form brokerage tie

In a new brokerage relationship between Crump Life Insurance Services and MetLife, Crump will provide sales support, underwriting, technology and brokerage services to MetLife’s financial professionals, Crump announced in a release.

Representatives from MetLife and its affiliates “will have access to a broad portfolio of non-proprietary products that offer a full spectrum of life-related insurance solutions for their clients, leveraging Crump’s tools, services and technology,” the release said.

The new partnership is effective immediately.

© 2013 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

What the rich think about money

Long-term care and out-of-pocket healthcare costs, combined with financial support for extended-family members pose a significant risk to retirees who are trying to protect accumulated wealth, according to the U.S. Trust 2013 Insights on Wealth and Worth study of 711 American adults with $3 million or more in investable assets. 

The U.S. Trust findings support previous academic studies that found that protection products such as long-term care insurance and life annuities can help prevent the exhaustion of savings or potential legacies by a parents’ or one’s own unanticipated, open-ended health care costs or extreme longevity.

“The majority of people we surveyed grew up in middle-class families and created their own wealth. They don’t see themselves as wealthy, and many are unaware of risks and circumstances that grow increasingly complex as wealth accumulates,” said Keith Banks, president of U.S. Trust. “The wealthy have been disciplined about protecting their assets from market loss, but may have a false sense of financial security. They are not adequately planning for family health concerns or for the retirement that they want.”  

The wealthy have largely shifted their investment priorities from asset protection to asset growth, the Insights on Wealth and Worth study found. Yet fear still trumps greed in their investment practices. The survey found that:

  • 47% of all respondents have created a financial plan to address long-term care needs that they and their spouse or partner might need, but only 18% have a financial plan that accounts for parents’ long-term care costs.
  • Only 27% of baby boomers and 16% of those over age 68 say they ever expected their parents might ask for financial assistance. Yet, one-third of Generation X and 46% of Generation Y expect their parents or in-laws to rely on them for financial assistance eventually. 
  • 63% of wealthy people feel obligated to support their parents or in-laws if needed, even if it jeopardizes their own financial security, and 55% feel a responsibility to provide financial assistance for siblings if necessary.
  • 56% of wealthy parents say they provide financial support to their adult children.
  • 46% of respondents have supported (not a loan) to adult family members other than their own spouse or partner
  • 69% do not have a financial plan that accounts for the financial needs of any of these other adult family members.
  • 88% of people surveyed say they feel financially secure right now, and 48% feel even more financially secure today than they did five years ago. Women, members of Gen X (adults aged 33 to 48) and the wealthiest of the wealthy feel less confident, and worry about income in retirement.
  • 60% of HNW investors say asset growth is a higher priority than asset preservation, a reversal of goals from a year ago when 58% rated asset protection higher.
  • 63% say however that reducing risk and achieving a lower rate of return is more important than pursuing higher returns by increasing risk.
  • 56% of HNW investors have a large amount of funds still sitting in cash accounts. Only 12% are content leaving their cash on the sidelines, yet only 16% have immediate plans to move it. Two in five plan to gradually invest cash holdings over the next two years, and 35% have no plans to invest it.
  • 57% of respondents say that pursuing higher returns regardless of the tax impact is a higher priority than minimizing taxes. Only 34% feel very well-informed about the impact of recent tax law changes on the total return of their investment portfolio.
  • 37% of respondents (42% of men and 30% of women) feel very well-informed about how the tax law changes affect their income. And two in three respondents do not feel well-informed about strategies available to them to help minimize the impact of taxes on income, investments or their estate.
  • 69% of high net worth investors aren’t changing investment strategy in order to minimize taxes.
  • 86% of wealthy investors agree that a long-term buy-and-hold approach still is the best growth strategy, with 35% strongly agreeing with this.
  • 62% of high net worth households, including 52% of those still working, are very confident they will have sufficient income in retirement, in contrast to the rest of the U.S. population.
  • 60% of non-retirees have been calculating their retirement income by reviewing expected distributions from retirement savings accounts. Yet a large number have not adequately accounted for inflation (47%), taxes on investment income (52%), life expectancy (56%), the cost of long-term care (62%), or financial support their children (80%) or parents (82%) might need.
  • 75% of respondents have not adequately factored into their retirement planning any increase or decrease in real estate values. Yet 23% of retirees and 52% of non-retirees (including 39% of baby boomers) say primary residential real estate is important to funding their retirement.
  • 33% of high net worth adults under the age of 49 envisions working beyond age 65. Meanwhile, 60% of Boomers, many already in retirement, now have plans to work beyond age 65.
  • Once retired from their current occupation, 11% of respondents say they are likely to continue working full-time in a new endeavor and 41% expect to continue working on a part-time basis. More than half (54%) of the wealthy would like to spend time volunteering.
  • About 25% of survey respondents attribute the majority of their wealth to an inheritance. Those who have inherited wealth are more likely to want to leave an inheritance themselves.
  • 77% of people who inherited the majority of their wealth, and 63% of those who earned it, consider it an important goal to leave a financial inheritance to the next generation.
    Two in three baby boomers do not expect to receive an inheritance; 57% of adults under the age of 32 do expect an inheritance.
  • 64% of baby boomers, compared to 78% of adults younger than age 32 and 72% of those over age 68, think it’s important to leave an inheritance.
    Only 42% of wealthy parents agree strongly that their children are/will be well-prepared to handle their inheritance. Few wealthy parents believe their children will be mature enough to handle their wealth before the age of 25.
  • Just 39% of parents whose children already are age 25 or older have fully disclosed their wealth to children, while 53% have disclosed just a little and 8% have disclosed nothing at all.  
  • 88% of parents agreed that their children would benefit from discussions with a financial professional. One in three (31%) respondents received formal financial training themselves from a professional advisor. Yet only 16% of parents have provided, or have plans to provide, their children with access to formal financial skills training.
  • Two-thirds of wealthy parents say they would rather have their children grow up to be charitable than to be wealthy.
  • 89% of wealthy parents believe their children appreciate the value of a dollar and the privileges of growing up in a family with good fortune. However, half of parents (51%), particularly those with young children, think their children feel entitled to a lifestyle that was worked hard for, and 47% worry that, by growing up without knowing what it’s like to go without, their children may not attain the same level of success.

Despite awareness of the importance of estate planning, Insights on Wealth and Worth found:

  • 72% of respondents do not have a comprehensive estate plan, including 84% of those under the age of 49, and 65% age 49 or older.
  • 55% have never established a trust of any kind, primarily for two reasons: procrastination and the mistaken notion that outlining wishes in one’s will precludes the need for a trust.
  • 60% of respondents have named, or intend to name, their spouse or partner as executor of their estate. Only 32% consider the financial knowledge and skills of the person they name as their executor. Having sufficient legal and financial knowledge was cited as the top difficulty in serving as an executor by those who already have served, particularly by women.
  • 67% of respondents say they have organized their personal, financial, medical and legal records and information in one place, but 46% have not informed the executor of their estate about how to access the records.
  • 55% of respondents say they have organized passwords for accessing digital records or accounts, but 63% have not specified their wishes authorizing access to the passwords or to any online assets.
  • 65% of wealthy households surveyed own investments in some type of tangible asset, ranging from real estate to oil and gas properties to farmland, a trend particularly evident among younger investors. One-third (35%) of investors under the age of 32 say that tangible investments are important to their overall wealth strategy given the current tax, political and economic environment.
  • 60% of wealthy individuals feel that they can have some influence on society by how they invest, and 45% agree that it’s a way to express their social, political and environmental values.
  • Nearly half (46%) of respondents feel so strongly about the impact of their investment decisions that they would be willing to accept a lower return from investments in companies that have a greater positive impact; 44% would be willing to take on higher risk.
  • 51% of those surveyed, including 65% of women and 67% of investors under age 49, think it is important to consider the impact of investment decisions on society and the environment. Yet only one in four investors has reviewed their investment portfolio to evaluate its impact on these concerns.
  • 59% of high net worth individuals dedicate a portion of their wealth to the collection of valuable assets such as such as fine art, watches and jewelry, antiques, fine wines and rare coins and books or classic and high-performance cars. Only about half of those with collections have insurance. Only 19% of collectors have discussed or outlined their wishes for the collection with future heirs.

