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Looking through Morgan Stanley’s crystal ball

Morgan Stanley Smith Barney’s Global Investment Committee’s has released its monthly overview of markets, economics and asset allocation. According to the report:

On markets

  • Our cautious tactical asset allocation remains in place, given the still inadequate policy response to both the European recession and slower US growth.
  • We are overweight cash, short-duration bonds, investment grade bonds and managed futures.
  • We are underweight developed-country sovereign debt, high yield bonds, equities, commodities, global real estate investment trusts and inflation-linked securities. We are market weight emerging market bonds.
  • Regarding global equities, we continue to overweight both the emerging market and the US while underweighting other developed markets. Within US equities, our capitalization preference is large caps and our style tilt is growth.

On economies

  • Europe is in recession and growth is slowing in the US and in most emerging market economies. Still, we expect global growth to remain positive this year and next.
  • The policy options to promote growth in developed market economies are variously limited, politically unlikely or too little, too late. Moreover, fiscal policy is tightening in Europe and is likely to tighten in the US as the fiscal cliff approaches. We expect the cliff to be addressed after the election.
  • By contrast, fundamentals and policy options in emerging market economies are generally more robust. Globally, we expect inflation to abate.

On profits

  • Expectations for 52-week forward earnings per share are mixed. The S&P 500 forward earnings figure is now above $112, up from a low of $107 last autumn.
  • However, 52-week forward EPS for global equities has dropped to about $28, down from more than $30 last summer.

On interest rates

  • Developed market central-bank policy rates are likely to remain low at least into 2014. The Federal Reserve has extended Operation Twist, given continued tepid US growth; a third round of Quantitative Ease is likely. The European Central Bank (ECB) policy rate is now below 1%. Moreover, the ECB now indirectly supports the EU sovereign debt markets and major European banks. Meanwhile, emerging market central banks have begun easing to offset slower growth.

On currencies

  • In the short term, we expect US-dollar strength versus the euro. Longer term, major developed market currencies will likely decline against several emerging market currencies.

© 2012 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

For RIAs, life is good: Schwab survey

Independent registered investment advisors (RIA) reported record assets under management (AUM) and revenues in 2011 as client acquisition offset flat market performance, according to the 2012 RIA Benchmarking Study from Charles Schwab.

The median RIA firm increased revenues by 12% and AUM by 3.8%, marking a second consecutive year of record highs for the industry. Median net client growth was 4.7%, flat from 2011 but up from 3.5% in 2009. The number of new clients overall grew 8.2%, with 20% of firms seeing the number of new clients up by 14.7%. RIAs saw client attrition of only 3% in 2011.

Schwab’s annual RIA Benchmarking Study represents the views of over 1,000 firms. Participating firms manage more than $425 billion, with 105 firms managing $1 billion or more. The median participating firm has 186 clients, $212 million in AUM and $1.3 million in annual revenue.

© 2012 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Vanguard to offer short-term TIPS index fund

Vanguard has filed a registration statement with the SEC for Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities Index Fund. Expected to be available in the fourth quarter of 2012, the fund will offer four low-cost share classes (Investor, Admiral, Institutional, and ETF Shares).

The new fund will track the Barclays U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) 0-5 Year Index, a market-weighted index that measures the performance of inflation-protected public obligations of the U.S. Treasury that have a remaining maturity of less than five years.

The benchmark index has an effective duration of 2.53 years and an average maturity of 2.59 years (as of June 30, 2012). Barclays, a premier index provider in the fixed income market, is the index provider for all of Vanguard’s fixed income index funds.

The new fund’s ETF Shares have an estimated expense ratio of 0.10%. The fund’s Investor Shares, which require a $3,000 minimum initial investment, have an estimated expense ratio of 0.20%; the Admiral Shares, which require a $10,000 minimum initial investment, have an estimated expense ratio of 0.10%; and the Institutional Shares, which require a $5 million minimum initial investment, have an estimated expense ratio of 0.07%. To offset the transaction costs of purchasing TIPS, the fund will assess a 0.25% purchase fee on all shares (excluding ETF shares).

The short-term fund will complement the existing $43 billion Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund, an actively managed fund with a duration of 8.5 years and an average maturity of 9.3 years (as of June 30, 2012).

“The new Short-Term Inflation Protected Securities Index Fund will provide an additional choice for investors who are seeking protection from inflation,” said Vanguard Chief Investment Officer Gus Sauter. “The fund’s objective will be to generate returns more closely correlated with realized inflation and to offer investors the potential for less volatility of returns relative to a longer-duration TIPS fund.”

Joshua Barrickman and Gemma Wright-Casparius, both principals and senior portfolio managers in the Vanguard Fixed Income Group, will co-manage the new fund. Barrickman currently manages several Vanguard bond index funds and oversees daily management of Vanguard Fixed Income ETFs. Wright-Casparius co-manages the existing Vanguard TIPS fund. The Vanguard Fixed Income Group oversees nearly $700 billion in assets, including $235 billion in bond index fund assets and $37 billion in bond ETF assets.

© 2012 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

New advisor legislation endorsed by Financial Planning Coalition

New federal legislation that would authorize the Securities & Exchange Commission to collect user fees to fund increased examinations of registered investment advisers was endorsed this week by Financial Planning Coalition (FPC), an advocacy group formed by the CFP Board, the Financial Planning Association, and NAPFA.

The Investment Adviser Examination and Improvement Act of 2012 bill was introduced by Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA) and co-sponsored by Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA), and Representative Michael Capuano (D-MA).

The FPC called the bill “a credible alternative” to the Investment Adviser Oversight Act of 2012 (H.R. 4624), introduced in April, which mandated that small advisory firms join a self-regulatory organization (SRO), in addition to current SEC and state regulatory oversight.

While acknowledging the need for more frequent investment adviser oversight, an FPC release said, “Creating a new SRO is not the right solution. The burden of excessive regulation and cost would fall unfairly on small business owners while many larger firms would be exempt and would go unaffected.”

A survey of investment advisers conducted by The Boston Consulting Group showed that 81% of investment advisers would prefer to pay user fees to the SEC than to pay membership fees to a FINRA investment adviser SRO, the FPC release said. 

© 2012 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

 

The View from the Variable Annuity Trenches

 The variable annuity industry, like the rest of the economy and the government, is in a state of suspense in the summer of 2012.

On the one hand, low interest rates are forcing yesterday’s sales leaders to trim withdrawal rates, raise prices and moderate sales. On the other hand, ongoing Boomer demand for guaranteed income is creating new sales opportunities for smaller VA issuers, who didn’t gorge on risk during the boom years.

Roughly speaking, VA issuers are a little like homeowners in the wake of the financial crisis: some carry a lot of risk and can do nothing but wait for the market to turn around; others still have a lot of equity and can enjoy the blessing of low-rate refinancing.

But what does the VA market look like to the people who wrestle with it every day? To find out, RIJ talked to three veterans in the field: Eric Henderson of Nationwide Financial, Dan Kruse of Securian Financial, and Bruce Ferris of Prudential Annuities. Here’s what they had to say.

Eric Henderson, senior vice president, individual products and solutions, Nationwide Financial Services.

Nationwide, one of the largest variable annuity issuers in recent years, has reduced the maximum roll-up on its Destination Navigator 2.0 variable annuity to 7% from 10%. It is partnering with Morgan Stanley Smith Barney to introduce a contingent deferred annuity to fee-based clients.

“The CDA works almost identically to the VA with the GLWB, in terms of what you’re guaranteeing. It’s just a different legal structure. With the VA, the insurance company chooses the fund, but in the CDA, we cover [outside assets] with guarantee. [The insurers] have to price it differently, partly because we see no income from the investments. As a result, you’ll see guarantees on the CDAs being less rich [than VA guarantees].

