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To use more liquid alternatives, advisors need support

Manufacturers and distributors of liquid alternative investments will need to provide more sales support to advisors if they want to expand the use of those investments beyond a “small group of heavy users.”

So says a new report from Practical Perspectives, an independent consulting and research firm that works with wealth management providers and distributors.

The report, “Financial Advisors and Liquid Alternatives 2013 – Insights and Opportunities,” examines the types of advisors who use liquid alternatives and what they look for when selecting alternatives.

The analysis reviews how advisors use mutual funds, ETFs, and variable annuity sub-accounts across a variety of alternative strategies, including:

  • Real estate
  • Commodities/natural resources
  • Managed futures
  • Multi-strategy
  • Global macro
  • Absolute return
  • Long short
  • Market neutral
  • Hedged equity
  • Managed volatility
  • Currency
  • Private equity strategies

According to the report’s authors, most advisors who use alternatives prefer liquid alternatives to enhance portfolio diversification and to manage portfolio volatility and risk. While many advisors use alternatives are used by many advisors, some use them much more than others.

“Only a small number of advisors have significant assets in liquid alternatives, with many others needing enhanced sales support for these products and strategies. It’s critical for product providers and distributors to understand how advisor use of liquid alternatives is evolving and to focus resources on helping advisors apply these solutions for clients,” said Howard Schneider, president of Practical Perspectives co-author of the report, in a release.

The analysis was based on some 330 online surveys conducted in January 2013 with financial advisors and representatives, as well as interviews with advisors and industry executives. Full service brokers, independent brokers, financial planners, Registered Investment Advisors (RIAs), and bank/insurance representatives were interviewed.

Other highlights of the report include:

  • More than 90% of advisors who use alternatives rely on liquid alternatives, but most advisors have less than $10 million in total assets across liquid alternative strategies.
  • Real estate and commodities/natural resources are the most popular alternatives among advisors, but at least seven other alternative strategies including multi-strategy, global macro, and absolute return are used by more than 60% of advisors.
  • Advisors prefer to access liquid alternative strategies through mutual funds, although many also use ETFs or variable annuity sub-accounts.
  • Only a few product providers can claim significant user “mindshare” among advisors.

Many advisors express limited satisfaction with the performance of alternative investments in 2012, but most believe that alternative asset classes are important in constructing portfolios. The detailed report includes 47 exhibits and is available for purchase by contacting [email protected]

© RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Demand for stable value funds is stable: MetLife

Most (86%) plan sponsors have offered stable value as an investment option in their defined contribution (DC) plans for more than two years, and about 78% don’t plan to make changes to their stable value offerings within the next year, according to MetLife’s just-released 2013 Stable Value Study.

Among plan sponsors that added stable value funds within the past two years, 47% said they did so to provide participants with a “capital preservation fund,” 37% said stable value “offers higher interest rates than other comparable investments” and 37% said it was recommended by their recordkeeper/TPA.

MetLife commissioned this study of 140 plan sponsors and 19 stable value fund providers to gain updated insights into the current landscape of stable value products since its inaugural study, released in 2010. The new study can be found at www.metlife.com/stablevaluestudy.

Among the study’s findings:

  • About half of all DC plans offer a stable value fund as an investment option. Estimates of the percentage of DC assets allocated to stable value range from 17% to 37%. At least $540 billion associated with Stable Value Investment Association (SVIA) member companies is allocated to stable value funds.
  • Among plan sponsors that offer stable value as an investment option in a 401(k) or 457 plan, 48% say that their stable value option is backed in part by traditional Guaranteed Investment Contracts (GICs); 31% say they include separate account GICs and 19% have synthetic GICs.
  • The largest plans (10,000 or more participants) are likelier than small plans (100 to 999 participants) to say their offering is backed in part by a synthetic GIC (45% vs. 12%). About 75% of stable value fund providers said their offerings included more than one investment type.
  • More than one in five plan sponsors (22%) that offer stable value funds to their participants did not know what types of stable value contracts back their offering. The low percentage of smaller plans identifying synthetics as elements of their stable value option suggests they may not be aware that pooled stable value funds often incorporate all three types of contracts. This finding is consistent with the results of MetLife’s 2010 Stable Value Study.  
  • When accessing stable value funds, 62% of plan sponsors say they predominantly access or arrange their stable value offerings through a recordkeeper or full-service provider; an additional 13% of plans access stable value funds through a TPA.
  • Only 5% of plan sponsors access stable value through a pooled fund offered by an investment-only stable value manager, and just 4% use a qualified professional asset manager (QPAM) to access their stable value offerings.

© 2013 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Annuity inflows increase in January: DTCC

The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) Insurance & Retirement Services (I&RS) has released a report on activity and trends in the annuity products market for January. The data is available through DTCC’s online Analytic Reporting for Annuities information service.

Annuity inflows processed by I&RS in January increased by 7.4%, to $7.1 billion, from $6.6 billion in December. Inflows were up almost 15% compared to January 2012.  Other data showed that:

  • Out flows, at $6.8 billion, changed insignificantly from December.
  • Net flows increased by almost $466 million in January, from negative $140 million in December, to more than $325 million.
  • IRA accounts attracted 47% of all inflows in January, while non-qualified accounts attracted 41% of inflows.
  • Factoring out flows into the equation, non-qualified accounts experienced negative net cash flows of more than $546 million in January compared to IRA accounts, which had positive net cash flows of more than $884 million for the month.
  • Five large states accounted for over one third of all annuity flows in January: California ($565 million), Florida ($434 million), New York ($408 million), Texas ($386 million), and Pennsylvania ($305 million).
  • Five large metropolitan areas accounted for over 18% of all annuity flows in January: New York, including N. New Jersey and Long Island ($434 million), Los Angeles, including Long Beach and Santa Ana ($213 million), Chicago, including Naperville and Joliet ($166 million), Philadelphia, including Camden, NJ and Wilmington, DE ($154 million), and Detroit, including Warren and Livonia ($153 million).

© 2013 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

HNW investors more bullish on equities this year: Fidelity

A survey of Fidelity customers with at least $250,000 in investable assets was taken during the “Fidelity Viewpoints: Inside/Out” event in Atlanta on March 5. The poll found:

  • Return expectations. High net worth investors (HNW) feel bullish about 2013, with 38% expecting to beat market averages (up from 31% a year ago) and only 15% expecting to lag the market (down from 22% a year ago).   
  • Moving to equities. 49% of HNW investors expect to increase their equity positions in 2013, by an average of 8% each, and 39% expect no change. Only 11% intend to trim their equity allocation.
  • U.S. equities favored. 65% of HNW investors chose U.S. equities as the asset class in which they expect to invest the most over the next year; 9% chose foreign equities and 6% corporate bonds.  
  • Mid and large caps favored. 40% of HNW investors believe that mid cap equities offer the greatest potential upside in the coming year, followed by large cap equities (39%) and small cap equities (21%).
  • Sector leaders. Investors’ favorite sector is health care (17%), followed by energy (15%) and information technology (13%).
  • Tax concerns. Potential income tax increases trouble 34% of respondents, followed by capital gains tax increases (25%).
  • Inflation hedges. 76% of HNW investors worry about inflation; 35% favor fighting inflation with equities and 12% with higher-yielding bonds. 

