While the Federal Reserve’s recent shift in monetary policy and the inverted yield curve have stoked doubts about the U.S. economy’s strength, key macroeconomic indicators have improved recently, TrimTabs Investment Research said this week.
“Our indicators are not pointing to a recession anytime soon,” said TrimTabs director of liquidity research David Santschi. “The Fed’s policy shift had far more to do with action in the financial markets than with any change in the economy.”
The TrimTabs Macroeconomic Index, a proprietary index of leading macroeconomic indicators, climbed to a two-month high last week and is just 0.1% below its record high in September 2018.
Real wage and salary growth is also picking up, the firm said this week. Based on real-time income and employment tax withholdings to the U.S. Treasury, real wage and salary growth accelerated to 5.0% year-over-year in the past four weeks, up from 2.7% year-over-year in February. The pickup is too strong to be due to seasonal factors alone.
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