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AARP points out income-related variations in Medicare premiums

High earners may get a bigger share of the federal government’s tax expenditure on retirement savings incentives, but they also pay more for Medicare. The variations in Medicare premiums were documented recently in a Fact Sheet issued by the AARP Public Policy Institute.

Individuals on Medicare with incomes over $85,000 (and couples earning over $170,000) pay higher Medicare Part B and Part D premiums than those earning less, according to the Fact Sheet. Premiums vary according to income.

The standard Part B premium is $1,258.80 a year ($104.90 a month) and covers about 25% percent of Medicare Part B program costs. Those with higher incomes pay between $1,762.80 and $4,028.40 a year ($146.90 to $335.70 a month). Income-related premiums are calculated to cover at least 35% and as much as 80% of program costs.

Similarly, higher-income individuals pay higher Part D premiums, which increase at higher levels of income. They pay $145.20 to $831.60 ($12.10 to $69.30 a month) more per year in Part D premiums than the general population.

AARP cited “Medicare 2013 and 2014 Costs at a Glance” as its source. The data is available from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services at http://www.medicare.gov/your-medicare-costs/costs-at-a- glance/costs-at-glance.html.

In 2013, only five percent (2.4 million) of people with Medicare Part B paid the higher income-related Part B premium, and four percent (1.5 million) of those with Medicare Part D paid the higher income- related Part D premium.

These proportions are expected to increase over the next few years, because the income thresholds for higher premiums are fixed at current levels through 2019, AARP said. By then, about 9.6% (5.4 million) of Medicare Part B enrollees will pay the higher income-related Part B premiums, and 9% (4 million) of Part D enrollees will pay the higher income-related Part D premiums.

Higher-income workers pay more in Medicare payroll taxes. Currently, individuals earning over $200,000 a year, or couples earning over $250,000 a year, pay an additional 0.9% payroll tax on their wages over the threshold amount.

For example, a person earning $250,000 will pay $7,250 in Medicare payroll tax, plus an additional $450 for earnings over the $200,000 threshold. This additional 0.9% tax is credited to the Medicare trust fund.

© 2014 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

RetirePreneur: Laura Varas

What do you do? Hearts & Wallets is a syndicated research firm that produces four types of research for the retirement industry: market sizing, qualitative investor insights, a quantitative investor behavior database, and competitive strategies and best practices. We also do an annual Inside Retirement Advice competitive landscape where we review and assess up to 30 different advice experiences.

Varas RetirePreneur box

Why do clients hire you? We’re the only ones who integrate all four areas of research. For example, we’re tracking trends in what we call “up-shifting” and “down-shifting.” Up-shifters want more service and advice and are willing to pay for it. Down-shifters favor low cost and want to do as much as possible on their own. We think the investment industry will be more like buying a car as we go forward. The options for advice, and what to expect from them, will be clearer. We can already see the variations, from Mercedes and Hondas to Kias and even Flintstone cars.  

Where did you come from? I was a professional musician as a child. That’s where my entrepreneurship comes from. My father is a composer and teacher, and my mother was an organist. Growing up, I thought everyone worked weekends and nights, wearing black and playing concerts. In the 1970s, I was the only kid in Boston who could sing avant-garde 20th century music, so I performed a lot with New England Conservatory faculty recitals, Opera Company of Boston and the Boston Symphony Orchestra.

I went to Yale and majored in economics. I spent four years on the sailing team at Yale. It’s a year-round sport and, like music, it involved working obsessively on your own technique while trying to figure out how you fit into the big picture with your collaborators, competitors and environment. Then I travelled a lot. I was in Berlin when the Wall came down. My early jobs were in the strategy practice at Mercer Management Consulting, at Grey Advertising and at Colgate Palmolive. After business school, I worked at Citibank, then Fidelity. Then I met my business partner, Chris Brown. I went on my own in 2004. Since then I’ve been doing market research and I love it.  

How do you get paid? We are paid by subscription by clients. Most subscribe to all the work available, but we do license individual reports to companies that want specific research.

How do you feel about annuities? Annuities are fundamental. They’re right up there with the aqueduct in terms of providing security for people. At the same time, it’s sad that past sales and pricing practices have left a cloud of negativity surrounding them. There needs to be a total breakthrough in transparency about how they work. I would definitely participate in a longevity annuity and would probably devote a portion of my retirement savings to an income annuity. But first I’d want to see how each part fits into the whole.   

What is your retirement philosophy? To me, retirement is the most interesting area of finance because it’s about how we live our lives. As an industry, we should try to set up a framework that gives people the freedom to plan, and then give them guidelines that make it safe for them. One of our mistakes has been to set the bar too high. Not everyone needs an 80% income replacement rate for 30 years of leisure. I mean, really. Can you think of an era in the course of human history when that’s been a reasonable expectation?

© 2014 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.   

Our 401(k) System, in Black and White

Are 401(k) plan sponsors becoming more or less generous to participants as time goes by?

Anybody who read Bloomberg’s February 20 expose would have gotten the impression that “stingy” sponsors have been sapping “hundreds of thousands of dollars” from employees’ nest eggs.

Some of the largest sponsors, wrote Bloomberg’s Carol Hymowitz and Margaret Collins, are saving money by delaying annual matches until after the end of the year, thus denying a year’s worth of match to any employee who left service before December 31.

But a report from research firm Strategic Insight, issued this week, gave a much rosier impression. “Plan design features that saw aggregate improvements [between 2009 and 2013] include employer matching contributions, formulas, schedules and vesting,” according to an analysis by Bridget Bearden, head of defined contribution retirement research at SI.

The contrast in the two stories is not surprising, given the sharp polarization in viewpoints of the defined contribution industry. Those with great plans (or who advocate for the industry) regard the 401(k) glass as at least half-full. Those with no plan (or who advocate for the roughly half of full-time workers who can’t save at work) regard it as half-empty.

At first glance, the Bloomberg/Strategic Insight discrepancy seemed remarkable, because both parties appeared to be drawing opposite conclusions from the same data. I asked Bearden how that could be. She said Bloomberg used a tiny sample size and SI used a much bigger one.

“The biggest difference between the reports is the sample size and framing of the data,” she replied in an email. “Our analysis is based on several years of survey work by our affiliate Plansponsor magazine. In each of the past several years for which we analyzed the data, more than 5,000 plan sponsors participated.

“For example, Bloomberg found 57 large companies that posted information about their matches on their ‘5500’ forms. [A disclosure required by the Department of Labor.] The charts highlight that of those 57, only 17 (30%) matched annually. The part that 70% (the majority) match in increments other than annual is missed. Other percentages posted also reflect minorities in terms of both the sample size and the overall population of plan sponsors,” Bearden wrote.

In other words, they didn’t draw from exactly the same data.

The two stories could not have been more different in the portrait they painted of plan sponsors. The Bloomberg story charged that 23% of the companies that reinstated their matches after the financial crisis cut contributions. And it named names of companies that had switched to once-a-year contributions. Blue-chip companies like AOL, JP Morgan Chase, Oracle and IBM—17 in all—were put through a virtual perp walk across the Bloomberg/BusinessWeek website.