Additional survey findings from the 2013 U.S. Trust Insights on Wealth and Worth can be found at www.ustrust.com/survey.
Findings are based on a nationwide survey of 711 high net worth and ultra high net worth adults with at least $3 million in investable assets, not including the value of their primary residence. Respondents were equally divided among those with $3 million to $5 million, $5 million to $10 million, and $10 million or more in investable assets. The survey was conducted online by Phoenix Marketing International in February and March of 2013. 

© 2013 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Eight more insurers to issue DIAs: LIMRA

Eight insurance companies plan to introduce their own deferred income annuities (DIA) in addition to the nine who already do, according to a recent LIMRA-CANNEX study of seven DIA products. In its release about the study, LIMRA and CANNEX did not name the eight new entrants.

Also referred to as a longevity annuity, deferred payout annuity, or advanced life-delayed annuity (ALDA), a DIA pays income to the policyholder starting at least 13 months from the policy date. The traditional single-premium immediate income annuity (SPIA) provides income beginning within 13 months after purchase. 

The deferred income annuity is designed to help jump-start the long-awaited annuity boom by appealing to the millions of soon-to-retire Baby Boomers in the U.S. who anticipate needing guaranteed income five to 10 years or more from now.

The LIMRA-CANNEX study, Features in Income Annuities—Immediate and Deferred Income Annuity Designs, noted these differences and similarities of immediate and deferred income annuities.

  • Multiple contributions: Current designs of deferred income annuities differ from immediate income annuities in several ways. One key difference with a DIA is the ability to make multiple contributions before the income start date. Most (four out of seven) of the current products allow you to make multiple contributions into the contract.
  • Income commencement date flexibility: Another difference between the immediate and the deferred income annuity is the ability to choose a wider range of income commencement dates. With the DIA the income can be deferred for as short as 13 months to as long as 45 years. Most (six out of seven) of the current products allow you to change that commencement date. Five of those six companies allow the date to be deferred up to five years after the original payout date. 
  • Liquidity features: Many of the immediate income annuity liquidity features are also available in a DIA. In fact most (five out of seven) DIAs have at least one liquidity feature. Three of the six companies offer the accelerated payment option. Two of the six offer some access to a commuted value of the guaranteed payments. One company offers 100% liquidity (life included) within 60 days of starting income payments.
  • Income flexibility: Most (five out of seven) of the DIAs have a cost-of-living adjustment option. No carriers differentiate the range of COLA rates offered based upon contract types such as life only or period-certain contracts. One insurance company offers a lower maximum COLA rate for deferred income annuities funded by qualified funds. Currently there are no DIA companies that link the payments to the consumer Price Index.

While still a small percentage of the overall income annuity market, the study also showed that deferred income annuity sales reached more than one billion dollars in 2012.

© 2013 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Wealth2k Introduces Social Security Wise™

Aggressive financial advisors are always looking for ideas to pitch to their clients—either to generate revenue, to justify their asset-based fee, or merely to stay in touch.

Sometimes these ideas hide in plain sight—like strategies or software to optimize Social Security benefits—until someone identifies their value. Then everyone else picks up on it.  

Wealth2k has introduced Social Security Wise, a “turnkey prospecting solution” or content-marketing solution that can “help advisors build a bridge to consumers who need assistance in crafting retirement income plans,” according to a release from Wealth2k. The monthly subscription cost is $45/month. There is no term commitment.  

According to Wealth2k Founder & CEO, David Macchia, “Software programs have made it easy for advisors to analyze the results of different Social Security claiming strategies. This has been an important development. But the major challenge facing advisors today isn’t analysis, it’s prospecting. Social Security Wise fills a gaping need in the marketplace for a compliant, consumer-facing solution that generates new prospects for retirement income planning.”

Social Security Wise aims to provide these benefits for financial advisors:

  • Advisor-branded Social Security Learning Center
  • Prospecting tool
  • Lead-generation strategies
  • Compliant content (FINRA comment letters covering Social Security Wise content are available on request.)
  • iPad, iPhone and Android device compatibility
  • Income planning discussion openers
  • Google AdWords marketing module
  • “Drip” mailing campaign tools to drive traffic to the advisor’s website
  • Integration with social networking sites

Wealth2k, Inc., based in suburban Boston, provides The Income for Life Model, an advisor-centric retirement income solution for mass-affluent investors, among other products and services. 

© 2013 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

How to See ‘Unknown Knowns’

The likelihood of “black swan” events and our ability to foresee them or not has been a focus of debate among academics since the financial crisis. It’s not clear if hedge fund managers or other market mischief-makers pay much attention to what academics say about this issue, but maybe they should.

At two conferences this spring, one sponsored by the Wharton School’s Pension Research Council and the other at a Society of Actuaries gathering in Toronto, two specialists in risk-assessment weighed in with their thoughts on the matter. Their presentations were among the most entertaining at their respective conferences.

Guntram Werther, Ph.D., professor of strategic management at Temple University’s Fox School of Business, told actuaries that forecasters who missed the approach of the financial crisis just weren’t very good forecasters. They were blinkered by overspecialization and a fixation on inadequate models. 

Guntram Werther“Just because an event was broadly missed, that doesn’t make it unpredictable,” Werther said. “In many cases, someone, or many people, foresaw it and were ignored.” That was the case in the 2008 financial crisis, where many writers pointed to the dangerous over-expansion of leveraged lending years before the actual crash.

Werther (at right) quoted former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld’s famous remark about “known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns.” But he added that there are also what Irish commentator Fintan O’Toole less famously called “unknown knowns”—information that was available at the time but that an analyst or an economic  model simply missed, for a variety of reasons.

Overspecialized education is one of Werther’s bogeymen. Many of history’s best prognosticators have been people who, however well-trained in a specific field, also have a knowledge of comparative history, philosophy, religion, psychology, as well as different legal, political and economic systems. He came close to advocating a revival of  liberal education, at least at the undergraduate level. 

Dicey

At the Pension Research Council’s annual gathering in Philadelphia, Tim Hodgson, senior investment consultant and head of the Thinking Ahead Group at TowersWatson, explained that our tendency to focus on averages blinds us to the risk of rare but catastrophic events.

More intriguingly, he suggested our analytic tools make a faulty implicit assumption about the nature of time and the existence of parallel universes. They assume that “we have infinite lives all running in parallel,” rather than a single life, he wrote in a paper submitted to the conference.  

Tim HodgsonHodgson (left), whose Thinking Ahead Group has published annual rankings of systemic threats to civilization, explained that we often, and foolishly, rely on averages of alternate outcomes in order to evaluate a decision—as though we could experience all of those outcomes and arrive at a net gain or loss.

He gave the example of rolling a die six times: If you roll numbers one through five, you win an amount equal to 50% of your wealth. If you roll a six, you lose all your wealth. The average of these outcomes—the “expected return”—is a 25% gain, he said, which suggests that you should roll the die.   

But that average masks the fact that you have a one-in-six (16.7%) risk of losing everything you have. Which explains why most people instinctively shy away from an offer like that, Hodgson says. He also points out that catastrophic, irrecoverable losses might be rare in the stock market, they can easily occur if a pension fund becomes insolvent.    

Regarding the retirement savings crisis, Hodgson noted that it’s not hard to imagine an individual socking away 10% of pay for 45 years, earning a real return of 3.5% and funding a 21-year retirement with savings equal to about 10 times final earnings. Any single person might have a good chance of accomplishing that, all things being equal.

But the likelihood that everyone can accomplish this feat is much lower, he points out. Americans are always accused of under-saving. But the current average savings level of about 3.3%, he said, might represent an equilibrium. Additional saving might trigger Keynes’ paradox of thrift, where over-saving leads to under-consumption and an economic slowdown. 

If we’re already saving as much as we can without creating unintended consequences, he adds, then the idea that, collectively, we can all afford the kind of retirement we imagine (based on our experiences during the singular post-World War II boom) is mathematically unlikely. There will be winners and losers—perhaps more losers than winners—but most Americans seem to accept that.    

© 2013 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Do Annuities Reduce Bequest Values?

The widely held view that annuities reduce bequest values is too narrow. Adjustments can be made in retirement portfolios to reduce retirement risk without sacrificing the value of one’s bequest. Here’s how retirees can purchase annuities, adjust allocations in remaining assets and achieve improved retirement outcomes.