© 2013 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

 

Fed’s Bubbles to Slaughter Middle Class

When central bankers dedicate their existence to re-inflating asset bubbles, it shouldn’t at all be a surprise to investors that they eventually achieve success. Ben Bernanke has aggressively attempted to prop up the real estate and equity markets since 2008. His efforts to increase the broader money supply and create inflation have finally supported home prices, sent the Dow Jones Industrial average to a record nominal high and propelled the bond bubble to dizzying heights.

The price of any commodity is highly influential towards its consumption. This concept is no different when applied to money and its borrowing costs. Therefore, one of the most important factors in determining money supply growth is the level of interest rates. The Federal Reserve artificially pushed the cost of money down to 1% during the time frame of June 2003 thru June 2004. It is vitally important to note that these low interest rates were not due to a savings glut; but were rather created by central bank purchases of assets. This low cost of borrowed funds affected consumers’ behavior towards debt and was the primary reason for the massive real estate bubble.

Today, the Fed Funds rate has been pushed even lower than it was in the early 2000’s. In addition, unlike a decade ago when the Fed held the overnight lending rate at 1% for “just” one year, the central bank is in the process of pegging short-term rates at near zero percent for what will amount to be at least seven years. However, this time the primary borrower of the central bank’s cheap money isn’t consumers as much as it is the Federal government. Mr. Bernanke has already increased the monetary base by over $2 trillion since the Great Recession began in late 2007, which has helped cause the M2 money supply to grow by $3 trillion–an increase of 40%!

Therefore, it isn’t such a mystery as to why there are now partying down on Wall Street like it is 1999; and we are once again amused with anecdotes of real estate buyers making millions flipping homes.

But all this money printing has not, nor will it ever, restore the economy to long-term prosperity. Despite the Fed’s efforts to spur the economy, GDP growth increased just 1.5% during all of 2012 and grew at an annual rate of just 0.1% during Q4 of last year. The future doesn’t bode much better. This year consumers have to deal with higher taxes, rising interest rates and record high gas prices for March. Don’t look for exports to rescue the economy either. Eurozone PMIs are firmly in contraction territory and Communist China is busy dictating the growth rate of the economy by building more empty cities—clearly an unsustainable and dangerous economic plan.

This means that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates at record lows for significantly longer than the time it took to construct any of its previous bubbles. Also, the central bank will take years to reduce its $85 billion per month pace of monetary base expansion back to neutrality. Meanwhile, surging money growth will continue to force more air into the stock, real estate and bond markets for several years to come.

The ramifications for investors and the economy will be profound. Not only will the economy move gradually toward a pronounced condition of stagflation, but, more importantly, the bubbles being created by the Fed will be far greater and more devastating than any other in history. Equity and real estate prices are already stretched far beyond what their underlying fundamentals can support. But they are nothing compared with the distorted valuations being applied to U.S. sovereign debt. The bursting of the bond bubble will be exponential worse than the deflation brought on by the NASDAQ and real estate debacles. It is sad to conclude that the middle class is set up to get slaughtered even worse than they did when the previous two bubbles burst.

The economy is heading for unprecedented volatility between rampant inflation and deflation courtesy of Ben Bernanke’s sponsorship of the $7 trillion increase in new Federal debt since 2008. Investors need to plan now while they still have time before the economic chaos begins.

Michael Pento is president and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies.

© 2013 Michael Pento.

Montana Tax Strikers and Me

When I was a cub reporter covering the U.S. District Court in Billings, Montana, I encountered a cabal of men from Whitefish—a small town near Glacier Park in the northwest corner of the state—who called themselves Tax Strikers.

These strict Constitutionalists, vaguely associated with the home-grown militias that were popular at that time, had mailed an open letter to the federal judge—a rangy, stern, red-haired former Republican Congressman—in which they declared the illegality of the income tax and their intention not to pay it.   

In Montana at that time, such eccentrics lived under almost every rock and tree. The sprawling, majestic state was an unofficial asylum for non-conformists from the crowded East. With all that open space, their anti-social tendencies easily went unnoticed.

The Unabomber, for example, once lived in a cabin near Lincoln, Montana.

So, when the Tax Strikers issued their manifesto, the effect was as momentous as the fall of a Ponderosa pine in a National Forest with no one around to hear. The federal judge ignored it. He ignored a follow-up letter and a third one as well. 

Out of frustration at their inability to provoke a response, the would-be revolutionaries turned desperate. They threatened to take a mailman hostage. The court reluctantly stirred. One of the assistant U.S. Attorneys wrote up a complaint. A U.S. marshal drove to Whitefish to serve a summons.

While writing a check last week for my 2012 federal income taxes, I couldn’t help remembering those militant Tax Strikers from Whitefish. Unlike them, I am not bitter about the income tax. I’ve made my peace with it. Here’s why.

I’ve accepted the idea that the main purpose of the federal income tax is to control inflation. Federal tax—but not state or local tax—extinguishes money that would otherwise stay in circulation and drive up prices. 

Wait—there’s a method to my madness. Contrary to conventional wisdom, it seems, spending comes before taxes, not the other way around. I’ve learned this from reading American history.

Before, during and after the Revolution, a variety of governmental bodies spent paper currency into existence. Recognizing the inflationary potential for such a policy, they arrangd to pull some of money back out of circulation each year by levying taxes that were payable in that currency.

Here’s one revealing anecdote. In 1766, the late treasurer of colonial Virginia, John Robinson, was found to have taken paper money tax receipts that he was officially required to burn and instead permanently “loaned” the cash to his friends among Virginia’s elite. The ensuing scandal briefly threatened to undermine the legitimacy of the colonists’ protests against England’s hated Stamp Act.[i]

Here’s another, more famous example. To fight the Revolutionary War, the Continental Congress issued a lot of bonds and paper money to pay for supplies and salaries. After the war, the government had to find a tax revenue stream in order to redeem the bonds. It did. It wrested the right to tax imports and exports away from the states. 

Many people were unhappy with that arrangement, even though the new national government assumed the states’ war debts. But Alexander Hamilton, the first U.S. treasurer, had the epiphany that the central government would be helpless if it had to beg for revenue every time it needed money to pay for the things Congress had already voted to pay for.[ii]

What difference does it make if spending precedes taxes, or vice-versa? Either way, when the government spends more, it has to tax more, right? That’s true. But the sequence makes a big difference. If spending comes first, the government has lots of muscle, and the main purposes of federal taxes are to keep inflation down and to reassure bondholders.

If taxes came first, the government would perpetually be at the mercy of anti-tax activists, which was the case before Hamilton came along. (And is the case today, to some extent; witness the Fiscal Cliff and the Debt Ceiling crises.) Call me crazy, but I take comfort in the belief that my taxes help reduce inflation and reinforce the value of the dollar. It makes paying them less painful. 

Here’s another way to look at: If Uncle Sam really needed to squeeze income taxes out of us in order to guarantee an uninterrupted flow of checks to military contractors, Social Security recipients, and featherbedding bureaucrats throughout the land, we would surely find ourselves facing a more aggressive Internal Revenue Service and harsher penalties for tax evasion.

And more aggressive judges. The U.S. District judge in Billings could afford to humor the Whitefish Tax Strikers, at least temporarily, in part because he knew that the country didn’t really need their income taxes. As for the Tax Strikers, they eventually appeared in federal court, looking surprisingly sheepish. I’m not sure what happened to them after that. Maybe they became survivalists.    

© 2013 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.


[i] Einhorn, Robin L. American Taxation, American Slavery: Chicago, 2006.

[ii] Chernow, Ron. Alexander Hamilton: Penguin, 2004. 