“Also, the variable annuity is commission-based, so over the long haul the insurer will see more income than from a fee-based product. That’s one reason you don’t see ‘rollups’ in the CDA: you don’t have that extra margin. In the CDA world, you don’t want to over a certain fee level. A few years ago, they didn’t want you to go over 100 basis points [for the unbundled living benefit]. Now there’s leeway to charge a little more for the benefits, but there’s still pressure to keep fees from getting too high in that world.

“If you want to deal with a [large wirehouse like] Morgan Stanley, hooking up all the plumbing is expensive. The fee-based advisors will be on the platform, and all of their reporting will be there. So if I add a CDA, the advisors have to have the same level of reporting capability. Typically, all the calculations take place on the platform and the platform provider feeds the data back to the insurer. The provider will want to do the calculations, but the information still has to come back to us because we’re buying and selling positions in order to hedge appropriately. The cost of offering the [CDA] benefit is primarily around hedging and a little around administration.

“If you’re dealing with a large wirehouse, it’s probably a one-to-one transaction between the insurer and the wirehouse. If you’re dealing with a smaller firm, it’s their platform that gets involved. Sure, a fee-based advisor can still buy a fee-based variable annuity, but it’s a relatively short step for us to say, we can insure funds you already have, versus saying the [fee-based] advisor must take his assets and move them to a variable annuity with a completely different set of funds. When [a CDA writer] deals with a Morgan Stanley Smith Barney, or any other large wirehouse, we go with the funds that they have. We might wrap a subset of what’s on the platform.  If the wirehouse has 1,000 funds, there might be only 200 we can wrap. Platforms typically already have asset allocation models that we can wrap. That’s the key to the CDA. You work with the funds and the models that are already there.

“At the moment, everything is on hold. There’s the regulatory stuff. And, interest rates being where they are, it’s just not a good time to offer new products. We launched our CDA in the middle of the financial crisis. We won’t know until we get into a more normal interest rate environment.”

Niche player with a ‘catchy’ new product: Dan Kruse, second vice president and actuary, Securian Financial.

Securian Life and Minnesota Life are small, diversified mutual insurers that recently launched the Ovation II lifetime withdrawal benefit, which includes a 6% roll-up and a 200% accumulation if no withdrawals are taken in the first 10 contract years.

“You didn’t see us out in front in trying to build AUM or in pushing the envelope [on product design] over the past three to five years. So that puts us in a somewhat different spot than some of the other players who are taking significant action [in the variable annuity space right now].

 “Our Ovation II rider is a catchy step up from the original Ovation that we launched last September. As interest rates dropped we knew there would be changes, but we’re not sitting on the type of legacy book of business that forces other players to [retreat on benefits]. We didn’t try to lead in the past, so we’re not sitting on in-force benefits that are in the money. You see some filings where some companies are trying to buy out those benefits. We don’t have that. [The current environment] allows us to pick our spots. We’ve delivered on what we promised all along. We provide a rational product. It’s not that we’re becoming more aggressive today, it’s that the rest of the industry has fallen back.

“We’re more upbeat that you would have found us a few years ago. The marketplace is priced more rationally today. We pushed down our market share even in key distribution channels for a couple of years, but we knew we wanted to compete a little harder with Ovation. We put the cost of the original Ovation joint rider at 165 basis points with a 5% payout at age 65. When interest rates dropped, the biggest change in Ovation II was the curtailed joint benefit. We dropped the withdrawal percentages by 50 basis points and dropped the price to 120 basis points.

“In general, the big move this year [in variable annuity benefits] has been the withdrawal rates. With the GLWB, the withdrawal rate is the biggest lever you can pull. [Regarding investment restrictions,] there were a bunch of companies going for the directed allocation solution, to create a [automatic asset transfer] formula like Prudential’s. But we’re more interested in volatility-controlled funds. I’ve added the TOPS funds. These funds start to control volatility before they get to our balance sheet, so that there’s no in-house black box. We will add more options like these and we will start to direct money into them.

“We don’t want to rush out and try to become a top ten provider of individual annuities. According to the LIMRA data, we hang in at about 33rd or 34th in sales. If we could be the 30th largest seller, that would satisfy us and our distribution partners. I’d like to find more partners, but I don’t want to be on shelf with 25 other carriers. I’m looking for distributors that appreciate our pursuit of security for the long run, who understand that we’ll be here for the full cycle. We believe that this business can be good for the distributor, the manufacturer and the consumer. We don’t believe in the ‘feature fest.’ We don’t believe in the shiny lure approach.”

The glass-half-full perspective from an industry leader: Bruce Ferris, head of sales and distribution, Prudential Annuities.

After dominating the variable annuity world with its Highest Daily contracts, and weathering the financial crisis with the help of its automatic asset-transfer mechanism, Prudential has gradually cut back its benefits and now speaks often about CDAs, a market it has not formally entered yet.

 “[Regarding contingent deferred annuities,] It’s good that people [in the variable annuity business] are looking at and focusing their efforts on unprotected asset classes, whether they are mutual funds, managed money, fee-based businesses, SMAs, or wrapped mutual funds. Obviously, that’s a pool of trillions of dollars. We believe CDAs are very important, and they represent one example of the creative ways that Prudential can innovate in the guaranteed retirement income space.

 “I’m frustrated that our industry sees its glass as ‘half empty.’ I think it’s half full. Demand has never been greater. Capacity has been constrained, but to me that spells opportunity. Everyone has pointed to 2007 and said that was the high water mark in gross sales. The reality is that net sales in 2011 were back at highest level, up 28% year over year. Total industry assets were $1.6 trillion. Our assets under management were at their highest ever. My premise is that assets are stickier than ever, because the investor owns something of value.

“We get no credit as an industry for surviving a 100-year event, or for continuing to weather a 30-year bull bond market. Everyone points to the headwind of interest rates. Yet, despite the headwinds and volatility, insurance companies have met every responsibility. The overall financial health of the industry has never been better.

“Constraint number one is the interest rate environment. Companies are deploying capital where it’s best for shareholders. That results in some level dislocation in terms of consistency of providers. We talk about equity volatility, but we also have manufacturing volatility. Some companies are viewing this environment as an opportunity. Companies like Sammons, Symetra and Forethought. These are examples of new entrants, new creativity, and new products. There’s also a back-to-the-future element with a re-emphasis of tax deferral plays. There’s evidence of using alternative asset classes that are not correlated [with the performance of conventional asset classes] for diversification. We [at Prudential] view the [CPPI-like] asset risk transfer mechanism, in one form or another, as being a critical component [in future product design].

“Where the industry may deserve some criticism is when it allows itself to be viewed as a zero-sum game. Can the product be good for the investor and good for the shareholder over time? We believe the answer is yes. Sales aren’t good unless they’re profitable. [Annuity issuers] are quick to compare ourselves with each other and within our own companies, and we allow the advisors to say that our products aren’t as good as they used to be. But, ‘not as good’ compared to what? And, as much as we view the interest rate as a near-term headwind on the manufacturer side, it’s nothing compared to the tailwind we’re getting on the consumer side from the Boomer retirement wave.”

© 2012 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

The View from the Variable Annuity Trenches

 The variable annuity industry, like the rest of the economy and the government, is in a state of suspense in the summer of 2012.

On the one hand, low interest rates are forcing yesterday’s sales leaders to trim withdrawal rates, raise prices and moderate sales. On the other hand, ongoing Boomer demand for guaranteed income is creating new sales opportunities for smaller VA issuers, who didn’t gorge on risk during the boom years.