The reporters also compared the reality to an ideal. Bloomberg/Businessweek.com’s infographic showed the difference in accumulations in a defined contribution account over a 40-year span between an account with a 3% match and a 6% match. The assumed average growth rate was 6%. The accumulations were $624,062 and $812,636, for a difference of about $188,500. 

The SI report, by contrast, took a more Panglossian view. It boasted that the “percentage of employers matching 50%-99% of the first 6% rose to 58% in 2013 from 52% in 2009, while the percentage of employers saying that their match was less than 50% of the first 6% fell to 22% in 2013 from 31% in 2009.”

Over 80% of plan sponsors match contributions within three months, SI said. Seventy-seven percent of sponsors in 2013 said the match frequency was “each pay period.” The percentage of plan sponsors that match annually declined from 15% in 2012 to just 14% in 2013.

In the 401(k) debate, as in most debates, anyone can cherry-pick the examples or create glossy averages and paint any picture they want. When there are hundreds of thousands of plans, you can connect the dots in an infinite number of ways. I’d guess that the situation isn’t as dismal as Bloomberg imagines or as reassuring as Strategic Insights suggests.   

Life, after all, isn’t fair. Millions of us compete for a finite number of positions at profitable companies with excellent medical and retirement benefits. Some of us are fortunate enough to work for such companies our whole lives. Others are fortunate enough to work for such companies for part of our careers. Many aren’t fortunate at all. But the expectation of parity in 401(k) plans is a straw man argument. (Also, the 401(k) match is just one piece of the compensation picture at a company.)

Full disclosure: I’ve had good and bad experiences with the 401(k). One of my employers patently underpaid everyone by 10% but, in an addition to a match and profit sharing, it volunteered an extra 10% of salary to the each person’s 401(k) account every year. I wish everyone had a plan like that. But I also worked for a much less profitable company where, on the day of my separation, I instantly lost about $7,000 in unvested 401(k) matches because I hadn’t completed the minimum three years.

We live in an opportunistic society. We sit side by side on airliners but pay different fares. Even if we send our kids to the same college, my tuition bill might be $45,000 and yours $10,000. Or maybe even zero. We accept or regret these discrepancies, as the case may be.

The 401(k) issue is slightly different. The federal tax break for long-term saving is supposedly available to all. But its benefits don’t accrue to all, and it rewards those in higher tax brackets disproportionately. To some people, that seems regressive and unfair. The Bloomberg article may have stretched to make a point, but the concern is valid.

© 2014 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.   

FIAs Come In From the Cold–Sort Of

As fixed indexed annuity (FIAs) sales have risen over the past decade—to a record $11.9 billion in the fourth quarter of 2013, according to LIMRA—the product has gained some respect from those in the securities industry who once disdained it.

Solid numbers are hard to come by, and the complexities of annuity sales distribution make it difficult to generalize. But, increasingly, more registered reps with insurance licenses are selling FIAs, a product that insurance agents used to regard as largely their own.

In short, distribution of this structured product—basically a fixed-rate annuity with a fraction of its assets used to buy call options on the S&P500 or another equity index—is broadening. It has spread from the agents to the banks to the independent broker-dealer reps (though not to the wirehouses). Even the most conservative broker-dealers are holding internal meetings about approving certain FIAs..

But the data is fuzzy. Advisers may wear both insurance and securities hats, and some can choose to send an FIA purchase through their broker-dealer or through an insurance wholesaler. “The percentage of FIA sales that is going through broker-dealers is elusive,” FIA expert Sheryl Moore, CEO of Wink, told RIJ. “None of the sales tracking groups have been able to track that data. We have done surveys, and about 55% of the insurance agents who respond also identify themselves as registered reps.”

“My own experience, and I think it’s representative, is that a third to a half of FIAs are sold by registered reps,” said Paul McGillivray, who leads CreativeOne’s FIA wholesaling efforts and broker-dealer relationships in Kansas City, Mo. “That number doesn’t show up because the sales go through IMOs (insurance marketing organizations), and we count that as [insurance] agent distribution.”

To be sure, the FIAs that are sold by insurance agents through FMOs aren’t necessarily the same products that are sold by registered reps through broker/dealers. Manufacturers tend to build more conservative products for the broker-dealer channel. Nor are they always sold in the same way.

Historically, insurance agents and wholesalers have been accused of exaggerating FIA benefits and, judging by some of the ads on the Internet, some still do. But broker-dealer reps remain under FINRA-pressure to position them as safe fixed income investments with more potential yield than a certificate of deposit.

The obvious reason for the spillover of FIA sales from the pure insurance agent and bank adviser channels to the independent broker/dealer channel is the traction that FIAs have gotten in the marketplace. But that only raises the question, why are FIAs getting traction?

Their success is mainly a function of the low interest rate environment. In times like these, when risk-averse older investors are starved for yield and nervous about the stock market, FIAs have a story that helps melt their resistance to act. Contract owners can’t lose money, and in the event of a bull market, they won’t be entirely left out. Ultra-low rates helped boost FIA sales in the early 2000s, and they’re helping today.

The financial crisis and the Boomer retirement wave have also worked to FIAs’ advantage. VA manufacturing capacity dropped after the crisis, and FIAs have helped fill the vacuum. Overseas insurers divested their U.S. life insurance properties after the crisis, opening the door to acquisitions by private equity firms, which have brought energy and innovation to the FIA market. And, importantly, FIA manufacturers have added lifetime income riders at a time when Boomers are looking for guaranteed income.

In this first of a series of RIJ articles on the evolution of FIAs, you’ll hear from people at  three different broker-dealers who have responded to the rising popularity of FIAs in different ways. These include Scott Stolz, senior vice president at Raymond James Financial, Nicholas Follett, annuity consultant at Commonwealth Financial Network, and an executive (who requested anonymity) at a broker-dealer that doesn’t yet offer FIAs.

‘We’ve stayed away’

For one broker-dealer executive, it’s difficult to imagine the ideal customer for an FIA.

“We have stayed away from FIAs in the past. If an advisor asks us about offering them, we say, ‘We’re looking to see if there’s value for them here, but we’re not comfortable bringing them to market yet,’” said an executive at an unnamed broker/dealer whose registered reps do not sell FIAs.

“There’s been some negativity about them here, partly because of confusion about what they can do. But lately they have a little more clarity,” he added.  The participation rates have gone up to 100% on some products, rather than 80%. They’ve added GLWBs. Those developments have made us think more about them. We just have to make sure we understand them and think about how they could work best for us.”

This particular manager doesn’t see FIAs as no-risk products, because the client faces the risk of a zero return if the equity markets go down. Ipso facto, they’re riskier than a fixed-rate annuity that’s guaranteed to deliver a specific yield. He’s aware that the Achilles heel of “best-of-both-worlds” products is that, under the wrong circumstances, they can flip into “worst-of-both-worlds” products.