An example
Let’s take a 65-year-old retired female with retirement savings of $1 million, who requires $30,000 each year with annual inflation increases. I assume that she has a 22-year average life expectancy and treat longevity as variable in the analysis. I use Monte Carlo simulations of investment performance with stocks assumed to earn an average annual return after inflation of 4.8% with a standard deviation of 20.3%, and bonds assumed to earn a 0% real return with a 5.7% standard deviation.

joe tomlinsonI assume investment expenses of 0.15%. These returns are significantly lower than historical averages and reflect the reasoning in my February 2013 Advisor Perspectives article on asset class returns. Because I’ve assumed lower-than-historical returns, I’ve reduced the withdrawal assumption to 3%, from the more typical 4% used in retirement planning research. (Photo of Joe Tomlinson. This article originally appeared in Advisor Perspectives.)

To measure retirement success, I use the probability of running out of money and expected bequest values. In order to facilitate comparisons in today’s terms, I calculate bequests as present values and use a discount rate of 2.97% after inflation, which is the estimated return for a 65/35 stock/bond portfolio. All the analysis is pre-tax.

If the woman in this example invests in a 65/35 portfolio, the modeling indicates that she will leave an average bequest with a present value of $524,000 and face a 9% probability of depleting her savings during retirement. If she were concerned about the risk of running out of money, an option would be to be to purchase an inflation-adjusted single-premium immediate annuity (SPIA) to provide an income to meet the withdrawal needs.

Based on rates from Income Solutions®, the current payout rate for a 65-year-old female with such an annuity is 4.19%. An annuity generating an initial annual income of $30,000 would cost $716,000, leaving $284,000 to invest. By purchasing the SPIA, she could completely eliminate the risk of depleting her savings, but the present value of her expected bequest would be reduced to $284,000, down from $524,000.

Therefore, purchasing the SPIA would be the equivalent of paying a $240,000 fee today to eliminate the retirement shortfall risk. Given this cost, her reluctance to purchase a SPIA would certainly be understandable. But something is missing from this analysis.

Adjusting for risk
Not only does the SPIA purchase reduce the risk of running out of money, but also it dramatically reduces overall investment volatility. A SPIA is essentially a fixed income investment with the additional benefit of pooled longevity. In effect, the SPIA purchase converts a 65/35 stock/bond portfolio to an 18/82 portfolio, if the $284,000 that is left over is invested 65/35. The reduction in bequest values reflects the shift to fixed income. It does not reflect an inadequate return or other deficiency in the SPIA product.

Conceptually, the stock allocation could be increased for the remaining $284,000 above 65/35 in order to bring overall allocations more in line with the original systematic withdrawal strategy. To analyze the impact, we can compare expected bequest values, but we also need to measure how changes in stock allocations affect the volatility of bequests.

For this analysis, I measure bequest volatility as the change in the present value of bequests from a 1% reduction in average assumed stock returns. I run Monte Carlo simulations with reduced stock returns, and my risk measure is the difference in the expected present value of bequests before and after the return reduction. Strategies with heavier allocations to stocks will show more bequest volatility. The chart below presents outcomes based on this type of analysis.

 Tomlinson Chart A 5-23-2013

Comparison of strategies
Based on this volatility measure, the purchase of the SPIA without changing the allocation of remaining assets reduces risk by almost two-thirds. Even going to 100% stocks with remaining assets is not sufficient to bring the expected bequest back to the systematic withdrawal level, but there is room remaining to increase volatility. One way would be to invest in a higher beta stock portfolio. I tested a portfolio with a beta of 1.25, which raises the real return to 5.85% and volatility to 25.40%.

It brings the expected bequest present value up to $512,000, but it overshoots on the volatility measure, raising it to $102,000. So we are not able to get all the way to the original bequest with the same or lower volatility, but we are able to move substantially in that direction.

Alternate strategies

I also tested strategies using SPIAs somewhat differently and using other annuity products. I’ll briefly describe various strategies and provide a chart comparing outcomes.

Reduced SPIA purchase – If the SPIA rate is greater than the required withdrawal rate (4.19% versus 3% in this example), purchasing a SPIA to cover a portion of withdrawals will lower the percentage withdrawal requirement on the remainder. For example, it would cost $609,000 to purchase a SPIA to provide an inflation-adjusted income of $25,500 (85% of the required $30,000). That would leave $391,000 to provide withdrawals of $4,500 to complete the $30,000 – a withdrawal rate of only 1.15%. So it may be feasible to reduce SPIA purchases slightly and invest more in stocks, without much risk of depleting savings.

SPIAs with fixed annual increases – It’s expensive to purchase SPIAs that provide increases based on actual inflation, as I demonstrated. An alternative is to purchase an annuity with fixed annual step-ups targeting expected inflation. For example, if expected inflation based on Treasury and Treasury inflation-protected securities spreads is 2.30%, the payout rate for a SPIA with 2.30% annual step-ups is 4.91% This beats the 4.19% payout for a true inflation-adjusted SPIA.

Deferred income annuities (DIA) – These products are like SPIAs, but with long deferrals before annuity payments begin. For example, a client could purchases a DIA at age 65 with payments beginning at 85. The product is offered with level payments and with step- ups. There are choices to be made about how to invest funds to support withdrawals during the deferral period. One approach, similar to the SPIA strategy, involves using a bond ladder. Performance will depend on both DIA pricing and yields earned on the bonds.

Variable Annuities with Guaranteed Lifetime Withdrawal Benefits (VA/GLWB) – There are low-cost versions with annual charges on the order of 1.5% (for the annuity, investment expenses and the guarantee), including a directly-offered Vanguard product and institutional products beginning to be offered in 401(k) plans. There are also commission- based higher-priced versions with charges averaging about 3.5%.

The chart below shows outcomes for these strategies, with the systematic withdrawal outcomes repeated at the top for comparison. All of these alternative strategies, except for the VA/GLWB, assume excess funds not needed for annuity product purchases or bond ladders are 100% invested in stocks.

Alternative strategies
Reducing the SPIA purchase to cover 85% of required withdrawals moves further toward the systematic withdrawal bequest outcome, compared to purchasing an SPIA and investing the remainder entirely in stocks (see first chart, $415,000). The probability of failure is not zero, but it is substantially reduced from pure systematic withdrawal, and the bequest volatility measure is about equivalent.

The SPIA with fixed step-ups exceeds the systematic withdrawal expected bequest with similar bequest volatility. The probability of failure is shown as greater than zero because it cannot be precisely measured. Payments will continue for life, but there may be some positive or negative mismatch depending on how actual inflation turns out in relation to the step-ups.

For the DIA strategy, I’ve tested a bond ladder with a nominal yield of 2.35%, as well as a bond ladder with an assumed 1% corporate bond spread. The DIA strategy with a higher- yielding bond ladder gets close to the systematic withdrawal bequest numbers. An advantage the DIA has over the SPIA is that the up-front commitment is much less, and there is more liquidity. Fixed step-ups of 2.30% are assumed for the DIA, so the failure probability is similar to the SPIA with fixed step-ups.

Bringing a VA/GLWB into this comparison presents complications because, for a 65-year- old, these products typically allow 5% withdrawals with potential increases based on investment performance, but those increases are usually less than actual inflation. I analyzed these examples assuming the purchase of a large enough VA to provide some overpayment in the early retirement years to compensate for expected underpayments later.

Because the VA/GLWB product itself involves a mix of stocks and bonds (with a typical maximum stock allocation of 65%), allocating remaining funds 100% to stocks no longer works – it overshoots on volatility. I found that allocating 75% to 80% of the remaining funds to stocks keeps volatility within reasonable bounds. I show examples based on a low-cost product and a high-cost product. The low-cost product does very well on the bequest versus volatility tradeoff – perhaps the best of all the strategies – although this result is uncertain because of all the assumptions and approximations. The higher cost VA/GLWB shows the give-up in bequest value resulting from the higher charges.

Except for the higher cost VA/GLWB, all annuity products used in the examples are low- cost versions, which explains the rough similarity of results for the various strategies. One might be tempted to fine-tune these strategies to determine which is optimal, but the outcomes are results of the particular structure of this example and of the underlying investment assumptions, so I do not believe such fine-tuning is warranted.

When evaluating annuity products, take a holistic view of combinations of products and investment strategies and avoid a narrow focus on only part of the picture.