Roughly speaking, VA issuers are a little like homeowners in the wake of the financial crisis: some carry a lot of risk and can do nothing but wait for the market to turn around; others still have a lot of equity and can enjoy the blessing of low-rate refinancing.

But what does the VA market look like to the people who wrestle with it every day? To find out, RIJ talked to three veterans in the field: Eric Henderson of Nationwide Financial, Dan Kruse of Securian Financial, and Bruce Ferris of Prudential Annuities. Here’s what they had to say.

Eric Henderson, senior vice president, individual products and solutions, Nationwide Financial Services.

Nationwide, one of the largest variable annuity issuers in recent years, has reduced the maximum roll-up on its Destination Navigator 2.0 variable annuity to 7% from 10%. It is partnering with Morgan Stanley Smith Barney to introduce a contingent deferred annuity to fee-based clients. Eric Henderson

“The CDA works almost identically to the VA with the GLWB, in terms of what you’re guaranteeing. It’s just a different legal structure. With the VA, the insurance company chooses the fund, but in the CDA, we cover [outside assets] with guarantee. [The insurers] have to price it differently, partly because we see no income from the investments. As a result, you’ll see guarantees on the CDAs being less rich [than VA guarantees].

“Also, the variable annuity is commission-based, so over the long haul the insurer will see more income than from a fee-based product. That’s one reason you don’t see ‘rollups’ in the CDA: you don’t have that extra margin. In the CDA world, you don’t want to over a certain fee level. A few years ago, they didn’t want you to go over 100 basis points [for the unbundled living benefit]. Now there’s leeway to charge a little more for the benefits, but there’s still pressure to keep fees from getting too high in that world.

“If you want to deal with a [large wirehouse like] Morgan Stanley, hooking up all the plumbing is expensive. The fee-based advisors will be on the platform, and all of their reporting will be there. So if I add a CDA, the advisors have to have the same level of reporting capability. Typically, all the calculations take place on the platform and the platform provider feeds the data back to the insurer. The provider will want to do the calculations, but the information still has to come back to us because we’re buying and selling positions in order to hedge appropriately. The cost of offering the [CDA] benefit is primarily around hedging and a little around administration.

“If you’re dealing with a large wirehouse, it’s probably a one-to-one transaction between the insurer and the wirehouse. If you’re dealing with a smaller firm, it’s their platform that gets involved. Sure, a fee-based advisor can still buy a fee-based variable annuity, but it’s a relatively short step for us to say, we can insure funds you already have, versus saying the [fee-based] advisor must take his assets and move them to a variable annuity with a completely different set of funds. When [a CDA writer] deals with a Morgan Stanley Smith Barney, or any other large wirehouse, we go with the funds that they have. We might wrap a subset of what’s on the platform.  If the wirehouse has 1,000 funds, there might be only 200 we can wrap. Platforms typically already have asset allocation models that we can wrap. That’s the key to the CDA. You work with the funds and the models that are already there.

“At the moment, everything is on hold. There’s the regulatory stuff. And, interest rates being where they are, it’s just not a good time to offer new products. We launched our CDA in the middle of the financial crisis. We won’t know until we get into a more normal interest rate environment.”

Niche player with a ‘catchy’ new product: Dan Kruse, second vice president and actuary, Securian Financial.

Securian Life and Minnesota Life are small, diversified mutual insurers that recently launched the Ovation II lifetime withdrawal benefit, which includes a 6% roll-up and a 200% accumulation if no withdrawals are taken in the first 10 contract years. Dan Kruse

“You didn’t see us out in front in trying to build AUM or in pushing the envelope [on product design] over the past three to five years. So that puts us in a somewhat different spot than some of the other players who are taking significant action [in the variable annuity space right now].

 “Our Ovation II rider is a catchy step up from the original Ovation that we launched last September. As interest rates dropped we knew there would be changes, but we’re not sitting on the type of legacy book of business that forces other players to [retreat on benefits]. We didn’t try to lead in the past, so we’re not sitting on in-force benefits that are in the money. You see some filings where some companies are trying to buy out those benefits. We don’t have that. [The current environment] allows us to pick our spots. We’ve delivered on what we promised all along. We provide a rational product. It’s not that we’re becoming more aggressive today, it’s that the rest of the industry has fallen back.

“We’re more upbeat that you would have found us a few years ago. The marketplace is priced more rationally today. We pushed down our market share even in key distribution channels for a couple of years, but we knew we wanted to compete a little harder with Ovation. We put the cost of the original Ovation joint rider at 165 basis points with a 5% payout at age 65. When interest rates dropped, the biggest change in Ovation II was the curtailed joint benefit. We dropped the withdrawal percentages by 50 basis points and dropped the price to 120 basis points.

“In general, the big move this year [in variable annuity benefits] has been the withdrawal rates. With the GLWB, the withdrawal rate is the biggest lever you can pull. [Regarding investment restrictions,] there were a bunch of companies going for the directed allocation solution, to create a [automatic asset transfer] formula like Prudential’s. But we’re more interested in volatility-controlled funds. I’ve added the TOPS funds. These funds start to control volatility before they get to our balance sheet, so that there’s no in-house black box. We will add more options like these and we will start to direct money into them.

“We don’t want to rush out and try to become a top ten provider of individual annuities. According to the LIMRA data, we hang in at about 33rd or 34th in sales. If we could be the 30th largest seller, that would satisfy us and our distribution partners. I’d like to find more partners, but I don’t want to be on shelf with 25 other carriers. I’m looking for distributors that appreciate our pursuit of security for the long run, who understand that we’ll be here for the full cycle. We believe that this business can be good for the distributor, the manufacturer and the consumer. We don’t believe in the ‘feature fest.’ We don’t believe in the shiny lure approach.”

The glass-half-full perspective from an industry leader: Bruce Ferris, head of sales and distribution, Prudential Annuities.

After dominating the variable annuity world with its Highest Daily contracts, and weathering the financial crisis with the help of its automatic asset-transfer mechanism, Prudential has gradually cut back its benefits and now speaks often about CDAs, a market it has not formally entered yet. Bruce Ferris

 “[Regarding contingent deferred annuities,] It’s good that people [in the variable annuity business] are looking at and focusing their efforts on unprotected asset classes, whether they are mutual funds, managed money, fee-based businesses, SMAs, or wrapped mutual funds. Obviously, that’s a pool of trillions of dollars. We believe CDAs are very important, and they represent one example of the creative ways that Prudential can innovate in the guaranteed retirement income space.

 “I’m frustrated that our industry sees its glass as ‘half empty.’ I think it’s half full. Demand has never been greater. Capacity has been constrained, but to me that spells opportunity. Everyone has pointed to 2007 and said that was the high water mark in gross sales. The reality is that net sales in 2011 were back at highest level, up 28% year over year. Total industry assets were $1.6 trillion. Our assets under management were at their highest ever. My premise is that assets are stickier than ever, because the investor owns something of value.

“We get no credit as an industry for surviving a 100-year event, or for continuing to weather a 30-year bull bond market. Everyone points to the headwind of interest rates. Yet, despite the headwinds and volatility, insurance companies have met every responsibility. The overall financial health of the industry has never been better.

“Constraint number one is the interest rate environment. Companies are deploying capital where it’s best for shareholders. That results in some level dislocation in terms of consistency of providers. We talk about equity volatility, but we also have manufacturing volatility. Some companies are viewing this environment as an opportunity. Companies like Sammons, Symetra and Forethought. These are examples of new entrants, new creativity, and new products. There’s also a back-to-the-future element with a re-emphasis of tax deferral plays. There’s evidence of using alternative asset classes that are not correlated [with the performance of conventional asset classes] for diversification. We [at Prudential] view the [CPPI-like] asset risk transfer mechanism, in one form or another, as being a critical component [in future product design].