For that reason, it’s difficult for him to see where FIAs into the risk-tolerance spectrum that financial advisers use to guide their recommendations. “Our problem is identifying whom this is for,” he said. “When you think about a client’s risk profile, if they are conservative investors, then they can buy a fixed-rate annuity. With the FIA, the challenge is that there’s the potential to get nothing. That’s our biggest issue.”

This broker/dealer is also hesitant to do an about-face on FIAs. “Our advisers haven’t been trained on indexed annuities,” he said, adding that not so long ago the advisers were commiserating with new clients who’d been saddled with FIAs with long surrender periods and disappointing returns.

“That’s the philosophical challenge we have. [If we start selling these,] some of our advisers will say, ‘We’re finally doing this! This is what I’ve wanted for years.’ But others will say, “I can’t believe we’re doing this! I’ve had terrible experiences with these products.’ In reality, everybody wants everything. The challenge is setting expectations.”     

Selectivity reigns at Raymond James

Raymond James sells FIAs, but according to Scott Stolz it is selective about the issuers it represents and the products it offers. The firm has two kinds of advisers, its full-time “wirehouse” advisers and its independent advisers. Of the two, generally speaking, only the independents have embraced FIAs.

“The independents are more insurance-oriented,” Stolz said in an interview. “The experience that most registered reps have had with indexed annuities has been negative. They hear the words indexed annuities and they assume it’s a crappy product. It took us three years to get our wirehouse channel advisers to look at that product.”

But, over the seven years since Stolz first hired an FIA product manager at Raymond James, and started sending advisers through a day-and-a-half FIA training course, the sales force has gradually bought into them and level of FIA sales has, after a slow start, steadily grown.

“We were one of the first broker/dealers to proactively market them,” Stolz said. “The first year of training, everybody left the room saying, ‘Why are they telling us about this product?’ The second year they listened, thinking, ‘I better know how these things work, because other people are pitching them to my clients, and maybe I can sell against them. But it was four years before we saw the needle move.

“We started at zero sales. Then we got to a couple million a month. We sat at $4 million a month for a year, until we began to think $4 million was the limit. Around Year Four—2011—we began to see a significant increase. After the second quarter of last year, we saw an immediate doubling of FIA sales. Now we’re doing $500 million a year. If interest rates start to rise over time, we’ll do $1 billion a year.” That’s not a huge number for Raymond James, which manages $441 billion, but it’s all new business.

“Some of them don’t speak our language,” Stolz told RIJ. “An issue we have is that the FIA industry—particular the companies that have been in indexed annuities for a long time and most independent agents—is that they try to position the FIA as a product that’s halfway between variable and fixed annuities.

“We’ve seen charts where they have overlapping circles where one circle is fixed and the other variable. They always want to stick it in the middle. We blatantly disagree with that. It’s a fixed product and it’s going after the same money as a fixed product. In the long run, the insurance companies say the FIA will average 4.5% a year. But is the client willing to give up a fixed rate in order to get another 1.5% or 2% a year?

“Now, after last year’s equity market, we’re seeing uncapped, monthly-averaging products. These had good returns last year, so now they’re out there saying, ‘You should buy these products because they have almost unlimited upside. You can earn 12% or 15%. But if you say that, you’re creating the wrong expectations,” Stolz told RIJ.

“We’ve had no complaints on a single policy. We make the expectation a 4.5% return, and tell people that in some years they’ll get nothing and in other years they’ll get 6%. With that expectation, it’s hard not to be happy. But if the investor is told that he’s buying an equity alternative, he’s not a happy camper unless he gets 10% or 15%. Don’t talk about this as if it’s a ‘safer’ equity play.”

When an FIA has no cap on the upside, Stolz said, it’s difficult to pretend that equity performance isn’t part of the equation. “One manufacturer showed us a product with two-year point-to-point crediting method, uncapped but with a spread of 2.5%. [The client receives all returns in excess of 2.5%.] We said, ‘Why are you taking that approach?’ They said, ‘This allows the client to capture more of the upside when the market does well.’ But then, how do we explain all this to the adviser without a long discussion about equities? You’ll have to talk about equities.”   

Raymond James sells FIAs manufactured by Genworth, Protective, Pacific Life, Symetra and Great American. It doesn’t sell Security Benefit FIAs because, despite that company’s rich GLWB rider, the issuer, a unit of Guggenheim Partners, doesn’t quite have an A rating from A.M. Best.

Raymond James advisers also try to use the simpler crediting methods. “We lean toward annual point-to-point and the S&P500 Index,” Stolz said. “It’s easy to understand and we don’t have to explain why they got what they got. Fifteen months ago, we had a case where a husband and wife bought FIAs five or six days apart with 1035 exchanges. The adviser put them into a monthly average product, and one got a 9.25% return and the other got 4.5%. Both were happy, but I couldn’t understand how five or six days could make such a big difference. The monthly average [method] is a crapshoot.”

Commonwealth’s in-house annuity experts

Advisers affiliated with Commonwealth Financial Network, which is based in Waltham, Mass., are selling a lot of FIAs. “Even in the past month it’s been ramping up more and more,” said Nicholas Follett, an annuity specialist at the privately-held independent broker-dealer. “We’re absolutely hearing from more advisers who didn’t sell FIAs before. An adviser will say, ‘I’ve been shying away from indexed annuities but I hear they’re getting better. We say, ‘I understand why you have that feeling.’”

Follett is one of the in-house annuity counselors on whom the firm’s 1,487 advisers rely for guidance when trying to pick a suitable annuity—any type of annuity—for a client. “Commonwealth demands that my position serves as an active consultant to the advisors. I’m like a shoe store salesman that makes sure the client gets a perfect fit,” he told RIJ.

A conversation with Follett about FIAs elicits none of the ambivalence toward that product that’s heard at other broker-dealers or from some registered reps. Commonwealth is picky about the FIAs that it approves for its advisers: it has a formal due diligence process, it uses the consultant ­ALIRT to vet FIA manufacturers, and it screens each sale for suitability. But there’s no hint of disdain.

One sign of liberality: Commonwealth advisers can sell Security Benefit’s FIA even though the company has a B++ financial strength rating from A.M. Best (but A- from Standard & Poor’s) that keeps it out of, for instance, Raymond James. “We prefer an A rating. The lowest rated company we sell is Security Benefit. But we felt compelled to put them there because of their living benefit. We need to be competitive,” Follett told RIJ.

“More than any other type of investment products, annuities are ‘horses for courses,’” he added. “You’ve got to pair the right client with the right strategy at the right time. I do a lot of FIA counseling one-on-one with advisors on the phone, walking them through the different crediting methods and cap rates. The simplest method, after the fixed-rate option, is the point-to-point with a cap. It’s easy too explain: ‘You can’t lose money but you can only earn up to a certain point.’”

The same factors that are driving FIA sales elsewhere are driving them at Commonwealth. Fixed-income investors are frustrated with low yields and are looking for alternatives. Retirement income clients and advisers have watched as FIA living benefits “have gotten more robust, while the VA living benefits have been getting weaker,” Follett said.

