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The Science (Not Sci-Fi) of Social Security

Millennials believe as much in space aliens as in the long-term viability of Social Security, surveys show. Economists, fortunately, tend to have more faith in the national pension program than in ETs, and some them—economists, that is—spend a lot of time looking for ways to fix it by 2034, when its reserves run dry.

The question is not whether it’s possible to recharge Social Security’s finances within the next 16 years, but how to do it. Some economists believe that if more Americans worked a couple of years longer and claimed benefits later, the system might recover solvency without politically ugly tax hikes or benefit cuts.

If no action is taken, Social Security will be able to pay only 75% of its promised benefits after 2034. To solve that problem today, the government would have to raise payroll taxes (to about 15% from 12.4%), cut benefits across-the-board by 17%, or some combination of the two. It could also generate more revenues by raising the cap on the amount of earned income—currently the first $128,400—on which the payroll is levied.

The overlap of Social Security policy and behavioral finance was the subject of several papers aired at the Retirement Research Consortium’s 20th annual meeting last week. The National Bureau of Economic Research and the Centers for Retirement Research at Boston College and the University of Michigan produced the meeting at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C.

Academic proposals for improving Social Security’s finances tend to be math-heavy and wonkish. But they contain the seeds of potential policy solutions. In a paper he presented at the meeting, John Laitner of the University of Michigan suggested tweaking the arcane calculation of Social Security benefits so that claiming benefits at age 63 would yield significantly more income than claiming at age 62. (In 2013, 48% of women and 42% of men claimed at age 62, according to the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College.

The lure of higher benefits, Laitner’s calculations showed, could motivate Americans to work an average of 1.2 to 1.8 years longer before filing for benefits. That modest increase, he said, could provide enough new revenues from payroll taxes and federal income taxes to offset 20% to 30% of the Social Security shortfall.

Economists in other countries, including Italy and Germany, have also been working on ways to force or nudge people who are near retirement to keep working for a while. For instance, after the 2008 financial crisis, the Italian government abruptly raised the full public pension age for men to age 66 from age 65 and began gradually raising the full pension age for women from age 60 to age 66. Starting in 2021, no workers will be able to receive a full pension before age 67.

This somewhat desperate move was driven by Italy’s flirtation with national bankruptcy, and it backfired, at least in the short run. According to a paper presented at the meeting by Matteo Paradisi of Harvard, delays in the retirement dates of older workers caused employers at small to mid-sized companies to lay off middle-aged workers.

Some of those laid-off workers turned to tax-financed social services, thereby offsetting some of the fiscal benefit of the higher retirement age. “One-half to two thirds of revenues generated by the reform are lost in the short-run due to the behavioral responses of firms and workers,” wrote Paradisi and his co-author, Giulia Bovini of the London School of Economics and the Bank of Italy.

Other interventions can encourage people to retire earlier. A quarter-century ago, through the Pension Reform Act of 1992, Germany began paying bonuses to workers whose expected public pension benefits were depressed because, despite long work histories, their incomes had never been high. The program didn’t apply to people who began contributing to the pension after 1992.

At the conference, researcher Han Ye of the University of Mannheim (Germany) shared the results of her investigation of the effects of that program. She found that, because the bonuses caused women to claim pensions and leave the workforce earlier, the program was a fiscal failure.

According to her study, an offer of 100 euros in additional monthly pension benefits induced women to claim old age pensions about 10 months earlier than before. The subsidy also raised the rate at which women claimed a pension at age 60 by 17%. “In order to raise the lifetime income of the low-income pensions by one euro, 1.3 euros have to be raised by the government, either via taxes or pension contributions,” Ye wrote.

Other research papers presented at the meeting showed:

Fears that the 2010 Affordable Care Act (ACA) would hurt the American economy by reducing the supply of workers are not justified by research data, according to a study by Helen Levy and Tom Buchmueller of the University of Michigan and Sayeh Nikpay of Vanderbilt University.

When the ACA, also known as Obamacare, went into effect in 2014, the media carried many reports that the ability to obtain health insurance outside the workplace would cause many workers to leave benefits-paying jobs. But, after analyzing trends in health insurance coverage and labor market outcomes for Americans ages 50 through 64, the researchers found “no discernible break” in the labor market participation rate in 2014, either in states that expanded their Medicaid programs or in those that did not.

Another team of researchers studied the correlation between the growing use of factory robots and on rising imports from China from 1994 to 2015 on U.S. earnings that are subject to the payroll tax, which generates Social Security program revenues.

Rising use of robotics in manufacturing was correlated with a drop of more than 3% in earnings subject to the payroll tax for Americans in the upper 60% of the income spectrum. Rising imports from China coincided with reductions in the earnings of those in the bottom half of the income spectrum by at least three percent, and reduced the earnings of lowest-earning Americans by as much as 12%.

Matthew Rutledge, Gal Wettstein and Wenliang Hou of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College and Patrick J. Purcell of the Social Security Administration wrote the study.

© 2018 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Inside new target date funds, Lincoln offers risk-adjustment options

Lincoln Financial Group has introduced YourPath portfolios, a series of target date portfolios for employer-sponsored retirement plans that use investments offered by American Funds, American Century Investments, BlackRock and State Street Global Advisors.

The portfolios “will be managed along multiple risk-based paths to support a more personalized investment approach based upon financial circumstances and risk tolerance,” a Lincoln press release said. The three available paths are Conservative, Moderate and Growth.

“When selecting YourPath as the QDIA, the default criteria will be selected by the plan sponsor,” a Lincoln spokesperson told RIJ. “The participant age will default the participants into the correct target date vintage, then the plan sponsor can select the default risk path they find most prudent for their participant population.  The participant individually would have the ability to opt into another risk path after reviewing their appropriate risk tolerance.”

The funds in the YourPath program will be institutionally priced, Lincoln said. The YourPath American Funds Portfolios will range in annual expense ratio from 0.33% to 0.46%, YourPath iShares Portfolios will range in price from 0.12% to 0.15%, and YourPath American Century/State Street Global Advisors will range in price from 0.44% to 0.55%.

“Unlike standard target date funds driven by retirement age, Lincoln Financial’s YourPath portfolios are a more customized solution,” said Ralph Ferraro, senior vice president, head of Product for the company’s Retirement Plan Services business, in the release.

YourPath portfolios will offer an active, passive or hybrid portfolio investment strategy with a stable value asset class to help reduce market volatility. Morningstar Investment Management LLC will provide the glide path, portfolio construction and ongoing management for each of the portfolio strategies, delivering fiduciary support as an investment manager under ERISA 3(38), the release said.

© 2018 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

New 5-year indexed annuity contract from Eagle Life

Eagle Life Insurance Company, a wholly owned subsidiary of American Equity Investment Life Insurance Co., has added a five-year fixed index annuity (FIA) product to its indexed product lineup: Eagle Select Focus 5.