“Where the industry may deserve some criticism is when it allows itself to be viewed as a zero-sum game. Can the product be good for the investor and good for the shareholder over time? We believe the answer is yes. Sales aren’t good unless they’re profitable. [Annuity issuers] are quick to compare ourselves with each other and within our own companies, and we allow the advisors to say that our products aren’t as good as they used to be. But, ‘not as good’ compared to what? And, as much as we view the interest rate as a near-term headwind on the manufacturer side, it’s nothing compared to the tailwind we’re getting on the consumer side from the Boomer retirement wave.”

© 2012 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

She’s Not a Captive Academic

The shortcomings of our 401(k) system bother Teresa Ghilarducci. She won’t stop sounding an alarm about them. And for that, a few years ago, a fat cigar-smoker with a vast radio audience called her “the most dangerous woman in America.”

There’s one thing you can’t call her, however. And that’s a “captive academic.”

Ghilarducci, an author and economist at the New School of Social Research in Manhattan, denounced the defined contribution system in the U.S. in an opinion piece in The Week in Review section of The New York Times last Sunday.

“Basing a system on people’s voluntary saving for 40 years and evaluating the relevant information for sound investment choices is like asking the family pet to dance on two legs,” she wrote. “This do-it-yourself pension system has failed. It has failed because it expects individuals without investment expertise to reap the same results as professional investors and money managers.”

As a solution, she proposes replacing the 401(k) system with a kind of mandatory national cash balance retirement plan—a hybrid of DB and DC. She calls it “a way out that would create guaranteed retirement accounts on top of Social Security. These accounts would be required, professionally managed, come with a guaranteed rate of return and pay out annuities.”

Personally, I don’t agree with everything that Ghilarducci wrote. She claims that someone who earns $100,000 at retirement needs $2 million beyond Social Security in savings to maintain living standards in retirement; a retiree with “an income-producing spouse and a paid-off house” will need less.

This is a straw man. I have never heard anyone claim such a high multiple. A recent Aon Hewitt report estimated that each person will need 11x final salary plus Social Security. The old ING “number” commercials showed suburbanites carrying a number north of $1 million with them on a rectangle of white poster board. (I recently told Brett Hammond (formerly of TIAA-CREF, now of MSCI) that my wife and I would each have about twice final salary in savings at retirement; he smiled and said that we were somewhat short of TIAA-CREF’s benchmark rule-of-thumb.)

But I don’t disagree with Ghilarducci’s basic facts. And, if you work in the retirement plan field, you probably don’t either. Every day, I read reports—from within the industry itself—showing that most Americans don’t earn much, don’t understand money or investing, can’t discipline themselves to save, and arrive at retirement (voluntarily or otherwise) with barely enough cash to zero-out their credit card balances. We all know this.

The industry clearly doesn’t agree with her solutions, however. For Ghilarducci, the 401(k) system, like the inert caged bird in the classic Monty Python pet shop sketch, is a dead parrot. Replacement is the only cure. For people who work in the 401(k) system, or for whom it works well, the parrot is merely resting. The system is basically healthy and can be made to serve the average worker better through new defaults, disclosures and education. Ghilarducci’s 401(k) glass is more than half empty. The industry’s is more than half full.

The purpose of this column, though, isn’t to rehash the pros and cons of the 401(k) system. We can save that for another day. My point is that Ghilarducci is just doing her job as an academic. In the tradition of the school that employs her, she’s a muckraker and a critic and rabble-rouser. She’s a thorn in the side of the entrenched status quo. To her credit, she’s not a captive academic.  

You’ve heard of “captive regulators”—regulators who lose their adversarial spirit and, like hostages suffering from Stockholm syndrome, adopt their captors’ beliefs. We have lots of those, occupying some of the highest watchdog posts in the land. Similarly, the 401(k) system has lots of captive academics whose research happens to support the goals and interests of the 401(k) industry itself, and who are lionized for it and I assume, at least indirectly, highly compensated for it. Professor Ghilarducci, bless her angry heart, isn’t one of them. 

© 2012 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

The Bucket

Benartzi to advise Achaean

Shlomo Benartzi, a co-chair of the Behavioral Decision-Making Group at the UCLA Anderson School of Management, has agreed to serve as an academic advisor to Achaean Financial, developer of retirement advice software and designer of guaranteed income product, Achaean has announced.

“Benartzi will help Achaean better incorporate ideas from behavioral finance into its existing Retirement Outcome software and into the innovative new tools currently in development by the firm,” the company said in a release.

Benartzi co-founded the Behavioral Finance Forum, a collective of 40 prominent academics and 40 major financial institutions from around the globe. He developed Save More Tomorrow (SMarT), a behavioral prescription designed to increase employee savings rates gradually over time.

Achaean’s Retirement Outcome was cited by the Investment Management Institute as one of the top three models for providing retirement guidance, and is the only open-architecture retirement modeling platform available in the current marketplace. While product-set agnostic, Retirement Outcome is complemented by Achaean’s patent-pending and cost-effective immediate variable annuity product design, Income Plus+.  

Income Plus+ was the subject of a March 28, 2012 article and Achaean was the subject of a May 18, 2010 article in Retirement Income Journal.

 

MassMutual Retirement Services to partner with Rhode Island School of Design

MassMutual’s Retirement Services Division has asked graphic design students at the Rhode Island School of Design (RISD) to help it motivate people in their 20s to save for retirement.

As part of the school’s Corporate Sponsored Studio: Designing Today For Tomorrow program and following a visit to MassMutual headquarters in Springfield, Mass., the students are tasked with creating eye-catching graphics and communication materials to help their generation better understand the importance of planning and saving for retirement – and the benefits of starting early.

“These young thinkers aren’t hampered by old 20th‐century ways of thinking, and will come up with new and innovative ways to reach 20-somethings beyond what MassMutual alone can imagine,” said Kris Gates, assistant vice president of participant and interactive marketing with MassMutual’s Retirement Services Division, in a release.   

 

NAPFA and Kiplinger’s to host free financial advice sessions

NAPFA, the National Association of Personal Financial Advisors, and Kiplinger’s Personal Finance magazine are partnering to provide the public with access to free financial advice each month with the “Jump-Start Your Retirement Online Chats.”

The chats will be held from 1 p.m. to 3 p.m., Eastern time, on the following dates: 

  • Thursday, August 16
  • Thursday, September 20
  • Thursday, October 18

To participate, investors should dial 1-888-919-2345 on these dates and a NAPFA member will respond to questions. You may also submit questions at www.kiplinger.com/yourretirement/jumpstart/.

 

John Hancock Funds launches program for retirement plan advisers  

John Hancock Funds has launched a new program designed to help retirement plan advisers demonstrate their value and build stronger client relationships.  Available  at www.jhfunds.com, the program, “Focus on Value:  What Matters Most to Your Clients – and How to Build on It,” includes a guidebook, wholesaler PowerPoint, and Plan Sponsor Toolkit.

In addition, John Hancock participated as a co-sponsor for a survey and study of plan sponsors released in the spring and called: “Can a Professional Retirement Plan Adviser Really Make That Much of a Difference?” The survey findings provide first-person insight into ways that plan sponsors believe retirement plan advisers may bring the greatest value to their plans and participants.

The guidebook includes five key findings from the research study, in which plan sponsors described what retirement plan advisers bring to their plans:

  • Superior retirement outcomes for participants
  • Superior fiduciary expertise and improved compliance
  • Improved plan design
  • Advanced investment plan
  • More reasonable fees and overall plan costs.