Conclusion

It is feasible to use a portion of one’s retirement assets to purchase annuities, while aggressively allocating remaining assets in ways that dramatically reduce the risk of depleting savings without sacrificing bequest values. This approach gives advisors more flexibility in choosing which annuity products to recommend. Rather than favoring a particular product, I recommend choosing a low-cost annuity product and making portfolio adjustments to meet objectives. Client characteristics are always important in determining which strategy works best.

Joe Tomlinson, an actuary and financial planner, is managing director of Tomlinson Financial Planning, LLC in Greenville, Maine. His practice focuses on retirement planning. He also does research and writing on financial planning and investment topics.

© Copyright 2013, Advisor Perspectives, Inc. Used by permission.

Lower VA reserves on guarantees boosted life insurer income in 2012: Fitch

Statutory capital growth among life insurers in 2013 will be moderate given the expectation of modest operating earnings growth due to the ongoing effects of low interest rates, according to a new report from Fitch Ratings that reviews statutory trends for U.S. life insurers for 2012 and implications for 2013.

U.S. life insurers reported strong growth in statutory capital and net income in 2012, which will lead to improved statutory dividend capacity in 2013 for parent company debt service and other funding needs, a Fitch release said.

Statutory net income for the Fitch universe of life insurers increased to $34 billion in 2012 compared to $9 billion in 2011, the highest level in five years. The majority of the 2012 net income change came from large variable annuity companies who reported lower reserves on guarantee benefits, which more than offset the negative impact associated with low interest rates. Fitch notes that reporting of hedge-related derivatives performance as a non-operating item can significantly affect the reported levels of net income.

Statutory capital improved 10% in 2012 for the Fitch universe of life insurers, largely driven by retained statutory earnings. As a result, Fitch estimates that the aggregate NAIC risk-based capital improved to 486% at year-end 2012 compared to 465% for 2011. Fitch believes that many insurers will be careful to maintain their RBC levels through 2013 to mitigate perceived risks in the capital markets and low interest rate environment.

Results in 2012 continued to benefit from modest realized investment gains. Overall investment losses are expected to remain low and within Fitch’s expectation of losses over the next 18 months. The source of realized capital losses/impairments appears to be returning to the more traditional sectors of corporate bonds, although structured bonds continue to contribute more than their long-term historic norm largely driven by commercial mortgage-backed securities.

Fitch does not expect a significant improvement in portfolio credit quality or liquidity in 2013 due to the pressure for investment income. Insurers will continue to move more of their portfolios to bonds rated ‘BBB’, discounted structured securities, commercial mortgages loans or limited partnership investments.

© 2013 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Insurance now a riskier business: State Street

A “perfect storm of shifting variables” is pushing insurers to change the way it does business, according to a survey of 300 insurance leaders by State Street Corporation and The Economist Intelligence Unit that is to be released next month.

The study, “Facing the Future: Blueprint for Growth,” highlights three main insurer challenges: risk, regulation and the restructuring of product offerings. Among the findings:

  • 80% of respondents say they are actively considering increasing their allocation to alternative strategies to increase yield, which may add additional, more unfamiliar risk.
  • More than 80% of insurers feel represents a challenge. Only 17% view the regulatory environment as not a challenge.
  • 93% see restructuring product offerings to bring new, innovative products to market quickly as a challenge.
  • 82% of insurance leaders say that effectively allocating capital to the most business critical priorities presents a challenge for them today. Seeking additional capital, however, is creating additional risk for insurance companies that they may not be able to handle.
  • 49% are prioritizing allocations to alternative strategies for action within the next 12 months.
  • 79% of insurers report that investing in more complex asset classes is a challenge for their firm.
  • 55% say that they are looking at re-pricing new business to adapt to market conditions, including low interest rates, within the next 12 months.
  • 82% are concerned about their ability to expand into the Asia-Pacific region successfully but 18% see no difficulty related to expansion.
  • 42% say that insurers’ profitability will increase over the next five years.

“Ultra low interest rates [are] putting pressure on margins and evolving regulation is having a fundamental impact on operating models,” said Joe Antonellis, vice chairman of State Street, in a release. “Many insurance companies are left with operational roadblocks and dependencies — partly as a legacy of… mergers and acquisitions.”

© 2013 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Lincoln Financial expands VA fund options

Lincoln Financial Group today introduced several new investment options for its variable annuity product lines. The new options expand Lincoln’s investment choices for advisors who prefer to work with clients in constructing a customized portfolio.

The new investment options, which seek to reduce exposure to market risks, include seven new options for Lincoln ChoicePlus Assurance products and four new options for American Legacy products.

The new options for ChoicePlus Assurance invest in underlying funds that are managed by BlackRock, Dimensional, Fidelity, MFS and SSgA. 

The new American Legacy funds now allow advisors and their clients to build their own portfolios with Lincoln’s primary living benefit riders. These selections can be combined with a fixed income option, in accordance with Lincoln’s investment guidelines, to create a diversified portfolio.

The ChoicePlus Assurance and American Legacy risk-managed fund lineups are made up of asset allocation options, as well as individual asset class options, including large, mid and small-cap funds, as well as domestic and international market exposure.

The new funds are available to Lincoln’s national network of distribution partners.

© 2013 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Are ‘multi-asset income funds’ for real?

Are “multi-asset income” funds the more-effective successor to “equity income” funds? Or are they an old concept dressed in new clothes, a marketing gimmick aimed at yield-starved, risk-averse investors?

In Europe, established multi-asset income funds enjoyed record inflows in calendar 2012, according to the May issue of The Cerulli Edge-European Monthly Product Trends. Miton, Schroders, BlackRock, Old Mutual, and Deutsche Bank all launched multi-asset income funds in the past year.

“As talk of a gravy train gains currency, however, now is a good time to consider what lies beneath the multi-asset income label,” said Barbara Wall, a director at Cerulli Associates, in a release. “Multi-asset income funds are not easily categorized but a key selection criterion for advisors and end users is the number and range of assets that funds have exposure to. A multi-asset income fund that restricts exposure to equities, cash, and bonds does not cut the mustard.” 

“If this strategy is to gather momentum and knock equity income off its perch, managers will need to diversify more, delve into specialist areas, and take risks,” said Yoon Ng, a Cerulli associate director. “A snappy fund label will spark interest but a sustainable high yield and a commitment to capital preservation will keep that interest alive.”

Other Cerulli findings:

  • As part of its growth strategy, La Francaise Asset Management has decided to launch a new incubation vehicle for distributors following a successful year for international fund sales (which represented 31% of the group’s total inflows
    in 2012). The manager also plans to launch a new distribution platform in France, CD Partenaires, with an asset pool of €2.1 billion (US$2.7 billion). Meanwhile boutique Mandarine Gestion, in an effort to grow its business domestically and internationally, will be split into two specialist units: asset allocation and stock-picking. 
  • Italian investors appear to be increasingly adventurous: asset allocation, dynamic mixed assets, global high-yield bonds, emerging market, and euro corporate high-yield bonds were the top five best-selling sectors in the market during the first quarter, gathering net inflows of €5.8 billion. Franklin Templeton funds attracted €1 billion of NNF from retail and institutional investors in March, topping the month’s sales chart.
  • Following in PIMCO’s footsteps, more U.S. managers are approaching the European market by launching European versions of successful funds in their home markets. Lately, Matthews Asia has rolled out a UCITS version of its Asia Small Companies funds, while Polen Capital Management is targeting U.K., Swiss, and Scandinavian investors by launching a UCITS version of its U.S. growth fund.

© 2013 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Can’t win for losing

Prudential Financial’s newly released 2013-2014 African American Financial Experience study shows that many African Americans are experiencing financial pain. The results of the study suggest the old expression, “can’t win for losing,” describes the predicament of many in the black community.   

African Americans are significantly more likely to have debt (94%) than the general popula­tion (82%). Credit card debt, student loan debt, and personal loans are all significantly higher in the African American community. College-educated African Americans report student loan debt at a ratio of nearly 2:1 compared with all college-educated Americans.

If the Social Security claiming age were raised, African Americans would be disproportionately hurt, the findings suggest. The average retirement age for African Americans is 56, or three years lower than the U.S. average.

Averages can be misleading, of course, and they undoubtedly obscure the successes of many black Americans. “Approximately 4 in 10 households surveyed have annual incomes of at least $75,000, and nearly a quarter earn $100,000 or more. Half of African Americans surveyed said they feel better off financially than a year ago, while only 19% say they feel worse,” said Charles Lowrey, Prudential’s chief operating officer, U.S. businesses.