The contract allows clients the ability to take penalty-free withdrawals of either 5% or 10% per year during the five-year surrender charge period, beginning with the start of the second contract year. The 5% withdrawal option requires election of a market value adjustment rider.

Eagle Select Focus 5 also offers flexible premiums that don’t extend the surrender period, a five year surrender charge schedule, terminal illness and nursing care riders included at no cost and transparent crediting methods, said Kirby Wood, Chief Distribution Officer of Eagle Life, in a release.

Eagle Select Focus 5 offers a new allocation option: the “S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Daily Risk Control 5% Excess Return with Participation Rate.” There is no upper limit on the potential rate of return the owner can receive when allocating premium to this index option, but the internal design of the index automatically dampens the owner’s upside potential.

According to an Eagle Life product brochure, this is “a volatility control index that consists of the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index and a cash component accruing interest at three Month LIBOR.

“The Index is dynamically adjusted between the two components to target a 5% level of volatility. The S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index is made up of S&P 500 members that have followed a policy of consistently increasing dividends every year for at least 25 consecutive years. This Index is well diversified across all market sectors.”

© 2018 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

The Economy Gathers Momentum

In the past couple of weeks, we have learned that the economy may be growing more quickly than we had anticipated. That raises the fear that inflation could begin to rise more rapidly which, in turn, could cause the Fed to accelerate its previously ­described path towards higher interest rates.

But, thus far, the inflation rate has remained very much in check, which should keep the Fed on a go­-slow approach towards higher rates.

Second quarter GDP growth came in at a solid 4.1%. But we should not forget that first quarter growth was relatively anemic at 2.2%. Thus, GDP growth in the first half of the year now stands at 3.1%. In the past year GDP growth has averaged 2.8%. So, while growth appears to be gathering some momentum, the economy does not appear to be in danger of overheating. Consistent GDP growth of 4.0% would be a problem; growth of 3.0% is sustainable.

Some economists are quick to point out that the trade gap narrowed significantly in the second quarter as businesses adjusted the timing of their exports and imports in advance of the implementation of tariffs. As a result, trade boosted GDP growth by 1.2% in the second quarter. It will not do that again in subsequent quarters, so they conclude that second quarter growth was an aberration. Their comments about the trade component’s contribution to GDP growth are accurate.

However, business inventories declined $27.9 billion in the second quarter and subtracted 1.0% from GDP growth in that quarter. That, too, will not be repeated later this year. In the third and fourth quarters rebounding inventory levels should boost GDP growth by as much as they subtracted from GDP growth in the second quarter. We have no hard data yet for the third quarter. However, we will take a stab at third quarter GDP growth of 3.1% and something like that in the fourth quarter. If all of that is correct, GDP growth in 2018 will be 3.1% compared to a 2.5% growth rate last year.

The second piece of robust economic news was the employment report for July. While employment climbed by a modest 157,000 in July, upward revisions to May and June mean that in the past three months payroll employment has risen 224,000 per month. That is steamy. Given a steady died of robust gains in employment and an unemployment rate that is currently 3.9% and falling, shouldn’t we worry about escalating wage pressures? Yes. But it does not necessarily follow that upward pressure on wages will translate into a problematical increase in inflation. Here’s why.

This past week we also got the employment cost index, which measures the gains in wages, benefits, and total labor costs. Total employment costs rose 2.4% in the second quarter and they have climbed 2.8% in the past year as both wages and benefits are on the rise. The tightness in the labor market is causing upward pressure on labor costs.

However, as we have noted on numerous occasions, we should be looking at labor costs adjusted for the increase in productivity, which economists call “unit labor costs.” Why? Because higher labor costs can be offset by increased productivity. If an employer pays its workers 3.0% higher wages because they are 3.0% more productive, he or she really does not care. The firm is getting more output. The worker has earned his fatter paycheck. In that case, unit labor costs, or labor costs adjusted for the increase in productivity are unchanged, and there will be absolutely no reason for that employer to raise prices. So, what is happening to unit labor costs currently?

The productivity report points out that compensation has risen 2.5% in the past year, but recent quarters have been around the 3.2% mark.

If compensation in the past four quarters has risen 2.5% and productivity has climbed by 1.3%, then unit labor costs in that same time have risen 1.2%. Remember, the Fed has a 2.0% inflation target. If labor costs after adjustment for productivity are rising 1.2%, there is no way the current degree of tightness in the labor market will push the inflation rate higher.

For what it is worth, we expect compensation to increase 3.5% in 2018 as the tightness in the labor market pushes wage compensation steadily higher. But we also expect productivity to rise 1.3%. This means that labor costs this year should rise just 2.2%. It does not appear that the tightness in the labor market will cause a problem for inflation any time soon.

If all the above is true, the Fed is not going to be concerned about the combination of faster GDP growth and rising wages. It needs to have some reason to think that the inflation rate is going to pick up substantially. We believe that the “core” personal consumption expenditures deflator will rise 2.2% this year compared to the Fed’s target of 2.0%. The Fed will not regard that as a problem.

Having said that, the Fed should maintain the interest rate glide path it has described, which will boost the funds rate to the 3.2% mark by the end of next year and on to 3.4% by mid­-2020.

© 2018 Numbernomics.com.

US sends ‘myRA’ accounts to Retirement Clearinghouse

The Trump administration is about to finish shutting down one of the Obama administration’s key responses to the lack of retirement plans at tiny companies—the myRA program of auto-enrolled Roth IRAs—and is moving any remaining IRAs set up under the plan to a new custodian.

A notice on the Treasury Department’s myRA homepage warned myRA owners who have not yet moved their myRAs to a new custodian that the “open account in your name will be closed in September 2018 and the balance moved to a new Roth IRA in your name at Retirement Clearinghouse, LLC (RCH), a private sector IRA provider located in Charlotte, NC. The previous custodian was Comerica Bank.

Information on the number or combined dollar value of the accounts was not available.

RCH, formerly Rollover Systems, has for several years been seeking regulatory approval for a clearing system that would automatically transfer 401(k) assets from a former employer’s plan to a current employer’s plan whenever a participant changes jobs. Between plans, the assets would be warehoused at RCH. RCH says such a system would support continuity of saving and increase retirement security.

The myRA program grew out of an idea, developed more than a decade ago by David John (now of AARP) and J. Mark Iwry (now at Brookings Institution; a Treasury Department official under Obama), to create a workplace retirement savings program for employees at companies where no 401(k) or other savings program existed.

With no requirements for employers except to accommodate employee contributions through their payroll systems, the program offered employees a chance to begin saving in a Roth IRA. Initial contributions to the accounts had to be invested in U.S. Treasury securities to avoid volatility; when the accounts reached a value of $15,000, they could be transferred to a brokerage IRA at a private fund company and the assets diversified.

Before it was abruptly canceled in 2017, the myRA program was also expected to be used as a transition tool during the roll-out of state-sponsored auto-enrolled Roth IRA programs, such as OregonSaves and the California Secure Choice Retirement Plan. Those program resemble the myRA program, but at state level instead of a national level.

