Archives: Articles

IssueM Articles

A Primer for Annuity Newbies

Many advisers have joined the Retirement Income Journal community recently, and many of them are new to the world of annuities. I’ve been asked to create a quick tutorial on this complex topic, if brevity with annuities is possible.

Annuities are special tools for investors who are willing to give up part of the upside potential of their investments in return for some protection against the downside risk. Unfortunately, to everyone’s confusion, most journalists mash-up the characteristics of different types of annuities when describing them.

All annuities do share certain qualities: They offer tax benefits, only life insurers can issue them, and every contract allows the owner to convert the underlying assets into an annuity—an income stream that will last for a certain period or for the owner’s entire life.

But the similarities end there. I first divide annuities into two categories: those used primarily for asset accumulation before retirement and those used primarily for generating income in retirement. Within each of those two major categories, I indicate the different ways they are invested: in mutual funds, bonds, or options.

Bear in mind that this article covers only the crests of the annuity mountain range; there are not only endless valleys but also countless cave systems waiting to be explored. Each of the product types described below exhibits almost infinite variation, and the variations themselves fluctuate over time.

Annuities for asset appreciation (before or during retirement)

Using bonds (with no risk of loss). Suppose you’re looking at certificates of deposits as safe short-term investment but the yields don’t interest you. You might look at fixed deferred annuities. You hand your $100k over to a life insurance company. The insurer puts your money into its general fund, where it earns about 4% per year. It subtracts its expenses—say, 1.5%—and pays you 2.5% a year. You have no risk of loss. Advisers must have insurance licenses to sell these products.

Using mutual funds (with risk of loss). You may have a large sum—up to $1 million or so—that you’d like to see grow tax-deferred for several years. You’ve already contributed the maximum to tax-deferred accounts like IRAs or 401(k)s. You’d also like to trade funds without generating taxable gains. Consider a deferred variable annuity. You invest in a mix of stock, bond or balanced mutual funds. The money resides in a “separate account” (outside the insurer’s general account) with your name on it. The mutual funds can gain or lose value, so you have a risk of loss. Only advisers with security licenses can sell this product.

Using options (with zero risk of loss). What if you’re unsatisfied with fixed annuity yields but don’t want to take the risks associated with mutual funds. You might compromise by purchasing a fixed indexed annuity (FIA). You hand your $100k over to a life insurance company. The insurer puts your money into its general fund, where it will earn about 4% per year. Then, instead of paying you 2.5% per year, it spends that $2,500 on options on an equity index or exchange-traded fund.

If the index goes up and the options pay off, you participate in the gain. You can’t lose money if you hold the contract until it expires at the end of a 1, 3, 5, 7 or 10-year term. You can—but aren’t certain—to gain one or two percent more than if you had bought a fixed deferred annuity. Advisers with insurance licenses can sell these contracts.

Using options (with limited risk of loss). What if you like the idea of a fixed indexed annuity but you want a chance for higher gains and you’re willing to accept a limited risk of loss? Then you’d be talking about products called structured variable annuities (aka registered index-linked annuities or RILAs). You’ll be investing in options, but this time you have a wider range of possible outcomes. You might, for instance, lose up to 10%, or you might incur the net loss beyond the first 10%, but your potential gain is higher than any FIA can offer.

Annuities that produce retirement income

Using bonds, with mortality pooling, with limited liquidity, starting now. You’re ready to retire and start living on savings. You don’t have a pension. You have Social Security but it won’t cover all your basic expenses. You’ve heard that you can’t spend more than 3% of your savings each year without a risk of running out of money before you die. You don’t have a pension, but you’re willing to buy one of your own, with part of your savings (tax-deferred or taxable). You can buy a single premium immediate annuity (SPIA). Your premium goes into the insurer’s general fund, sequestered with the money from other people your age.

In return, you receive a fixed, guaranteed monthly or quarterly income for life or for a specific period of years (perhaps as part of a bucketing or income-laddering strategy). The safe annual payout will be about 5% of your initial premium. That’s more than the safe withdrawal rate because you’ll receive a bit of the original principal, a bit of the interest on the bonds in the general funds, and a bit of the assets of other annuity owners who die before you.

Using bonds (with mortality pooling, with limited liquidity, starting some years from now). Let’s suppose that you like the product just describe, but you want to delay your first payment for several years. A deferred income annuity (DIA) will do the job. Everything works the same as the single premium immediate annuity, but your income starts years in the future.

Using mutual funds (without mortality pooling, with full liquidity). Remember the variable deferred annuity from above? Imagine that a special feature of this product allows you to switch income on, switch it off, or take as much of your money out whenever you like—but still promising you (as long as you restrain your spending) that if your own money runs out before you die, then the insurance company will continue making monthly payments to you until you die. This special feature is called a guaranteed lifetime withdrawal benefit (GLWB).

Using options, without mortality pooling, with full liquidity. Imagine the GLWB I just described, but attached to a fixed indexed annuity instead of a variable deferred annuity. Contract owners buy the contract, receive interest credits and bonuses for up to 10 years, and then start receiving a guaranteed minimum amount of monthly income for life. They never lose access to the account value as long as it’s positive.

Using bonds, with mortality pooling, with limited liquidity, starting a few years from now, for distributions of qualified money after the Required Minimum Distribution start date. Invented by the U.S. Treasury in 2014, this product resolves a technical problem for people who couldn’t buy deferred income annuities with tax-deferred money from a 401(k) or traditional IRA because it would have conflicted with their obligation to begin withdrawing money from those accounts at age 70½ (now 72). The IRS now allows taxpayers to apply 25% of their tax-deferred savings (up to $130,000) to the purchase of an income annuity whose payments begin between age 72 and age 85.

Less common annuities

Medically-underwritten or “impaired annuities”. It’s a myth that people in poor health should not buy SPIAs because they’re likely to die before they get all their money back through monthly payments. But at least one life insurer (Mutual of Omaha) will enlarge the monthly payouts from a SPIA for people in poor health. They simply revise the person’s age upward. A 65-year-old man with a heart condition might be charged the same price for the annuity as a 72-year-old man in better health.

Charitable remainder annuity trusts. These contracts are useful for retirees who want guaranteed retirement income and a tax deduction for a future contribution to charity. The donor typically pays into a charitable trust, which pays the donor a fixed income stream until he or she dies. Any money that remains in the trust at the donor’s death goes to the charity.

Secondary market annuities. When the victim of a serious accident wins a large settlement in a personal injury lawsuit, the settlement often includes an annuity that pays an income for a specific number of years. To convert the annuity to cash, the injured party might sell it, at a discount, to a settlement company. The settlement company will then sell the annuity through a broker to a member of the public who wants a specific payout at or over a specific time.

Such contracts have been controversial, because in some instances accident victims accepted less than fair compensation for their annuities. The industry has largely survived legal scrutiny, but the supply of secondary market annuities is small. What’s the attraction? Their payouts are said to be about 15% higher than the payouts of retail period-certain single premium income annuities.

Conclusion

Annuities are also accused of complexity. When they are, it’s partly because so many mathematical variables—interest rates, volatility levels, mortality rates, the number of people who keep their contracts or surrender them—enter the calculation of whatever financial outcome the life insurer has promised the purchaser.

Annuities are also accused of having high costs, and sometimes they do. That’s partly because annuities are investments with warranties—you’re paying an insurer to absorb the cost of a market crash or the risk that you’ll outlive your savings. Traditional stocks and bonds make no promises, and the owner bears both the upside and the downside risk. Annuity fees can be high when the life insurer recoups the upfront fee that it pays a broker—unless the purchaser pays the broker himself—by charging the client annual fees.

© 2020 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

BlackRock Makes a Bundle (with Annuities)

BlackRock, the $7.43 trillion asset manager, is bundling an optional income annuity with its LifePath target date funds (TDFs). With Brighthouse Financial and Equitable as the first annuity providers and Voya as one potential recordkeeper, it aims to offer plan sponsors a complete pension-like solution for their participants.

“We’ve brought together all the necessary players in the ecosystem to provide participants with an all-in-one solution,” a BlackRock spokesperson told RIJ this week.

The new program is called LifePath Paycheck. BlackRock, which manages $1.1 trillion in DC assets, told RIJ that it’s currently talking with specific plan sponsors about offering LifePath Paycheck to participants.

Here’s how the program will work, according to BlackRock’s website:

  • A participant in an employer-sponsored retirement plan invests in (or is defaulted into) an age-appropriate LifePath TDF, which uses the standard TDF allocation strategy of starting with a high equity allocation and gradually shifting toward 60% fixed income by the time the participant reaches age 55.
  • At age 55, part of the participant’s bond allocation begins moving into a group annuity contract (presumably underwritten by Equitable or Brighthouse). The gradual transfer process, which takes five to 10 years depending on when the employee retires, mitigates interest rate risk. Eventually it amounts to about 30% of the employee’s TDF assets.
  • When participants retire (at age 59½ or later), BlackRock makes it easy for them to use the group annuity assets to buy an individual income annuity (single or joint, life-only or cash refund) out of plan.  (BlackRock selects the allocation to each insurer, not the individual, and is expected to expand the number of insurers over time.) The employee’s remaining assets will stay in the 401(k) plan in a 50% stocks, 50% bonds LifePath PayCheck Retirement Fund. An important goal here is to retain assets that might otherwise be rolled over to a brokerage IRA.

Anne Ackerley

“We know that if we ask someone if they would like guaranteed income, they say yes. This removes the complication of having to find an insurance company, figuring how much to annuitize and when to buy,” said Anne Ackerley, head of BlackRock’s retirement group, in a release. “All of that has been decided for people.”

It was only a matter of time before new methods to turn 401(k) plan assets into lifetime income hit the market. A provision of the SECURE Act of 2018 reduced a plan sponsor’s potential liability for partnering with an annuity provider that later goes bankrupt—thus relieving one of the anxieties that prevent 401(k) plan sponsors from offering annuities as a plan option.

With LifePath Paycheck, BlackRock will serve as the fiduciary in choosing the annuity providers. There’s an in-plan group annuity inside the LifePath TDF that acts as a bridge to the individual income annuity. The individual annuity—the essential new piece—sits outside the plan as a rollover option.