Defensive, not aggressive

The African-American financial stance is more defensive than aggressive, the study showed. The U.S. economy has disproportionately enriched owners of stocks, bonds and mutual funds over the past 30 years, while reducing opportunities for blue-collar workers, but relatively few African Americans own IRAs, mutual funds, stocks or bonds, according to the study.

The study indicated that the African American financial experience is largely defined by

  • Family-oriented priorities and goals
  • Greater ownership of protection-oriented financial products
  • Greater reliance on faith-based organizations for financial education
  • Financial decisions driven by women
  • Earlier retirement

Across all levels of affluence, African Americans are 13% less likely than the general population to have been contacted by a financial advisor. Half of African Americans surveyed say an advisor could improve their financial decisions, only 19% say they have a financial advisor.

 “While the general population’s financial confidence is driven largely by level of asset accumulation and macroeconomic factors, African Americans’ financial confidence is shaped by a broader and balanced array of factors, including life insurance protection, level of debt and expenses, and health care costs,” Prudential said. The study also found that:

  • African Americans own insurance products, such as life and disability, at equal or greater rates compared to the general population, but are about half as likely as the general population to own investment products, such as IRAs, mutual funds, stocks and bonds.
  • African Americans’ priorities are “adequately protecting loved ones, leaving an inheritance and funding education,” said Sharon Taylor, senior vice president and head of human resources at Prudential.
  • African Americans are more likely to live in multi-generational and female-headed households, and to be financially responsible for supporting other family members. Of those surveyed, 57% provide financial support to another family member. African Americans are twice as likely as the general population to be providing financial support to unemployed friends and family.
  • Student loan debt also was reported as a significant obstacle to wealth building for African Americans. College-educated African Americans are twice as likely to have student loan debt.
  • While nearly half of African Americans say they have a 401(k) or other workplace retirement plan, and 8 in 10 of those currently eligible are contributing, African Americans’ balances within employer plans are less than half those of the general population’s, in part due to loans and withdrawals. Three in 10 have taken loans from their plan, citing the need to repay other debt.

The study is based on a March 2013 poll of 1,153 Americans who identify as African American or Black and 471 general population Americans on a broad range of financial topics. Respondents are age 25-70, with a household income of $25,000 or more and some involvement in household financial decisions.

Among those meeting the survey criterion of $25,000 or more in household income, the median household income was $61,000. The overall margin of sampling error is +/- 5% for African Americans and +/- 6% for the general population.

The 2013-14 African American Financial Experience is Prudential’s second assessment of financial trends and attitudes in the African American community. As in the inaugural survey, only about a quarter of African Americans feel any financial services company has effectively shown support to the community.

© 2013 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Annuity Sales Decline in 1Q 2013: LIMRA

The annuity industry is used to insults. Now it has to get used to injuries. It’s as if Ben Bernanke’s less-than-zero monetary policy, so supportive of the equities market, were designed specifically to punish the annuity industry. With thousands of Boomers reaching age 65 each week, the industry finds itself hobbled exactly when it should have surged.    

Sales in every annuity product category except deferred income annuities, a newcomer, shrank in the first quarter of 2013 compared to the year-ago quarter, according to LIMRA’s first quarter 2013 U.S. Individual Annuities Sales survey, based on 94% of the market.

And it no longer seems to be true that VA sales go up when equities go up. VA sales grew only one percent in the first quarter, compared to 4Q 2012, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached record highs, breaking the 15,000 barrier. 

limra 1q 2013 annuity sales chart

Total annuity sales fell six percent in the first quarter of 2013, to $51.7 billion. Variable annuity sales shrank four percent in the first quarter to $35.5 billion — their sixth consecutive quarter of YoY declines. This was one percent higher than in the fourth quarter of 2012, however. VA guaranteed living benefit election rates were steady at 84% in the first quarter.

“VA sales continue to struggle despite sustained equity market gains,” said Joseph Montminy, assistant vice president and director of LIMRA annuity research. “In addition, all significant fixed annuity product types declined in the first quarter of 2013. In many ways, the current market is more challenging to many annuity manufacturers than the recent financial crisis.”

Total fixed annuity sales slipped to $16.2 billion in the first quarter, down 11% compared with prior year. It was the eighth consecutive quarter of declines. After record high sales in 2011 and 2012, first quarter indexed annuity sales dropped four percent to $7.8 billion, its lowest level in two years.

Election rates of guaranteed lifetime withdrawal benefit (GLWB) riders on indexed annuities remain strong. In the first quarter, 72% of consumers elected a GLWB rider, when available. LIMRA estimates that 88% of indexed annuities products in the market offer GLWB riders.

Sales of deferred income annuities (DIA) reached $395 million in the first quarter of 2013, 147% higher than in the first quarter of 2012. Since the start of 2012, four companies have entered the DIA market. The growing interest in this market has existing players launching new or refined products, while other companies are exploring whether to enter the market. Fixed immediate annuities fell six percent in the first quarter, totaling $1.7 billion.

Fixed-rate deferred annuity sales experienced another quarter of steep declines, down 25% in the first quarter to $5.2 billion. That’s an 80% drop since 1Q 2009, when sales of fixed-rate deferred annuities were $26 billion. Book value sales declined 26% in the first quarter to $4.2 billion; market-value adjusted (MVA) sales were $1.0 billion, down 23% compared with the first quarter of 2012.

© 2013 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Swan Dive

The likelihood of “black swan” events and our ability to foresee them or not has been a focus of debate among academics since the financial crisis. It’s not clear if hedge fund managers or other market mischief-makers pay much attention to what academics say, but maybe they should.

At two conferences this spring, one at the Wharton School’s Pension Research Council and the other at a Society of Actuaries gathering in Toronto, two specialists in risk-assessment weighed in with their thoughts on the matter. Their presentations were among the most entertaining at their respective conferences.

Guntham Werther, Ph.D., professor of strategic management at Temple University’s Fox School of Business, told actuaries that forecasters who missed the approach of the financial crisis just weren’t very good forecasters. They were blinkered by overspecialization and a fixation on inadequate models. 

“Just because an event was broadly missed, that doesn’t make it unpredictable,” Werther said. “In many cases, someone, or many people, foresaw it and were ignored.” That was the case in the 2008 financial crisis, where many writers pointed to the dangerous over-expansion of leveraged lending years before the actual crash.

Werther quoted former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld’s famous remark about “known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns.” But he added that there are also what Irish commentator Fintan O’Toole less famously called “unknown knowns”—information that was available at the time but that an analyst or an economic  model simply missed, for a variety of reasons.

Overspecialized education is one of Werther’s bogeymen. Many of history’s best prognosticators have been people who, however well-trained in a specific field, also have a knowledge of comparative history, philosophy, religion, psychology, as well as different legal, political and economic systems. He came close to advocating a revival of  liberal education, at least at the undergraduate level. 

Dicey

At the Pension Research Council’s annual gathering in Philadelphia, Tim Hodgson, senior investment consultant and head of the Thinking Ahead Group at TowersWatson, explained that our tendency to focus on averages blinds us to the risk of rare but catastrophic events.

More intriguingly, he suggested our analytic tools make a faulty implicit assumption about the nature of time and the existence of parallel universes. They assume that “we have infinite lives all running in parallel,” rather than a single life, he wrote in a paper submitted to the conference.  

Hodgson, whose Thinking Ahead Group has published annual rankings of systemic threats to civilization, explained that we often, and foolishly, rely on averages of alternate outcomes in order to evaluate a decision—as though we could experience all of those outcomes and arrive at a net gain or loss.

He gave the example of rolling a die six times: If you roll numbers one through five, you win an amount equal to 50% of your wealth. If you roll a six, you lose all your wealth. The average of these outcomes—the “expected return”—is a 25% gain, he said, which suggests that you should roll the die.   

But that average masks the fact that you have a one-in-six (16.7%) risk of losing everything you have. Which explains why most people instinctively shy away from an offer like that, Hodgson says. He also points out that catastrophic, irrecoverable losses might be rare in the stock market, they can easily occur if a pension fund becomes insolvent.    

Regarding the retirement savings crisis, Hodgson noted that it’s not hard to imagine an individual socking away 10% of pay for 45 years, earning a real return of 3.5% and funding a 21-year retirement with savings equal to about 10 times final earnings. Any single person might have a good chance of accomplishing that, all things being equal.