According to the notice:

“If you would prefer to withdraw your myRA account balance or transfer your account balance to another Roth IRA instead of having your account balance moved to RCH, you must act soon. The deadline for completing these actions is August 31, 2018. Because there is lead time needed to complete certain actions, in some cases the deadline for submitting action to myRA is August 17, 2018.

“For two years, there will be no account maintenance fees or fees associated with withdrawals, transfers, or the closure of your RCH account. RCH will also take over customer service responsibilities related to your soon-to-be closed myRA account, such as providing you with applicable tax forms, even if you close your account prior to the transition to RCH.

“Treasury announced the phase-out of the myRA program in July 2017, and stopped accepting new enrollments at that time. In December 2017, the program stopped accepting contributions (deposits). On a recurring basis, myRA account holders have been sent emails and letters to notify them that the program is being phased out and that they have the option to transfer their account balance to a private sector Roth IRA of their choosing.

Closing the remaining accounts and transitioning the balances to RCH will bring the program to an end. After the transition of your funds to a new Roth IRA with RCH, your funds will no longer remain in an investment issued by the Treasury, and Comerica Bank (the current Treasury-designated custodian) will no longer be custodian of your account. The new accounts with RCH will not be myRA accounts.

A Treasury press release from July 2017 set out the reasons for why the myRA program is ending. As noted in that statement, “The U.S. Department of the Treasury today announced that it will begin to wind down the myRA program after a thorough review by Treasury that found it not to be cost effective. This review was undertaken as part of the Administration’s effort to assess existing programs and promote a more effective government.”

Headquartered in Charlotte, NC, Retirement Clearinghouse, LLC (RCH) is a financial services organization that works with Individual Retirement Account holders, retirement plan service providers and investment providers. RCH has two wholly-owned subsidiaries: RCH Securities, LLC, a member of FINRA and RCH Shareholder Services, LLC a registered transfer agent with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

© 2018 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

The Big Turnaround in Retirement Policy

To the extent that the U.S. has a “retirement policy,” its flavor has definitely changed since Nov. 2016. Given the fact that a business-oriented administration has replaced a consumer-oriented administration, this should not be a surprise. It’s interesting to see who is taking the lead in setting policy today.

For one thing, the pro-Wall Street SEC, not the pro-consumer Department of Labor, is setting the standard for advisor ethics. The Obama DOL aimed to apply the protections and restrictions of the closely-regulated pension world to the tax-deferred IRA world. The SEC seems to tolerate rougher play in the advisory world, and seems satisfied with a caveat-emptor standard that will require consumers to watch out for their own best interest.

Regarding conflicts-of-interest in the advisory world, the Obama DOL tried to sharply reduce them (in part by demanding a written pledge of loyalty to clients from advisors selling variable and indexed annuities on commission) while still allowing business to proceed. For the financial industry, those same conflicts-of-interest—symbiotic relationships between product manufacturers and distributors—are the synergies at the very heart of its business models.

Industry opposition to the Obama fiduciary rule eventually led to its demise at the hands of the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals. It remains to be seen what the SEC will do. The public comment period for its vaguely-worded “Regulation Best Interest” proposal just ended.

In the retirement income arena, the action has shifted from the executive branch to the legislative branch. Under Obama, the Treasury Department drove the government’s thinking about financial products for tax-deferred accumulation and distribution.

Mark Iwry at Treasury, for example, initiated the myRA workplace IRA program for savers at companies without 401(k) plans. He also initiated the Qualified Longevity Annuity Contract, now offered by a handful of mutual life insurers. It allows people who buy deferred income annuities with a portion of their tax-deferred savings (up to 25%) to defer required minimum distributions on that portion until income begins or age 85, whichever comes first.

That era is over largely over. The newest and most talked-about retirement ideas are bubbling up from the legislative branch. Utah Republican Sen. Orrin Hatch has proposed the Retirement Enhancement and Security Act (RESA) of 2018 and Massachusetts Democrat Rep. Richard Neal is sponsoring the Retirement Simplification and Enhancement Act.

The Hatch bill would allow retirement plan providers to sponsor 401(k) plans and invite dozens of employers to join. The Neal bill would reduce or even eliminate the legal liabilities that are said to deter many small company employers from sponsoring 401(k) plans. There are several other initiatives in the mix as well.

These efforts appear to reflect a spirit of deregulation in keeping with the new administration’s preferences. The new initiatives would relax some of the regulations of the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 (ERISA) and allow plan providers, including life insurers who are also plan providers, to sponsor and design 401(k) plans. If employers do bear less fiduciary responsibility for plan design in the future, insurers might even pre-build income annuities in 401(k) plans. Employers have been resistant to in-plan annuities because of liability concerns.

The Trump administration styles itself as “populist,” but the Obama approach to retirement was arguably much more populist, if populism and consumerism are at all related. The myRA and the QLAC ideas were aimed at the neediest, with their benefits tailored mainly to the accumulation and distribution challenges of individual lower- and middle-income Americans.

These initiatives offered only mild opportunities for people in the retirement business. By contrast, there’s a lot of excitement in the 401(k) industry about the Hatch and Neal bills. Those bills would make the small plan market more accessible to large service providers. Whether they would result in the availability of 401(k) plans to millions of currently uncovered American workers remains to be seen.

The new legislative proposals are said to have a 50% chance of becoming reality, perhaps as part of the next phase of tax reform. Given the gridlock and dysfunction in Washington, D.C.—a city that grows more opulent even as government decays—it’s equally possible that these potentially transformative initiatives could get kicked down the road.

© 2018 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Mortality “much lower” in annuities with living benefits: Ruark

Adverse selection is evidently no myth where longevity insurance is concerned. Variable and fixed indexed annuities “with living benefit features exhibit much lower mortality than those without,” according Ruark Consulting, the actuarial consulting firm.

Ruark has released its 2018 studies of variable annuity (VA) and fixed indexed annuity (FIA) industry mortality. Highlights include:

  • Aggregate variable annuity mortality has declined 3% since 2015, attributable to a combination of underlying mortality improvement and changes in business mix.
  • Mortality results vary by product features, contract size, and tax status. Most notably, contracts with living benefit features exhibit much lower mortality than those without.
  • Ruark’s proprietary annuity mortality table provides a much better fit to VA and FIA experience than even recent standard industry annuity tables.

The studies are based on experience from twenty-seven companies from 2008 through 2017, and over $1 trillion of current account values.

“We have 60% more data than our last studies, allowing for high credibility even when splitting results by multiple factors of influence,” said Timothy Paris, Ruark’s CEO. “Moreover, we now have a lot more experience after the end of the surrender charge and bonus periods, commonly 7-10 years.

“As a result, these studies provide new and important insights into long-term annuity mortality, which should help issuing companies to refine their product designs, pricing, and risk management for these widely-used retirement savings and income products, particularly with pending changes to regulatory requirements,” he added.