BlackRock is also taking advantage of the fact that TDFs are QDIAs (qualified default investment alternatives); participants can be auto-enrolled or defaulted into TDFs—and into retirement solutions that are attached to them, such as Prudential’s IncomeFlex GLWB (guaranteed lifetime withdrawal benefit).

SponsorMatch was the seed

BlackRock was looking for a solution like Paycheck. For all its strength as an asset manager, BlackRock was at risk of being left out of the retirement income business as Boomers migrate into retirement. Its CoRI wizard, a calculator that expressed the cost of retirement income, has educational value, but is not a financial product per se.

Larry Fink

BlackRock doesn’t have a life insurance subsidiary, so it couldn’t follow the example of TDF competitors like Empower and Prudential, both of which have been able to add income-generating “guaranteed lifetime withdrawal benefits” to their TDFs. Even so, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink had tasked his executives with enhancing BlackRock’s presence into the retirement income space.

“Retirement income must be part of DC’s next evolution,” says BlackRock’s website. “Fortunately, many of the plan design tools and best practices used by today’s highly evolved DC system can help drive adoption of lifetime income solutions by giving participants a sense of ownership of their growing income stream.”

Within BlackRock’s institutional memory lay the seeds of a retirement income product. In 2008, MetLife (which spun Brighthouse Financial off as an independent company in 2017) and Barclays Global Investors (acquired by BlackRock in 2009) co-created “SponsorMatch.”

SponsorMatch involved ongoing contributions to an optional income annuity. But the two solutions are not identical. SponsorMatch segregated employee contributions and employer matching contributions, with the latter going into the income sleeve. At retirement, participants could choose whether to take the contents of the sleeve as a lump sum or an annuity.

Like SponsorMatch, Paycheck is optional. At no point does it limit participants’ access to their money or prevent them from choosing lump sum distributions at retirement. It mainly simplifies the purchase of an annuity for TDF-owning participants, and it reduces the volatility of the participant’s pre-annuity account during the period leading up to the annuity purchase.

Participants would be expected to resist a mandatory annuity, but there’s a cost to letting people keep all their options open. There’s no illiquidity premium. Annuities are able to offer guaranteed rates and protection from risk only when the life insurer can sequester your money and/or pool it with other people’s money.

With Paycheck, participants don’t appear to get an illiquidity benefit until or unless they buy an (illiquid) income annuity from Brighthouse or Equitable. It’s interesting, nonetheless, that participants pay no fee (other than the TDF fee) for Paycheck. With the competing TDF/GLWB model, the TDF provider might charge an annual GLWB fee of perhaps 0.3% of the entire TDF value, starting at age 45 or so. A participant might pay the fee for decades and never receive a tangible benefit.

The main advantage of Paycheck might be convenience. It facilitates the often-complex process of learning about, choosing and buying an income annuity. That may also be why BlackRock is touting its use of Microsoft’s multi-purpose cloud-based Azure technology as the platform for Paycheck. Azure will presumably facilitate integration with the life insurers, recordkeepers, and potentially other third-parties.

Solutions like LifePath Paycheck are likely to get the most traction at large companies. The people who allow themselves to be passively defaulted into a TDF may not be those with the biggest balances. And it will take a big TDF balance to buy a LifePath Paycheck annuity that generates more than a few hundred dollars of monthly income in retirement.

For the record

As of the end of 2019, according to BlackRock’s most recent 10-K filing, the firm reported pension plan assets of which $2.6 trillion in long-term institutional AUM (assets under management) for defined benefit and defined contribution plans and other pension plans for corporations, governments and unions.

Defined contribution represented $1.1 trillion of BlackRock’s total pension AUM. Its defined contribution channel had $16.7 billion of long-term net inflows for the year, driven by continued demand for the LifePath target-date suite. Multi-asset strategies, including the LifePath target-date suite, had net inflows of $28.8 billion.

BlackRock’s target date and target risk products grew 11% organically in 2019, with net inflows of $23.5 billion. Institutional investors represented 90% of target date and target risk AUM, with defined contribution plans representing 84% of AUM. Flows were driven by defined contribution investments in the LifePath offerings, which consist mainly of index funds.

© 2020 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Research Roundup

For some of us, the economy is “on hold.” But many people are doubling down on work, either to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic, to help their businesses survive it, or because it offers a new opportunity to learn how (and how not) to preserve financial stability.

For weeks, studies have been gushing from the National Bureau of Economic Research and elsewhere on the economic implications of COVID-19. Economists are dissecting the virus’ impact on asset prices, employment, government policy, public sentiment and more.

Below you’ll find summaries of (and links to) seven of those publications. These papers cover the Fed’s support for the bond market, the poor design of the Paycheck Protection Program, the investment acumen of U.S. Senators, the damage experienced by the owners of America’s smallest businesses, and other topics.

“When Selling Becomes Viral: Disruptions in Debt Markets in the COVID-19 Crisis and the Fed’s Response,” by Valentin Haddad and Tyler Muir of the UCLA Anderson School of Management and Alan Moreira of the University of Rochester.

In mid-March of this year, a strange thing happened in the bond market. In defiance of economic models, the prices of ordinarily safe Treasuries, investment-grade bonds, and some bond exchange-traded funds (ETFs) suddenly dropped, creating temporary opportunities for bargain hunters but angst among Federal Reserve officials.

Given the panic over COVID-19, it made sense for stock prices to tank. But Treasury and investment-grade bonds weren’t at risk of default and the cost of insuring them never changed. In this paper, a team of three economists plumbs the mystery.

The most likely reason for the flash crash, they report, was that “some investors were particularly desperate for cash, possibly due to mounting losses, and liquidated many positions to obtain cash on short notice. These investors focused on the initially more liquid and safe securities: Treasury ETFs, investment-grade corporate bond ETFs, and the most liquid securities within each universe.”

But that didn’t explain who those nervous investors were, or why “balance sheet space suddenly became so expensive for them” (i.e., why they felt so much pressure to deleverage). Nor did it explain why deep-pocketed pension funds and insurance companies didn’t instantly step into the market and nip the sell-off in the bud.

That action fell to the Federal Reserve, which announced March 23 that it would buy the safe bonds. Turmoil in lower-rated bonds, including high-yield, was eased by the Fed’s April 9 announcement that it would increase its purchases of investment-grade debt.

Did the Fed over-react to an isolated case of mispricing? The answer is yet to be determined. “It remains unclear the ultimate goals of the Fed intervention, and whether it should have intervened,” the authors wrote. “Specifically, the rationale for the 2008 interventions—limited risk-bearing capital in the financial sector and widespread bank runs—didn’t seem present in 2020.”

Did the Paycheck Protection Program Hit the Target? by Joao Granja, Constantine Yannelis, and Eric Zwick of the University of Chicago Booth School, and Christos Makridis of the MIT Sloan School.

If the goal of the federal government’s Paycheck Protection Program was to loan operational but cash-starved companies enough liquidity to pay their workers for 10 weeks and prevent COVID-19-related layoffs or bankruptcies, its results were mixed, these professors believe.

Some 5,500 banks have so far made over 4.3 million Small Business Administration loans worth more than $513 billion. The loans will be forgiven if used for payroll and essential expenses like rent. But these researchers found that most of the money went to companies that were already good customers of banks that aggressively promoted the program, rather than to firms that needed the money most.

“PPP loans were disproportionately allocated to areas least affected by the crisis: 15% of establishments in the regions most affected by declines in hours worked and business shutdowns received PPP funding; [but] 30% of all establishments received PPP funding in the least affected regions,” the authors write.

Four banks that normally account for 36% of the small business lending business in the U.S.—JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citibank—made the largest PPP loans but, overall, disbursed less than 3% of them. The authors found that significant, and concluded overall that little effort went into directing the loans to the companies or regions that needed them most.

“How Are Small Businesses Adjusting to COVID-19? Early Evidence from a Survey,” Edward L. Glaeser, Michael Luca, and Christopher T. Stanton and Zoë B. Cullen of Harvard, Alexander W. Bartik of the University of Illinois and Marianne Bertrand of the Booth School.

You have to feel empathy for the owners, chefs, greeters, servers, busboys and dishwashers at American eateries. An academic team conducted a survey in late March of 5,800 businesses—most with fewer than 10 employees—showed that restaurants are the industry economically hardest-hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. Among their findings:

  • 55% of the businesses were still open at the end of March. Of those, the full-time employee headcount was down 17.5% and the part-time employee headcount was down 36%.
  • The banking, finance, real estate and professional services sectors generally expect to weather the crisis.
  • Restaurateurs saw a 30% chance of survival if the crisis lasts four months, and a 15% chance of survival if it lasts six months. Tourism and lodging firms saw a 27% chance of surviving a six-month crisis.
  • Most of the firms surveyed were tiny; 64% had <five employees and another 18% had five to nine employees.
  • 43% of businesses were temporarily closed; businesses had on average reduced their employee counts by 40% since January.
  • The median small business has more than $10,000 in monthly expenses and less than one month of cash on hand.
  • The majority of businesses planned to seek funding through the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) of the CARES Act. However, many expected to encounter problems accessing the aid, such as bureaucratic hassles and difficulties establishing eligibility.

 

“Relief Rally: Senators As Feckless As the Rest of Us at Stock Picking,” by William Belmont, Bruce Sacerdote, Ranjan Sehgal, and Ian Van Hoek, all of Dartmouth College.

Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) resigned from the chairmanship of the Senate Intelligence Committee after he was accused of unloading shares after a briefing he attended on the looming COVID-19 in late January—in time to avoid a 35% stock market crash.

If, as Burr claims, he acted on publicly available information, then he showed himself to be a more astute investor than most of his colleagues. An examination by four Dartmouth professors of the stock-trading behavior and returns of U.S. Senators from 2012 to March 2020 indicates mediocre stock-picking skill.

“Stocks purchased by senators on average slightly underperform stocks in the same industry and size (market cap) categories by 11 basis points, 28 basis points and 17 basis points at the one, three, and six-month time horizons,” respectively, the authors said.“We find no evidence that Senators have industry specific stock picking ability related to their committee assignments.