The guidebook also offers corresponding practice management tips for advisers. The wholesaler PowerPoint, which mirrors the guidebook, is formatted for iPad delivery. The Plan Sponsor Toolkit shows how to evaluate a new or existing financial adviser for a company’s retirement plan.

Global roundup from IPE.com: China, UK, Netherlands

A dozen global managers contract to manage Chinese national pension money

China’s National Council for Social Security Fund (NSSF) has announced a new round of mandates, which included 12 foreign investment managers, and is testing a performance-linked fee structure that industry participants argue will encourage pensions fund managers to search for alpha.

By end-2011, the NSSF managed assets RMB868bn ($136bn), 58% of which are self-invested and 42% of which are managed by external managers. However, NSSF has struggled with returns, last month announcing its 2011 performance was the worst since 2008. Despite this, management fees ballooned 25% to RMB1.02bn.

Under the plan, managers who return more than 8% can negotiate a performance fee, while those who return less than 8% will get a flat 3% management fee.

NSSF awarded 21 mandates. Among the foreign names who got multi-asset mandates (*) or single-asset mandates (**) were:

  • JPMorgan Chase & Co.*
  • Lombard Odier*
  • Neuberger Berman*
  • Schroders*
  • Standish Investment Management** (emerging market)
  • Stone Harbor Investment Partners** (debt products)
  • AGF Management Ltd.** (natural resources)
  • Investec Ltd.** (natural resources)
  • JP Morgan** (natural resources)
  • RBC Global Asset Management** (natural resources)
  • AEW Capital Management LP** (real estate)
  • AMP Capital and European Investors Inc.** (real estate)

 

UK. pension funds should consider ‘mortality buffer’: UBS

A new report from UBS Global Asset Management calls on UK pension trustees to focus on liability risk management instead of asset risk and advises them to introduce a mortality buffer able to offset “unknown adverse future events.”

“This margin, or buffer, would then be used to cover adverse changes in longevity,” said the UBS 40th annual Pension Fund Indicator report, adding that “prudent assumptions” should be employed by trustees when setting out their deficit funding objectives to secure higher deficit payments from sponsors.

In its 40th annual Pension Fund Indicator report, UBS also called for the debate surrounding the suitability of equity investments by pension funds to focus more on the appropriate pricing levels for equities.

The report added that trustees could also “aim for an additional investment return target, above the existing benchmark, with the funds earmarked specifically for any increase in longevity risk.”

The “middle ground” approach – between mortality buffer and full risk transfer to an insurance company through buyout – would be to ask an insurer to guarantee their pricing for a number of years, with the plan’s investment strategy adapted to return the premium needed, the report said.

“The advantage of this approach is that it eliminates the risk of future changes in the pricing basis by the insurer and gives the scheme assets time to generate additional return (‘the buffer’) that can be used to pay for the higher buyout price.” UBS argued that such an approach would also reduce the changes of further contributions from the scheme sponsors.

On the topic of equities in pension funds, UBS suggested that the debate into the fair valuation of equities should become important once more, saying that “strangely little” of the recent discussion surrounding the use of equities had focused on the subject.

“Looking forward, the determination of the appropriate amount of equities for a scheme should now be influenced by a number of factors including relative valuations scheme design, asset-liability comparisons, the employer’s own balance sheet and willingness to fund shortfalls, academic research on equity characteristics and diversification, and appetites for risk and reporting issues,” the report said.


Dutch retirement age increase to reduce pensioners by half million

By deciding to raise the official retirement age from 65 to 67 in 2023, the Dutch government is projected to reduce the number of pension recipients by half a million by 2025 and reduce the anticipated increase in their numbers by half, according to Statistics Netherlands (CBS).

Meanwhile, the Dutch senate has embraced a bill providing for the gradual increase of the age of the state pension (AOW), starting next year, to 67 in 2023, and linking further increases to the life expectancy of 65-year-olds.

The increase of the “pensionable” age would occur quicker under the government’s new measure than under the now-abandoned Pensions Agreement that was negotiated in 2011, the CBS said.

That agreement provided for a single-step rise of the pension age to 66 in 2020 and a second single-step increase to 67 in 2025. About 100,000 fewer pensioners are projected to receive benefits in 2025 under the new plan.

It’s a drag: Low rates weigh on life insurer earnings

The strong equity market helped perk up variable annuity results improved in the first quarter of 2012, but choppy market performance in the second quarter made that trend unlikely to last, according to a recent bulletin from Fitch Ratings.

And weak annuity results won’t do much for the insurers’ bottom lines. “Annuity earnings are expected to be a drag on overall earnings over the near term given market volatility and low interest rates,” wrote Fitch analysts in a July 17 Special Report entitled “Earnings Outlook Mixed for U.S. Life Insurers.”

“Operating earnings in the individual annuity segment were generally lower in 2011,” the release report said, “as extreme equity market volatility in the second half more than offset strong results through the first half in the variable annuity line of business. Fixed annuity interest margins benefited primarily from lower crediting rates.”

The report included the following highlights:

Expect Modest Improvement in Industry Operating Returns. Fitch Ratings anticipates modest improvement in industry profitability in 2012 driven by growth related to prior-year international acquisition activity at a few companies, continued reduced crediting rates in most product lines, product redesign and pricing and ongoing expense management. Fitch believes insurers face an uphill battle in materially improving returns and earnings-based interest coverage metrics in 2012 due to macroeconomic headwinds.

Interest Rates Remain a Drag. Interest rates remain at historically low levels. This could continue at least through 2014, based on recent Federal Reserve statements. The low rates are a major drag on earnings, reducing net investment income and interest margins on spread-based products. It also increases hedging costs as well as employee pension liabilities and reserve requirements for a number of products due to reduced expectations for investment returns and future profitability.

Repositioning for the New Normal. Prolonged low interest rates, strategic repositioning, and emerging regulatory capital requirements out of Europe have caused several companies to exit or pull back from the fixed and variable annuity, universal life with no lapse guarantees, and other interest-sensitive lines of business. The ongoing exit from the long-term care business continued in 2011 due to the impact on profitability of low interest rates combined with adverse morbidity experience.

Equity Markets Remain Volatile. Asset-based fee income was positive through the first quarter of 2012 primarily due to higher account values and equity market appreciation. The market gyrated in the second quarter but remained positive for the first half of the year. It was not at all clear where the market was heading in the second half. Increased volatility has raised hedging costs, particularly for variable annuity writers with significant guarantees.

New DAC Rules Add to Pressure. On Jan. 1, 2012, most U.S. life insurers retrospectively adopted new accounting guidance designed to address inconsistencies in the way companies were accounting for deferred acquisition costs (DACs). The adoption reduced previously reported first-quarter 2011 pretax GAAP income by an average of 9%, based on filings of a sample group of large life insurers. It also resulted in an average 8% decline in the previously reported 2011 GAAP equity.

Slow Economy Keeps Pressure on Group Market. A number of companies have seen long- term disability loss ratios increase, and that is expected to continue. Some are now citing economic conditions, including continued high unemployment and slow growth, as a driver of higher loss ratios. No clear patterns have emerged as of yet. A number of companies have responded with significant price increases.

Lower Investment Losses: The bright spot is that realized credit-related investment losses continue at reduced levels. Commercial mortgages are generally performing well, although there is an increase in troubled real estate as a percentage of total adjusted capital (TAC) for the industry as a whole. However, overall risky assets in relation to TAC were flat in 2011. Fitch believes that companies are starting to take a little more risk in 2012 in the search for yield, particularly through allocations to longer term bonds and alternative investments. Mortgage origination is also up.