Detailed study results, including company-level analytics and customized behavioral assumption models calibrated to the study data, are available for purchase by participating companies.

Ruark Consulting, LLC, located in Simsbury, CT, establishes industry benchmarks for principles-based insurance data analytics and risk management. It studies longevity, policyholder behavior, product guarantees, and reinsurance. Ruark collaborates with the Goldenson Center for Actuarial Research at the University of Connecticut.

© 2018 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Sri Reddy joins Principal’s Retirement and Income Solutions group

Principal Financial Group has hired Sri Reddy, CFA, as its new senior vice president in Retirement and Income Solutions (RIS), effective September 4, 2018. Reddy will Principal’s annuities, full service payout and Principal Bank businesses. He succeeds Jerry Patterson, who now oversees the Full Service Retirement and Individual Investor businesses for RIS. Reddy will report to Nora Everett, president of RIS.

Reddy was previously the senior vice president and head of Full Service Investments for Prudential Retirement where he was responsible for the investments and retirement income businesses. Reddy also led Prudential Bank & Trust and Prudential Retirement’s registered investment advisor (Global Portfolio Strategies, Inc.).

Previously, he held senior leadership positions with USAA and ING. Reddy is a graduate of Baylor University and the Thunderbird School of Business Management. He also serves as a United States Department of Labor ERISA Advisory Council member.

© 2018 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

‘PEP’ Talk

Advocates of legislative proposals that would allow the creation of so-called PEPs—pooled employer plans—say that these provider-sponsored, multiple employer plans will encourage more small employers to offer 401(k) plans.

PEPs will accomplish that in several ways, they say: Above all, by removing most or even all of the legal liability that reportedly scares so many employers away from sponsoring federally-regulated plans; by reducing their administrative chores; and by reducing the notoriously high costs of offering a micro-size plan to the low costs enjoyed by participants in “jumbo” plans.

But, on that last point: it hasn’t been proven that PEPs would in fact save small company owners and employees a lot, relative to the cost of other available retirement plan options. “Small employers will get the benefits of scale, but joining a PEP won’t cut their costs in half,” Pete Swisher, national sales director at Pentegra Retirement Services and author of 401(k) Fiduciary Governance, told RIJ recently.

“The raw cost of providing a plan isn’t dramatically cheaper in the multiple-employer plan. It might take the cost of setting up a 401(k) from a $6,000 thing and turn it into a $5,500 or a $5,000 thing. But it’s not going to turn it into a $1,000 thing,” Swisher added;

Certain parts of the retirement industry are pushing hard for changes in pension law that would allow providers to sponsor PEPs and invite employers to join. Such arrangements, if widespread, could alter the economics and dynamics of the 401(k) business. Large providers could aggregate the assets of many small plans into pools large enough for them to serve economically. The providers might also offer financial wellness programs to participants in many small plans.

Through wellness programs, they could market emergency spending accounts, health care savings accounts, college savings plans, student debt management services, and perhaps even annuities. At a time when the actual costs of recordkeeping and investment options are falling (to near-zero, in the index fund business), large providers need new markets, a broader array of products, and a chance to capture IRA rollovers when employees leave plans or retire.

“Our strategy is to expand the footprint around the broader issue of financial wellness,” Harry Dalessio, head of Full Service Solutions at Prudential, told RIJ in an interview.

In this sixth installment of our series on MEPs and PEPs, we asked 401(k) experts if multiple employer plans would in fact bring lower costs to small employers and small-plan participants. There was no brief or easy answer. On the one-hand, small employers who currently offer high-cost plans could see lower costs in a pooled plan.

It’s true that many small companies still have high-cost plans with expensive investment options that financial advisors sold them long ago. But streamlined, low-cost, low-maintenance 401(k) plans are readily available to small employers today. And some suggest that the cost of keeping records for a dozen or more different small employers could be more complex and therefore more expensive than keeping records for a single plan.

Raw cost of a plan

“The assumption is that multiple employer plans must be about scale and cost-savings, but that’s not what they have to be about,” Swisher said. “We already have an example of a scaled-cost model with Vanguard. Vanguard went to Ascensus to be its recordkeeper for small plans, and they set up a couple of thousand plans a year. Ascensus offers a discount for that. Ascensus was already inexpensive and it became 5% or 10% less expensive. But that in itself is not transformative.

“If that’s all it was about, you don’t need a MEP for to achieve that. The base cost of that work, not the price but the cost, is $4,000 to $6,000. If you’re a micro-business, you don’t want to write a $4,000 check, or even a $2,000 check. A MEP will help with the effort, and a little bit with the cost,” he told RIJ.

“Everybody seems to think that you can divide that $4,000 by 100 and bring it down to $40. No, you can’t,” he said. “There are practical and legal obstacles. Each employer has to have compliance tests done individually, non-discrimination tests. These are tests that have to be done employer by employer. Each employer will have payroll costs. And there are problems that come with processing the different payrolls.”

MEPs “won’t lend themselves to being the cheapest solution [for employers who want to offer a retirement plan to employees]” he added, because they will be monitored by professional fiduciaries who will make sure that the job is done in the best possible way, not in the cheapest possible way.

Jack Towarnicky, executive director of the Plan Sponsor Council of America, agrees.

“A PEP’s small size and its significant flexibility would not necessarily reduce costs, introduce economies of scale/value add, nor lower fiduciary exposure – given the number of small employers in a PEP plan, the different payroll schedules and frequencies which complicate processing, the ability of each participating employer to select a diverse set of investments from a fund lineup – all coupled with numerous other differences in plan design and administration,” he told RIJ.

A veteran in the PEO plan space (PEO stands for professional employer organization, or employee-leasing company) told RIJ that it’s not necessarily cheap and easy to run a multiple employer plan if the companies in the plan don’t use the same payroll firm.

“We benefit from great efficiency in the PEO space because we get a single payroll feed from dozens or hundreds of companies,” said Justin Young, marketing director at Slavic401k. “But I still have to deal with thousands of individual companies on plan setup, contribution remittance, and processing and payroll issues. Someone will have to crack the code, otherwise recordkeepers will have to charge a lot more to run an open MEP.”

Slavic401k charges its clients a combination of asset-based and per capita fees, he said. It charges $39 per year per participant, plus a tiered asset-based fee that goes down as the adopting employer’s plan grows in assets.

A refuge for the asset-based fee model?

“For recordkeepers, it won’t be easy,” said Eric Droblyen, president and CEO of Employee Fiduciary, a third-party administrator of small 401(k) plans whose business could be threatened by the spread of MEPs.

“You have vesting, reconciliation to a single trust. You could have hundreds of different employers. My company could offer a multiple employer plan, but why would we? You’re not going to buy better investments. If you’re looking at plans priced on an asset basis, then yes, it’s a way to drive down costs. But that’s only if you’re married to the asset-based pricing model. Assets have almost nothing to do with the expenses of a 401(k) provider.”