Neither Republican nor Democratic senators are skilled at picking stocks to buy, while stocks sold by Republican senators underperform by 50 basis points over three months. Stocks sold following the January 24th COVID-19 briefing do underperform the market by a statistically significant 9 percent while stocks purchased during this period underperform by three percent.”

In April 2012, Congress passed the “Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge Act” or the STOCK Act. It prohibits members of Congress and their staff from trading on non-public information. The Act also requires the President, Vice President, and their staffs to report trades that exceed $1,000 within 45 days of the transaction.

The bill was amended a year later and major pieces of it were reversed. But the Dartmouth researchers speculate that the Act may have significantly reduced opportunistic trading by legislators.

“How the Coronavirus Could Permanently Cut Near-Retirees’ Social Security Benefits,” by Andrew Biggs, American Enterprise Institute.

COVID-19 threatens everyone, but middle-income workers who reach age 60 this year could suffer a permanent drop in their annual retirement incomes, even if they aren’t laid off, writes economist Andrew Biggs of the American Enterprise Institute.

Social Security benefits are pegged to wage levels, and workers are especially sensitive to the average wage in the year they turn 60. If, as Biggs estimates, the U.S. wage index drops 15% this year, today’s 60-year-olds could lock in a 13% drop in their future Social Security benefits.

If Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and wages are 10% below the 2019 Trustees Report forecasts in 2021, 5% below forecasts in 2022, and return to 2019 Trustees Report projected levels by 2023, as Biggs assumes, lifetime benefits for a medium-wage earner with a life expectancy of 18 years at age 67 would fall by $70,193 in current dollars.

In the past, Biggs’ research has often focused on the benefits of indexing Social Security benefits to inflation, not wages. He’s shown, for instance, that such a change could dampen benefits enough to prevent the shortfall in Social Security funding that’s expected in 2034. In this paper, he suggests that using inflation to index benefits would eliminate the vulnerability of 60-year-olds to a drop in average wages.

“Covid-19 and the Macroeconomic Effects of Costly Disasters,” by Sydney C. Ludvigson of New York University, Sai Ma of the Federal Reserve Board, and Serena Ng of Columbia University.

Depending on which sector of the economy you’re looking at, the economic damage from the COVID-19 pandemic could last for anywhere from two months to more than a year, according to this study.“Judging by past natural disasters, COVID-19 is a multi-month shock that is not local in nature, disrupts labor market activities rather than destroys capital, and harms the social and physical well being of individuals,” they write.

“We find that the effects of the event last from two months to over a year, depending on the sector of the economy. Even a conservative calibration of a three-month, 60 standard deviation shock is forecast to lead to a cumulative loss in industrial production of 12.75% and in service sector employment of nearly 17% or 24 million jobs over a period of ten months, with increases in macro uncertainty that last five months.”

“COVID-Induced Economic Uncertainty,” by Scott R. Baker of the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern, Nicholas Bloom of Stanford, Steven J. Davis of the Booth School of Business, and Stephen J. Terry of Boston University.

These researchers identify three indicators—stock market volatility, newspaper-based economic uncertainty, and subjective uncertainty in business expectation surveys—that provide real-time forward-looking uncertainty measures.

“We use these indicators to document and quantify the enormous increase in economic uncertainty in the past several weeks,” they write. “Our illustrative exercise implies a year-on-year contraction in U.S. real GDP of nearly 11% as of 2020 Q4, with a 90% confidence interval extending to a nearly 20% contraction. The exercise says that about 60% of the forecasted output contraction reflects a negative effect of COVID-induced uncertainty.”

© 2020 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Honorable Mention

DOL allows electronic communications to plan participants

The U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) has published today a final rule that expands the ability of private sector employers to communicate retirement plan information online or by email. The rule allows employers to deliver disclosures to plan participants primarily electronically.

This action will save an estimated $3.2 billion in printing, mailing, and related plan costs over the next decade, the DOL said. The rule will also make disclosures more readily accessible and useful for participants, but preserve the rights of those who prefer paper disclosures.

On Oct. 22, 2019, the Department’s Employee Benefits Security Administration (EBSA) issued a proposed rule to allow plan administrators that satisfy certain conditions to notify retirement plan participants that required disclosures, such as a plan’s summary plan description, will be posted on a website. At the same time, participants can choose to opt out of electronic delivery or request paper copies of disclosures.

Following the Department’s proposal, plan sponsors and fiduciaries, plan service and investment providers, retirement plan and participant representatives, and other interested parties submitted several hundred written comments.

The final rule allows retirement plan administrators to furnish certain required disclosures using the proposed “notice-and-access” model. Retirement plan administrators also have the option to use email to send disclosures directly to participants. These administrators must notify plan participants about the online disclosures, provide information on how to access the disclosures, and inform participants of their rights to request paper or opt out completely. The new rule also includes additional protections for retirement savers, such as accessibility and readability standards for online disclosures and system checks for invalid electronic addresses.

The final rule furthers President Trump’s Executive Order 13847, “Strengthening Retirement Security in America,” which called on the Secretary of Labor to review actions that could be taken to make retirement plan disclosures more understandable and useful for plan participants, while also reducing the costs and burdens the disclosures impose on employers and plan administrators.

This rule also may help some employers and the retirement plan industry in their economic recovery from the disruption caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Many retirement plan representatives and their service providers, for example, have indicated that they are experiencing increased difficulties and, in some cases, a present inability to furnish ERISA disclosures in paper form. Enhanced electronic delivery offers an immediate solution to some of these problems.

Envestnet FIDx partners with RetireOne

FIDx, a product-agnostic platform that integrates the management of insurance and investment products, today announced a strategic partnership with RetireOne, the insurance and annuity back office for more than 900 registered investment advisers (RIAs) and fee-based advisors.

“The partnership supports a unified approach to connect insurance carriers, RIAs, and their existing wealth platforms. The alliance between FIDx and RetireOne will streamline the insurance experience for RIAs,” the companies said in a release this week.

The Envestnet Insurance Exchange, using FIDx technology, provides end-to-end annuity solutions, from pre- to post-issuance. RetireOne supports RIAs in planning, researching products, managing transactions post-execution, acting as agent of record, and creating necessary client reporting within the platforms they already use. This partnership with FIDx enables RetireOne to digitally access annuities through the Envestnet platform.

The Envestnet Insurance Exchange connects the brokerage, insurance, and advisory ecosystems. Together, Envestnet and FIDx have secured a strong line-up of annuity solutions from AIG Life & Retirement, Allianz Life, Brighthouse Financial, Global Atlantic Financial Group, Jackson National Life Insurance Co., Nationwide, Prudential Financial, and Transamerica. The Envestnet Insurance Exchange supports a wide range of both commission- and fee-based annuities.

Serving over 900 RIAs and fee-based advisors since 2011, Aria Retirement Solutions’ RetireOne is an independent platform for fee-based insurance solutions. With offerings from multiple “A” rated companies, RIAs may access this fiduciary marketplace at no additional cost to them or their clients.

What high-net-worth investors want: Cerulli

Asset and wealth managers currently servicing or seeking to grow their marketshare in the high-net-worth (HNW) market must be prepared to address investor needs with specific and targeted strategies that can protect client capital in increasingly volatile markets, according to The Cerulli Report – U.S. High Net Worth and Ultra High Net Worth Markets 2019.

Positioning capital preservation and tax-effective solutions will be of utmost importance for firms seeking to preserve and grow their share of market, the report said. Cerulli classifies HNW households as those with greater than $5 million in investable assets and ultra-high-net-worth (UHNW) households as those that own a minimum of $20 million.

When serving investors at the high end of the wealth spectrum, Cerulli finds that investment objectives shift away from wealth accumulation and toward preserving capital and tax efficiency. As more HNW investors re-evaluate their financial situation amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, providers must ensure that they are well aligned with their clients’ long-term objectives

More than four-fifths (83%) of HNW practices say wealth preservation is the most important investment objective when working with their clients, according to Cerulli’s research. Tax minimization (64%), wealth transfer (61%), and risk management (57%) are also rated as very important by more than half of HNW practices.

Firms need to be mindful of these underlying objectives and look to position relevant strategies that can help HNW investors minimize taxes and preserve wealth over time.

“As competition for HNW marketshare intensifies, asset managers that are able to provide relevant and timely solutions to meet the evolving needs of HNW investors will stand to benefit in the current market environment,” said Cerulli senior analyst, Asher Cheses, in a release.

Overall, HNW clients tend to be among the most sophisticated investors, and they often require a wide range of investment solutions to maintain their wealth across multiple generations. Given the complex needs of HNW clients, factors such as tax efficiency, long-term financial planning, and family governance are highly valued.

Advisors therefore need to be prepared to construct portfolios that take the appropriate risks into account and can weather the ups and downs of market cycles. “More than ever, in a period of heightened market uncertainty, wealth managers need to harness their value-added services to prove their worth and approach clients’ investment goals and priorities in a strategic manner,” Cheses said.

Lamarque promoted to general counsel at New York Life

Natalie Lamarque has been appointed New York Life’s General Counsel. She will have day-to-day oversight of the Office of the General Counsel, including the insurance and agency, investments, corporate practice, and tax teams. Lamarque will also join New York Life’s Executive Management Committee and continues to report to Chief Legal Officer Sheila Davidson.

Lamarque previously served as Deputy General Counsel, responsible for litigation and the legal responsibilities for the investment, asset management, technology and intellectual property areas. She also chaired the company’s Privacy Working Group, a multidisciplinary internal thinktank that serves as a resource for the company on matters related to privacy.

Lamarque joined New York Life in 2014 as an Associate General Counsel in the Litigation Group. She served as Chief of Staff to the Chief Legal Officer and as a member of the Corporate Compliance Department, supervising the Sales Practice Review team.

Lamarque was an Assistant United States Attorney in the Southern District of New York where she prosecuted an array of federal crimes, including racketeering, insurance fraud, money laundering, bank fraud, credit card fraud, and identity theft.