Stable Value Funds: Performance to Date – Part II

In Part I of our performance review of stable value investment funds (SVIF), we utilized mean-variance analysis in forming optimal asset allocations for six asset classes, including long-term government bonds, long-term corporate bonds, intermediate-term government/credit notes, large stocks, small stocks, and money markets.

We found that when SVIF were added to the mix, the efficient frontier was significantly improved, and that several asset classes were no longer included in any of the portfolios along the efficient frontier. We also used the Sharpe Ratio and the Sortino Ratio to compare the reward-to-risk ratios of the various asset classes, and found that SVIF scored the highest among all asset classes, and by a substantial margin.

Although widely used, the mean-variance framework and the performance ratios associated with it have serious limitations. Strictly speaking, their use is justified under conditions that are not even closely met in the real world.

Over the past 50 years, volumes have been written in the economic and financial literature on modifications to the mean-variance model, either based on different assumed utility shapes or on more realistic assumptions on return distributions, in an effort to address the deficiencies of the approach while retaining some of its attractive attributes.[1]

Stochastic dominance analysis

A powerful technique was developed in the 1970s to remedy the problems of mean-variance approaches. It is known as Stochastic Dominance (SD), and its validity depends on no particular asset return distribution nor any particular utility function.[2]

Stochastic Dominance comes in various degrees. First-degree stochastic dominance (FSD) imposes only one preference restriction—in­vestors prefer more wealth to less wealth. If an asset class exhibits first-degree dominance over another asset class, it should be preferred by all investors, regardless of whether they are risk seekers, risk neutral, or risk averse, in any degree.

If an asset class exhibits second-degree dominance (SSD) over another asset class, it should be preferred by all who are risk-averse, in any degree. However, investors who are risk seekers or risk neutral may or may not prefer it.

Third-degree dominance (TSD) is for investors who prefer positive skewness of asset returns, and fourth-degree (4SD) takes into account the aversion most investors have for extreme return distributions, where positive and negative outcomes are just as likely.

The table below presents the SD results among the seven asset classes in our study, based solely on historical returns. Only the SVIF historical returns distribution dominates two asset classes in the stochastic dominance sense up to the fourth degree; none of the other asset classes dominates SVIF.

Stochastic Dominance of SVIF


We see that SVIF stochastically dominated money market investments by the first-degree and by any higher degree as well. Con­sequently, any investor who preferred more wealth to less wealth should have avoided investing in money market funds when SV funds were available, irrespective of risk pref­erences.

However, over the longer time period beginning in 1973, SVIF did not dominate money market investments by the first-degree, yet they did dominate by second-degree and higher. This suggests that for investors with any degree of risk aversion, however slight or strong, SVIF should be preferred to money market investments.

Although SVIF failed to dominate intermediate-term government/credit notes by the first degree, they dominated by the second and higher degrees. This result is a direct consequence of the fact that positive intermediate-term bond returns during the period of our study were never large enough, relative to cor­responding SVIF returns, to make at least some risk-averse investors prefer the riskier in­termediate-term bond investment. When our time period of analysis was extended to 1973, the same dominance was maintained.

These results are remarkable. Not surprisingly, there is no stochastic dominance of any one traditional class over another; indeed dominance is rarely encoun­tered among asset classes. Accordingly, it was surprising to find that SVIF dominated two of the major traditional investment classes.

Multi-period optimization analysis

Multi-period investment theory was developed decades ago in response to the drawbacks of single-period models such as the CAPM and others. Contributors to the theory and developers of investment models based on it included such luminaries as Paul Samuelson (MIT), Nils Hakansson and Hayne Leland (Berkeley), Steve Ross (Yale) and Gur Huberman (Columbia), among others.

Here we provide only an intuitive sense of its underpinnings and insights. Multi-period investment theory has been dubbed the Turnpike Theorem, and for a good reason. Consider the fastest way to drive from point A to point B, located a few miles distant. Generally, the most direct way along local roads is the quickest if the distance is short (assuming that a turnpike does not already connect the two points).

However, if point B is a long way from point A, say 20 or more miles, it might be faster to travel out of your way to connect to a turnpike or freeway, exit as close as possible to point B, and travel the rest of the way on local roads. This turnpike alternative generally becomes more and more attractive as the distance between point A and point B increases, and is almost certainly the preferred path to follow (if speed of arrival is of primary importance) when the distance exceeds a hundred or so miles.

Similarly, in multi-period investment theory, if one’s investment decisions are guided by a single-period optimization model such as the CAPM, among many others, the resulting wealth accumulation in the long run is very likely to be significantly lower than if one were to follow a dynamic investment model.

Dynamic models based on the theory are designed to maximize the investor’s expected utility of wealth where risk is measured by the degree of utility diminishment incurred from investing in risky assets. The economists referenced above uncovered a particular class of power utility functions that is consistent with maximizing long-term wealth for any level of risk aversion. Portfolios based upon such utility functions are known as turnpike portfolios.

One of the nicest features of such long-term investment models is that they are consistent with myopic behavior. In other words, if you invest this period according to the model, your behavior will be consistent with investing in a way that maximizes long-term wealth. However, if you follow investment models based on maximizing alternative utility of wealth functions or otherwise, you will do worse.

In this review we won’t rehearse the considerable safeguards we underwent in designing and implementing the dynamic model to assess asset performance.[3] Instead, we will simply present some representative results from which asset performance can be evaluated.

We derive the optimal asset allocations for each quarter based on the quarterly returns joint distribution across all asset classes considered from the prior 80 quarters. This length of time is sufficient to incorporate two or more business cycles, providing robust estimates. We use the full joint empirical return distri­bution of alternative investments in order to determine optimal wealth allocations that depend on the risk aversion parameter of the investor.

All moments of the joint distribution (e.g., mean, variance, skewness, kurtosis, etc.) are taken into account. The expected returns for the next quarter are derived from market data, but in the case of equities, the risk premium is an input reflecting the investor’s expectations. From this joint distribution, we apply the turnpike utility function to derive those asset allocations consistent with long-run maximization of utility of wealth.

Two fairly typical sets of outcomes are presented below. Each optimal asset allocation will depend on the investor’s level of risk aversion, ranging from 1 to 75 (logarithmic, or only slightly averse, to extremely risk intolerant), and across a variety of assumed annual equity risk premia on large stocks ranging from 2.5% to 5.5%.

Consistent with past research, we consider a risk index of 5 to be fairly moderate, although recent research suggests that the average risk aversion in the population is considerably higher, ranging from 20 to 45.

The figure below, for the first quarter of 2010, reveals that, with the exception of a very small proportion of long-term government bonds for moderate risk aversion levels when the large stocks premium is 5.5% per year, only small stocks and SVIF are relevant in the optimal portfolios, irrespective of the level of risk aversion.

As expected, SVIF represent a larger fraction of the optimal portfolio as risk aversion increases. Also as expected, a larger equity premium in­creases the proportion of small stocks in the optimal portfolio for any given risk aversion level.

Optimal Portfolio Weights

Next we show optimal portfolios for the third quarter of 2008, again using data for the 80 quarters that precede it. The figure below shows the optimal portfolio weights for selected values of the risk parameter, and selected large stocks expected annual risk premiums.

Optimal Portfolio Weights 2

Even though expected returns across all asset classes were significantly different from those used in calculating the 2010 optimal weights, we observe roughly similar optimal allocations, with small stocks and SVIF being the only significant investment classes, except for a small fraction of long-term govern­ment bonds at higher large stocks premiums.