But the likelihood that everyone can accomplish this feat is much lower, he points out. Americans are always accused of under-saving. But the current average savings level of about 3.3%, he said, might represent an equilibrium. Additional saving might trigger Keynes’ paradox of thrift, where over-saving leads to under-consumption and an economic slowdown. 

If we’re already saving as much as we can without creating unintended consequences, he adds, then the idea that, collectively, we can all afford the kind of retirement we imagine (based on our experiences during the singular post-World War II boom) is mathematically unlikely. There will be winners and losers—perhaps more losers than winners—but most Americans seem to accept that.    

© 2013 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Dicey

As strange as it may appear, much of finance and economics implicitly assumes we have infinite lives all running in parallel. To illustrate the point, consider the following gamble.

Experiment 1

You will roll a fair die and if you roll any number from one to five I will pay you 50% of your current wealth, including the present value of your future earnings. This is a thought experiment so we will gloss over my ability to pay – assume my credit is pristine. Imagine how much better your life would be if you were one-and-a-half times richer in the time it took to roll a die. The downside, paltry in comparison, is that if you roll a six you will pay me your entire wealth – house, pension pot, all future earnings, the lot. Will you take the gamble?

The way we have been trained to analyze the gamble means that we will consider all the possible future outcomes and then weight them in accordance with their probability. In effect we freeze time and take multiple copies of the world and then run the six versions forward as ‘parallel universes’.

In one of those worlds a one is rolled and we pocket a 50% gain in wealth. In the second a two is rolled with the same result. In the sixth world a six is rolled and we lose all our wealth. Having exhausted all the possibilities we travel back in time to the present and do our sums.

The expected return of the gamble is the ensemble average – the average of all the possible independent outcomes. In this case the expected return is 25% and so we would be ‘crazy’ not to take it.

So would you take the gamble? The answer is typically ‘no’.

Instinctively, something doesn’t feel right. Either you don’t trust my credit, or the ensemble average (expected return or expected value) is misleading in some way. So let’s consider the time average instead. Instead of rolling the die once in each of six parallel universes, we will stay in our familiar universe and roll the same die six times in succession.

We compute the time average by taking each of the six possible independent outcomes and making them occur one after the other in our single, real, universe. We now compound our returns over the six periods and take the sixth-root to calculate our per-period expected (time average) return. It doesn’t matter what order we roll each of the numbers one to six, we will lose all our wealth and so the time average is negative, and in a big way (minus-100%).

So the ensemble average is misleading. The 25% expected return unhelpfully disguises the meaningful (16.7%) likelihood that we lose everything.

The point of this thought experiment is to introduce the notion that we cannot go backwards in time, as once we have lost everything we can’t go back and try again. The more subtle point is that the traditional calculation we use, the expected return (ensemble average), effectively under-weights the significance of extreme risks.

Experiment 2

We can illustrate this with a more realistic thought experiment. Consider a world, in which we are investing our portfolio of financial assets, where there are two types of outcomes; good outcomes, which produce a return of five percent and occur almost all the time, and extreme outcomes which only occur once in the distribution but cause severe or total loss.

If the ensemble average truly does understate the significance of the single extreme event then it will consistently overestimate the likely return our portfolio will achieve relative to the return the time average suggests we will achieve.

Table 2 shows that this is indeed the case for a number of ‘runs’ of our thought experiment world. The pairs of columns represent runs for worlds with different probabilities for the single extreme outcome starting with one-in-1000 and moving right to one-in-100. The rows also show different worlds, where the severity of portfolio loss increases from 99% in the first row to 100% in the bottom row.

Note that for all 20 runs (combinations of probability and severity) the ensemble average return is always higher than the time average return, and in some cases significantly higher. In addition, please note that once the probability of the extreme event gets up to one-in-100, or higher, then 99 good outcomes of five percent are wiped out by a single extreme event.

Finally, note the difference in the time average return between extreme losses of 99.999% and 100%. Like our artificial die throwing experiment above, once you have lost all your wealth the game is over and your return is minus-100%, whether that occurs in the first period or the last period. Losing 99.999% of your portfolio would clearly be painful, but the little that is left can then start to grow again. Essentially this is highlighting the difference between an existential risk and a risk where ‘life’ continues into the next period, albeit in very poor shape.

Table 2 here

Now, it is possible to object that a loss on a portfolio of 99% or more is too extreme to realistically contemplate. The point of a portfolio, after all, is to diversify against such extreme losses. Clearly this is a valid objection; however this is a thought experiment so the value is in what it teaches rather than the realism.

That said, I believe that some of the extreme risks that we discuss below* could indeed cause portfolios of financial assets to become worthless. Besides, there are several historical examples of entire stock market losses.

Returning to the learning point though, rather than consider a literal 99% loss (or greater) instead consider what effect a large portfolio loss could have on a retirement fund. Here you can mentally adjust ‘large’ as you see fit, but perhaps start with a 50% loss and adjust higher and lower.

If the retirement fund is a defined benefit arrangement and the sponsoring employer is now small relative to the fund, or has ceased trading, then I would argue that a large, and feasible, portfolio loss can represent an existential event in that context. By ‘existential’ in this instance I mean that the mission of the retirement fund will have failed at that point. The assets will run out before the liabilities are paid and, absent an insurance arrangement, some of the beneficiaries will receive nothing. So for them at least this would equate to a total portfolio loss.

If instead the retirement fund was a defined contribution arrangement then it is less likely that the large portfolio loss would qualify as existential. This is due to the fact that there is no contractual benefit to be broken. Instead the members ‘get what they get’ and the adjustment mechanism is up to the individual member, perhaps by accepting a lower standard of living in retirement than hoped for. Even here, however, not all members are equal.

A 50% loss for a 29-year-old is fundamentally different to a 50% loss for a 59-year-old, and the older member may be tempted to consider that they had suffered a loss bordering on the existential. The practical takeaway is that avoiding, or reducing the probability of 100% (existential) losses is incredibly valuable and should become a top priority.

I am arguing that extreme risks matter, and deserve more attention than they have been given thus far. In addition, the global economic environment continues to be characterized by significant imbalances and consequently is not in good shape to withstand any further major shocks.

Partly as a consequence of economic conditions and the ever-present risk of extreme events, but also due to very nature of the retirement system and Keynes’s paradox of thrift, I believe that retirement for the masses (as currently configured in terms of length, quality of life, and degree of financial freedom) is at serious risk.

Or, rather, that retirement as currently configured was never affordable, but this fact was hidden by demographic and debt trends over many decades. Serious collective discussion and actions could lessen this risk to retirement for the benefit of all—albeit that the most obvious action is to lower the general level of expectations concerning retirement.

© 2013 TowersWatson.

“An inoculation, not a depredation”

There may be no need to worry about an all-out administration assault on the retirement industry’s tax preferences.

At a semi-private meeting not long ago, a government official of a fairly high rank was asked a pointed question by a member of the retirement industry.

“Why is the government discouraging business owners from sponsoring 401k plans by proposing a cap of $3 million on accumulations in tax-favored accounts?” she asked. “Doesn’t that send the wrong message?”

The government official (I’d like to name him but the meeting was by invitation. It doesn’t matter anyway.) answered at great length before finally asking the questioner to think of the $3 million cap “as an inoculation rather than a depredation.”

An inoculation “produces or boosts immunity.” A depredation is an “attack.”

Though the statement was probably preceded—I can’t remember—by a standard disclaimer that the speaker’s opinions were solely his own, I understood him to mean that if the retirement industry accepts a cosmetic reduction of its tax preferences, the Obama administration won’t threaten to take away any more of them. No slippery slope. Just old-fashioned political horse-trading.

*       *       *

Mark Cortazzo, founder of MACRO Consulting Group in Parsippany, N.J., has reviewed masses of variable annuity contracts with considerably more care and attention than most people devote to, say, their new car owner’s manuals.

Now he has set up a new business to show owners of rich “arms-race” era VA contracts how to use their contracts to maximum advantage. And to the issuer’s maximum pain. 

Cortazzo’s venture, called Annuity Review, sponsored a booth at the recent National Association of Personal Financial Advisors spring conference in Las Vegas. The energetic and voluble Cortazzo, a New Jersey high school pole-vaulting champion, was there to help vault Annuity Review’s services into the consciousness of fee-only advisors.