Earlier in her career, she was an Associate in the Litigation Department of Debevoise & Plimpton LLP, focusing on white-collar defense, anti-corruption, and Foreign Corrupt Practice Act investigations. Lamarque received her bachelor’s and law degree from Duke University.

Did Adding Trump’s Name Slow the Stimulus Checks?

Did the Treasury Department’s decision to put President Trump’s name on the coronavirus stimulus checks slow the mailing of those checks? Of course it did, despite Administration claims to the contrary.

The decision surrounding Trump’s name triggered a series of time-consuming steps. The White House consulted with top Treasury officials who, in turn, talked to top IRS officials, who, after some delay because of the political sensitivity of the matter, communicated with the agency’s staffers who had to carry out the operation.

These civil servants had to redesign the basic check, mock up the display of the president’s name, and rejigger computer software needed to produce the checks. Then they had to have the redesign reviewed at the IRS, Treasury, and, likely, the White House to both insure against technical glitches and make sure the president was satisfied.

Did this take time? Of course, it did. Does it matter a lot? Well, that’s a different question.

It certainly took attention from other, more important, matters. Senior Trump Administration officials, including the Treasury Secretary and the Commissioner of the IRS, were spending time on marketing the president rather than on, say, reviving the economy or preventing occurrences of tax fraud likely to accompany any rush to get the payments out.

Did it slow down the payment of checks to people? Here’s how a Treasury spokesperson carefully answered that question:

“Economic Impact Payment checks are scheduled to go out on time and exactly as planned — there is absolutely no delay whatsoever…In fact, we expect the first checks to be in the mail early next week which is well in advance of when the first checks went out in 2008 and well in advance of initial estimates.”

Nothing in that statement says that the additional process did not slow down the mailing of the checks relative to when they could have been mailed out. The comparison with 2008 is irrelevant.

Meanwhile, the IRS released another statement, to wit:

Thanks to hard work and long hours by dedicated IRS employees, these payments are going out on schedule, as planned, without delay, to the nation.”

Well, the same calculations take place in all aspects of life as well.

Consider the brag about checks going “out on time” or “on schedule.” If I tell my wife I will be home by 7 PM and then take an extra walk around town but still get home by 7 PM, did my stroll delay my arrival?  Of course, it did. In fact, it is likely that IRS expected to be ahead of the original “schedule” before it had to add the president’s name to those checks.

Think of it this way: Suppose the IRS staff worked all night to add the president’s name to the checks. That all-night session may have avoided delay relative to the prior schedule. But, if the staff didn’t have to add his name, working that extra night could have been devoted to getting the checks out earlier.

Maybe figuring out the extent of any delay isn’t at the heart of the issue. There are more important matters to worry about in these days of COVID-19. Even if somehow all this extra effort caused no delay, it’s demeaning to ask career professionals in places like IRS to devote their time and attention to promoting the president’s reelection.

This request has nothing to do with helping the taxpayers they pledge and, as the IRS release indicated, “work hard” to serve. Worse yet, this accommodation of the president’s wishes reinstates a bad precedent for political interference in the operations of the IRS. These actions have real consequences, none of them good.

This column originally appeared on TaxVox on April 30, 2020.

One bright spot in first quarter annuity sales

Sales of structured indexed variable annuities (aka registered index-linked annuities or RILAs) were $4.9 billion in the first quarter 2020, up 38% from the prior year, according to final results from the Secure Retirement Institute (SRI) U.S. Individual Annuity Sales Survey.

“Current market conditions favor RILA products more than fixed indexed annuities (FIA) as the increase in market volatility will help support crediting rates in RILAs,” said Todd Giesing, senior annuity research director, SRI, in a release today. “As a result, SRI is forecasting RILA sales to increase more than 10% in 2020 while FIA sales are expected to fall about 20%.”

Jackson National was the top seller of all types of annuities in the first quarter of 2020, with variable annuity sales of $3.98 billion and total sales of just under $5 billion. AIG Companies sold the most fixed annuities, with $2.52 billion, just ahead of New York Life at $2.37 billion. Total industry sales were $55.87 billion, with the top 20 companies accounting for 77% of the total. For rankings, click here.

Final FIA sales were $16.2 billion, down 10% from first quarter 2019. This marks the third consecutive quarter of declines for FIAs. Continued low interest rates are expected to dampen FIA sales throughout the year. SRI is forecasting annual sales of $60 billion or less, far below the record sales of $73 billion set in 2019.

“Accumulation-focused FIAs without guaranteed lifetime benefit riders (GLB) experienced the greatest decline in the first quarter, down 13% compared with prior year,” Giesing said. “These products’ crediting rates continued to decline in the first quarter because of the unfavorable interest rates, which were further exacerbated by the significant rate drop in March.”

Sales of fixed-rate deferred annuities dropped 35% in the first quarter, to $9.8 billion, compared with prior year. This was 4% higher than sales in the fourth quarter “as investors sought the principal protection these products offer,” the release said.

SRI predicts fixed-rate deferred annuity sales will benefit from investors seeking principal protection, which will keep sales even with 2019 levels despite the ultra-low interest rate environment.

“As we saw during the Great Recession, we expect fixed-rate deferred product sales to remain steady in the second quarter as consumers seek to protect their investment from market volatility and losses,” Giesing said.

Income annuity sales plunge

Total income annuity sales fell 29% in the first quarter of 2020, compared with first quarter of 2019. Falling interest rates have deterred investors from purchasing these products.

Sales of single premium immediate annuities (SPIA) totaled  $1.9 billion in the first quarter, down 32% from the first quarter of 2019. It was the lowest quarterly level of SPIA sales in nearly seven years. Deferred income annuities totaled $470 million in the first quarter, down 26% from 2019.

SRI is forecasting income annuities to continue to contract in 2020, falling more than 35% from 2019 sales totals.

Total variable annuity sales were $26.0 billion, up 14% in the first quarter due to RILA sales expansion, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of sales increases.

“Despite the market volatility in March, variable annuity sales performed well,” said Giesing. “There tends to be a lag between market conditions and sales so we expect to see the impact of March’s volatility in the second quarter.

“While RILAs are positioned to do well under these economic conditions and are expected to continue to perform well in 2020, SRI is forecasting overall variable annuity sales to drop 10% in 2020,” he added. “Sales of VA products in 2020 will mirror the trajectory we saw following the Great Recession. Market volatility and low interest rates will force companies to carefully manage their VA business, limiting sales — especially products with GLB riders.”

First quarter 2020 annuities industry estimates, representing 94% of the total market, can be found in LIMRA’s Fact Tank.

To see the rankings of the top 20 annuity issuers for the first quarter of 2020, visit First Quarter 2020 Annuity Rankings. For top 20 issuers of only fixed annuity writers for the first quarter 2020, visit First Quarter 2020 Fixed Annuity Rankings.

© 2020 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

 

 

Prudential (finally) joins structured variable annuity race

Prudential Financial has jumped into the fastest-growing segment of the beleaguered annuity market—the $17.4 billion market for structured variable annuities–by issuing its first registered index-lined annuity contract, called FlexGuard.

The contract, announced this week, has been issued as a B-share variable annuity (with a six-year surrender period with a 7% withdrawal penalty in the first year) and will be marketed through broker-dealers. A no-commission (I-share) version for fee-based advisers will be issued later this year, Prudential said. The product is registered with the SEC, so a prospectus is available. For a current rate sheet, click here.

In January 2018, Prudential issued its first fixed index annuity (FIA), called PruSecure. But the Federal Reserve’s easing policy, which started last August and accelerated with the COVID-19 crisis, brought lower interests and lower bond yields. That hurts the ability of life insurers to offer attractive potential crediting rates on FIAs.

“We accelerated our product launch [of FlexGuard] because of the interest rate environment,” Dianne Bogoian, vice president of product development at Prudential Annuities, told RIJ this week. “We have a number of brokerage firms approved to sell FlexGuard, and we’re rapidly expanding that list.”

The indexed/structured variable annuity product has generally found a Goldilocks spot in the market for accumulation-stage, risk-managed investment products. It offers more downside protection than a typical variable annuity and more upside potential than a typical FIA or other fixed income investment. As an insurance product, it also offers tax-deferred growth. While this product type is not designed to produce income, a contract owner can convert the assets to a retirement income stream.

With structured variable annuities, as with fixed indexed annuities (FIAs), the life insurance company typically invests the client’s premium in its general account and uses part of the income to buy options or other derivatives on the movement of an equity index such as the S&P 500 Index, an exchange-traded fund (ETF), or a customized benchmark.

Structured variable annuities have steadily grown in popularity over the past decade, since AXA (now Equitable) introduced the first one in 2010. They are not as sensitive to interest rate movements as FIAs; the recent drop in rates has reduced their potential yields. Issuers can also offer higher potential yields on structured variable annuities because the contract owners bear a limited risk of loss–either up to a “floor” or beyond a “buffer.”

Sales of structured variable annuities (also called Registered Index-Linked Annuities or RILAs) jumped 55% in 2019 over 2018, to $17.4 billion, according to the LIMRA Secure Retirement Institute. That’s far below 2019 sales of FIAs ($73.5 billion). But in the fourth quarter of 2019, FIA sales were down 13% from the fourth quarter of 2018 while RILA sales were up 39% over that span of time.

FlexGuard offers three crediting strategies: A point-to-point cap rate strategy that can work like a typical FIA; a “Tiered” Participation Rate strategy, and a Step Rate Plus strategy. Returns can be linked either to the S&P 500 Index or the MSCI-EAFE, which holds shares in companies in 21 developed countries outside the U.S. and Canada.

Point to point with a cap strategy. The investor can get the index return up to a cap over a crediting period of either one year, three years or six years. As for downside protection, the investor can choose to accept all loss beyond 10% over a one-year or three-year term, or zero loss over one year (with the S&P 500 Index only). Those who choose a three-year term can elect a buffer of 10% or 20%. Those who choose a six-year term 20% buffer, which means they accept net losses beyond the first 20%.