The interest shown by big-name Wall Street firms in FIAs has only helped the category, Follett added. The presence of Berkshire Hathaway (an investor in Symetra since 2004) and Guggenheim Partners (a 2010 acquiror of Security Benefit), in the FIA business has helped raise advisers’ comfort levels with the product, he said.

“Anecdotally, it’s easier to convince advisers [about FIAs] when you have names like that behind the product, and it makes it easier for the adviser to introduce the products to their clients. They can say, ‘You may not have heard of Symetra, but you’ve heard of Warren Buffett.”

This is the first of an intermittent series of articles about fixed indexed annuities.    

© 2014 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Journal of Retirement Publishes Winter 2014 Issue

The Journal of Retirement has just released its Winter 2014 issue. The journal is published by Institutional Investor Journals, edited by George A. (Sandy) Mackenzie and sponsored by Bank of America Merrill Lynch. It features academic articles on, as the editor puts it, “a broad range of issues in retirement security.”

The latest issue features the following articles:

“Contribution of Pension and Retirement Savings to Retirement Income Security: More Than Meets the Eye,” by Billie Jean Miller and Sylvester J. Schieber.

“Retirement Income for the Wealthy, Middle and Poor,” by Meir Statman.

“The Tontine: An Improvement on the Conventional Annuity?” by Paul Newfield.

“Low Bond Yields and Efficient Retirement Income Portfolios,” by David Blanchett.

“The Role of Annuities in Retirement,” by Steve Vernon.

“Annuities, Credits and Deductions: An Experimental Test of the Relative Strength of Economic Incentives,” by John Scott and Jeffrey Diebold.

“Structured Product–Based Variable Annuities: A New (and Complex) Retirement Savings Vehicle,” by Geng Deng, Tim Dulaney, Tim Husson, and Craig McCann.

“Defined Contribution Plans and Very Large Individual Balances,” by John A. Turner, David D. McCarthy, and Norman P. Stein.

© 2014 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

The Bucket

Prudential debuts interactive retirement income website

Prudential Annuities has launched www.IncomeCertainty.com, a website that gives consumers answers to common questions, helps them share information with their advisers, and alerts them to the risks of retirement. Along the way, it repurposes some of the themes, images and music of Prudential’s Day One and Blue Dot ad campaigns.

Investors can access the site via computer, mobile phone or tablet devices.

The domestic annuity arm of Prudential Financial, which rolled out the site this month, wants to make retirement income planning more accessible to investors. IncomeCertainty.com features quizzes, retirement income calculators and “educational snacks” or infographics related to retirement.

The “Know Your Challenges” tab on the website unveils different retirement risks and ways in which investors can mitigate them. Challenges that are illustrated include the risk of outliving one’s income, market risk and inflation risk.    

The website also enables users to create a virtual binder or folder. It allows investors to save the content they find most relevant and share it with their financial adviser during face-to-face meetings.

Brochures, videos and research are also available on the site. They offer tips on avoiding costly Social Security mistakes, on preparing for rising healthcare costs, and other practical advice.

Woodbine: Are you ready for the Volcker Rule?

A new report that outlines compliance and business requirements for banks under the Volcker Rule has been released by Woodbine Associates. The Volcker Rule requirements are set to go into effect April 1, 2014.

The report, Volcker Rule Readiness Assessment, was written by Sean Owens, director of fixed income research and consulting at Woodbine. It provides guidance in preparing for trading and covered fund investments.

Woodbine reminds clients that, under the rule, banks must meet several new requirements, from establishing comprehensive compliance programs to making improvements in corporate governance. Banks will also be required to implement new reporting metrics, describe compensation policies and enforce modified risk management measures.

Woodbine warns that:

  • Banks that engage in underwriting, market making and hedging must develop and implement a comprehensive business and compliance framework that includes detailed policies and procedures for trading, risk management, internal control and oversight.
  • The complexity of the new regulation will require banks to create multi-functional teams to develop and implement necessary measures. 
  • Qualified external and independent analysis of business practices, policies, procedures, and internal controls is essential to ensure compliance without business disruption.

The full report can be purchased at www.woodbineassociates.com.

NIRS to host retirement conference in D.C. March 4

The National Institute on Retirement Security will host its fifth annual retirement policy conference, “On the Money? A Close Up Look at Americans’ Retirement Prospects,” on Tuesday, March 4, 2014, from 8:00 AM – 2:30 PM at the Washington Court Hotel, 525 New Jersey Avenue, N.W., Washington, D.C.

The event will feature the release of a new report, The Financial Security Scorecard: A State-by-State Analysis of Economic Pressures on Future Retirees. This report ranks the 50 states and the District of Columbia relative to three areas: potential retirement income; major retiree costs such as housing and health care; and labor market conditions.

Conference speakers include:

  • Ray Boshara, Assistant Vice President, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank
  • Jack Ehnes, CEO, CalSTRS
  • Mark Iwry, Senior Advisor to the Secretary and Deputy Assistant Secretary, U.S. Treasury Department
  • Mark Miller, Author and Journalist
  • Earl Pomeroy, Former U.S. Congressman and Senior Counsel, Alston and Bird
  • David M. Rubenstein, Co-Founder and Co-CEO, The Carlyle Group
  • Dallas Salisbury, President and CEO, Employee Benefits Research Institute
  • Damon Silvers, Director of Policy and Special Counsel, AFL-CIO
  • Christian Weller, Professor, University of Massachusetts Boston and Fellow, Center for American Progress

USAA CEO to retire next year

USAA CEO and President, Major General Josue “Joe” Robles Jr., U.S. Army (Ret.), announced today that he will retire from USAA in the first quarter of 2015.

Robles has been instrumental in expanding USAA membership eligibility to all who have ever honorably served in the U.S. military and their eligible family members. Under Robles’ leadership, USAA has grown 53 percent in members, 45 percent in revenue, 68 percent in net worth, and 59 percent in assets owned and managed – all during one of the worst U.S. economic downturns in recent history.

During that same period, which included some of the costliest catastrophe years in USAA history, USAA returned $7.3 billion to members and customers through dividends, distributions, bank rebates and rewards, and remained among just a handful of companies to earn the highest possible ratings for financial strength from Moody’s, A.M. Best and Standard & Poor’s.

After serving on the USAA Board of Directors from 1990 to 1994 while on active duty, Robles joined the company in 1994 as CFO and Controller. He also served as Corporate Treasurer and Chief Administrative Officer before assuming the role of CEO and President in 2007.

Consumer debt reached $11.52 trillion at end of 2013

Aggregate consumer debt increased in the fourth quarter by $241 billion, the largest quarter-to-quarter increase seen since the third quarter of 2007, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

As of December 31, 2013, total consumer indebtedness was $11.52 trillion, up by 2.1% from its level in the third quarter of 2013.

The four quarters ending on December 31, 2013 were the first since late 2008 to register an increase ($180 billion or 1.6%) in total debt outstanding. Nonetheless, overall consumer debt remains 9.1% below its 2008Q3 peak of $12.68 trillion.

Mortgages, the largest component of household debt, increased 1.9% during the fourth quarter of 2013. Mortgage balances shown on consumer credit reports stand at $8.05 trillion, up by $152 billion from their level in the third quarter. Furthermore, calendar year 2013 saw a net increase of $16 billion in mortgage balances, ending the four-year streak of year over year declines.

