Interest rates
'While aggregated industry bond portfolio yields have consistently declined to 4.71% in 2015 from 4.88% in 2014 and 4.99% in 2013, strategic investment decisions have helped mitigate further declines...
No reason to raise rates now, writes heterodox economist
In the paper, 'Normalizing the Fed Funds Rate: The Fed’s Unjustified Rationale,' economist Flavia Dantas of SUNY-Cortland, claims that the U.S. job market is much softer than the official...
Trump and the Trajectory of Interest Rates
'There could be pressure for rates to go higher as investors digest the deficit spending pushed by Mr. Trump,' said Andrew McCormick, head of T. Rowe Price’s U.S. taxable...
Was that a zig (or a zag) on interest rate policy?
“I know market participants really want to know exactly what’s going to happen,” Fed chair Janet Yellen said in a speech in Philadelphia this week. “There is, as I...
The Fed’s Risky New Mandate
With the Fed deciding, yet again, to hold rates, their dilemma will only intensify this year: normalize monetary policy in line with domestic fundamentals, or cede to the pressures...
Half-a-point rise in benchmark rates now expected in 2016
“I consider it appropriate for the committee to proceed cautiously in adjusting policy,” Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen said at the Economic Club of New York this week.
Job anemia puts interest rate hikes into doubt: TrimTabs
“The labor market is not nearly as robust as the conventional wisdom believes,” said David Santschi, chief executive officer of TrimTabs.
Fed to roll over Treasuries as they mature
'Market participants desire certainty, but in the uncertain world in which we live, that desire is not consistent with the policy that would best achieve our objectives,' said William...
Fed hike will have “no immediate impact” on insurers: A.M. Best
'Overall, a continued measured rise in rates is a net positive for the life/annuity industry as product spreads improve, investment portfolio yields increase, and other side benefits accrue to...
Fed raises target overnight rate by quarter-percent
'Were the FOMC to delay the start of policy normalization for too long, we would likely end up having to tighten policy relatively abruptly at some point,' Janet Yellen...
Waiting on the Fed
'The long end of the curve will stay stable but the front end of the curve will go up, so that we’ll have eventually have 2.5% at the short...
October rally shows markets’ addiction to low rates: OFR
“The market-implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2015 is now down to approximately 25% to 35%," according to the Office of Financial Research. The estimate came...
What happens when ‘the Fed yields’?
'We would prefer to see the Fed depart from its zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) sooner rather than later,' say analysts at BlackRock Investment Institute.
America’s Risky Recovery
'My own best guess is that will start to raise rates in September, and that the federal funds rate will reach 3% by some point in 2017,'...
Seniors Weren’t ‘Thrown Under Bus’
In this excerpt from the former Fed chairman's first blog post at the Brookings Institution website, he defends himself against the charge that his low interest rate policy has...
A 100-150 bps rise in rates would help life insurers: Fitch
Conversely, if interest rates decline to levels seen in 2012 and stay there much beyond 2015, Fitch would likely change the outlook for life insurers to negative, the ratings...
The Fed Trap
The Fed's assumption that the so-called “wealth effect”—when asset appreciation spurs real economic activity—will hasten a true post-crisis recovery isn't producing the desired results, writes the former Morgan Stanley...
CBO predicts 3.8% fed funds rate by 2019
CBO projects that the federal funds rate will remain near zero until the second half of 2015 and then “rise considerably.”
Cerulli explains strange bond weather
Life insurers, holders of $2.6 trillion in long-term bonds, added about $52 billion in high-quality bonds to general account investment portfolios last year, Cerulli reported.
The Interest Rate Enigma
"The accumulation of debt and the distortions in production and investment patterns induced by persistently low interest rates hinder the return of those rates to more normal levels," write...