This pattern of optimal portfolios being comprised largely of SV and small stocks is not that uncommon, it turns out, when ex­pected returns are based on historic spreads and current yields. In fact, in our three separate studies, we found these portfolios to be the norm, but with interesting occasional exceptions.[4]

The analyses we have conducted to date conclude that, for moderately and highly risk-averse investors, SVIF are, under reasonable yield curve assumptions, a major component of an optimal portfolio, to the exclusion of money market funds and the near exclusion of intermediate-term bonds.

Since their inception in 1973, SV funds have undergone several severe tests. They survived the market fallout from the OPEC cartels, the severe stock market declines of 1973-4, 2000-2002, the interest rate spikes of the early 80’s, the stock market crash of 1987, the liquidity and credit spread crisis of the late 90s, the plummeting interest rates of the 21st century, economic booms and deep recessions, the terrorist challenges to financial markets in 2001, and countless other daunting circumstances. With very few exceptions, they appear to have weathered the recent financial crisis of 2007-8. 

Concluding remarks

In Part I and Part II of our brief review, we found that despite the different focus of the three performance evaluation methodologies used, the results we obtained under each analysis reinforced each other in the sense that SVIF outperformed some of the alternative investments we considered across one or more dimensions.

Whether SFIV will be appropriate for your clients will depend on their levels of risk aversion, liquidity needs, and other elements of their asset portfolios. If a determination is made that SVIF could be a valuable element of their portfolio, an assessment of providers will need to be made.

David F. Babbel, professor emeritus, The Wharton School, Univ. of Pennsylvania, is a Senior Advisor to CRA (Charles River Associates) and leader of its Insurance Economics practice. Miguel A. Herce, Ph.D., is a Principal at Charles River Associates.

© 2013 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

[1] Either of two strong assumptions can be used to justify reliance on the mean-variance approaches, and the CAPM in particular, to portfolio composition. If investor preferences (utility) can be accurately mapped by a quadratic function (which has a shape similar to the cross section of a dome, indicating that more wealth is preferred to less, but at a diminishing rate as wealth increases, and beyond some point of wealth attainment, less wealth is preferred to more wealth at an increasing rate of repugnance for wealth), or if asset returns can be adequately characterized by a Normal distribution, then the basic mean-variance models including CAPM are supported.

[2] The economic foundations and mathematical support for the stochastic dominance criteria and implementation are given by Haim Levy, Stochastic Dominance: Investment Decision Making under Uncertainty, 2nd Edition, Springer, 2010.


[3] Our previous studies were published in the Working Papers Series of the Wharton Financial Institutions Center website (Babbel and Herce, 2007-#21, 2009-#25, 2011-#1). http://fic.wharton.upenn.edu/fic/papers.html The 2011 study features our most advanced implementation of the dynamic investment model.


[4] A thorough review is in Babbel and Herce, 2011, at: http://fic.wharton.upenn.edu/fic/papers/11/p1101.htm

 

Morningstar publishes 2012 Global Fund Flows report

“Despite ongoing worldwide economic uncertainty, the global fund management industry grew at a 3.9% organic growth rate in 2012. Excluding money market funds, USD 565 billion flowed into mutual funds during the year,” said Morningstar’s latest Global Fund Flows Report, which measures mutual fund assets in Australia, Canada, Europe, Japan and the U.S.

“These massive inflows, though, fell short of 2009 and 2010, which saw inflows of USD 746 billion and USD 672 billion, respectively,” the report said. “Moreover, the average management fee that the industry gathers from investors has fallen dramatically since 2007 due to the cyclical shift to fixed-income products and a secular inclination toward less expensive funds.”

“The prevailing global trend in 2012 was investors’ hunger for yield and quest for the perceived safety of fixed-income funds. Worldwide, fixed-income funds gathered USD 535 billion in 2012, or nearly 95% of long-term net inflows,” said Syl Flood, product manager, investment research for Morningstar.

The report also showed:

  • U.S. fixed income is by far the largest long-term global category, with nearly USD 2 trillion in assets under management (AUM). U.S. investors contributed USD 199 billion of the category’s USD 227 billion total inflow in 2012. The PIMCO Total Return fund is the world’s largest actively managed strategy, with USD 442 billion in assets (including assets managed for institutional clients). 
  • In 2012, interest from cross-border investors propelled funds in the U.S. fixed-income category to a 47% organic growth rate. Many of the most popular offerings are tended by U.S.-based managers, including AllianceBernstein, Muzinich, Neuberger Berman and PIMCO.
  • While 78% of worldwide mutual fund and exchange-traded fund (ETF) AUM still resides in actively managed funds, passive products captured 41% of estimated net flows—USD 355 billion—in 2012. With the exception of Australia and New Zealand, index funds grew faster than actively managed funds in every geographic region during the year.
  • Newer funds—those without a three-year track record—captured 87% of worldwide inflows in 2012.
  • Vanguard and PIMCO took in 16% and 18%, respectively, of worldwide long-term mutual fund inflows in 2012.

The report examines each key market in detail, analyzing flows by attributes such as broad asset class, Morningstar category, and fund group, as well as new fund launches and the active versus passive dynamic in each market. The commentary encompasses the 71 domiciles in which Morningstar tracks fund flows, accounting for USD 20.7 trillion in assets, and touches on the USD 1.9 trillion ETF universe tracked by Morningstar, when applicable.

 

Western & Southern introduces ‘SmartStep’ fixed annuity

W&S Financial Group Distributors, Inc., the wholesale distributor of annuities and life insurance for Western & Southern Financial Group’s member insurance companies, has introduced a new single premium deferred annuity, SmartStep.  

The product is aimed at the many Americans who are “sitting on the sidelines” with their money invested in short-term paper, waiting for rates to rise, W&S said in a release.

SmartStep offers four years of guaranteed rates: an initial rate set by the company at the time of issue, followed by three years of stepped-up rates. At the end of the guaranteed period, the contract will be credited with an annual renewal rate set by the company.

Contracts without a return of premium guarantee receive the initial rate in year one, the initial rate plus 40 basis points in year two, the initial rate plus 80 basis points in year three, and the initial rate plus 120 basis points in year four.

Contracts with a return of premium guarantee receive the initial rate in year one, the initial rate plus 15 basis points in year two, the initial rate plus 30 basis points in year three, and the initial rate plus 45 basis points in year four. A floor interest rate of 0.50% (1% in New York) is guaranteed for the life of the contract

The SmartStep SPFA also features:

  • An optional return-of-premium guarantee on surrender. (The cost of the guarantee is lower interest rate step-ups in contract years two through four.)
  • Optional annuitization for single or joint annuitants. 
  • A guaranteed death benefit.
  • Provisions for limited access to free withdrawals.    
  • A 7% surrender penalty for years one through three, 6% for year four, 5% for year five, 4% for year six and zero percent after. 
  • A minimum premium of $20,000.
  • Contract availability for issue ages 18 through 89.

Western-Southern Life Assurance Company, Cincinnati, and National Integrity Life Insurance Company, Goshen, New York, both offer SmartStep. Both are units of Western & Southern, which is rated AA+ (Very Strong) by Standard & Poor’s.   

© 2013 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Financial tremors shake Poland’s retirement pillars

Poland is struggling to maintain two shaky retirement “pillars” for its citizens: a first pillar similar to our Social Security system and a newer, voluntary pillar whose assets are invested in professionally-managed funds.