Balances on home equity lines of credit (HELOC) dropped by $6 billion (1.1%) and now stand at $529 billion. Non-housing debt balances increased by 3.3%, with gains of $18 billion in auto loan balances, $53 billion in student loan balances, and $11 billion in credit card balances.

Delinquency rates improved for most loan types in 2013Q4. As of December 31, 7.1% of outstanding debt was in some stage of delinquency, compared with 7.4% in 2013Q3. About $820 billion of debt is delinquent, with $580 billion seriously delinquent (at least 90 days late or “severely derogatory”).

Delinquency transition rates for current mortgage accounts are near pre-crisis levels, with 1.48% of current mortgage balances transitioning into delinquency. The rate of transition from early (30-60 days) into serious (90 days or more) delinquency dropped, to 20.9%, while the cure rate—the share of balances that transitioned from 30- 60 days delinquent to current—improved slightly, rising to 26.9%.

About 332,000 consumers had a bankruptcy notation added to their credit reports in 2013Q4, roughly flat compared to the same quarter last year.

Housing Debt

  • Originations, which we measure as appearances of new mortgage balances on consumer credit reports, dropped again, to $452 billion.
  • About 157,000 individuals had a new foreclosure notation added to their credit reports between October 1 and December 31.
  • Foreclosures have been on a declining trend since the second quarter of 2009 and are now at the lowest levels seen since the end of 2005.
  • Mortgage delinquency rates have seen consistent improvements; 3.9% of mortgage balances were 90+ days delinquent during 2013Q4, compared to 4.3% in the previous quarter.
  • Serious delinquency rates on Home Equity Lines of Credit decreased to 3.2%, down from 3.5% in 2013Q3.

Student Loans and Credit Cards

  • Outstanding student loan balances reported on credit reports increased to $1.08 trillion (+$53 billion) as of December 31, 2013, representing a $114 billion increase for 2013.
  • About 11.5% of student loan balances are 90+ days delinquent or in default.
  • Balances on credit cards accounts increased by $11 billion.
  • The 90+ day delinquency rate on credit card balances increased slightly to 9.5%.

Auto Loans and Inquiries

  • Auto loan originations decreased in the fourth quarter of 2013 to $88 billion.
  • The percentage of auto loan debt that is 90+ days delinquent remains unchanged at 3.4%.
  • The number of credit inquiries within six months – an indicator of consumer credit demand – remained virtually unchanged from the previous quarter at 169 million.

© 2014 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

U.S. ranks 19th of 20 in Natixis Global Retirement Index

The United States narrowly holds its spot among the top 20 nations globally in its capacity to meet retirement security needs and expectations, according to the 2014 Global Retirement Index, published today by Natixis Global Asset Management. The U.S. scored 19th among 150 nations analyzed, as the benefits of increasing U.S. economic stability are moderated by the potential for rising interest rates and inflation, as well as persistent income inequality.

The 2014 Global Retirement Index is based on an analysis by Natixis Global Asset Management of 20 key trends across four broad categories: Health and healthcare quality, personal income and finances, quality of life and socio-economic factors. Together, these trends provide a dynamic measure of the life conditions and wellbeing expected by retirees and near-retirees.

The U.S. scored higher year over year in all four broad categories, yet was surpassed by other nations trending higher in areas such as healthcare and government debt. For overall retirement security, the U.S. remains behind the majority of countries in Western Europe and Canada, and ahead only of Israel on the list of the top 20 nations. Despite ranking sixth highest in per capita income, the U.S. ranks first in per capita healthcare expenditures, yet 33rd for life expectancy and relatively low (81st) for income inequality.

The 2014 Global Leaders
Retirees in European countries enjoy the greatest financial security in retirement, with eight of the top 10 places among the 150 nations. Countries heading the global list include top-ranked Switzerland, second-ranked Norway (last year’s no. 1), Austria, Sweden, Denmark, Germany, Finland and Luxembourg. Australia and New Zealand are the only non-European countries to break into the top 10 globally.

New Zealand, Iceland and the Republic of Korea are the most improved performers in the top tier of the rankings, with each climbing at least 10 places from last year to enter the top 20. In contrast, Japan dropped from the top 20, as did export-dependent European nations Slovenia and Slovakia. The following table highlights the top 20 countries for 2014 and shows their ranking from last year.

Top 20 Nations for 2014
1. Switzerland (ranked 2nd in 2013)
2. Norway (1)
3. Austria (5)
4. Sweden (4)
5. Australia (11)
6. Denmark (8)
7. Germany (9)
8. Finland (6)
9. New Zealand (22)
10. Luxembourg (3)
11. Iceland (23)
12. Belgium (14)
13. Netherlands (7)
14. Canada (13)
15. France (10)
16. Czech Republic (17)
17. Republic of Korea (27)
18. United Kingdom (20)
19. United States (19)
20. Israel (12)
For a more detailed overview of the Natixis Global Retirement Index, including the rankings of all 150 nations evaluated, go to www.durableportfolios.com.

Trade groups give one cheer for Maryland retirement proposal

Following California, the Maryland legislature is considering legislation that would require nearly all private businesses in the state to provide a workplace retirement savings plan for their employees, according a report in NAPA.net.

The bill would also establish the Maryland Secure Choice Savings Trust, a state-run auto-IRA program for private employers that do not wish to use a private provider to satisfy the requirement.

Private employers who currently offer a private retirement savings plan of any type for employees would not have to do anything new.

In a release, ASPPA and NAPA, trade groups of retirement plan administrators and advisers, said:

“Proposals mandating retirement plan coverage for private employers remain attractive to state legislators who recognize that a failure to address the retirement plan coverage gap means future retirees could be more dependent on social services, straining state resources. As a result, there has been a flurry of legislative activity in multiple states addressing this issue.

“ASPPA and NAPA have been actively engaged in these state legislative efforts. Our goal: to ensure that these bills include four key criteria:

• Any legislation must require private employers above a certain size to offer some type of retirement savings program to employees.
• Any type of private retirement savings product must be allowed to meet the requirement.
• If state legislators believe that a state-run retirement program is necessary, then that program must be an IRA-based program exempt from ERISA.
• Any legislation must include the creation of an online private vendor clearinghouse — a convenient place for private employers to learn about private retirement products that satisfy the requirement.

As a result of offering constructive solutions that make sense to address the coverage problem, ASPPA and NAPA have been given a seat at the table. In the case of the Maryland legislation, for example, Brian Graff, executive director/CEO of ASPPA and NAPA, was invited to participate in a Feb. 20 legislative hearing on the proposal.

“ASPPA and NAPA will continue to work closely and collaboratively with the sponsors of the Maryland bill to ensure that this legislative effort will squarely address the problem of workplace-based retirement plan coverage and access.

“In Maryland and other states, we will not allow the process to be derailed by other agendas; if a proposal does not meet our criteria, we will do everything we can to oppose and defeat it.”