© 2012 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

De-Risky Business

The summer of 2012 has been one of the busiest for the variable annuity business in recent memory, due to numerous de-risking moves being undertaken by insurers.  In fact some companies have made multiple changes in fairly quick succession.  It seems that every move made by a given player has led to some sort of response on the part of its key competitors.

In this environment, with the stock market still on somewhat shaky ground and interest rates at historic lows, insurers are figuring they should trim back on the richness of their guarantees.  Thus they are making reductions of one form or another, whether by increasing fees, tightening sub-account restrictions, reducing commissions, cutting off additional premium into existing riders, and even eliminating certain VA share class options.

The de-risking trend – filtering down from the “Big Three”

For the most part, product adjustments have been starting from the top, from market leaders like Prudential, MetLife and Jackson National (the top three sellers of VAs, in order, for the first quarter of this year, according to Morningstar). 

Of this trio, MetLife has been the most active, which is in keeping with its senior management’s official stance (as communicated at a number of earnings calls and investor events) that it wants to reduce its VA sales.

Starting late last year, the company has made multiple de-risking tweaks to its income benefit series, GMIB Max, and, truthfully, it has not stopped yet.  Last October, it came out with GMIB Max II, which lowered the annual base rollup rate from 6% to 5.5%.  In January of this year Max III came out, with a rollup of 5%.   

On June 1, MetLife filed GMIB Max IV with the SEC and the benefit included the following changes from version III:

  • If the owner takes withdrawals in the first five years, the ability to do so on a dollar-for-dollar basis will reduce from the 5% rollup to a rate of 4.5%.
  • If the client waits five years before taking income, the dollar-for-dollar rate will go back up to 5%.
  • The annuity factors changed such that the interest rate applying to the benefit during annuitization will drop from 1.0% to 0.50%.

I have not seen a firm launch date for Max IV as of yet, but some contacts suggest that it might come out fairly soon.

Met has made other changes: it ceased sales of its L-share contracts on June 8, and, effective August 17, it will be closing earlier benefits off to new premium.

The most recent change from Prudential was that it stopped selling its bonus VA, Premier Retirement Variable Annuity X Series, on July 2, and we think that rival MetLife’s reduction of its share class lineup (in addition to its ceasing the sale of L shares recently, it had already closed its C shares and bonus contracts in most systems) had something to do with it.

Prudential also has a new living benefit in the pipeline, Highest Daily Lifetime Income 2.0. It will differ from the currently sold version in that it will have reduced withdrawal rates; a higher fee; and different investment guidelines. The portion of contract value that must be allocated to fixed income will rise to 30% from 20%.  I have not yet heard a launch date for this rider.

Jackson National: more opportunity than it wants

The case of Jackson National is an interesting one. The insurer has not made any significant product reduction moves over the recent past, but there is much speculation in the industry that the insurer will do something soon.

If Jackson stays put, it might attract more sales than it has an appetite for, due to the de-risking of other players.  In the first quarter Jackson’s VA deposits were up sharply, the opposite direction that its executive leadership wants. Last year Jackson’s parent, Prudential plc of the U.K., announced plans to scale back its VA sales in the U.S. 

I heard a rumor (from multiple sources) that Jackson was going to execute some sort of product change last Monday [July 16], but the week came and went without any SEC filing or broker-dealer announcement to confirm this.

Jackson’s big move last year was the removal of the 8% base rollup option on its LifeGuard Freedom Flex lifetime withdrawal benefit.  More recently, the company announced that the M&E charge on its Perspective II contracts will increase by 0.05% in September. 

The company filed new withdrawal rate schemes for both Freedom Flex and another rider, LifeGuard Freedom 6 Net, back in January but they have yet to be used. The filing showed two tiers of lifetime withdrawals and it looked like that the higher income amounts would come at an increased rider charge.  The catch was that the withdrawal rates were all in brackets and left blank, to be filled in later via amendment.

Further down in the VA sales rankings there has been an interesting mix of de-risking activity, and I’ll hit on a few of the highlights in the following bullet points:

  • Allianz amended its Vision and Connections contracts with changes to take effect on July 23: 1) the short-surrender charge (L-share) option will no longer be available; 2) the base rollup on the Income Protector GLWB will reduce to 5% from 7%; and 3) the withdrawal rates on Income Focus (another GLWB) will be reduced.
  • SunAmerica lowered the base rollup on the version of the Income Builder GLWB on its O-share contract from 6% to 5.25% effective June 25.
  • An affiliate of SunAmerica, VALIC, announced that effective July 2, its IncomeLOCK benefit was closed to new sales. 
  • Ameriprise will be launching a new version of its Accumulation Protector Benefit (a GMAB) effective July 30; in a risk mitigation move, it will allow the owner to invest in just one sub-account, the Columbia Variable Portfolio – Managed Volatility Fund, as is the case with the company’s SecureSource 3 GLWB which debuted earlier this year.

Forethought – Moving in another direction

A company that is apparently moving against the de-risking tide is Houston-based Forethought, which purchased Hartford’s annuity new business capacity earlier this year. I have heard that new contracts and benefits Hartford had in the pipeline will indeed be sold, and Forethought is the logical company to do that, as Hartford itself discontinued active sales of annuity and life products in April. The word is that this is a temporary arrangement, that eventually Forethought will start writing VA products on its own “paper” eventually.

In any event, pre-effective amendments came through for two Hartford contract registrations recently, Personal Retirement Manager Select IV and Personal Retirement Manager Solution.  They contain the Daily Lock Income Benefit (a GLWB) and tandem death benefit that appeared in the initial registrations from January. As per their names, both have a component that will allow the owner to capture sub-account growth into the benefit base on a daily basis. Currently, the only company that has such a growth aspect is Prudential, through its suite of Highest Daily or “HD” benefits.

In closing

Thus it appears that Forethought may be looking to make an opportunistic move as most other companies are scaling back. That said, I get the feeling that yet more product changes will be coming as there remain plenty of smaller players who have not made any major moves over the recent past. Suffice it to say, it’s turning out to be a very hot summer for the VA space.

Steven D. McDonnell has analyzed and written about the variable annuity marketplace for over 10 years, first as a reporter for Annuity Market News, then as the first editor of Annuity Insight.com, a service of research firm Strategic Insight, LLC.  In 2006 he founded Soleares Research LLC, which publishes a weekly report on VA product issues. His readership includes major insurance companies, asset managers, actuarial firms and analysts.

© 2012 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

One in six mortgages of >50 Americans are underwater: AARP

Older Americans were supposedly more immune to the housing crisis than younger people, thanks largely to their longer history in the housing market. But a new study by the AARP Public Policy Institute shows that millions of older Americans carry more mortgage debt than ever, and more than three million risk the loss of their homes. 

The study, “Nightmare on Main Street: Older Americans and the Mortgage Market Crisis,” measured the progression of the mortgage crisis and its effect on people age 50 and older.

From 2007 to 2011, more than 1.5 million older Americans lost their homes as a result of the mortgage crisis, the study showed. About 3.5 million loans of people age 50 and older are “underwater”—meaning homeowners owe more than their home is worth and have no equity; 600,000 loans of people age 50 and older are in foreclosure; another 625,000 loans are 90 or more days delinquent.

More policy solutions are needed to assist all homeowners, particularly older Americans, the study asserted. “Policy solutions that should be considered include: principal reduction loan modifications; mediation programs; more access to housing counseling and legal assistance programs; and development of short-term financial assistance programs,” wrote author Lori A Trawinski, Ph.D., CFP.