Tiered Participation Rate strategy. This strategy is for people willing to commit their money for the maximum six-year term. The investor earns 100% of the index return up to a cap (20%, for example) and 130% of any gain above the cap. If the index rose 80% in six years, the investor would get 20% plus 78% (1.3 x 60%) for a total of 98% over six years. The product has a 10% buffer.

Step Rate Plus strategy. In this strategy, available only with a one-year term, the investor earns a “step” rate (6%, for instance) if the index gain is positive but equal to or less than the step rate. If the gain exceeds the step rate, the investor earns (“participates in”) 90% of the total gain.

Unlike smaller annuity issuers, which buy the options for their FIAs and structured variable annuities from investment banks, Prudential creates its hedging strategies in-house, with help from financial engineers at Prudential Global Investment Management (PGIM).

Prudential’s fee-based MyRock variable annuity added a new “Dynamic Income Benefit” in April 2020 and an expanded fund lineup earlier in the year. “It provides greater market upside income potential, investment control and flexibility, lower cost compared to most other variable annuity income benefits, and the ability to carry over unused income from one year to the next,” a Prudential release said.

AIG adds new index to its Power Series FIAs

AIG Life & Retirement, a division of American International Group, Inc., has added the new Legg Mason Quality Dividend Index, which was developed exclusively for The Power Series of index annuities, from AIG member company American General Life Insurance Company. It will be distributed primarily through independent broker-dealers, banks and other financial institutions.

The Legg Mason Quality Dividend Index holds mainly high-quality dividend-paying stocks. It uses a “rules-based process to dynamically allocate between high dividend-paying stocks, stocks with high levels of price stability, and cash,” according to an AIG release. The allocation among stocks is adjusted monthly. Cash positions are managed daily.

© 2020 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Honorable Mention

DPL Financial Partners will distribute no-commission VA from Transamerica

DPL Financial Partners, an online insurance marketplace for registered investment advisors (RIAs), will offer Transamerica’s I-Share variable annuity to DPL’s 800 RIA member firms.

The annuity features subaccount options from American Funds, BlackRock, T. Rowe Price, Janus and other investment managers in equity, fixed-income and alternatives, along with several living benefits “expected to appeal to fee-only advisors and their clients,” according to a DPL press release.

The annuity’s optional living benefits provides the opportunity to lock in account value  annually, based on the highest monthly policy value (versus quarterly or annually), as well as several other living benefit riders with customizable features. DPL will begin offering the product on its platform in mid-May 2020.

NextCapital to provide ‘managed advice’ to MassMutual plan participants

Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance Company (MassMutual) announced today a new managed advice solution that allows for greater personalization of investment strategies.

The new service, called Manage My Retirement, is a professionally managed account service through NextCapital Advisers, Inc., an enterprise digital advice provider.

The service “will help defined contribution retirement plan savers choose a path to retirement that matches their unique personalities and circumstances with the goal of helping them achieve better retirement outcomes,” according to a MassMutual release.

The services are available for 401(k), 403(b) and 457 plans and can be customized with a specific plan’s available investment options.

NextCapital’s Manage My Retirement ‘advice engine’ builds a personalized retirement plan and portfolio for each participant, using up to 30 specific data points, including retirement age, savings rate, gender, marital status, health, salary risk, guaranteed income, and funding gap, among others.

These data points are used to create a personalized investment portfolio, which is monitored and automatically adjusted as circumstances change. Manage My Retirement also gives each participant a personalized retirement plan, which includes start date and savings recommendations, as well as retirement income forecasts.

“The $8 trillion defined contribution market is shifting to personalized managed advice to better meet the unique needs of each retirement saver,” said Rob Foregger, co-founder & EVP of NextCapital, in the release. “With over 2.6 million retirement plan participants, we are excited MassMutual has selected NextCapital’s digital advice platform to help deliver better retirement outcomes.”

Manage My Retirement will also focus on the needs of advisory firms and plan advisers. By leveraging NextCapital’s flexible technology, MassMutual can provide customized solutions for different firms. These firms can include their own investment selections, choose varying levels of advisory interaction, and choose their fiduciary role. They can even collaborate with MassMutual and NextCapital to adjust advice methodology inputs, like capital market assumptions.

NextCapital’s open-architecture digital advice solution provides integrated account aggregation, analytics, planning and portfolio management, and allows partners to customize advice methodology and fiduciary roles.

Great American enhances its Index Frontier contracts

Great American Life added three new indexed strategies to its Index Frontier registered index-linked annuities. The three new indexes are:

  • S&P 500 10% Buffer Indexed Strategy
  • iShares MSCI EAFE Conserve Indexed Strategy with 0% Floor
  • iShares MSCI EAFE Growth Indexed Strategy with -10% Floor

“The new Buffer strategy, which protects against the first 10% of losses at the end of each one-year term, gives consumers greater flexibility in how they choose to protect their money – and with the ability to reallocate among strategies at the end of each term, they can adjust their exposure in alignment with different market cycles,” a Great American release said.

Additionally, the new iShares MSCI EAFE indexed strategies offer exposure to developed international markets. Consumers can choose between the Conserve strategy, which offers complete downside protection, and the Growth strategy, which protects against losses in excess of 10%.

These new strategies are in addition to the Index Frontier’s current offerings, which provide exposure to the broad-based market, commodities and the real estate sector.

Equitable enhances its flagship Structured Capital Strategies registered index-linked annuity

Equitable, a subsidiary of Equitable Holdings, has enhanced its Structured Capital Strategies PLUS registered index-linked annuity—the first product of its type, first offered a decade ago by then-AXA Equitable—that offers clients some upside potential even when the S&P 500 benchmark index goes down.

The new feature, Dual Direction, is available within SCS PLUS annuities with the S&P 500 as the benchmark index. Dual Direction offers clients the following benefits:

  • If the S&P 500 benchmark index declines up to or equal to 10% at the end of the six-year investment time frame, clients earn a positive return equal to the percentage of the decline up to or equal to 10%.
  • If the S&P 500 benchmark index declines more than 10%, the client is protected from the first 10% of losses.

Recently, Equitable added a new feature in select versions of Structured Capital Strategies, which allows clients to invest on a one-year basis, giving them the flexibility to realize potential returns or partial downside protection more quickly.

Equitable introduced Structured Capital Strategies, the first registered index-linked, or buffered, annuity in 2010. Through Structured Capital Strategies, clients can participate in the performance of one of several mainstream equity market indices up to a cap, with Equitable absorbing the first -10%, -20% or -30% of potential losses.

Clients can choose the equity index on which the performance of their investment is based, such as the S&P 500 Price Return Index, Russell 2000 Price Return Index or iShares MSCI EAFE ETF, the duration of the investment and the level of downside protection based on their goals and risk tolerance.

© 2020 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

 

Government Purchases Might Speed the Recovery: Steuerle

The current recession derives from two sources: demand and supply. On the demand side, consumers are purchasing fewer durable goods (e.g., automobiles) and spending much less on services such as all forms of transportation.

On the supply side, there has been a massive decline in supply of goods and services as workers stay home and supply chains break, leading to a collapse of trade networks, further disrupting firms that can’t get the physical or worker inputs they need to produce their own output.

Accordingly, some writers, including my colleague, Howard Gleckman, have criticized the extent to which stimulus packages so far have emphasized the demand side of the market, particularly with rebate payments to almost everyone, regardless of need. My purpose here isn’t to measure the extent to which that criticism applies to all the provisions enacted so far, but rather to ask how future legislation can better be oriented toward increasing supply and demand at the same time and, thereby, increasing employment. The short answer: increase government purchases.

Basic economic theory teaches that under certain conditions government purchases do more than tax cuts or increases in transfers to stimulate the economy. That’s because a dollar of purchases effectively creates a demand for that purchase, leads to an increased supply of labor to fulfill that purchase, and then leaves a dollar of income in the hands of the those who supply the goods and services purchased. This is especially relevant in today’s economic downturn.

When government simply puts a dollar of tax cut or transfer increase in our hands, but without purchasing anything, we often simply tuck that dollar under the mattress, so to speak, in which case there is no increase either in demand or supply.
Consistent with health concerns, therefore, Congress should strongly consider which types of stimuli are most likely to help minimize supply disruptions and more immediately increase employment.

You can see such concerns expressed partly in the efforts of Congress to keep people on the payrolls of existing firms. Along the same lines, the President and others have also suggested ramping up spending on infrastructure. Of course, implementing this type of response requires some thought as to what can or must be produced, consistent with minimizing additional health threats to those involved.

Here are a few examples:
We will need many additional healthcare workers who, with minimal training, could perform routine functions, whether testing for the coronavirus in the tens of millions rather than tens of thousands, as now, or giving tens of millions of vaccine shots when they become available.

Government should start training more people to perform those functions now. Bill Gates has already suggested that we need to build the facilities now that will be able to generate billions of vaccines worldwide when that opportunity becomes available. Those production efforts and the training of health care workers are complementary actions.

Among the hardest hit of all sectors, restaurants deserve special attention. If we want to keep more of them viable, the government could give people vouchers that can be spent on take-out restaurant meals. Normally this would be quite inefficient, but it’s probably more efficient than simply paying restaurants to hang onto staff who have few functions to perform. More educators could be hired now to develop better online tools for teaching, not just for the short-term needs arising from social isolation, but for the longer-term opportunities that information technology provides.

State and local governments clearly have rising needs to serve their citizens even as their revenues start to plummet. Congress should ensure, to the extent possible, that much of the federal support given to those governments goes toward currently purchasing additional goods and services, as opposed to being saved to offset the tax increases or transfer cuts these governments may need to impose down the road.

Even independently of federal help, states facing balanced budget constitutional restrictions should realize that additional state and local purchases, even if offset by temporary tax increases or cuts in salaries, still increase output in times of high unemployment.

Charities need resources to deal with increased demands. The recently enacted $300 tax deduction for charitable contributions offered to non-itemizers in the CARES Act probably won’t increase either charitable giving or charitable output by much at all. Government instead could take steps to purchase more services from charities. Every dollar spent that way will increase charitable output by roughly the same amount, a much more efficient result.