RIJ will have more to say about Annuity Review during our focus on VAs in July. For the moment, we’ll summarize: Cortazzo aims to charge individuals $199 to analyze up to three existing VA contracts (he offers wholesale rates to advisors whose clients have VA contracts). Each additional review will cost $49.

There’s hidden gold in those six-, seven- and eight year-old contracts. They contain some of the richest living and death benefits that VA shoppers will probably ever see. But most contract owners don’t know that.

Fee-only advisors encounter the contracts only when they overhaul the portfolios of incoming clients. Usually, the fee-only folks don’t know from VAs. So they tell the contract owners to surrender the contract ASAP and re-allocate the separate account assets to basic investments.

But that would be foolish, says Cortazzo, who knows how to mine the contracts—by, for instance, extracting cash without nullifying the guarantees, or by maximizing the value of the roll-up, or by integrating the death benefit into an estate plan. (Cortazzo isn’t the first or only one to recognize this opportunity, but few if any others are seizing it so deliberately.) 

The birth of Annuity Review is unwelcome news for the life insurers who, while tending the tens of billions of dollars in those books of business, dearly hope that most contract owners will surrender them or exchange out of them or ignore the riders they’ve paid for. Otherwise, too many of the rich promises that issuers made before the financial crisis could return to haunt them.

*       *       *

I felt frustrated after reading Paul Sullivan’s article about annuities (“Getting the Full Picture on Annuities and Insurance,” May 11, 2013) in the New York Times. The article mashed-up all kinds of annuities into a single journalistic stew. And it seemed to be written in a pitch too high for ordinary anxious Boomers to hear.    

The average reader might finish the Times’ article and conclude that every annuity offers every feature offered by any annuity. The costs, features, and benefits of fixed, variable, deferred, immediate, indexed, load and no-load products all seem to be attributed to “annuities.” To try to understand annuities based on a reading of this article would be like trying to untangle an electrical system where all the wires are black instead of yellow, white, red, blue, or green.

This defect characterizes a lot of general-audience reporting about annuities. To describe all types of annuities in one article is to create confusion and rejection. Sullivan’s story was actually more about tax deferral and the role that annuities play in tax-reducing strategies. The reporter’s main question was, “Given the lure of tax deferred savings, how should people weigh the risks and downsides of insurance and annuities?”

The author eventually admitted the error in viewing annuities so narrowly, however. At the end of the story, he quoted an advisor as saying that most people shouldn’t think about life insurance or annuities as “plug-ins for something else”—i.e., tax dodges—but as “risk-adjusted investments” that mitigate the impact of risks that “we really can’t do anything about,” like early death (in the case of life insurance) or outliving our savings (in the case of annuities).  

© 2013 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

The Kreppa that Almost Melted Iceland

REYKJAVIK, ICELAND—Until the autumn of 2008, Iceland was best known for its Northern lights, geothermal springs and volcanoes with hard-to-pronounce names. Then this tiny Nordic country suddenly became the poster child of the Global Financial Crisis. 

Roughly the size of Maine with a fourth as many people, Iceland became mired in the deepest recession Europe had seen in decades. The tiny but sturdy Icelandic economy, with a GDP of less than $15 billion, suddenly stopped. The value of the currency plunged. Interest rates soared.

The country’s public pension assets weren’t immune to the financial storm. At the onset of the “Kreppa,” as Icelanders call the crisis, Hrafn Magnusson, the managing director of the National Association of Pension Funds (NAPF), predicted that the country’s pension funds might shrink by up to 20%. The eventual drawdown was worse.

“The bank crisis affected most of Icelandic pensions funds and on average they lost about 20-30% of assets in the year 2008,” Gunnar Baldvinsson, the chairman of the Icelandic Pension Funds Association (IPFA), told RIJ. The IPFA, whose office overlooks vast mountains and a glacier, is the umbrella organization for all 31 Icelandic pension funds.

Iceland has made a solid comeback since then, however. It helped a lot when the country’s Supreme Court ruled in 2010 that bank loans indexed to foreign currencies were illegal. Icelanders who had taken out the loans in Icelandic kronur could repay them in (depreciated) kronur. With their personal debt load lightened, Icelanders began to spend again, buoying the economy.

The nation’s pension assets have similarly rebounded, and pensions mean a lot here. Whether it’s the diet of dried fish or the singular purity of its gene pool, Iceland has the world’s longest male life expectancy at birth—80 years. For Icelandic women, it’s a hearty 84 years. (Average life expectancy at birth for Americans is 78.7 years, according to 2010 data from the Centers for Disease Control.) Studies show that most Icelanders believe in elves; they also believe in saving carefully for retirement.

Icelandic pensions

Iceland’s pension system, which differs somewhat from other pension structures in Europe, has three tiers: a tax-financed old-age pension, a system of mandatory occupational pension schemes that are co-funded by employers and employees, and a voluntary defined contribution saving plan.

“Public pensions are fully financed by taxes,” said a director at the Central Bank of Iceland, who spoke on condition of anonymity. “In most cases, the old-age pension is paid from the age of 67. It is divided into a basic pension and a supplementary pension. Both are means-tested, but income from other pensions is treated differently from [non-pension] income; the level at which it begins to reduce the supplementary pension is higher.” 

The minimum basic pension in Iceland equals about 14% of the average earnings of unskilled workers. The combination of income from the basic pension and the supplemental pension amounts to about 71% of the average pre-retirement unskilled wage.  

The second-tier pension, which is more complicated, is paid from a public pension fund and general funds. According to a spokesperson for Prime Minister Jóhanna Sigurðardóttir, public pensions are for individuals who work for the state. The actuarial position of public funds is currently negative by roughly ISK 440 billion ($3.64 billion) or about 30% of GDP. Roughly 85% of the Icelandic labor force is unionized and participates in the public pension, whose benefits are guaranteed by the government.

The general funds aren’t guaranteed. If they underperform, benefits are cut. The general funds, however, have a positive actuarial position of about ISK 200 billion ($1.65 billion). The three largest general pension funds in Iceland are: Lsj. Starfsmanna Ríkisins (Pension Fund for State Employees), which has ISK379.5 million (US $2.9 million); Lsj. Verzlunarmanna (Pension Fund of Commerce), which holds ISK345.5 million (US $2.7 million); and Gildi Lífeyrissjóður (Gildi Pension Fund), which has ISK265.3 million (US $2 million). Each fund has its own asset management team and chief investment officer.   

The final tier is financed by voluntary, tax-favored defined contributions. “Employees are allowed to deduct from their taxable income a contribution to authorized individual pension schemes of up to 2% of wages,” said the Central Bank director. “Employers must match the supplementary contribution up to a limit of 2%. The pension savings are not redeemable until the age of 60 and must be paid in equal installments over a period of at least seven years.” In other words, the DC savings can serve as an income bridge until the basic and supplementary pension benefits begin.

In 2008-2009, these funds, not unlike retirement accounts in the U.S., lost up to 30% of their value, then rebounded. Before the crash, at year-end 2007, total assets of the pension funds within the IPFA amounted to ISK1.7 trillion (US $13 billion). By the end of 2011, according to the most recent data, IPFA assets totaled ISK2.1 trillion (US $16 billion). Iceland’s GDP in 2011 was ISK1.6 trillion ($13.9 billion).

Baldvinsson at the IPFA, said, “The pension funds had performed very well for a long period before the crisis and have done quite well since 2009. On average the real return from 1980 to 2012 is 4.4%.”

Frozen assets

In hindsight, Iceland lacked the appropriate regulatory framework to support its ambitious banking endeavors during the1990s. Applying what it called “New Modern Vikings” economics, Iceland privatized its banks in the early 1990s. Deposits poured in from overseas, and banks lent money out even faster than it came in. The assets of Iceland’s three largest banks eventually grew to 10 times the Icelandic GDP.

When the global meltdown came and deposits were withdrawn, Iceland fell hard. Along with soaring inflation, a depreciated currency, and unmanageable foreign-denominated debt, Iceland’s credit rating got slammed for several quarters. But Iceland’s economy has largely stabilized and recovered from the crisis. Without embracing extreme austerity, the government reduced public spending and raised taxes on high-income residents. A deficit that reached nearly 14% of GDP in 2009 fell to 2.3% in 2012.

Credit rating agencies have taken notice. In February 2013, Moody’s Investors Services changed the outlook on Iceland’s Baa3 rating from negative to stable. The “decision to revise the outlook to stable is based on the reduced event risk following the European Free Trade Association’s court decision in January, which adds to a series of positive developments in Iceland over the past 12 months,” Moody’s said.