© 2014 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

How to improve public pensions: SoA panel

Public pension experts issued recommendations this week outlining how plans could achieve fully funded status. The “Report of the Blue Ribbon Panel on Public Pension Plan Funding” recommended that public plans should:

  • Improve their financial management, risk analysis and information by disclosing plan maturity, investment risks, stress tests, plan costs, and the ratio of contributions paid to the recommended contribution.
  • Create a standardized contribution benchmark that would allow sponsors to measure the aggregate level of funding risk. This information should be disclosed in actuarial reports, said the panel in a press release. The standardized plan contribution would use a stipulated rate of investment return.
  • Direct their actuaries to disclose the information mentioned above and be required to provide an opinion on the reasonableness of the assumptions and analysis in the funding plan.
  • Implement strong governance practices. That includes the establishment of governance structures to support payment of recommended contributions. Additionally, plans should create a strong risk oversight function at the board level that would consider the cost and risks of proposed plan changes.

Members of the SoA panel were:

Bob Stein, FSA, MAAA, CPA, retired, former global managing partner of actuarial services of Ernst & Young; panel chair

Andrew G. Biggs, Resident Scholar, American Enterprise Institute; panel co-vice chair Douglas J. Elliott, Fellow, The Brookings Institution; panel co-vice chair

Bradley Belt, vice chairman, Orchard Global Capital Group and chairman of Palisades Capital Management; former CEO of the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation

Dana K. Bilyeu, former executive officer of the Public Employees’ Retirement System of Nevada

David Crane, Stanford University, former special advisor to California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger

Malcolm Hamilton, FSA, FCIA, retired, former partner with Mercer; Senior Fellow, C. D. Howe Institute

Laurence Msall, president, The Civic Federation, Chicago, Ill.

Mike Musuraca, managing director, Blue Wolf Capital Partners LLC; former designated trustee to the New York City Employees Retirement System

Bob North, FSA, FSPA, FCA, MAAA, EA, chief actuary, New York City Retirement Systems
Richard Ravitch, co-chair, State Budget Crisis Task Force; former lieutenant governor of the State of New York

Larry D. Zimpleman, FSA, MAAA, chairman, president and CEO, Principal Financial Group

© 2014 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

LIMRA: Annuity sales strongest in 11 years

Annuity sales soared 17% in the fourth quarter, reaching $61.9 billion. It was the largest quarterly percentage increase in 11 years, according to LIMRA Secure Retirement Institute.

Overall for 2013, annuity sales were $230.1 billion, a 5% increase over 2012.

Indexed annuity sales set a new quarterly record of $11.9 billion, an increase of $1.7 billion from the third quarter. For 2013, indexed annuity sales totaled $39.3 billion, up 16% over 2012.

Other significant increases:

  • Overall fixed annuity sales reached $25.6 billion in the fourth quarter of 2013. It was the highest sales total since the second quarter of 2009, up 45% over the fourth quarter of 2012. Total fixed annuities sales grew 17% in 2013, to $84.8 billion.
  • Fixed-rate annuity sales earned $8.5 billion in the fourth quarter. For the year, fixed-rate annuities grew 19% to $29.3 billion.
  • Variable annuity sales grew 4% in the fourth quarter, to $36.3 billion. 
  • Deferred income annuity sales reached $710 million in the fourth quarter, up 82% from the fourth quarter of 2012. In 2013, DIA sales reached $2.2 billion, more than double (113%) 2012 results.

LIMRA attributed the overall growth to improved interest rates, product innovation and organic growth in the banking and broker-dealer channels.

© 2014 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Prudential’s New Edge: Dynamic Rate-Setting

Our February 13 report on the new 3.0 version of Prudential’s Highest Daily variable annuity income rider failed to reveal the critical role played by Prudential’s relatively new “dynamic rate-setting” process. Annuity issuers seem to applaud this development; broker-dealers, not so much.

We had never heard of dynamic rate-setting. But in a conversation with RIJ last week, Bruce Ferris, the head of sales, distribution product management and marketing for Prudential Annuities, explained.

Dynamic rate-setting means Prudential can tweak the rider’s payout rates and roll-up rates as frequently as every month, if necessary, Ferris said. In the past, the insurer needed nine months or so to change certain rates. (There can be no retroactive rate changes, he noted. New rates affect only contracts issued after each change.)

This kind of flexibility is valuable. It narrows the product’s window of exposure to interest rate volatility to just 30 days. With less risk exposure, the carrier can afford to strengthen the benefit. Indeed, because of dynamic rate setting, Prudential was able to raise the new rider’s annual payout rate to a more competitive 5.0% at age 65 for single contracts, from 4.5% in the 2.1 version of HD.

(The new contract has additional risk management measures. It requires at least a 10% allocation to a fixed return account, and the entire portfolio is still subject to Prudential’s risk management algorithm, which automatically shifts money in or out of equities when equity prices rise or fall, respectively.)

Ferris said the shift in strategy required infrastructure modifications, but not regulatory or legal changes. Some of those modifications were internal, others between the carrier and broker/dealers. With annuities, “the essential element of speed to market is speed to the broker/dealers,” observed Joan Boros, a securities and insurance attorney in Washington, D.C.

‘Sweet spot’

“We didn’t change our fees, our step-up frequency, our minimum issue age and, at introduction, our roll-up rate. We merely introduced the same rate-setting process that we used for our PDI (Prudential Deferred Income) product,” Ferris said. “This allowed us, at launch, to raise the withdrawal rates at age 65 to the sweet spot of 5% level for single and 4.5% for spousal contracts. It lets us control our interest rate risk.”

PDI is the company’s entry in the three-year-old, $2.2 billion deferred income annuity (DIA) market, currently dominated by New York Life and Northwestern Mutual Life. PDI is essentially a portfolio of bonds with a guaranteed lifetime withdrawal benefit attached.

“We developed PDI with the idea of creating a dynamic rate-setting ability for it. The need to do that was a function not just of the volatility but also the absolute value of interest rates. We had been living in an environment where rates of 5% to 6% were normal. Then they dropped to 1.45%,” Ferris said.

“That was new. It caused us to rethink our infrastructure and our product design for PDI. The original PDI roll-up and withdrawal rates were 6% and 6%, and even though interest rates pulled back later, we could afford to pull back our roll-up and withdrawal rates to only 5.9%. Without dynamic rate-setting, we would have needed to make a larger reduction.

“Now we’re doing the same thing with the variable annuity as with the PDI. That’s good news for the marketplace and for the consumer. It lets us be sustainable over the long-term,” he added.

Prudential’s new procedure is noted in the latest contract prospectus, dated February 10, 2014.  A cover sheet announces that “This Rate Sheet Supplement Prospectus” supersedes all previous supplements. It makes clear that the current 5% roll-up and 5% payout rates for singles ages 65 to 84 apply only to applications signed between February 10 and March 14, 2014.

On page 44 of the prospectus, there’s a further disclosure that, for people who sign a contract now but elect the income rider later, “the Withdrawal Percentages and Roll-Up Rate applicable to your optional living benefit will be those in effect at the time you elect the optional living benefit, which may be different than the Withdrawal Percentages and Roll-Up Rate available at the time your Annuity is issued.”