Infrastructure may be hard to begin immediately; “shovel-ready” projects were hard to find in the Great Recession. However, the ramp-up could start now, particularly if the longer-term financing needed to support these projects was put into place when the projects were authorized.

While none of this is easy and certainly doesn’t address health and other welfare issues, the next tranches of Congressional legislation should increasingly give due consideration to the stimulative impact of additional purchases of goods and services in bringing workers back into the productive economy.

This article first appeared at Tax Vox on April 20. 

With BluePrint Income, AARP Ups its Ante on Annuity Sales

AARP members get a lot of discounts for their $16-a-year membership fees. They get discounts on steak dinners at McCormick & Schmick’s, cash-back on Chase credit-card purchases, 20% off the price of Harry & David’s curated fruit boxes, cheap ZipCar rates and so on.

With the purchasing power of 38 million age 50+ members behind it, AARP also offers deals on insurance—on MedicareAdvantage plans from United HealthCare, long-term care coverage from New York Life, auto insurance from The Hartford, and dental plans from Delta. There’s even coverage for your dog or cat from PetPlan.

Annuities are also on AARP’s menu of services for older Americans. Until recently, New York Life was AARP’s sole vendor of income annuities. This month, AARP switched gears to partner with Blueprint Income, a New York-based fintech firm, to create a multi-provider, multi-product online annuity sales platform.

“We thought that having a choice of annuities would be a benefit to our members,” said John Larew, president and CEO of AARP Services, Inc. (AARP Services, Inc., a for-profit company, is legally at arms-length from AARP, the non-profit organization that advocates for older Americans. AARP Services generated almost $840 million in royalty revenue for AARP in 2015, the most recent data available.)

AARP members who visit the platform will find quotes (generated by CANNEX) from seven highly-rated life insurance companies on the kinds of annuities that Americans buy the least of—single premium immediate and deferred income annuities (SPIAs and DIAs), Personal Pensions (DIAs that are funded with monthly contributions over decades) and CD-like multi-year guaranteed rate fixed deferred annuities (MYGAs).

The historically tiny sales of those products, and the nation’s return to an ultra-low interest rate environment, pose headwinds for Blueprint Income. Nonetheless, its young founders believe that simple, transparent annuities that pool longevity risk just need the right distribution technology and the kind of break that the partnership with AARP Services may provide.

AARP Services evidently felt the same. “When its contract with New York Life was expiring, AARP Services expressed some interest in working with us,” said Matt Carey, Blueprint Income’s CEO and co-founder (with fellow Penn alumnus Adam Colombo and fellow Wharton School alumnus Nimish Shukla). “They wanted something more like a platform, that was more ‘tech forward,’ and that had multiple life insurers.”

Quotes from seven insurers

If you visit the AARP/Blueprint site, the first thing you see is an image of a white coffee cup on a table in front of a tablet computer that displays sample annuity quotes. As you scroll down, you choose one of the three tracks: “Fixed Annuity” (MYGAs), “Income Annuity” (SPIAs, DIAs and Qualified Longevity Annuity Contracts or QLACs) and “Personal Pension,” which is a multi-premium deferred income annuity.

The site is mainly a quote-and-sales engine, plus lots of education and phone support, rather than a planning engine per se. If a visitor picks the Income Annuity path, he or she finds prompts for inputs about birth date, gender, state of residence and whether the annuity is for one or two people. The next page requests income start date, premium amount, and whether the premium payment is from a tax-deferred or taxable account. Then you click to see the exact quotes.

The annuity issuers include New York Life, Guardian Life, Mutual of Omaha, Western & Southern Financial Group, Pacific Life, Lincoln Financial, and Principal Financial Group. All are rated A+ or better by A.M. Best. All except two are mutual companies; Lincoln and Principal are publicly traded.

AARP members don’t necessarily get higher payout rates or better yields when they order an annuity on the platform. But they do get a complimentary annual “retirement income check-up” from a salaried, insurance-licensed Blueprint Income adviser—plus AARP’s implicit seal of approval.

What you don’t see on the site is a planning calculator per se. There’s no wizard that requires health status (for life expectancy estimates), total savings, home equity (for reverse mortgage or downsizing potential), estimated expenses in retirement, or guaranteed income sources—any or all of which would help determine what percentage of a person’s overall portfolio needs to be allocated to an income annuity.

“[A planning calculator] is not something that we have made available on the site, but we do assist clients with this kind of analysis on a case-by-case basis,” Carey told RIJ. “We’ve found that our clients are less exploratory [than many visitors to annuity sites]. Most come to the site with a specific premium they want to invest or income they want to receive in mind already.”

Technology rules

Other firms have sold income annuities over the Internet to consumers. Through the Fidelity Insurance Network, Fidelity investors can compare customized quotes from six different issuers. At Income Solutions, five annuity issuers compete for new business from individual visitors or advisers. Hersh Stern has been selling income annuities online at immediateannuities.com since 1996.

Nationwide recently tried partnering with a fintech firm on a pilot program selling multi-premium personal pensions online in Arizona, but discontinued that venture over a year ago. Other entrepreneurs, like David Lau of DPL Financial Partners and David Stone of ARIA/RetireOne, as well as SIMON and Halo, have created platforms where Registered Investment Advisors can buy no-commission annuities.

Carey started Blueprint Income (originally called Abaris) in 2014 while he was still a graduate student at Wharton. A stint at the Treasury Department, where he worked with Mark Iwry, a deputy Treasury secretary in the Obama Administration (and creator of the QLAC) got him fired up about the potential for applying fintech to annuities.

“When we adopted the b-to-c (business-to-consumer) model, people told us that it wouldn’t work,” said Carey. “But we now have a viable b/c model. The market is saying it wants an easier annuity buying process. People are looking to buy and not be sold. We grew 200% in past year on the revenue and premium sides. This year we’re well into the hundreds of millions of dollars in premium.”

You might think that consumer ignorance or resistance to annuities might be the biggest obstacle to the success of the b-to-c sales model, but historically there have been obstacles on the insurance company side—with slow processing, demands for paper documents, and long delays between impulse to buy and actual purchase.

So, Blueprint Income appears to have worked as much on streamlining the back-end of the process as on the design of its hip, Millennial-friendly client interface. “Our focus on the software development side has been on the functionality of our quoting software, digital application, and post-purchase policy management,” Carey told RIJ. “For example, the interface we built with Pacific Life that encompasses quoting, digital application, and order entry is a good example of this.”

Carey said that back-end technology is Blueprint Income’s edge. “We grew last year despite the interest rate environment because people are looking to buy and looking to buy in the way we offer,” he added. “It’s a way to do the entire process digitally, with no paper forms or six-week waits. We’re issuing policies in a single day. We’re the only company in the space that’s a software company first and not an insurance distribution company first.”

The 80/20 rule

Larew and Carey are both bullish on direct-to-consumer sales of annuities, despite the low interest rates, which have reduced yields on the most basic income annuities to about 5% for 65-year-olds, and despite the fact that most people aren’t ready to shop for annuities on their own.

“We did the research, and we could see that the reality of direct-to-consumer marketing of annuities has never lived up to its on-paper potential. It’s a complex sale, even for an educated consumer. You’re asking someone to write a large check, and there are psychological barriers to that. We’re not blind to the challenges but we’re very aware of the potential benefits,” Larew told RIJ.

Carey points out that low rates don’t negate the mortality-pooling benefits that come from life-contingent income annuities. “In terms of how interest rates affect annuity sales, the low-rate environment applies to all fixed investments,” he said.

“Unless we’re poised for a future where the risk premium is higher than in the past, people will have fewer options to get yield. One way to get reliable extra yield is from mortality pooling. People tend to think that interest rates will go back up, but we could be in a prolonged low rate environment. It means that they will have to find other sources of yield.”

Most laypersons don’t understand mortality pooling. But AARP is betting that a critical mass of willing annuity buyers exists. On the annuities platform, we’ll be “dealing with members of a segment of the consumer market who are comfortable making their own financial decisions,” said Larew. “In theory, that segment will grow as the advantages of this type of distribution channel becomes clear, as interest in the product grows, and as more people become accustomed to buying financial products direct via digital platforms.”

Carey adds: “We’ve observed that about 80% of the public don’t know about annuities, so you focus on the 20% who do, and you use that as the basis for your growth. Over time, with the Alliance for Lifetime Income publicizing the importance of guaranteed retirement income, and the SECURE Act making it easier to put annuities in 401(k) plans, there’s been a strong nudge. This is all creating a tailwind for us. Twenty percent is a large enough customer base to build a business on.”

© 2020 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

A Marvel of Financial Engineering

Issuers of fixed indexed annuities (FIAs) generate returns for contract owners based mainly on the movement of equity indexes. By purchasing options on the indexes with part of the income they glean from investing client money in bonds, they can capture some—but not all—of the index growth.

Low interest rates and high market volatility are headwinds for FIA issuers. Low rates can squeeze the issuer’s budget for buying option. Volatility can drive up the cost of options. But, internally, FIAs contain many levers and dials that an issuer can manipulate to burnish a product’s curb appeal.

Two powerhouses of the FIA world, AIG Life & Retirement and Scottsdale-based Annexus, a designer and distributor of FIAs, use almost every possible tool to enhance X5 Advantage, a new FIA with a non-optional lifetime income benefit. AIG’s American General Life subsidiary is the issuer.

The X5 Advantage orchestrates a symphony of deferral bonuses, a long surrender period, embedded fees, leverage, risk-sharing negative floors, assumed lapse rates, volatility-managed indexes, caps, participation rates, spreads and finely-tuned age-based payout rates to serve a surprising number of purposes.

With only a small bit of skin, indirectly, in the equity markets, X5 Advantage aims to satisfy the revenue needs of the life insurer, the distributor, the agent/adviser, and—eventually—to mitigate a client’s market risk, sequence risk, mortality risk, longevity risk and nursing home risk.

Impossible? Not if you hold it long enough. Like a tough cut of beef that becomes fit for a king if you cook it for a long time at a low temperature, this product aims to turn the little that the market offers right now into a feast for everyone involved. It’s a marvel of financial engineering.