Using nationwide loan-level data for the years 2007 to 2011, the study examined loan performance based on borrower age, loan type, and borrower demographics. It showed that, as of December 2011:

  • Among people age 50 and older, the percentage of loans that are seriously delinquent increased 456% during the five-year period, from 1.1% in 2007 to 6.0% in 2011. As of December 2011, 16% of loans of the 50+ population were underwater.
  • Serious delinquency rates of borrowers age 50–64 and 75+ are higher than those of the 65–74 age group. People in the 75+ age group are facing increasing mortgage and property tax expenditures and decreasing average incomes. Serious delinquency rates of the <50 population are higher than those of the 50+ population.
  • Of mortgage borrowers age 50+, middle-income borrowers have borne the brunt of the foreclosure crisis. Borrowers with incomes ranging from $50,000 to $124,999 accounted for 53% of foreclosures of the 50+ population in 2011. Borrowers with incomes below $50,000 accounted for 32%.
  • The foreclosure rate on prime loans of the 50+ population increased to 2.3% in 2011, 23 times higher than the rate of 0.10% in 2007. The foreclosure rate on subprime loans of the 50+ population increased from 2.3% in 2007 to 12.9% in 2011, a nearly six-fold increase over the five-year period.
  • African American and Hispanic borrowers age 50+ had foreclosure rates of 3.5% and 3.9%, respectively, on prime loans in 2011, double the foreclosure rate of 1.9% for white borrowers in 2011.
  • Since 2008, Hispanics have had the highest foreclosure rate on subprime loans among the 50+ population—14.1% in 2011. African Americans age 50+ had the highest foreclosure rate in 2007. White borrowers age 50+ had the lowest subprime foreclosure rate until 2010, when their rate was slightly higher than that of African Americans and remained higher in 2011.
  • One-quarter of subprime loans of borrowers age 50+ were seriously delinquent as of December 2011.

© 2012 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Cash balance plans, the darlings of small professional firms

There’s been a 21% increase in new plan inception and an 18% increase in assets in cash balance retirement plans, according to the 2012 National Cash Balance Research Report from Kravitz, the designer, administrator and manager of corporate retirement plans. 

 “IRS regulations released in October 2010 added flexibility for plan sponsors, so we expect this growth rate to continue accelerating,” Dan Kravitz, president of Kravitz, said in a release.

There were 7,064 cash balance plans active in 2010 (the most recent year for which IRS reporting data is available), up from 1,337 in 2001, representing 810% growth in less than a decade. There are now 11.1 million participants in cash balance plans nationally, with $713 billion in total plan assets.

Also known as ‘hybrids,’ cash balance plans provide a guaranteed cash balance benefit at retirement rather than a lifetime annuity or lump sum benefit, as defined benefit plans do. Like a 401(k) plan, however, cash balance plans are portable.   

“A cash balance plan can allow for much higher contribution amounts,” according to a fact sheet from Summit Retirement Plan Services. “Annual participant contributions to a 401(k) plan are limited to no more than $49,000 ($54,500 if age 50 or over). Cash balance plans on the other hand have no contribution limitations and are only limited by the cost of a maximum projected benefit at retirement… permitted by the Congress, currently $195,000 per year at age 62.”

The 2006 Pension Protection Act clarified IRS approval of cash balance plans, removing uncertainty over their legal status and making it easier to establish and administer them.  Between 2006 and 2010, almost 4,400 cash balance plans were created, compared with 1,684 between 2000 and 2005.

More than half of cash balance plans exist at medical, dental, legal and other professional offices, almost always in tandem with a profit-sharing plan. Contributions are usually in addition to paychecks, rather than deferred from paychecks, and go into a pooled, low-risk investment fund. Over 70% of the plans are at companies with fewer than 25 employees. The largest cash balance plans have typically been created at corporations that switched to them from defined benefit plans.

The 2012 National Cash Balance Research Report also showed that:

  • The average employer contribution to staff retirement accounts is 6% of pay in companies with both cash balance and 401(k) plans, compared with 2.3% of pay in firms with 401(k) alone.
  • Between 2008 and 2010, there was a 38% increase in new cash balance plans, despite the financial crisis and recession.
  • 84% of cash balance plans are in place at firms with fewer than 100 employees.
  • California and New York together account for 23% of all cash balance plans nationally, but the fastest growth in new plans has been in Florida, Texas and Michigan.

These and other highlights of the 2012 National Cash Balance Research Report will be discussed in a free Cash Balance Outlook 2012 webinar led by Dan Kravitz on Thursday, August 9. 

© 2012 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

The Social Security Claiming Guide

The age at which you claim Social Security has a dramatic effect on the monthly benefits you and, if married, your spouse will get for the rest of your lives.  See the discussion on how much income will you need in retirement, how much really secure income will you need, and more.  Download the full guide.

Life insurers face opportunities, constraints in retirement market: Conning

“In aggregate, the life insurance industry has the capital capacity to support a significant expansion of new retirement income sales.” So says a new Conning Research & Consulting report entitled, The Big Payout: Growing Individual Retirement Income Opportunities 2012.

An executive summary of the report, provided to the press, points out the opportunities and the challenges for life insurance companies in the face of the Boomer retirement wave. While it was not clear from the summary how much news life insurance executives and industry watchers might find here, Conning analyst Scott Hawkins, an author of the report, has proven highly knowledgable in the past.   

The latter part of the study, according to the table of contents, provides a probing discussion of the capital capacity issues that life insurance companies, and raises questions about competition between within a life insurer for the corporation’s free capital capacity, the impact of greater regulation of capital, and about the need to acquire new capital to respond to the income opportunity.

 “Conning’s analysis suggests that individual annuity insurers currently have some capacity for growth. Conning estimates that at the end of 2011, the individual annuity line held approximately $1.2 trillion in assets and the additional free capital could support an additional $600 billion in new assets. However, the aggregate amount of estimated free capital is not distributed evenly across all companies or insurance groups. As a result, some companies may have a better capacity to absorb new growth than others may,” the report said.

“Growth opportunities in other areas may place demands on some of that capital capacity,” the report continued. “In addition, regulatory clouds may inhibit insurers from deploying their capital in the short-term. However, given the potential market and its development over a long horizon, well-capitalized insurers can be expected to identify and pursue their opportunities in a growing retirement market.”

In a release, Conning said:

“At the end of 2011, for example, individual and group annuities held 46% of all defined contribution plan assets. Beyond annuities, however, we estimate there was an additional $7.3 trillion in combined IRA and defined contribution plan assets. Now, insurers have a growing opportunity to help individuals turn those assets into retirement income,” said Scott Hawkins, analyst at Conning Research & Consulting.

“Of course, these assets are attracting other competitors, primarily mutual funds who’ve also helped investors accumulate retirement assets, and insurers need to respond to that competition. However, turning those assets into a secure income stream for retirees requires managing investment volatility and longevity risk. Managing those risks plays to the natural competitive advantage insurers have over their competition.” 

Stephan Christiansen, director of research at Conning, added, “Our analysis highlights the need for insurers to meet the competitive challenge represented by the mutual fund industry, and refine their messaging to the retiree and pre-retiree segments. Adding to the competitive marketing complexity, insurers also face substantial investment issues related to these products, and statutory capital constraints. Yet those insurers that succeed in meeting these challenges may be positioned to enjoy their largest growth opportunity over the coming decade.”

The Big Payout: Growing Individual Retirement Income Opportunities is available for purchase from Conning Research & Consulting by calling 888-707-1177 or by visiting the company’s website.  

Pick and bankroll: Trade to Rockets saves Jeremy Lin over $1m/year in taxes

Jeremy Lin, the young Harvard-trained point guard who captured the hearts of New York Knick fans with a two-week burst of on-court heroics last spring, executed a sparkling tax arbitrage play when the Houston Rockets picked up his contract this week.