Ferris said he expects other annuity issuers to adopt dynamic rate-setting, if they haven’t already. But, while others know about it, they haven’t necessarily begun to use it. At Lincoln Financial, which competes with Prudential in the VA space, a spokesman told RIJ, “We’re aware of Prudential’s approach. But we can’t provide input on Lincoln’s future plans.”

An executive at a major mutual life insurer told RIJ in an e-mail, “I am aware of what Pru did and I think it makes great sense. The cost of providing the guarantees can fluctuate considerably. If manufacturers can be more dynamic in reacting to changing conditions they don’t have to set prices as conservatively. That should benefit investors. I agree it will be a more widely adopted practice.”

“I’m not hearing any specifics about whether other companies will offer similar features,” said a Washington, D.C. attorney who counsels life insurers. “To the extent it represents a product evolution that is financially attractive to both carriers and customers, it would be logical to assume that other carriers will consider offering something similar.”

But not everyone is cheering dynamic rate-setting. One broker-dealer executive told RIJ in an e-mail, “I can certainly understand why they want to do this, but I hope it doesn’t become a trend. It creates some operations issues for the broker/dealers. 

“First, there needs to be a process to lock in the current rates prior to them changing. We do this for fixed and indexed annuities (when rates and caps change) now and we have had to do it with VAs when they change their product. But it’s never been a regular thing on the VA side. 

“Next you have to make sure the advisers know what the current rates are. Again, this is not different from what we do for fixed and indexed products, but it’s new for VAs. Finally, several broker/dealers have tools that calculate the guaranteed minimum income from all of the VA riders they offer. Something has to update this tool every time Prudential changes rates. None of this in itself is a big deal, but it’s just one more headache.”

© 2014 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Prudential’s New Edge: Dynamic Rate-Setting

Our February 13 report on the new 3.0 version of Prudential’s Highest Daily variable annuity income rider failed to reveal the story within the story: the role of Prudential’s “dynamic rate-setting” process.  

In a conversation with RIJ last week, Bruce Ferris, the head of sales, distribution product management and marketing for Prudential Annuities, explained what dynamic rate-setting means.

It means Prudential can tweak the rider’s payout rates and roll-up rates as frequently as every month if it needs to. In the past, it needed nine months or so to file a new prospectus and wait for approval before changing those rates. There can be no retroactive changes, Ferris noted. The new rates affect only contracts issued after the change. 

This new flexibility narrows the product’s window of exposure to interest rate volatility to 30 days. Ferris characterized the change as requiring infrastructure modifications, internally and at the broker/dealer level, rather than a regulatory or legal change.

With less risk exposure, the carrier can afford to strengthen the benefit. Indeed, because of dynamic rate setting, Prudential was able to raise the new rider’s annual payout rate to 5.0% at age 65 for single contracts, from 4.5% for the previous version. (The new contract does require at least a 10% allocation to a fixed return account, as a further risk-reduction measure, and the entire portfolio is still subject to Prudential’s risk management algorithm, which automatically shifts money in or out of equities when equity prices rise or fall, respectively.)

‘Sweet spot’

“We didn’t change our fees, our step-up frequency, our minimum issue age and, at introduction, our roll-up rate. We merely introduced the same rate-setting process that we used for our PDI (Prudential Deferred Income) product,” Ferris said.

“This allowed us, at launch, to raise the withdrawal rates at age 65 to the sweet spot of 5% level for single and 4.5% for spousal contracts. It lets us control our interest rate risk.”

PDI is the company’s entry in the three-year-old, $2.2 billion deferred income annuity (DIA) market, currently dominated by New York Life and Northwestern Mutual Life. PDI is essentially a portfolio of bonds with a guaranteed lifetime withdrawal benefit attached.

“We developed PDI with the idea of creating a dynamic rate-setting ability. The need to do that was a function of not just the volatility but also the absolute value of interest rates. We had been living in an environment where 5% to 6% was normal. Then it dropped to 1.45%,” Ferris said.

“That was new. It caused us to rethink our infrastructure and our product design. That’s what we did with PDI. The original roll-up and withdrawal rates were 6% and 6%, and even though rates pulled back later, we could afford to pull back to only 5.9%. Now we’re doing the same thing with the variable annuity as with the PDI. The good news for the marketplace and for the consumer, is that this lets us be sustainable over the long-term,” he added.

Ferris expected other annuity issuers to adopt dynamic rate-setting, if they haven’t already. At Lincoln Financial, which competes with Prudential in the VA space, a spokesman told RIJ, “We’re aware of Prudential’s approach. But we can provide input on Lincoln’s future plans.”

An executive at a major mutual life insurer told RIJ in an e-mail, “I am aware of what Pru did and I think it makes great sense. The cost of providing the guarantees can fluctuate considerably. If manufacturers can be more dynamic in reacting to changing conditions they don’t have to set prices as conservatively. That should benefit investors. I like it. I agree it will be a more widely adopted practice.”

“I’m not hearing any specifics about whether other companies will offer similar features,” said a Washington, D.C. attorney who counsels life insurers. “To the extent it represents a product evolution that is financially attractive to both carriers and customers, it would be logical to assume that other carriers will consider offering something similar.”

© 2014 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Must-Read Income Research of 2013

Have you ever wondered what the retirement market would look like from 30K feet up? Or how you might respond when someone says, ‘Annuities are great—unless you love your kids’? Or, if you’re a policymaker, how to make people eager to work longer and claim Social Security later?  

If you said yes to any of the above, then keep reading. The answers to those questions and many more can be found in the ten outstanding research articles described here, written by some of the most inquisitive retirement-minded academics in the world. 

Because RIJ has both “town” and “gown” readers, we try to promote the exchange of ideas between the two realms. By town, we mean the executives and entrepreneurs of the retirement industry. By gown, we mean the academics who try to crack the so-called “annuity puzzle.”

So, every winter, RIJ publishes a list of ten praiseworthy research papers that surfaced (as working papers or journal articles) during the previous calendar year. We used to call them the “best” papers of the year, but starting now we’ll call them “notable” or “must-read.” We just can’t claim to be aware of all the good decumulation research that’s produced around the world.

Below, you’ll find synopses of the articles in the class of 2013 (in alphabetical order, by title). Of all the hundreds of eligible papers that emerged last year, it was hard to choose ten. In the end, (after soliciting nominations from experts in the field) we concentrated on articles that contain at least one idea that retirement product developers, marketers or advisers can apply to their work.

Note: We don’t have the discretion to provide direct links to the papers. To obtain copies, you may need to e-mail the authors, or search the article database at the National Bureau of Economic Research, or visit the websites of the journals where the articles appeared.

“Analyzing an Income Guarantee Rider in a Retirement Portfolio.” Wade D. Pfau. Journal of Retirement, Summer 2013. Americans invested $145.3 billion in variable annuity contracts in 2013. That one product category accounted for almost two-thirds of the premium paid for all annuities in the U.S. last year. Its main income feature is the guaranteed lifetime withdrawal benefit (GLWB) rider. This article assesses the pros and cons of the VA with a GLWB. The cons include lack of inflation-adjusted income and fee attrition. The pros include protection against wealth depletion in retirement and from panic during market downturns.