Droblyen called open MEPs “the last gasp of asset-based pricing.” To him, they may make sense to large asset managers, but only in a world where larger pools of assets translate into larger revenues. He believes the 401(k) world must evolve toward per capita pricing, because it doesn’t place a disproportionate portion of the plan costs on participants with large accounts.

“You might have a 10-participant plan where one employee’s account is worth $10,000 and the company owner’s account is worth $1 million. The recordkeeping is just as difficult for one as the other. But with asset-based pricing, participants with high account balances are getting rolled.”

Others agree. “Honestly, if you’re paying 50 basis points (0.50%) for recordkeeping and you have $1,000 in your plan and your fee is $5 and I have a million in the plan and I pay $5,000, that is not equitable. Sooner than later the industry as a whole will have that epiphany and we’ll make a massive move to per capita pricing,” said Justin Young of Slavic401k.

“Guideline, for instance, charges $8 per participant and that’s charged to employer, it’s an all index lineup, and 8 basis points for the investments,” he added. “We look at that and say that’s extremely aggressive. But if were really in this for the best interest of the participant, that’s the best thing for the participants. But that would be hard pill to swallow [for plan recordkeepers and asset managers].”

Absence of a mandate

Pete Swisher believes that the private 401(k) industry has all the tools needed to bring 401(k) plans to small companies, and doesn’t believe that the federal or state governments need to sponsor umbrella plans, he does believe that a government mandate requiring all but the smallest employers to offer plans to employees might be necessary if the country hopes to reach universal 401(k) coverage.

“If there is a genuine need and the market has failed to meet it, then you have a prima facie case for government intervention,” Swisher said. “We don’t have a market failure so much as an absence of motivation. There are structures today whereby small employers could have plans. What’s missing is the cause for them to get out and do it. “It’s the absence of a mandate that’s the problem, not the absence of a product. The state programs will give a governmental stamp to stuff that’s already out there. I think public options will offer competition, I think people will still want help from advisors… that’s been the industry belief from early… the upshot is that the government will probably capture just a small part of the business. I’m not a doom-and-gloomer. If anything, I’m a take a glass three-quarters-full view.”

James Holland, of MillenniuM Investment and Retirement Advisors in Charlotte, NC, agreed that legislation alone won’t ensure that all American workers have a retirement plan. “The big push behind this is based on the idea is that if we just change the rules, somehow it will fix the problem. That doesn’t address the many employers who are unengaged or apathetic,” he said.

“You can lead people to water, and even give them a cup, but that doesn’t mean they will drink from it. I’m not anti-MEP guy by any stretch of the imagination, but this [legislative] proposal is far from a magical elixir. You can’t legislate this problem away. It as to be solved by the people involved—the plan sponsors, the advisors and the participants.”

© 2018 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

A new concept for defined contribution plans: The Retiree MEP

Many people in the retirement industry are talking about open multiple employer plans these days, and the concept of a “Retiree MEP” was shared at a retirement policy forum called “Modernizing the U.S. Retirement System, which the American Academy of Actuaries (AAA) sponsored at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C. last week.

“The idea builds on the open multiple employer retirement plan (“open MEP”) concept, which many people think has a good chance of passing Congress with next iteration of tax reform,” AAA Senior Pension Fellow Ted Goldman told RIJ in an interview after the event.

In Goldman’s vision of the future, a non-profit organization might sponsor an open MEP and invite companies to transition participant accounts in their existing 401(k) plans to the new plan. Within this MEP would exist a guidance platform–the Retiree MEP–where participants could receive objective information about retirement saving and distribution.

“Instead of putting the employer in the middle of it,” Goldman said, the platform might provide, for instance, an annuity-screening tool to help participants find the best contracts, or a service that would help employees choose an asset management firm or a managed account service.

The platform might also include the capability to help near-retirees decide whether to take a structured withdrawal from their account in retirement, or whether to buy a deferred income annuity (such as Qualified Longevity Annuity Contract). Models for such service platforms already exist at closed multiple employer plans, he said, such as the National Rural Electric Cooperative, Goldman said.

Attendees at the invitation-only forum represented congressional offices, government agencies, nonprofit organizations including the Academy, and academia. In addition to Goldman, speakers and panelists included:

Social Security Administration Chief Actuary Steve Goss, who framed how the current and future benefits provided by Social Security fit in the bigger retirement income picture, and described Social Security’s financial condition.

  • Lori Lucas, president and CEO of the Employee Benefit Research Institute, who moderated the program and facilitated the Q&A periods.
  • Mark Iwry, nonresident senior fellow in Economic Studies at The Brookings Institution; visiting scholar, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania; and former senior advisor to the secretary of the Treasury.
  • Steve Vernon, research scholar at the Stanford Center on Longevity.

Major themes of discussion included:

  • Restoring public confidence in Social Security and Medicare
  • Creating incentives to work longer
  • Providing protections and incentives to employers and service providers
  • Incorporating risk-mitigation strategies into plan designs

A position statement published by the Academy in fall 2017, “Retirement Income Options in Employer-Sponsored Defined Contribution Plans,” illustrates how actuarial principles can potentially be applied for improved lifetime income outcomes in a retirement system that has largely shifted to defined-contribution plans.

The American Academy of Actuaries is a 19,000-member professional association for the U.S. actuarial profession. It assists public policymakers with objective expertise and actuarial advice on risk and financial security issues. The Academy also sets qualification, practice, and professionalism standards for actuaries in the U.S.

More information about the Academy’s work on retirement policy issues can be found at actuary.org under the “Public Policy” tab.

© 2018 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

 

A Brave New Deregulated 401(k) World

Though only a few lobbyists, policy wonks and 401(k) insiders appear to fully recognize it, the defined contribution industry is approaching an historical inflection point.

If Congress passes certain proposed bills, employers could be relieved of most of the legal, administrative and financial burdens of choosing and maintaining 401(k) plans for their employees. Plan service providers and outside fiduciaries would assume roles traditionally belonging to employers.

By allowing many employers to join a single plan, these changes have subtle but powerful implications—with the potential to create new winners, losers and any number of unintended and unforeseeable consequences.

These points were made clear during an hour-long webcast this week sponsored by the LIMRA Secure Retirement Institute. In the webcast, entitled “Closing the Coverage Gap,” Ben Norquist, CEO of Convergent Retirement Plan Solutions, described the likely future of 401(k).

Ben Norquist

“There are three factors that we think are converging and are likely to transform the industry” in the next two to four years and which will help “move the needle” in terms of expanding plan adoption by small employers, Norquist said. These factors are:

  • “A myriad of federal legislation.” The Retirement Enhancement & Savings Act of 2018” (RESA) could “open the floodgate” to new MEPs [multiple employer plans]. MEPs or PEPs [pooled employer plans] would be the vehicle through which control over and responsibility for plan design would move to providers from employers.
  • “Momentum at the state level.” Oregon, Washington, Vermont, California and other states have set up or are in the process of setting up their own workplace plan solutions, such as retirement plan exchanges, mandatory workplace IRAs, and state-supervised multiple employer plans. Norquist described these efforts as both a threat and an opportunity for the private sector plan service providers. They could crowd out the private sector, with employers “dumping traditional plans into state plans,” he said. Or, by mandating a plan in almost every business, the states could be “a catalyst for [private] plan adoption” and offer opportunities for “up-selling” employers on the advantages of private plans over state plans.
  • “The fintech revolution.” New mobile and web-only digital technologies are disrupting all aspects of the financial services industry, Norquist said. Fintech startups threaten to “leapfrog” traditional retirement service providers. But large legacy providers have more knowledge of the market than startups do. Norquist believes that partnerships between fintech startups and established firms could be powerful.