To help reduce a general budget deficit, the government has already had to divert contributions away from the second pillar, a defined contribution plan whose Polish acronym is OFE, to the Pay-As-You-Go first pillar, whose Polish acronym is ZUS.

The nation’s Labour and Social Policy Ministry is currently consulting the finance, economy and treasury ministries, the Social Security Institution (ZUS), the National Bank of Poland, the Polish Financial Supervision Authority  (KNF) and the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE). Executives at Aviva and ING are also weighing in.

Since the financial crisis, the establishment of a viable second pillar has been hindered by fact that the ZUS fell into deficit. In 2011, the mandatory contribution to the OFE was cut to 2.3% from 7.3%, with the remaining 5% was sent to the ZUS. The OFE contribution rate has since risen to 2.8% in 2013 and is set to increase to 3.5% by 2017. Their accumulations in OFE funds are expected to provide 20-25% of a final pension for Poles.

The transfer helped reduce the government’s overall budget deficit, which the European Union has ordered it to reduce. But the diversion of money away from the OFE has negative implications for bank deposits, equity prices and ultimately Poland’s economy.

Pawel Pytel, chief executive of Aviva Pension Fund Management Company, said the OFE money should remain invested on the capital markets, and not get swallowed by the ZUS, whose deficit is projected to nearly double by 2020. 

“Future taxes and employee contributions will have to rise to secure the first pillar’s liabilities,” Pytel told IPE.com. “We can generate better returns than the current ZUS indexation, and, from a client’s view, it’s safer if there are two sources of financing future pensions.”

A further shift of funds to the ZUS from the OFE would require the OFE’s fund management companies to sell off assets, potentially lowering securities prices. In any case, there will be less money flowing into the OFE, since participants approaching retirement are expected to make progressively smaller contributions.

“There will be huge implications for the capital markets and Poland’s GDP,” said Grzegorz Chłopek, president of the board and chief executive at ING PTE, if money is drained from the OFE investment funds.

He predicted reduced bank liquidity, less co-financing of infrastructure projects, a smaller market for IPOs and SPOs on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, and problems for the bond market. “After several years, we will see a deep recession due to lack of stable long-term capital enabled for borrowers,” he said.

© 2013 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

DC fee disclosure has little impact: LIMRA

Half of defined contribution (DC) participants still do not know how much they pay in plan annual fees and expenses, a proportion that appears unchanged by the implementation of fee disclosure regulations in 2012, according to LIMRA, the Life Insurance Marketing Research Association.

LIMRA surveyed DC plan participants before and after plan participants received information about their plans’ fees and expenses to determine how effective the disclosure statements were and how participants would react.

Prior to receiving disclosure notices, 50% of participants said they did not know how much they paid in fees and expenses; the same portion did not know subsequent to receiving the notices.

“The disclosure notices — or the discussion of them — did seem to improve the knowledge of those who believed they didn’t pay any fees or expenses,” said Alison Salka, corporate vice president and director of LIMRA Retirement Research.

“There are nearly 75 million workers who participate in defined contribution plans in the United States. Our study found that 22% of participants believed they didn’t pay fees and expenses after receiving disclosure notices, compared with the 38% in our first survey, prior to disclosures going out.”

The study found that many participants overestimated the amount of fees and expenses they pay in their DC plans.   Forty-two percent of participants believe they pay 10% or more — with over a quarter of participants believing they paid 25% or more in fees and expenses.

On average, DC plan fees and expenses range between 1-2 percent, depending on the size of the plan and the participants’ allocation choices. LIMRA’s study found that less than one in three participants who thought they knew how much they paid estimated their fees and expenses to be under two percent.

The survey found that 7 in 10 participants who said they knew they paid fees and expenses believed those fees and expenses to be reasonable, similar to what LIMRA found in its survey prior to the disclosure notices being sent

“There was much speculation on how consumers would respond to the disclosure notices, yet our consumer surveys and discussions with plan service providers indicate that there has been limited reaction to learning about their fees and expenses,” noted Salka.  

Fidelity the target of new lawsuits over float income in 401(k) plans

A putative Class Action Complaint was filed in the United States District Court for the District of Massachusetts last week, accusing Fidelity Management and Trust Company and others of fiduciary breaches over its handling of float income, according to press reports.

The suit was filed by participants in 401(k) plans from Bank of America, EMC Corp. and Safety Insurance Co., and it contains similar allegations to another suit, filed in the Boston federal court February 5, by current or former participants of plans from Hewlett-Packard Co., Delta Air Lines Inc. and Avanade Inc., a subsidiary of Accenture.

The February 5 suit was filed for Timothy Kelley (an ex-participant in the Avanade and Hewlett-Packard 401(k) plans) and Jamie Fine (a participant in the Delta 401(k) plan), but class action status is being sought on behalf of all Fidelity 401(k) participants, not just participants in the Avanade, Delta and HP plans.

According to the February 5 complaint:

Fidelity caused certain of the Plans’ assets to be deposited on an interim basis in interest-bearing accounts before it invested or disbursed monies as directed by the Plans’ participants. Income earned on or derived from the Plans’ assets while invested in such accounts is “float income.” The float income was an asset of the Plans under ERISA. Fidelity exercised discretion and control over the investment of the Plans’ assets in such accounts and over the collection and allocation of float income. Accordingly, Fidelity was a fiduciary for the Plans with respect to the float income. As a fiduciary, Fidelity was prohibited from dealing with the float income for itself or for the benefit of another and was required to deal with that float income with prudence and unflagging loyalty. Fidelity did not. Instead, it engaged in prohibited transactions and breached its fiduciary duty in two distinct ways.

First, Fidelity used float income to pay itself trust and record-keeping fees above and beyond the fees authorized in the trust agreements between the Plans and Fidelity. Thus, Fidelity engaged in repeated self-dealing transactions and breaches of duty in violation of § 406 and § 404 of ERISA whenever it paid itself float income.

Second, Fidelity remitted float income into the mutual fund options selected by the Plans’ participants without crediting the amount of that float income to the contributions made by Plans or the Plans’ participants. This had the effect of disseminating the value of the float income generated by the Plans’ assets to all of the investors in the mutual fund, and substantially diluting the value of the float income received by the Plans and the Plans’ participants. Thus, Fidelity engaged in repeated transactions for the benefit of others and breaches of duty in violation of § 406 and § 404 of ERISA whenever it invested float income into its mutual funds.

Both float-income suits refer to a March 2012 opinion of a judge in U.S. District Court in Kansas City, Mo., in a lawsuit by plan participants against ABB Inc., Cary, N.C., and Fidelity. The judge ruled that Fidelity had “breached its fiduciary duties” in the use of float income, and ordered Fidelity to pay the plan $1.7 million. Fidelity is appealing the decision.

“Our practices are in compliance with ERISA and DOL guidelines,” Jennifer Engle, a Fidelity spokeswoman, told Pensions & Investments magazine. “We believe that the practices described in the lawsuit are consistent with the law and fair to all parties and that we provide valuable services to 401(k) clients for whom Fidelity serves as a record keeper and trustee.”

© 2013 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

When the Empire Didn’t Strike Back

Benn Steil’s excellent new study The Battle of Bretton Woods (Princeton, 2013) focuses on the 1944 global monetary conference as a struggle between its two principal protagonists, the U.S. Treasury’s Harry Dexter White, and Britain’s celebrity economist, Maynard Lord Keynes.