By moving from an ultra-high tax state to an ultra-low tax state, Lin can expect to pay over $1 million less a year in state and local taxes on his three-year, $25.1 million deal with the Rockets than if he’d gotten the same offer from the Knicks, according to Americans for Tax Reform, a Washington-based advocacy group.

As a Knick, Lin was subject to a top state income tax rate of 8.82%, with New York City adding another 3.876%. As a member of the Houston Rockets, he will have no state or local tax burden. At an average salary of $8,366,667, Lin will save over $1 million annually in taxes. Endorsement earnings could push the tax savings substantially higher.

The undrafted Lin led the Knicks to wins in his first six starts, and became the first player in NBA history to score 20 points and record seven assists in each of his first five starts. His last-second three-pointer to beat the Toronto Raptors ignited the phenomenon of “Linsanity” among Knick fans. Texas may soon become known as the Lin Star State.

NY vs TX taxes on Jeremy Lin’s $8.4m salary

New York State tax burden/year

$323,034 

New York City tax burden/year

$717,382 

Texas state tax burden

$0  

Houston city tax burden

$0

Total Income Tax Burden

$1,040, 416

Financial service firms will focus on retirement income offerings, advisor training: Hearts & Wallets

In their search for future market share, financial services firms intend to address a wider range of household financial needs, to emphasize retirement income planning, and to step up their efforts to educate advisors, according to the Hearts & Wallets’ 2012 industry survey.

The Massachusetts firm, founded by Chris J. Brown of Sway Research and Laura Varas of Masthill Consulting, conducts an annual report based on surveys of executives at some two dozen financial services firms and of consumers in more than 5,000 U.S. households, as well as on focus groups with consumers.

Three of the top ten trends identified in the research this year were:

  • Expanded scope of retirement goals and general advice. Offerings will expand to present the whole financial picture, including health (including life and long-term care insurance), taxes, real estate, lifestyle considerations (Including estate planning and couples dialogue) and optimal timing on how to take Social Security. The best delivery methods may be through modular architecture or a series of advice modules.
  • Advances in income annuities optimization approaches. More than three-quarters (77%) of respondents indicate that developing better retirement income capabilities is a top priority. Recommending how to use income annuities as an asset location and income source is gaining in importance. As the retirement income market size grows with more people, who have fewer pensions, the need to generate income from various sources when full-time work stops will increase. Credible, empirical methodologies will become a competitive necessity.  
  • Boom in advisor education. Firms plan to make advisor education a major priority. Advisors need more support to execute expanded scope, illustrate tradeoffs, annuity optimization and advice on account draw down and savings. Structured approaches supported by tools minimize errors, create efficiencies and share best practices.

Hearts & Wallets’ comprehensive industry benchmark survey, The Hearts & Wallets 2012 Retirement Income Competitive Landscape Survey, was conducted in the spring of 2012. Its findings, along with best practices, top 10 trends and an in-depth review of advice experience, are within the full study, Inside Retirement Income Advice 2012: A Comprehensive Review of Advice and Guidance Experiences, the Engines that Power Them, and Retirement Income Strategies for the Future.

© 2012 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

New report specifies best and worst of the TDF universe

In the fifth and latest iteration of their Popping the Hood series, BrightScope and Target Date Analytics analyze and grade 49 fund families from 41 different fund companies, including 420 target date funds. Each fund series receives an overall score and ranking as well as a five-part evaluation covering company/organization, strategy, performance, risk, and fees.

Investments in TDFs continue to grow, the report shows. The product category saw only a modest 9.3% increase in assets under management in 2011 due to poor market performance in second half of the year, but BrightScope projects that target date assets will reach $2 trillion in 401(k) plans by 2020.

The primary distribution channel for TDFs is likely to remain defined contribution plans, for at least two reasons: first, 401(k) participants prefer a ‘buy and forget’ strategy that doesn’t require regular portfolio rebalancing and, second, TDFs are approved by the Department of Labor as a qualified default investment alternative (QDIA).

BrightScope and Target Date Analytics published the following highlights of the report, which sells for $1,200 per copy ($20,000 for group distribution):

  • American Century received an “A” ranking for the second year in a row. American Century LIVESTRONG Portfolios have received an A grade in every report since Popping the Hood II.
  • JPMorgan and MFS are also top performers, receiving an overall “A” for the second straight year.
  • Putnam jumped up to an “A” in 2012 after earning a “C” in Popping the Hood IV. They switched from a “Through” strategy to a “To” strategy in 2010 and began investing in alternative asset classes.
  • The number of target date fund families is no longer increasing. New entrants include BlackRock LifePath Index and Lincoln Financial Group’s Presidential Protected Profiles. Columbia (F in Hood IV, D in Hood V), Oppenheimer (F in Hood IV, C in Hood V), and Goldman Sachs (F in Hood IV, F in Hood V) all recently announced that they would be closing down their target date funds in 2012.
  • Some fees have dropped significantly since the last study. Allianz reduced fees from an average of 0.91% to 0.64% Nationwide reduced fees from an average of 0.64% to 0.42% PIMCO reduced fees from 0.88% to 0.80%.
  • The standard to be a truly low cost, index TDF fund series is now under 20 basis points thanks to Vanguard (0.18%), TIAA-CREF Lifecycle Index (0.18%) and Fidelity Freedom Index (0.19%). BlackRock LifePath Index (0.28%) and iShares (0.31%) are close behind.
  • Fees as a whole are still high – 72 basis points is the average institutional TDF fund – but that has come down 3 basis points since last year.
  • The percentage of equity held in TDFs at the target date appears to have stabilized at about 42% in 2011 after increasing from 40% to 43% from December 2007 to December 2010.

In 2011, Popping the Hood IV noted that number of funds with a “To” the target date strategy was increasing.

  • At the end of 2010, 40% of the funds were using a “To” compared with 30% at the end of 2007.
  • The db-X TDFs switched to a “To” strategy in 2011, and the new BlackRock LifePath Index funds also use a “To” strategy, so the percentage was up to 42% by the end of 2011.
  • With Columbia, Oppenheimer, and Goldman Sachs closing down their TDFs (all of which use a “Through” strategy), that percentage should rise to nearly 45%, or 21 out of 47, by the end of 2012.

Performance and risk metrics in Popping the Hood are based on three years of performance data, which no longer include 2008. Fund families that sustained big losses in 2008 therefore got a fresh start in this year’s report. Fund families that take more risks and hold higher amounts of equities may benefit. New strategies are being utilized, for example:

  • ETF usage in TDFs is growing. iShares (100% ETF), Lincoln’s Presidential Protected Profile (over 90% ETFs), BlackRock LifePath, BlackRock LifePath Index, and State Farm all have at least 50% allocation to ETFs. Four other fund companies increased their allocations to ETFs in 2011. Fourteen fund companies invest in ETFs, representing 28% of the fund families in the study.
  • There are now 11 all-index-fund TDFs. BlackRock LifePath Index and Presidential Protected Profiles were created in 2011 and both utilize index funds exclusively. BlackRock is following the trend set by Fidelity, ING, TIAA-CREF, and John Hancock in launching an index fund alternative to its standard TDFs.
  • Invesco and PIMCO both utilize absolute-return, volatility management strategies that include alternative assets such as futures and derivatives. They are having success with both fund families receiving an Overall “A” in Popping the Hood V.
  • Non-traditional asset classes such as TIPS, real estate, and commodities are slowly gaining traction in the TDF marketplace. Those three asset classes now comprise about 6% of the underlying holdings of target date funds, compared to about 4.5% at the end of 2009. AllianceBernstein, Allianz, and Fidelity are particularly notable for increasing their allocations to these asset classes, to the point where they commonly comprise 15%-50% of the portfolios of their TDFs.

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