“The Icelandic economy has clearly emerged from the crisis-induced recession and is now expanding at a reasonable pace. Moody’s expects real GDP growth at around 2.5% this year, following growth of 2.6% in 2011 and an estimated 2.2% in 2012,” wrote analysts at the credit rating agency. “While the economic slowdown in the EU continues to negatively affects Iceland’s exports, private consumption and investment have been strong and are expected to continue to support Iceland’s growth in 2013.”

“We survive”

As for Icelanders themselves, the Kreppa was certainly unsettling. “I worked my [whole] life and did the right things, and I didn’t know what was going to happen,” said Steinunn Pétursdóttir, a retired nurse. “There was a lot of fear and we didn’t know if [benefits] would be cut.”

Einar Magnusson, a worker in one of Iceland’s bank, lost his job at the height of the crisis in early 2009. As the nation’s unemployment rate quadrupled, Magnusson considered leaving the country. “I thought about packing up my home, my family, and moving to Norway,” he told RIJ.

“But, with my children so young and in school, and the rest of our family here in Iceland, it was a last resort option.” Then his Icelandic ingenuity came into play. “I decided to launch a consulting business, and that became something great,” he said. “That’s how it works here. We’re tough, we survive.”

© 2013 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Partial lump-sum payouts for Social Security?

To the frustration of many academics and public policy makers, most Americans claim Social Security earlier (near age 62) rather than later (until age 70), and therefore get a longer period of lower monthly benefits instead of a shorter period of larger ones.

Hoping to encourage more people to work longer, delay Social Security payments, and boost their incomes at higher ages, a team of retirement researchers from Goethe University in Frankfurt, Germany and the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania have proposed a change in Social Security policy that involves a lump sum payment at retirement.

The researchers suggest that instead of giving Americans increasingly higher monthly benefit for waiting past age 62 to claim benefits (to a maximum age of 70), the Social Security Administration might present the premium for delay as a lump sum, which they could spend, invest, or use to fund a legacy.

“This lump sum payment would be equal, in present value terms, to the additional benefit stream paid to the worker claiming Social Security benefits after the NRA,” wrote researchers Jingjing Chai, Raimond Maurer and Ralph Rogallo of Goethe University and Olivia Mitchell of Wharton.

“Under the Social Security system’s current rules, a worker who delays claiming her benefit until after the Normal Retirement Age (NRA) is entitled to a benefit increase of about 8% per year that retirement is deferred,” they added.

“In our model, under an actuarially fair lump sum scheme, an individual who opted to work to age 66 instead of claiming benefits at age 65 would then receive a lump sum worth of about 1.2 times her age-65 benefit, plus the age-65 benefit stream for life.

“Similarly, an individual deferring retirement even later, to age 70, would receive a lump sum worth about 6 times the starting-age annual benefit payment, plus the age-65 benefit stream for life.”

Thus, for someone who might have received $1,800 a month at normal retirement age and $2,400 a month if she waited until age 70, could instead receive at age 70 a lump sum payment of  $129,600 and a monthly benefit of $1,800 per month. The researchers believe that such a modified incentive would raise the average retirement age in the U.S. by 1.5 to 2 years. They wrote:

“In years to come, US policymakers will be actively seeking ways to reform Social Security to restore the system to solvency. Proposing cuts in benefits tends to be quite politically difficult.

“By contrast, offering a fair lump sum in place of the delayed retirement annuity credit may be more politically attractive. By (voluntarily) delaying their retirement date due to the lump sum option, workers would continue to pay Social Security payroll taxes for more years, which could help return the system to solvency via additional payroll tax collections.

“Moreover, such a policy could be designed to be cost-neutral, albeit in the real world one would also need to consider additional issues including spouse and survivor benefits, changes in annuity factors, sudden demands for liquidity due to health shocks, and other factors.”

© 2013 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

The Bucket

Northwestern Mutual now 114th on Fortune 500 

Strong financial and sales performance in 2012 helped Northwestern Mutual move up two positions on the FORTUNE 500 list to No. 114, the company said in a release.  

In 2012, Northwestern Mutual set a new annual record for the number of insurance policies purchased. Including life, disability income and long-term care, policies purchased were up 13% over 2011 and represented the most purchased in any year in company history.

The company’s combined 2012 new premium sales for life, disability income and long-term care insurance totaled $1.03 billion, up 11% over 2011. Annuity sales also increased 11% to a record $1.7 billion, the mutual insurer said.

 

Jackson reports 1Q 2013 sales and deposits of $6.2 billion

Strong sales of its Elite Access variable annuity helped Jackson National Life generate more than $6.2 billion in total sales and deposits during the first quarter of 2013, an increase of 6.3% from prior year quarter, the company said in a release.   

 “We continue to price all of our products conservatively to help Jackson maintain a strong capital position, which is in the best interests of all of our stakeholders,” said Mike Wells, president and CEO of the U.S.-based subsidiary of the UK’s Prudential plc.

Elite Access, which features alternative asset investment options and has no lifetime income rider option, recorded $835.6 million and Jackson sold $3.7 billion in other VA contracts (Perspective series) during the first quarter of 2013, compared to $11.5 million and $4.4 billion, respectively, in first quarter 2012.

Following market trends, Jackson’s fixed index annuities sales rose while traditional fixed annuity sales fell. FIA sales totaled $531.4 million, up from $391.7 million in first quarter 2012. First quarter 2013 fixed annuity sales were $223.3 million, down from $255.1 million during the same period in the prior year.

In the first quarter of 2013, Jackson issued $238.7 million in institutional products (guaranteed investment contracts, medium-term notes and funding agreements), up from $118.8 million in the first quarter of 2012.   

Deposits at Curian Capital LLC, Jackson’s asset management subsidiary, totaled $677.6 million during the first quarter. Assets under management in Curian’s core business increased to $9.6 billion as of March 31, 2013, up from $8.9 billion at year-end 2012.

National Planning Holdings, Inc., a Jackson-affiliated network of four independent broker-dealers, reported gross product sales of $5.1 billion during the first quarter of 2013, compared to $4.2 billion in the same period of 2012, yielding IFRS revenue of $225.8 million and $197.0 million in the first quarters of 2013 and 2012, respectively.

During full-year 2012, Jackson ranked:

  • First in total annuity sales, with a market share of 10.2%
  • Second in VA new sales, with a market share of 13.8%
  • First in VA net flows
  • Sixth in total VA assets
  • Sixth in FIA sales, with a market share of 5.1%   
  • Seventh in fixed-rate deferred annuity sales with a market share of 3.6%.

As of May 6, 2013, Jackson had the following ratings:

  • A+ (superior) —A.M. Best financial strength rating, the second-highest of 16 rating categories;
  • AA (very strong) —Standard & Poor’s insurer financial strength rating, the third-highest of 21 rating categories;
  • AA (very strong) —Fitch Ratings insurer financial strength rating, the third-highest of 19 rating categories;
  • A1 (good) —Moody’s Investors Service, Inc. insurance financial strength rating, the fifth-highest of 21 rating categories.

Vanguard launches emerging markets gov’t bond index fund

Vanguard’s new Emerging Markets Government Bond Index Fund, the company’s first international fixed income offering for U.S. investors, is now accepting investments during a subscription period that will extend through the end of business on May 30, 2013.

During this period, the fund will invest in money market instruments as it accumulates sufficient assets to construct a representative, diversified portfolio. The fund’s ETF shares (VWOB) are scheduled to begin trading in early June.

Following the subscription period, the fund will seek to track the Barclays USD Emerging Markets Government RIC Capped Index. The fund will invest solely in U.S. dollar-denominated emerging markets bonds. The benchmark includes about 560 government, agency, and local authority issuers. When necessary, the index will limit weightings of individual debt issuers to meet IRS investment company diversification requirements.

The expense ratios for the ETF, Investor, Admiral, and Institutional Shares of Vanguard Emerging Markets Government Bond Index Fund will range from 0.30% to 0.50%, as shown in the following table. This compares with an expense ratio of 1.21% for the average emerging markets bond fund (source: Lipper, as of December 31, 2012). The fund will assess a purchase fee of 0.75% on all non-ETF shares to help offset the higher transaction costs associated with buying emerging markets bonds.

vanguard emerging markets govt bond chart