Bonuses are the key

X5 Advantage has two stages: An accumulation stage that starts at purchase, and an income stage that starts no less than 10 years later, at the end of the surrender period. During the accumulation stage, the client gets interest credits based on the performance of options on volatility-managed equity indexes from PIMCO, Morgan Stanley or S&P.

The payout rate doesn’t reach 5% of the benefit base until age 70 for a single person (4.5% for a couple), but there are bonuses. During the accumulation stage, the benefit base (equal to the premium at the time of purchase) rises by 200% of each year’s earnings. During the payout stage, the benefit base rises by 150% of the annual earnings.

Here’s how AIG illustrates the product in its brochure. John, a 60-year-old who plans to retire at age 70, funds his X5 Advantage with a $100,000 premium and chooses a 10-year strategy with two five-year terms. Ten years later, his account value is $165,772. But, thanks to the annual bonus, his benefit base has grown to $247,937.

At age 70, and not before, John begins drawing an annual income of 5% of the benefit base, or almost $12,400. The benefit base, and the income stream on which it is based, both keep growing after income begins, by the aforementioned 150% of annual credited interest. These are better terms than a deferred income annuity (DIA) with 10-year deferral period could promise. Anecdotally, that’s partly because FIAs have higher lapse rates than DIAs, which are virtually illiquid.

If John becomes ill and needs nursing home care, he can receive double the usual income amount for up to five years. There are two death benefit options. If John died at age 70, for instance, his beneficiaries could get either his account value ($165,772) in a lump sum or his benefit base ($247,937) in five annual payments of $49,587 each.

Participation rates, spreads and risk-sharing

Those are the bonuses. What about the caps and participation rates on the interest crediting methods? The issuers carefully manage the portion of the index gains the FIA owner can lock in at the conclusion of each one-year, five-year, or ten-year crediting term.

And what about the indexes? In this case, the three custom indexes all contain volatility controls that can dampen the index gains from the inside and take out the market spikes.

Contract owners can get exposure to the Morgan Stanley Expanded Horizons Index, the PIMCO Global Elite Markets Index and an S&P 500 Daily Risk Control 7% USD Excess Return Index. The box below lists the current crediting rates, according to AIG’s product rate sheet.

From the X5Advantage Rate Sheet

As an example of volatility control, let’s compare the S&P 500 Daily Risk Control 7% USD Excess Return with the traditional S&P 500 Index. The risk-controlled version has a net one-year return of 3.87% while the traditional version has a one-year return of 2.31%. The “Excess return” part of the index name reflects the fact that the investment is leveraged; the contract owner gets the portion of the return (3.87% in this case) that was in excess of the cost of borrowing money to do the leveraging.

Looking again at the box above, you can see more of the dials and levers that allow the issuer to fine-tune the risk/return proposition. For instance, two of the crediting strategies have 1% “spreads.” That means the contract owner would get the participation rate (100%, 60% or 40%, depending on the strategy) of the index return minus 1%.

Both the five-year and 10-year strategies have a minus-5% floor on possible losses in any one-year or two-year term within a crediting period, respectively. (But a negative return for the entire crediting period is guaranteed not to occur.) This risk-shift to the client allows the issuer to advertise slightly higher caps by shifting some of the investment risk to the client.

The one-year strategies have participation rates that are less than 100%. If the index gained seven percent, for instance, the client gets either 45% or 60% of 6% (2.7% or 3.6%) depending on which index he or she chose. The one-year option also has a 1% spread, which is subtracted from the credited interest. It also has participation rates, which are alternatives to caps.

To protect the issuer, the rates are subject to change by the issuer at the end of each crediting period. To protect the client, there are guaranteed minimums. The five-year crediting strategies have a minimum participation rate of 50%, a maximum spread of 3%, and a minimum index term floor of -10%. The one-year point-to-point crediting strategies have a minimum participation rate of 25% and a maximum spread of 3%. The ten-year crediting strategies have a minimum participation rate of 50% and a maximum spread of 3%.

As good as it gets

The past dozen years have been tough for annuity issuers. With low bond yields reducing the return on their fixed income assets, but a booming equity market, they’ve had to create products, such as variable and index annuities, that tap into the bounty of the long bull market. It creates a lot of complex engineering to interface an insurer’s general account with the equity markets without violating any state or federal regulations.

For indexed annuities to do a lot with a little, they also need time. But as long as the contract owner holds onto the contract and follows its rules, several of his or her major retirement risks will be addressed. For near-retirees who can’t afford a fee-based adviser, products like the X5 Advantage may be as good as it gets under current market conditions.

© 2020 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Why the World Has a Dollar Shortage, Despite Massive Fed Action

How can the Fed launch an “unlimited” monetary stimulus with congress approving a $2 trillion package and the dollar index remain strong? The answer lies in the rising global dollar shortage, and should be a lesson for monetary alchemists around the world.

The $2 trillion stimulus package agreed by Congress is around 10% of GDP and, if we include the Fed borrowing facilities for working capital, it means $6 trillion in liquidity for consumers and firms over the next nine months.

The stimulus package approved by Congress is made up of the next key items:

Permanent fiscal transfers to households and firms of almost $5 trillion.

  • Individuals will receive a $1,200 cash payment ($300 billion in total).
  • The loans for small businesses, which become grants if jobs are maintained ($367 billion).
  • Increase in unemployment insurance payments which now cover 100% of lost wages for four months ($200 billion).
  • $100 billion for the healthcare system, as well as $150 billion for state and local governments. The remainder of the package comes from temporary liquidity support to households and firms, including tax delays and waivers.
  • Finally, the use of the Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund for $500 billion of loans for non-financial firms.

To this, we must add the massive quantitative easing program announced by the Fed.

First, we must understand that the word “unlimited” is only a communication tool. It is not unlimited. It is limited by the confidence and demand of US dollars.

I have had the pleasure of working with several members of the Federal Reserve, and the truth is that they know it is not unlimited. But they know that communication matters.

The Federal Reserve has identified the Achilles heel of the world economy: the enormous global shortage of dollars. The global dollar shortage is estimated to be $13 trillion now, if we deduct dollar-based liabilities from money supply including reserves.

How did we reach such a dollar shortage? In the past 20 years, dollar-denominated debt in emerging and developed economies, led by China, has exploded. The reason is simple, domestic and international investors do not accept local currency risk in large quantities knowing that, in an event like what we are currently experiencing, many countries will decide to make huge devaluations and destroy their bondholders.

According to the Bank of International Settlements, the outstanding amount of dollar-denominated bonds issued by emerging and European countries in addition to China has doubled from $30 to $60 trillion between 2008 and 2019. Those countries now face more than $2 trillion of dollar-denominated maturities in the next two years and, in addition, the fall in exports, GDP and the price of commodities has generated a massive hole in dollar revenues for most economies.

If we take the US dollar reserves of the most indebted countries and deduct the outstanding liabilities with the estimated foreign exchange revenues in this crisis… The global dollar shortage may rise from 13 trillions of dollars in March 2020 to $ 20 trillion in December … And that is if we do not estimate a lasting global recession.

China maintains $3 trillion of reserves and is one of the best-prepared countries, but still, those total reserves cover around 60% of existing commitments. If export revenues collapse, dollar scarcity increases. In 2019, Chinese issuers increased their dollar- denominated debt by $200 billion as exports slowed.

Gold reserves are not enough. If we look at the main economies’ gold reserves, they account for less than 2% of money supply. Russia has the largest gold reserves versus money supply. China’s gold reserves: 0.007% of its money supply (M2), Russia’s gold reserves: about 9% of its money supply.

As such, there is no “gold-backed” currency in the world. The best protected—in gold—the Ruble, suffers the same volatility in commodity slump and recession times as others due to the same issue of US dollar scarcity, although not even close to the volatility of those Latin American countries that face both falling US dollar reserves and a collapse in demand from their own citizens of their domestic currency (as in Argentina).

The Federal Reserve knows that it has the largest bazooka at its disposal because the rest of the world needs at least $20 trillion by the end of the year. So it can increase the balance sheet and support a large deficit increase of $10 trillion and the US dollar shortage would remain.

The US dollar does not weaken excessively because the rest of the countries are facing a huge loss of reserves while at the same time increasing their monetary base in local currency much faster than the Federal Reserve, but without being a global reserve currency.

Second, the accumulation of gold reserves of the central banks of the past years has been more than offset in a few months by the increase in the monetary base of the world-leading countries. In other words, the gold reserves of many countries have increased but at a much slower rate than their monetary base.

The Federal Reserve knows something else: In the current circumstances and with a global crisis on the horizon, global demand for bonds from emerging countries in local currency will likely collapse, far below their financing needs. Dependence on the US dollar will then increase. Why? When hundreds of countries try to copy the Federal Reserve printing and cutting rates without having the legal, investment and financial security of the United States, they fall into the trap that I comment in my book, “Escape from the Central Bank Trap: How to Escape From the $20 Trillion Monetary Expansion Unharmed” (Business Expert Press, 2017). A country cannot expect to have a global reserve currency and maintain capital controls and investment security gaps at the same time.

The ECB will likely understand this shortly when the huge trade surplus that supports the euro collapses in the face of a crisis. Japan learned that lesson by turning the yen into a currency backed by huge dollar savings and increased its legal and investment security to the standards of the US or UK, despite its own monetary madness.

The race to zero of central banks in their monetary madness is not to see who wins, but who loses first. And those that fail are always the ones who play at being the Fed and the US without the US’s economic freedom, legal certainty, and investor security.

The Federal Reserve can be criticized, and rightly so, for its monetary madness, but at least it is the only central bank that truly analyzes the global demand for US dollars. In reality, the Fed QE is not unlimited, it is limited by the real demand for US currency, something that other central banks ignore or prefer to forget. Can the US dollar lose its global reserve position? Sure it can, but never to a country that decides to commit the same monetary follies as the Fed without their analysis of real demand for the currency they manage.

This should be a lesson for all countries. If you fall into the trap of playing reserve currency and endless printing without understanding demand, your US dollar dependence will intensify.