Even Steil, an American who has considerable sympathy with Keynes, is quite clear that he lost, playing a bad hand poorly. To this British-born columnist with less sympathy for Keynes’ bizarre economic beliefs, his Bretton Woods performance was not merely a defeat, it was a historic disaster.  

Battle of Bretton Woods book coverBritain went into the Bretton Woods negotiations with an unfounded belief in the goodwill of Franklin Roosevelt’s administration. Churchill had, a few years earlier, described the U.S. Lend-Lease arrangements as “the most unsordid act in the whole of recorded history.”

In reality the Lend-Lease arrangements of 1940-41 were designed to leave Britain as close to insolvency as possible while she wore out her economy and people in a life-and-death struggle that had little relevance to particular British interests.

Keynes himself had been notably uninvolved in the British economic successes of the 1930s, but had been brought back into influence only at the outbreak of war, when Chamberlain’s pacific free-market approach to Britain’s needs seemed discredited. 

He was philosophically opposed to the centerpiece of British 1930s policy, the Imperial Preference agreements of 1932, which had finally ended the unilateral trade disarmament of 1846-1932 and imposed a modest 10% tariff on imports to the Empire and Dominions to combat the tariffs of 50% and more imposed by Britain’s trading partners, notably the United States under the 1930 Smoot-Hawley tariff.

Keynes was also philosophically opposed to private-sector bankers, refusing to negotiate a possible post-war loan with Wall Street, which would have greatly increased his bargaining power at Bretton Woods. He apparently failed to perceive that Britain’s interests coincided in many respects with Wall Street’s, since both groups wanted to avoid a post-war financial system dominated by the public sector bureaucrats of Washington.

Finally, Keynes was opposed to the pre-World War I Gold Standard, and also to a floating exchange rate system, typically wanting a system in which exchange rates would be determined by a superior group of public sector mandarins. He also favored a new currency, “bancor,” which the mandarins could create through the IMF, which would prevent a repeat of the deflation of the 1930s.

On the American side, White (who we now know was an active Soviet agent) and his boss Treasury Secretary Henry Morgenthau were convinced that much of the U.S. misery in the 1930s had been due to British and French “competitive devaluation,” so they were determined to establish a system of fixed exchange rates.

White (who was unpleasant and intellectually misguided, but not corrupt) also believed that the Soviet economic system was the wave of the future, to which we were all converging – perhaps not as lunatic a belief in the middle of World War II as it seems today – and so was determined to help that convergence along as far as he could.

He therefore wanted Imperial Preference dismantled, a fixed gold/dollar exchange rate system that gave the U.S. dollar primacy as the only reserve currency, and a World Bank/IMF that could lend money but not create it. He opposed Keynes’ “bancor,” since that would weaken the position of the dollar and effectively act as a hidden subsidy from the U.S. (the only fully solvent economy) to everyone else.

A negotiator with Britain’s true economic interests at heart would not have allowed chimerical new schemes of international finance to dominate the conference, but would have focused on Britain’s three crucial interests:

  • The preservation of Imperial Preference
  • The largest possible post-war loan  
  • Permission for an immediate sterling devaluation similar to the 30% fall which became inevitable in 1949

Imperial Preference had proved its value in the 1930s, in allowing a modest reciprocal arrangement against the still gigantic American tariffs, so that British manufacturers had a chance in Empire, Dominion and later Commonwealth markets of competing against U.S. products that had built huge efficiencies of scale behind their high tariff wall.

Britain would have had its own free-trade area that was well designed to balance its raw-material-poor manufacturing and service economy. Joining the European Economic Community would have been superfluous and indeed obviously economically counterproductive.

When Keynes came to focus on Britain’s postwar loan, in 1945, he concentrated fanatically on the interest rate, demanding an interest-free loan instead of the 50 years at 2% that was on offer. In consequence he obtained a loan of only $3.5 billion instead of the $5 billion Britain needed—with conditionality of restoring full convertibility of sterling in July 1947, an impossibly early date.

A better negotiator would have opened negotiations with Wall Street, securing a $5 billion commitment, which appeared to be available, and then negotiated with the U.S. Treasury only for a top-up, sufficient to carry Britain through to 1950 or so, when private markets would be functioning properly again.

Finally, since both sides were determined to abandon a true gold standard (because of its automaticity and deflationary nature), Keynes should have pressed for floating exchange rates (which Britain almost introduced in 1952 by the “Robot” scheme, but alas wimped out of). At a minimum a good negotiator would have insisted on a 1949-style devaluation immediately.   

As for the World Bank and IMF, a good negotiator would have avoided setting up these useless bodies altogether. Without (until 1968 with Special Drawing Rights) the ability to create Keynes’ bancor, they did nothing useful to solve Britain’s dollar shortage problem in the post-war years.

Moreover, once they got going they provided and have continued to provide subsidized competition to London merchant banks, which in the pre-1914 Gold Standard world had made a very good business out of providing advice and arranging loans for the world’s emerging markets.

With sterling freely convertible at a floating exchange rate after, say, 1950 there was no reason why the merchant banks could not have resumed this business, driving out their domestically-oriented and undercapitalized U.S. cousins who had gained a position in the business in the 1920s.

The merchant banks would have had a much larger fee income, and would thereby have been saved from the depredations of the 1986 “Big Bang” while emerging markets would have received advice that helped rather than hindered their development—and far fewer opportunities for the local elites to siphon off loan monies.

The drawbacks of Keynes’ approach were recognized by clear thinkers at the time. Leo Amery, Secretary of State for India, wrote in a Cabinet memo: “We must be free to take whatever measures we think necessary to the safeguard of our own production, to develop Imperial Preference, to use our bargaining power with foreign countries, and to strengthen that wonderful monetary instrument the sterling system. We must enter into no international commitments which in any way limit that freedom.”

White and Morgenthau became notorious in 1944-45 by their “Morgenthau Plan” which would have stripped Germany of industry, thereby leaving Soviet tanks a clear run to the Channel ports. They didn’t get to implement that one—but by the Bretton Woods Agreement, with the aid of the vain and foolish Keynes, they did just about as much damage to the British economy, damage that lasted until exchange controls were lifted in the early days of Margaret Thatcher.

Martin Hutchinson is the author of “Great Conservatives” (Academica Press, 2005). This article appeared unabridged at prudentbear.com.

Where the Wealth Is

Despite the fines they’ve paid, their high fees and their resistance to a fiduciary standard, the so-called wirehouses—Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, UBS, etc.—still control the lion’s share of professionally managed wealth in the U.S.

While employing only about 16.3% of all advisers and brokers, the wirehouses direct the investment of about 41.1% of the $27.3 trillion that’s “addressable” by advisors in the U.S. according to the latest report from Boston-based Cerulli Associates.

Asset managers—including mutual fund manufacturers—must therefore include wirehouses in their distribution strategies, even though, as Cerulli notes, they “have raised the cost of doing business through higher platform placement fees and more expensive revenue sharing agreements.”

That situation is changing, but only at the margins, said the proprietary report, titled, “The State of U.S. Retail and Institutional Asset Management 2012.” Wirehouse assets shrank by 0.3% from 2011 to 2012, as many advisors fled or got laid off in the wake of the financial crisis, taking some of their clients along.  