Norquist recommended that existing retirement service providers follow these trends closely. He advised them to evaluate their own strengths and weaknesses; fine-tune their marketing messages; assess their vulnerabilities; build, buy or partner for necessary new capabilities; capitalize on the opportunities that will inevitably arise.

This was a timely webinar. Today, employers are like the general contractors of their retirement plans. They may not run the plans. But legal responsibility for the major decisions about a plan—what the investment options will be, how much employees will pay for the plan, whether there will be an employer match, and whether to have a plan at all—falls on them, even if they aren’t aware of it.

As such, they are the gatekeepers and guardians of their employees’ retirement savings. It’s a sacred trust. But it has also imposed a burden that many small employers aren’t willing or able to bear. Employer-centric plan sponsorship is seen by some as a bottleneck and a barrier to the universal adoption of tax-deferred workplace savings plans.

The new laws would mean that employers could stop sponsoring plans. Instead industry service providers would sponsor plans and employers would decide whether or not to join them. Others see it as a business disruption or even a threat. It amounts to a deregulation of 401(k)s, which scares some and elates others.

Others, especially large recordkeepers, see it as an opportunity. Legislators are backing the changes in the belief that they will help bring workplace savings plans to tens of millions of workers at small companies and avert an impending retirement income crisis in the U.S.

RIJ is following the progress of the legislative proposals. We think you should too.

© 2018 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Ireland establishes guidelines for master trusts

Ireland’s pensions regulator has launched an inquiry into the future regulation of “defined contribution (DC) master trusts” with a view to encouraging consolidation in the sector. Master trusts are similar to the open multiple employer plans that are the subject of legislative proposals in the U.S.

In a document published this week, and reported by IPE.com, the Pensions Authority warned that there were “far too many pension schemes that are delivering poor outcomes for members. The Authority would like to see a smaller number of larger schemes to provide for future saving.”

Ireland’s government is exploring several pensions and welfare reforms, including changes to the state pension, new protections for defined benefit plans and participants, and the introduction of automatic enrollment. The Pensions Authority is seeking public comment on its proposed reforms by 5 October.

The Pensions Authority said it expected the number of DC master trusts operating in Ireland to increase. The regulator just published proposed requirements for master trusts, their backers and their trustees. For instance, each master trust must have a trustee board, the majority of whose members must be independent from the plan, its owner and any service providers.

The board must put forward a “detailed and comprehensive” three-year business plan for the master trust, showing income and expenditure forecasts and demonstrating that the trust “has a reasonable prospect of being viable under all scenarios.”

The trustee board – which should be set up as a “designated activity company” – must be “sufficiently capitalized”, the Pensions Authority said, with access to enough cash for two years of operations without additional injections. The regulator did not specify a figure for this, but said it planned to review each master trust’s financial position annually.

“Given their potential scale and inherent complexity, the Authority will consider master trusts to be in the highest risk category for supervision and specific reporting requirements will be in place,” the regulator stated.

Other proposed requirements for master trusts included written policies on engagement with members and employers, conflicts of interest, transparency of charges, and winding up the trust.

© 2018 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

With HSAs, raising contribution limits will raise contributions: EBRI

In a boon to financial companies that manage the assets in health savings accounts (HSAs) and a boost to employers who hope to reduce the rising burden of providing health insurance to employees, the House of Representatives has significantly raised the limits on employee deferrals into the tax-favored accounts.

The “Increasing Access to Lower Premium Plans and Expanding Health Savings Accounts Act of 2018,” which the U.S. House of Representatives passed last week, would raise the annual limits on contributions to HSAs, according to a release this week by the Employee Benefits Research Institute.

The new legislation would allow HSA contributions to match the out-of-pocket deductibles of the high-deductible health plans that the accounts were implemented to support. It would nearly double statutory limits on annual contributions to HSAs for those with single, employee-only, health coverage (to $6,550 from $3,450) and raise the limits for those with family coverage to $13,300 ($6,400 more than the current $6,900 limit).

Account holders over age 55 can contribute an additional $1,000 regardless of their health coverage level.

To find out if the increases would prompt additional funding into HSAs, EBRI consulted data in its HSA database. It found that only 13% of account owners contributed the maximum in 2016.  HSAs enjoy a triple-tax advantage: tax-deductible employee contributions, tax-deferred growth, and tax-exempt distributions for qualified medical expenses.

Account holders who held their HSAs for a longer period of time tend to contribute more, EBRI found. “The longer someone has had an HSA, the more likely they are to contribute the maximum,” said Paul Fronstin, EBRI’s director of health research.

“Only six percent of the HSAs opened in 2016 received the maximum annual contribution, whereas 30% of the accounts opened a decade earlier, in 2006, did,” he said, concluding that the longer an individual contributes to an HSA, the more they may appreciate the benefits of the accounts.

© 2018 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Ascensus acquires two TPA firms

In a sign of further consolidation in the retirement industry, Ascensus, the plan services provider that administers small-company retirement plans for Vanguard, announced this week that it has agreed to acquire two third-party administration (TPA) firms: Continental Benefits Group, Inc., and 401kPlus. Both firms will be folded into Ascensus’ TPA Solutions division.

Based in Burlington, New Jersey, Continental Benefits specializes in tax-qualified retirement plans—401(k), profit sharing, cash balance, and pension plans—along with non-qualified deferred compensation plans, Ascensus said in a release.

Arlington, TX-based 401k Plus specializes in developing and administering participant-directed 401(k) plans, but also offers cash balance plans, traditional defined benefit plans, profit sharing plans, and money purchase pension plans.

Retirement Asset Advisory, Inc., a registered investment advisor (RIA) co-owned by 401k Plus’ owners, is not a part of the transaction and will continue to be managed separately.

© 2018 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Prudential sells $923 million group annuity to Raytheon

Raytheon will reduce its pension obligations by $923 million by purchasing a group annuity contract from The Prudential Insurance Company of America, a subsidiary of Prudential Financial, Inc.

The agreement transfers the responsibility for paying certain pension benefits to approximately 13,000 U.S. retirees, as well as their beneficiaries, from Raytheon’s previously discontinued operations.

As a result of the transfer, Prudential will be responsible for making continuing payments to the affected retirees and their beneficiaries, in accordance with the group annuity contract.