© 2020 Mises Institute. Reprinted by permission.

https://mises.org/wire/why-world-has-dollar-shortage-despite-massive-fed-action

Public pensions are not a drag: Study

Public pension funds generating $179.4 billion more in state and local government revenues than taxpayers put in 2018, according to a biennial study by the National Conference on Public Employee Retirement Systems.

Public pensions’ financial impact rose 30.6% from $137.3 billion in 2016, according to a new study, “Unintended Consequences: How Scaling Back Public Pensions Puts Government Revenues at Risk.” The 2020 edition of the study builds on NCPERS’ 2018 analysis of how investment and spending connected to pension funds affects state and local economies and revenues.

The analysis draws on historical data from public sources including the U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Bureau of Labor Statistics. While pension fund assets are invested globally, the economic impact of these investments can be traced down to individual states based on the NCPERS study methodology.

“If public pensions didn’t exist, policy makers would need to increase taxes on their constituents to sustain the current level of public services,” said Michael Kahn, NCPERS’s research director and the study’s architect. He noted that in 40 states, pensions were net contributors to revenue in 2018, an increase from 38 states in 2016.

The original Unintended Consequences study in 2018 examined how state economies and tax revenues are affected when pension funds invest their assets and retirees spend their pension checks, and how taxpayer contributions compare to revenues, said Hank H. Kim, executive director and counsel of NCPERS.

“Pensions are often cast as a pawn in political dramas over short-term spending,” Kim said in the release. “This study underscores that breaking faith with public pensions is actually a costly strategy for state and local government. In the long-term, diminishing public pensions will backfire.”

NCPERS’s analysis of the data also showed:

The economy grows by $1,372 for each $1,000 of pension fund assets. The size of pension fund assets—$4.3 trillion in 2018—means that the impact of this growth is greatly magnified, the study found. Investment of public pension fund assets and spending of pension checks by retirees in their local communities contributed $1.7 trillion to the U.S. economy.

Economic growth attributable to public pensions generated approximately $341.4 billion in state and local revenues. Adjusting this figure for taxpayer contribution $162 billion yields pensions’ net positive impact of $179.4 billion.

Founded in 1941, the National Conference on Public Employee Retirement Systems (NCPERS) is the largest trade association for public sector pension funds, representing more than 500 funds throughout the United States and Canada with more than $4 trillion in pension assets.

© 2020 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

New index options on Allianz Life indexed variable annuity offer high three-year caps

Allianz Life has issued longer-term index options on its Index Advantage variable indexed annuity, with a 20% downside buffer and cumulative caps on appreciation of as much as 80% over three years.

Investors can choose to link their accounts to the performance of either the large-cap S&P 500 Index or the small-cap Russell 2000 Index. The three-year crediting rate limits are 75% and 80%, respectively, according to a May 4 product rate sheet. The current rates expire June 1, 2020.

On the upside, clients have a one-time opportunity between contract anniversaries to lock in a gain in the value of the contract for the rest of the term. The contract can lose value if the three-year term ends with a cumulative loss of more than 20%.

The product has a 1.25% annual contract fee, a $50 annual maintenance free on contracts worth less than $100,000, and (if applicable) a maximum anniversary value death benefit fee of 20 basis points.

The one-year index option of the Index Advantage has different indexes, crediting rate limits, and buffers or floors, as shown in the chart below.

Source: Allianz Life.

 

© 2020 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

 

The Short and the Long of the Fed Buying Corporate Bonds

By enhancing liquidity and improving functionality in the corporate bond markets, new U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) programs have been good news in the short term. Yet a number of unknowns remain regarding the rollout of these programs, and we foresee potentially challenging impacts for more highly levered companies over the longer term.

The Fed’s Rapid and Aggressive Actions

The Fed has rapidly deployed its tools to improve liquidity and stabilize markets that were rocked by the economic impact of COVID-19.

The Fed’s efforts, announced on March 23, included new programs that allowed the purchase of corporate bonds, aiming to enhance the flow of credit to corporations.

The central bank established two credit facilities. Through the first, the Primary Market Corporate Credit Facility (PMCCF), the Fed can buy new-issue investment-grade bonds with maturities of up to four years. Through the second, the Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility (SMCCF), the Fed can buy secondary-market investment-grade corporate bonds with maturities of up to five years as well as exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that invest in investment-grade corporate bonds.

On April 9, the Fed dramatically increased the size and scope of these facilities. It raised their combined size to $750 billion, and expanded both programs to include recently downgraded corporate issuers that had previously been rated investment grade (a BBB-/Baa3 rating or higher) as of March 22—so-called “fallen angels.” The Fed also said it could buy high-yield ETFs through its SMCCF.

In addition to these programs, the Fed has rolled out many other initiatives to improve market functionality and liquidity, including emergency rate cuts and quantitative easing (QE) programs.

With serious concerns about liquidity and stability in all areas of the fixed-income market, the Fed has taken a more aggressive stance than it did during the Global Financial Crisis, combining QE with other initiatives all at once rather than sequentially.

The Short Term

While the Fed has announced programs geared at purchasing corporate bonds, to date it has not actually made these purchases. Still, its programs have already had a positive effect on corporate credit spreads.

Through April 8, for example, the Fed’s corporate bond programs (the PMCCF and SMCCF) caused investment- grade spreads to tighten by 120 basis points (bps) and high-yield spreads to tighten by 229 bps from their widest levels on March 23 (the day the Fed launched these programs). This is notable because spreads reflect the difference in yield between a Treasury and a corporate bond, where widening is typically perceived as default risk rising.

In addition to leading to spread tightening, the Fed’s announcement led to a surge in new investment-grade bond issuance, led by high-quality credits, in March.

Corporate spreads continued to tighten after the Fed’s April 9 announcement, increasing the size and scope of these facilities and including fallen angels and high-yield ETFs (in the case of the SMCCF).

Even though ETFs only represent approximately 3.5% of the high-yield market, this announcement boosted investor sentiment, driving investors to high-yield bonds. As a result, the high-yield new-issue market reopened after essentially being closed in March.

The Long Term

There are still many unknowns surrounding the Fed’s foray into corporate debt. It remains unclear when the Fed will begin buying corporate bonds, and when it does, at what pace the purchases will take place. Our current expectation is sometime in May. More details will likely be announced in the coming weeks.

These facilities are likely to remain active through September, but the ultimate length of the programs will depend on the path of the recovery, which is a big wild card. We see the recovery likely being staggered, but it is not easily predicted given that a virus-driven, global economic downturn is unprecedented.

We do expect, however, that corporate leverage will rise across the board as companies see their earnings

decrease and sell more debt to raise funds. We expect this to result in more downgrades.

This process has already begun. This year more than $120 billion of investment-grade bonds have been downgraded to high-yield status, and we see the potential for much more as the year progresses. Approximately $300 billion of BBB-rated debt in the investment-grade sector is on watch for downgrades or has a negative outlook set by rating agencies.

We estimate that as much as $200 billion of debt (about 3.7% of the investment-grade market) could be downgraded over the next 12 to 18 months, placing it into the fallen-angel category.

We expect these fallen angels to be heavily concentrated in the energy and manufacturing sectors. But other sectors—including leisure, transportation, and consumer products—also have sizable debt that is on watch for downgrades by rating agencies. Those sectors may be hit as well.

We anticipate seeing downgrades across the full rating spectrum: A-rated credits downgraded to BBB, BBB credits downgraded to BB, BB credits downgraded to B, and so on.

Increased leverage will likely lead to more defaults and bankruptcies, especially for companies that entered this downturn with already-high leverage levels. We expect these bankruptcies to be concentrated among companies with lower-B and CCC ratings as well as companies in cyclical sectors, particularly energy. Oil prices at today’s historically low levels are uneconomical for a high-yield company.

Overall, we don’t expect the Fed’s programs to provide much support for lower-quality credits given the expected fundamental deterioration.

Implications

In sum, the Fed’s aggressive actions have benefited the markets in the short term. Longer term, however, we think there will be downgrades, defaults, and bankruptcies, particularly among companies that came into the downturn with high leverage.

In this environment, we are being more defensive, seeking value in high-quality investment-grade credit. There will be plenty of time to increase risk as we come out of the downturn—but for now, there are simply too many unknowns.

Ruta Ziverte is head of fixed income for William Blair. This article first appeared here

What it means when ETFs deviate from NAVs: Cerulli

Deviations in the market price of fixed-income exchange-traded funds (ETFs) from their net asset values (NAV)—one of the concerns most widely cited by financial advisers—occurred several times in March, according to the latest issue of the Cerulli Edge–U.S. Asset and Wealth Management Edition.

“COVID-19 is putting fixed-income ETFs to the test,” the report said. “The deviations underscore the importance of educating advisors about the distinctions associated with both the ETF and mutual fund vehicles with the goal being advisors’ use of both in concert.”

In late February, as the markets began to react to coronavirus, some of the largest fixed-income ETFs traded with increased bid-ask spreads and, at times, significantly below their NAVs. This deviation may force ETF investors to sell their shares below the reported value of holdings at a time of crisis, making the vehicle appear to be a poorer option than a comparable mutual fund that transacted at the NAV.

While this may suggest that investors in the mutual fund vehicle were better served, Cerulli associate director Daniil Shapiro warned that, “This deviation in NAV should be interpreted with nuance and should impact how both ETFs and mutual funds are positioned to advisors.”

Why did ETFs fall below the NAV in February? At the highest level, ETF trading is supported by market makers and authorized participants who need to ensure that their activities are profitable and will add a margin of safety, resulting in lower ETF prices and investors effectively paying some price for access to liquidity.

Alternately, since NAVs for many fixed-income positions are “marked-to-model,” the share price may need time to catch up to the true value of the underlying holdings—a friction that market makers will try to price in.

“For advisors, the takeaway should be that no vehicle is perfect. Each has unique advantages,” wrote Shapiro in the new report. “If discounts exist in an ETF vehicle offering similar exposure, advisors purchasing a mutual fund as a long-term holding may be overpaying and would be better served in an ETF.

“Investors who do not need intra-day liquidity but may need to sell at a specific date may well be best served by the mutual fund. They may avoid paying some liquidity charge should they have to sell during a tumultuous period.”

© 2020 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.