Components of U.S. Asset Market

(Investment vehicles with the most assets, with highest dollar amount at the top)

Institutional separate accounts

Open-end mutual funds

Money markets

Hedge funds

Collective trust funds

ETFs

Subadvisory: Mutual funds

Fixed annuities

Variable insurance trusts

Subadvisory: Retail separate accounts

Closed-end mutual funds

Open program retail separate accounts

Non-traded REITs

Model retail separate accounts

ETNs

Source: Cerulli Quantitative Update: The State of U.S. Retail and Institutional Asset Management 2012.

Where are they going? The advisor-distribution channels that grew the most in 2012 were the RIA (Registered Investment Advisor) channel (assets up 14.7%) and the overlapping “dually registered” channel (up 19.1%), whose advisors are both FINRA-registered brokers and SEC-registered investment advisors. But those two channels combined handle only about 20.1% of total AUM and 14.9% of advisors, according to Cerulli, and they’re highly fragmented.   

State the financial union

The main point of the Cerulli report is to show the size and strength of the various advisor-led distribution channels. “The report is meant to be a ‘state of the union’ of domestic markets,” its author, Cerulli associate director Tyler Cloherty told RIJ this week.

“Asset managers are asking, ‘What are our distribution options? How large are they? Are they growing or shrinking?’ We’ve seen that the RIA and the dually-registered advisor channel are growing faster than any other part of the market,” he said. “So asset managers might want to tailor their products to the needs of those two segments of the distribution marketplace,” he added.

But the proprietary report—RIJ saw only excerpts—offers a detailed snapshot of the institutions and the products where most of America’s investments are held. (Cerulli estimates that U.S. invested assets may be worth as much as $36 trillion, with only about three-quarters of that “addressable” by asset managers and advisors.)

According to the Flow of Funds Accounts of the U.S., March 7, 2013, personal financial assets in the U.S. at the end of 2012 was $50.13 trillion, and “household net worth—the difference between the value of households’ assets and liabilities—was about $66.0 trillion at the end of the fourth quarter of 2012, $1.1 trillion more than at the end of the third quarter.”  

That wealth isn’t evenly distributed. According to “An Analysis of the Distribution of Wealth Across Households,” a July 17, 2012 report by the Congressional Research Service, 34% is in the hands of the richest one percent of Americans and the richest 10% hold almost three-quarters of it.

“The share of wealth held by the top 10% of wealth owners grew from 67.2% in 1989 to 74.5% in 2010. Declines occurred in the remaining 90% of households. The share of total net worth owned by households in the 50th to 90th percentile of the wealth distribution fell from 29.9% in 1989 to 24.3% in 2010, and the share of households in the bottom half fell from 3.0% to 1.1%,” the report said.

The Cerulli report also looked at how U.S. financial wealth is divided among different investment products. Institutional separate accounts and open-end mutual funds are the by far two biggest categories, with about $13.8 trillion between them. Both saw minor asset shrinkage in 2012 after three years of double-digit growth. 

The two fastest-growing categories in 2012 were “model retail separate accounts” and “open program separate accounts, but both started from a very low base compared with open-end mutual funds and institutional separate accounts.

One of the main takeaways from the Cerulli report: Asset managers need to fine-tune their sales approach if they want to shift some of their resources from the wirehouse advisors to the RIAs and dually-registered advisors.

“These advisors operate their own independent practices,” Cloherty told RIJ. “They don’t have as much institutional support as an advisor at a wirehouse like UBS or Merrill Lynch. To get that kind of technology or research support they have to buy it themselves. Consequently, they may need more support from their asset manager partners in terms of macroeconomic research or marketing support.”

A change in pitch

The shift from wirehouse to RIAs and dually-registered advisors also involves a shift from the suitability standard to the fiduciary standard, and that has an impact on how asset managers and their wholesalers make their pitches.

“The asset managers are all moving toward the consultant approach, where they frame the macroeconomic environment and show try to show their customers where their product fits into their strategic outlook. It’s distinct from the commission-based formula where you say, ‘Here’s the product, buy our product,’” Cloherty said.

“In the fee-based arena, the salesperson or wholesaler needs more quantitative ability. He or she needs to move away from the mindset of, ‘I need to create sale activity.’ Now that intermediary is an advisor and a fiduciary.”

Despite their bad publicity and high fees, the wirehouses still have a grip on investors because of their strong brands and long-term relationships with clients, Cloherty pointed out. The wirehouses also benefit from the fact that most clients don’t understand how advisors get paid or what ethical standards they observe.

“Clients tend to separate their relationships with their advisors from their opinions about the firm. A client might say, ‘I’ve read about XYZ wirehouse acting in ethically dubious ways. But I know my advisor down at the local office would never do anything that wasn’t in my interest,’” he told RIJ.

“People don’t understand the difference between a fiduciary or a suitability standard. Clients have no idea how their advisors are compensated. They don’t understand how the firm’s proprietary products might harm them, and they don’t understand the pressure on wirehouse advisors to push the products that the wirehouse underwrites.

The link between underwriting and the suitability standard is strong. “That’s why you see so much lobbying against the fiduciary standard. It would blow up the way [the wirehouses] do business,” Cloherty said.

“The wirehouses still have brand recognition, but they are under pressure. Some of the clients are drifting away because they see the firms’ names in the paper every day. A bigger factor is that advisors are leaving the wirehouses because they don’t like forcing products down people’s throats.”

But the confusion about ethical standards apparently doesn’t end there, Cloherty added. “As advisors leave the wirehouses and move to the independent channel, they tell their client, I’m a fiduciary now. The client says, ‘I thought you were always a fiduciary.’”

© 2013 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

More chatter about ‘defined ambition’ plans in the UK

The UK’s pension minister, who has proposed a “defined ambition” approach to retirement funding that would spread longevity and investment risk among plan providers and plan participants, says the private sector might need public help in underwriting the guarantees that such plans would entail.

Speaking at a joint OECD/Pension Institute conference on defined contribution, Steve Webb said that a government-backed DC protection fund could be the best way to allow for cheap guarantees due to the “challenges” posed by the solvency requirements for private sector approaches.

“If we are going to have financial guarantees, they have got to be backed,” Webb told a joint OECD/Pensions Institute conference on DC, guarantees and risk sharing yesterday. “Backing through solvency is very, very expensive.”

He said individual banks had discussed with his department how best to achieve guarantees and that the Department for Work & Pensions (DWP) had been examining both the possibility of private and quasi-government solutions – the latter of which, he said, were potentially more able to provide security “cheaply.”

Speaking at the same event, the chairman of the National Employment Savings Trust (NEST) Lawrence Churchill praised the proposed DC Pension Protection Fund (PPF), which Webb has described as a “smoothing fund” for participant outcomes.

He appeared to view greater risk sharing as a possible route, telling attendees: “We do need a better solution than merely transferring all of that risk onto those who don’t understand it.”

But Tim Jones, chief executive of NEST, noted that NEST had considered introducing a level of guarantee, but decided against it. He appeared to favor higher contributions by members rather than guarantees. He said it was important for “people to put more money in and to put that extra money to harder work.”

© 2013 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Cerulli surveys global DC trends

Global defined contribution (DC) assets should reach US$13.7 trillion by 2016, according to the latest report from Cerulli Associates. By then, Australia will be the third-largest market after the United States and the United Kingdom.

In other Cerulli findings:

The United Kingdom is the only market with assets in excess of US$1 trillion that is expected to have double-digit growth. Asia ex-Japan shows immense potential with Korea and Taiwan registering the strongest growth rates across the region. China, Hong Kong, and Thailand are expected to grow more than 10%. 