Prudential Retirement has $427.6 billion in retirement account values as of March 31, 2018.

© 2018 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

A Letter to RIJ from Moshe Milevsky

I enjoyed the article in RIJ (July 26, 2018) on “why” people don’t annuitize, as well as the additional explanations not included by the academics and their Behavioral Finance handbook.

What I found interesting is that most of the reasons—and perhaps even all of them—can be placed squarely in the neoclassical (rational) economic framework developed almost 50 years ago.

In fact, if you read the original papers that first advocated full annuitization, they all made explicit assumptions on “preferences” and “frictions.” They all made it very clear that in the real world it would be violated. It’s a toy model.

To me this is no different than the (famous) Modigliani-Miller theorems about the irrelevance of capital structure or of dividend policy. Nobody in his or her right mind would advocate that companies ignore either of these decisions, or that both financial decisions don’t matter.

Likely you have not heard of the “corporate finance puzzle” about why some companies are both borrowing and/or paying dividends. Rather, the M-M theorem is a baseline for discussion about what matters most in the real world and who should finance with debt or who should pay higher dividends, etc.

The same holds with annuities. The focus of the discussion should be on:

  • Who would benefit from more annuities
  • How much they should own
  • What types should be purchased
  • How to explain this to people

This is especially important for the academic research agenda. Stop looking for puzzles to solve and start offering normative advice. That’s what the industry needs.

© 2018 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Sneak Preview of New Book on Behavioral Finance

I’ve spent the past third of my life observing annuities, as an annuity marketer at Vanguard, as author of Annuities for Dummies, as editor of RIJ, and as a fly-on-the-wall at dozens of annuity conferences. Over that time, I’ve developed a few personal theories about why it’s so tough to sell annuities, especially income annuities.

Here are three reasons I think annuities aren’t more popular:

Few people spend two hundred big ones all at once, on anything. Most people value liquidity highly, and the purchase of an annuity means a cliff-like loss of liquidity. No one I know pays for insurance of any kind with a lump sum; their spouses would veto the transaction. The most sensible way to buy a retirement annuity is the way you buy your Social Security benefit from Uncle Sam: With a little bit of every paycheck, over a lifetime.

“Deadstick” landings are unpopular. When an airplane loses all propulsive power and the pilot has to emergency-land onto an airstrip or highway or cornfield (or the icy Hudson River, famously) with no way to regain altitude, that’s a deadstick landing. No matter how old, many people still hope to get rich someday. And they reduce their chances if they annuitize too much of their money. They feel less powerful.

Jack Bogle is not an avid fan. Vanguard has always preached that if you stay the course (keep expenses low, don’t try to market-time, and always have a few losers in your portfolio), then reversion to the mean and the equity premium will see you safely through and you won’t need to insure your investments. If St. Jack were a cheerleader for annuities, sales would be higher.

If you’re wondering if any of my hypotheses were ever tested in double-blind studies or published in peer-reviewed journals, they weren’t. And none of them shows up in the forthcoming First Handbook of Behavioral Finance (Elsevier), edited by Douglas Bernheim, Stefano DellaVigna and David Laibson.

In the just-published draft (NBER Working Paper 24854) of a chapter in the book called “Behavioral Household Finance,” authors James Choi of Yale and John Beshears, David Laibson and Brigitte Madrian of Harvard, review the best available research on the causes of the annuity puzzle. Here are the factors they collected and shared:

‘Actuarially unfair’ annuity prices. Several studies suggest that life-only income annuities don’t offer good value. According to one estimate, the average annuity owner only gets back between 75 and 85 cents for every dollar of purchase premium, with insurance company costs eating up the difference. To me this means: most people don’t expect to live long enough to be “in the money” on their contract.

A high fraction of household wealth is already annuitized in the form of future benefits from Social Security and private pensions. This seems intuitively right. For many people, the present value of their Social Security benefit can make up more than half of their net worth. On the other hand, the fact that most people minimize their benefits by claiming ASAP makes me wonder if they understand that Social Security is an annuity.

A bequest motive plus the opportunity to invest in equities can suppress annuity demand. It makes sense, as the authors observe, that people who are primarily thinking of their children’s inheritances would prefer individual stocks over annuities, especially where the investments aren’t held in qualified accounts. On the other hand, research shows that the bequest motive is fairly weak.

Married couples have built-in partial longevity insurance. On the principle that one can often live cheaper than two, or that a surviving spouse needs less income than an elderly couple, the book suggests that “when one member dies earlier than expected, there are more resources available to help meet financial needs if the other member lives longer than expected.” This explanation seems less than intuitive, although it makes sense that the high cost of many joint-and-survivor annuities, relative to single-life annuities, might hurt their appeal to couples.

Annuities are not popular in bull markets. “Annuity take-up is negatively correlated with recent stock market returns. Households appear to extrapolate when forming beliefs about future stock returns and therefore prefer lump sums that can be invested in equities when recent returns have been high,” the book says. Conservative investments don’t hold much attraction when the world seems to be ignoring risk. A smart near-retiree, you might hope, would sell inflated equities to lock in safe lifetime income. But most people don’t think that way.

Uncertainty regarding future health care needs. “Households may refrain from purchasing annuities and instead use accumulated wealth to self-insure against the risk of health shocks,” the book says. This sentiment could be especially strongest among people who dread the prospect of needing Medicaid-funded long-term care. At the same time, anyone with a health problem that reduces longevity expectations would obviously lose interest in life annuities, unless a discounted or “impaired risk” annuity were available.

Institutional factors don’t make it easy for plan participants to buy annuities. Since 401(k) plans generally do not include education that emphasizes the importance of turning savings into retirement income, most people don’t arrive at retirement with an understanding of or appreciation for annuities–or a well-marked path toward the purchase of one. “Few defined contribution retirement savings plans provide annuities as an option in the investment menu, and small frictions in the process of purchasing an annuity may decrease annuity take-up substantially,” the book says.

Not everyone is smart enough to make a sensible annuity choice. Is it dumber to buy an annuity or not to buy an annuity? It seems to depend on the situation. On the one hand, it takes a certain amount of financial sophistication to understand and appreciate the value of an annuity. Also, smart people tend to be wealthier, and wealthier people tend to live longer, so smart wealthy people, you might think, would value longevity insurance. On the other hand, people who are financially sophisticated are often confident enough in their investing ability not to feel the need for such a conservative financial instrument.

There you have them: Eleven answers to the annuity puzzle. Eight of them are deemed worth mentioning in an authoritative new textbook. Three of them come from my gut. Sellers of annuities should feel forewarned, if not forearmed.

© 2018 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Mind the Coverage Gap

Would “open multiple employer plans” (MEPs) or “pooled employer plans” (PEPs) encourage thousands of small employers to offer their workers a retirement plan for the first time?

Or would these umbrella 401(k) plans, which plan recordkeepers, payroll companies and outsourced fiduciaries create and invite employers to join, mainly recruit and enroll employers that already offer plans?