Europe has the greatest immediate potential for growth. The region is forecast to have more than US$6.8 billion in assets under management in 2013. The United Kingdom and the Netherlands have the greatest potential, but Poland also offers huge opportunities. Managers can tap growth in disparate markets, but local knowledge, language skills, and after-sales service are needed to access the addressable assets. While it is possible to identify common themes, much also depends on a country’s regulatory environment and investment heritage. 

“Performance is considered an important attribute by most European trustees and consultants, but low fees act as a trump card in competitive tenders in Italy,” says Barbara Wall, director at Cerulli Associates. “In Germany it is steadiness of returns and a coherent investment strategy that win. In the Netherlands and the Nordic region expertise in proven alpha niches is a competitive advantage, whereas in France it is an association with an insurance company that holds sway.” 

In other findings: 

  • In the United States, United Kingdom, and Latin America, consultants are the most important gatekeepers. In contrast, their role is less significant in Asia and continental Europe, where banks and insurance companies are the primary gatekeepers. Auto-enrollment in the United Kingdom opens the door to platforms, which will be particularly appealing to employers keen to outsource complex and time-consuming processes.  
  • In the United States, as income from defined benefit schemes dwindles, consultants’ interests in DC plans clashes with retirement specialist advisors. Advisors are moving up-market from small plans and have developed fee-for-service models. Cerulli research indicates that there are more than 3,000 specialist advisors in the United States, of which about 600 teams demonstrate consultant-like characteristics. Opportunities for consultants in Brazil, meanwhile, are likely to mushroom as rules on international investing are liberalized.   
  • Pressure on fees is one trend that is close to being universal. Most of the investors polled in the Nordic region, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands told Cerulli the crisis has prompted them to negotiate fees more vigorously. These same interviewees also said they were prepared to share extra returns with managers who could deliver stable performance. Continuity in returns was the common requirement and a key to new business. 

© 2013 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

US at rear of peloton in retirement security: Natixis

The United States ranks 19th worldwide in the retirement security of its citizens, according to a new annual index compiled by Natixis Global Asset Management (NGAM), the world’s 13th largest investment management firm.

The Natixis Global Retirement Index gauges how well retired citizens live in 150 nations, based on measures of health, material wellbeing, finances and other factors. The study was released today by the NGAM Durable Portfolio Research Center, which conducts research on risk management, asset allocation and other investment issues.

Though the U.S. is the world’s biggest pension market, it lags behind less-affluent nations on measures of income and health, according to the index. While the U.S. leads the world in per-capita health spending, individuals are still responsible for a portion of this expense.

Western European nations with universal health care and retiree social programs dominate the top of the rankings, taking the first 10 spots. Norway is first overall, followed by Switzerland, Luxembourg, Sweden and Austria. Australia is the highest-ranked non-European country, followed by Israel and Canada. The U.S. finished ahead of the United Kingdom, but trailed the Czech Republic and Slovakia.

Demographic challenges
Like many other nations, the U.S. is grappling with significant demographic change, including a rapidly aging population, rising life expectancy rates and declining birth rates. Globally, the number of people aged 65 or older is on track to triple by 2050, when the ratio of the working-age population to those over 65 in the U.S. is expected to drop from 5-to-1 to 2.8-to-1.

According to a recent Senate report, the U.S. faces a retirement savings deficit of $6.6 trillion, or nearly $57,000 per household. As a result, 53% of American workers 30 and older may be unprepared for retirement, up significantly from 38% in 2011.

Only half of all workers have access to employer-sponsored plans, and those who do participate often make the common mistakes of saving too little or investing too much in lower-returning products.

The Natixis Global Retirement Index is a composite index that combines 20 indicators grouped into four major categories: health; material well-being; quality of life in retirement; and finances.

CoreData Research, a London-based financial research firm, captured data from a variety of sources, calculated a mean score in each category and combined the category scores for a final overall ranking of 150 nations.

The categories, and the subjects they comprise, are:

  • Health: Per-capita health spending, life expectancy, the availability of physicians and hospital beds per 1,000 citizens, and the level of noninsured health spending. (Sources: World Bank’s Development Indicators, 2012; World Health Organization)
  • Material well-being: Per-capita income, income inequality and unemployment. (Source: World Bank)
  • Finances: Old-age dependency (the ratio of retirees to workers), inflation, interest rates, taxation level and bank nonperforming loans. (Sources: World Bank, United Nations)
  • Quality of life: The level of happiness and satisfaction of citizens, as well as the quality of the climate and environment. (Sources: Gallup World Poll 2012; Environmental Performance Index 2012)

 

© 2013 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

New FIA from ING U.S. offers living benefit and deferral bonuses

ING U.S. has launched the ING Lifetime Income single premium deferred fixed annuity, issued by ING USA Annuity and Life Insurance Company (ING USA).

ING U.S. currently offers an in-plan guaranteed income investment option for 401(k) participants as well as a series of retirement income planning and education resources for ING Financial Partners’ financial advisors. 

 “ING USA’s new deferred fixed product rewards those who have the ability to postpone their income withdrawals, by stepping up their future available income withdrawal amount. If their needs shift, the individual can access a portion of the funds along the way although this will result in reduced future income withdrawal amounts,” said Chad Tope, president of ING U.S. Annuity and Asset Sales.

The ING Lifetime Income annuity offers two deferral bonus opportunities. If income payments are deferred for five years, the available income withdrawal amount is boosted by 150%. With a ten-year deferral, the available income withdrawal amount gets a guaranteed boost of 225%.

Another potential growth feature is linked to changes in the S&P 500® Index.  If the S&P 500 Index is higher at the end of a contract year than at the beginning, the available income amount increases by this percentage subject to an annual cap on the amount of this increase. The index cap is currently 6% and is fixed for the life of the contract. ING may declare a different index cap in the future for new contracts.

While there is upside potential, the income amount will not be decreased as a result of a decline in the S&P 500 over the course of the year.  The step up benefit and index-linked growth increase the benefit value, which is used to determine the income withdrawal amount only and do not increase the contract’s account value.

The income amount has the potential to grow until lifetime income withdrawals start, at which point the amount is locked in and the income withdrawals will continue for an individual’s lifetime, or the lives of two spouses if there are joint owners.  An optional death benefit grows in a similar way, providing protection for beneficiaries and helping with legacy planning.

© 2013 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Forethought Launches ‘ForeRetirement’ VA

The life insurance unit of Houston-based Forethought Financial has launched the ForeRetirement variable annuity with “daily benefit options.” The contract, which marks the company’s first entry into the VA market since acquiring The Hartford’s annuity business, is available in B, C and L shares.

ForeRetirement will be distributed in partnership with national, regional and independent broker/dealers, as well as banks. It has been approved in 49 states and the District of Columbia, covering all jurisdictions where Forethought Life Insurance Company issues variable annuity business.

The contract’s “Daily Lock Income Benefit” guarantees lifetime withdrawals for retirees as a percentage of the benefit base, which can grow through favorable investment performance. The benefit captures new contract value highs on a daily basis, known as “step-ups,” to age 90, with a minimum deferral bonus of 6% simple interest credited until the 10th contract anniversary or the first withdrawal if sooner.   

Contract owners who elect the income benefit can also elect the “Legacy Lock” death benefit option. It allows contract owners to provide beneficiaries with death benefit proceeds at least equal to the amount of premium invested. The death benefit will not reduce for withdrawals, unlike traditional annuity death benefits, as long as the benefit’s requirements and guidelines are met.

© 2013 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.