More to the point: Would these relatively new types of plans significantly shrink America’s coverage gap—the fact that about half of full-time private-sector US workers lack a tax-deferred savings plan at work—or would they just rearrange and “cannibalize” existing market share?

In lobbying Congress to remove the legal barriers to MEPs and PEPs, major retirement firms and their advocacy groups have insisted that these plans will reduce the coverage gap. That argument didn’t sway the Obama administration, which preferred public remedies for the gap, such as a nationwide system of auto-enrolled IRAs called MyRAs or state-sponsored programs.

But the Trump administration appears receptive to an industry-led solution to the under-coverage problem. It axed the MyRA plan, and a top Labor Department appointee is the former Republican Senate aide who in 2016 wrote one of the pending proposals that could enable more open MEPs and PEPs. It remains to be seen if any of those proposals will become law.

For this installment of RIJ’s series on provider-sponsored 401(k) plans, we talked to several people with strong opinions regarding the questions posed above. The answers suggest that there probably will be some cannibalization and some growth in coverage. An industry-led solution is likely to close the coverage gap where it makes business sense to do so, but not necessarily in the areas of greatest need.

‘No consensus’

Troy Tisue, the CEO of TAG Resources, Inc. of Knoxville, Tenn., which provides outsourced fiduciary services to clusters of small plans, is well-positioned to comment on MEPs. He claims to have started the open MEP movement in 2002, after an IRS ruling confirmed the tax-favored status of certain umbrella 401(k) plans.

Often partnering with Transamerica as plan recordkeeper, TAG Resources began setting up such plans. His business model attracted imitators, and the field slowly grew. In 2012, after the Department of Labor declared that companies in an umbrella plan must have some “nexus” or commonality, he and Transamerica tweaked their model so that each employer in the plan filed its own Form 5500, a dreaded piece of essential red tape.

Asked about the issue of cannibalization versus coverage expansion, Tisue told RIJ, “40% of the plans we write are dead start-ups.” That is, about 60% of the employers he recruits already have plans. New employers join a Transamerica/TAG umbrella plan either because it lets them start up a plan for less or because they want to transfer most of the risk of being sued (for making a mistake in choosing investments or handling participant money) to an outside fiduciary.

“Everyone has an innate fear of doing something wrong. That’s why the employer wants delegation [of the plan watchdog or ‘fiduciary’ role],” Tisue told RIJ. Asked if he had ever detected pent-up demand for 401(k) plans among the employers or employees at small companies that don’t currently offer plans, Tisue couldn’t say.

A 2012 Government Accountability study showed no clear evidence that MEPs would shrink the coverage gap. “Overall, no consensus existed among MEP representatives and pension experts on whether or not MEPs such as PEO MEPs or open MEPs would substantially expand pension coverage,” the GAO report said.

“Several MEP representatives thought that MEPs had the potential to expand coverage, especially among small to mid-size employers that could benefit from the potential administrative and cost advantages. However, a couple of pension experts were skeptical that open MEPs would have much of an impact in expanding retirement plan coverage. For example, one pension expert said employee demand, rather than cost benefits offered by MEPs, drives whether or not a business sponsors a plan.

“While a couple of the MEPs we spoke with had offerings for employers to start new plans through the MEP, several targeted businesses with existing plans. For example, an open MEP representative said their adopting employers usually have over 100 employees or plan assets of $2 million to $5 million,” the report said.

“We, like GAO, found that open MEPs are not coverage solvers, but rather an attempt to offer a product with fewer restrictions,” former chief of the DOL’s Employee Benefit Security Administration (EBSA) Phyllis Borzi told RIJ. “It was a deregulation thing, because employers who had established 401(k)s would now be out from under their fiduciary burden.

“The industry would be cannibalizing its existing 401(k) business, so there would be no overall increase in coverage. So the Obama administration was not supportive it. We did talked about a version of open MEPs in the budget, but these could only be used or marketed however to employers who hadn’t had a plan for three to five years.”

Industry voices

Industry views are softer. “On the question of cannibalization, it’s not a matter of ‘either/or,’” said State Street Global Advisors’ managing director for public policy, Melissa Kahn, in an interview. “There might be some cannibalization. But for most part [open MEPs] will bring more people into the system. In Oregon, for example, they have a coverage mandate, and a lot of employers are voluntarily enrolling in plans even before they are forced to.”

Lori Lucas, president and CEO of the Employee Benefits Research Institute (EBRI) told RIJ, “We often hear that the burdens of offering retirement plans outweigh the merits. [Plan sponsors] cite the 401(k) litigation and lawsuits. They would eagerly move away from [direct plan sponsorship] if the system facilitated it. They would look at a widely accessible open MEP system as a way out of the traditional system. That would be a completely different dynamic. It would begin to cannibalize the industry.”

Jack Towarnicky, executive director of the Plan Sponsors Council of America and who sponsored a MEP among affiliated companies for 25 years, does not predict that open MEPs or PEPs will be the answer to the coverage gap.

“A PEP does enable small employers to band together, to qualify as a single plan, and to achieve a modest reduction in costs through simplified annual reporting and audit relief,” he told RIJ in an email. “Those savings may be substantial for small employers who have already adopted a plan.”

He added, in contradiction of some claims that PEPs will reduce plan costs significantly, that PEPs “may not change the cost calculation for those employers who have not adopted a plan. I am not aware of any predictions that a significant percentage of small employers who do not currently offer a plan will now adopt a PEP.”

Sharp sticks, plump carrots

Government statistics, albeit dated, showing that the larger the firm, the more likely it already offers a plan today. In 2009, only 31% of the half-million firms with 26 to 100 employees offered plans and 26% of the 725,000 firms with 12 to 25 employees offered plans. That’s where the opportunity for MEPs might be concentrated. The millions of firms smaller than that would be too insignificant for private firms to spend marketing dollars on. To the extent that they employ low-income workers, however, they become a concern of public policymakers.

No matter how cheap and easy providers make it to offer a plan, employers currently without plans wouldn’t necessarily jump into a pooled plan. Low-cost, low-friction ways to offer 401k plans or SIMPLE IRAs already exist for employers who are altruistically inclined to do so, or who want the tax breaks that go with offering plans, or who feel pressure from employees. States like California and Oregon are proceeding with state-sponsored plans on the assumption that it will take a mandate or at least a nudge to achieve universal 401(k) or IRA coverage within their borders.

“I like the idea of state- or large city-sponsored open MEPs, because you have experts, acting in the public trust, making critical decisions about plan design,” said Nari Rhee, director of the Retirement Security Program at the University of California–Berkeley. “They also command some market power to drive down fees on behalf of participants, and they’re more likely to reach scale. So far, the one in Massachusetts for nonprofits seems to be decent.”

“It’s no accident that most countries have gone to a mandatory DC system,” Borzi told RIJ. “You can’t have sharp enough sticks or plump enough carrots to get to the goal of universal coverage. But in the U.S. we’re not close to a mandatory system.”

© 2018 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.