“Complexity as a Barrier to Annuitization: Do Consumers Know How to Value Annuities?” Jeffrey Brown, Arie Kapteyn, Olivia Mitchell and Erzo F. P. Luttmer. NBER and the Pension Research Council, June 2013.

In this deconstruction of the so-called “annuity puzzle”—i.e., Why don’t more retirees annuitize their retirement?—Jeffrey Brown of the University of Illinois and others reject the usual explanations for low annuitization rates. The most likely explanation, they argue, is that most people don’t buy what they can’t easily value, and that annuities are too complex for most people to evaluate. “Valuing an annuity is particularly complex inasmuch as it involves both uncertainty and events that will unfold far in the future,” the authors write. “As a result, individuals are only willing to buy or sell an annuity when it is an exceptionally good deal, and this tendency is strongest among the least financially sophisticated.”

“Consumer Preferences for Annuities: Beyond NPV.” Suzanne Shu, Robert Zeithammer and John Payne. Unpublished working paper.

The authors approach the annuity purchase as a marketing/psychology problem. They apply conjoint analysis (sometimes called “trade off” analysis) to understand consumer preferences vis-à-vis annuities. It’s a popular statistical tool for deciding the relative importance that consumers place on product attributes, such as brand and price. The authors found that an annual $200 increase in income is a more attractive annuity feature than an annual percentage increase, that demand for annuities increases when you add a 10-year to 20-year period certain (but goes down for a five-year or 30-year period certain) and that middle-aged people like annuities more than people who are about to retire. People with middle-level numeracy and $75,000 to $150,000 in savings are especially amenable to annuities. “We find that careful ‘packaging’ of a given net present value into the optimal mix of the attributes can more than double demand for the product,” the authors conclude.

“Exchanging Delayed Social Security Payments for a Lump Sum: Could This Incentivize Longer Work Careers?” Jingjing Chai, Raimond Maurer, Olivia Mitchell and Ralph Rogalla. NBER Working Paper 19032, May 2013.

Americans tend to claim Social Security benefits sooner rather than later, thereby locking in less annual lifetime income (for themselves and often for their surviving spouses) than if they waited a few years. Policymakers would love to see people work longer and claim later. The authors of this paper, three from Goethe University in Frankfurt, Germany, and one from Penn, propose making the reward for postponing benefits a one-time lump sum rather than a larger annual income. On average, they argue, that would incentivize Americans to work 18 to 24 months longer and, in the process, help stabilize the Social Security system without adding costs or reducing benefits. Workers could use the lump sum to invest in equities, fund a bequest or buy the proverbial bass boat.

“The Floor–Leverage Rule for Retirement.” Jason S. Scott and John G. Watson. Financial Analysts Journal, September/October 2013. In this paper, two researchers at Financial Engines propose a retirement risk management technique that calls for building a retirement portfolio roughly along the lines of a structured note. The rule that the title refers to—“floor-leverage”—suggests that a retiree invest 85% of his or her wealth in safe, income-producing floor assets such as an income annuity or a bond ladder. The other 15% would be invested in a triple-leveraged equity fund, where the costs and mechanics of leverage are built into the NAV of the fund. This technique is suggested as an alternative to a 4% systematic withdrawal plan or a bucketing strategy. “It’s for people who want material upside but who also want security,” Scott told RIJ last autumn. “You’re trying to concentrate the risk in the risky assets and create safety in the floor asset.”  

“Legacy Stabilization Using Income Annuities.” Matthew B. Kenigsberg and Prasenjit Dey Mazumdar. Journal of Retirement, Fall 2013. Conventional wisdom has it that income annuities and bequests play a zero-sum game: The more lifetime income the parents buy, the less money they can leave to the children. In this paper, the authors, both from Fidelity Investments, show evidence for the reverse: that annuities can protect a potential bequest from the risk that parents will live long enough to consume all their wealth. In short, annuities have the potential to relieve rather than intensify inter-generational tension by unlinking the parents’ deaths from the transfer of wealth. 

“Optimal Portfolio Choice with Annuities and Life Insurance for Retirement Couples.” Andreas Hubener, Raimond Maurer and Ralph Rogalla. Review of Finance, February 2013. This paper evaluates the use of term life insurance and annuities in retirement by couples. It finds that term life insurance becomes most important when the wife is younger than her husband, when the husband’s pension income ends when he dies, and when the wife has little additional liquid savings to fall back on. (The paper doesn’t evaluate the use of whole life policies for bequest purposes.) The availability of Social Security’s generous joint life annuity currently crowds out much of the need for private annuities, the authors suggest. But they say that demand for private annuities could rise if Social Security benefits are reduced and as the number of retirees with defined benefit pensions declines.  

“Optimizing Retirement Income: An Adaptive Approach Based on Assets and Liabilities.” Yuan-An Fan, Steve Murray and Sam Pittman. Journal of Retirement, Summer 2013.” Advisers of retirees know that most financial plans will undergo periodic changes or “course corrections” in response to market performance or new personal circumstances. Recognizing that, analysts at Russell Investments suggest an “adaptive” approach to retirement investing. Taking a cue from pension fund risk management and echoing the principle of constant proportion portfolio insurance (CPPI), the model calls for assessing a client’s funded status at specific points during retirement and adjusting the equity allocation as needed. “The adaptive model suggests that retirees should consider adapting their exposure to equity based on their level of wealth relative to the value of their spending goal, instead of maintaining a constant mixture of equity and fixed income,” the authors write. The model suggests reductions in equity allocations for retirees who are barely funded and more aggressive equity allocations for those who are well funded.   

“Recent Changes in the Gains from Delaying Social Security.” John B. Shoven and Sita Nataraj Slavov. NBER Working Paper No. 19370, August 2013.

In 2013, Social Security’s reputation changed significantly. Our national pension was no longer villified as a poor investment, as it often was during the reform debates of the mid-2000s. Instead, many people realized that the rate of gain in income from delaying Social Security past full retirement age was much greater than the return on safe assets. In addition, many people began to discuss the “file-and-suspend” strategy by which primary earners can receive spousal benefits while delaying their own benefits. Shoven and Slavov’s paper explains when and how (as well as for whom and by how much) Social Security benefits became more generous. “If the primary earner was born in 1951,” they write, “a one-earner couple could gain more than $85,000, and a two-earner couple could gain more than $100,000 through optimal claiming relative to claiming at 62… For singles born in 1951, the gains from delay are more than $30,000 for men and more than $50,000 for women.”

“The RIIA Balance Sheet: The Head Office Perspective.” Elvin J. Turner and Larry Cohen. Retirement Management Journal, Vol. 3, No. 2, 2013. This article describes the “topology” of the retirement market. Using a kind of multi-dimensional prism, it reveals the many segments of the market, their attributes, and their relationships to one another. Consumers are segmented by age and asset levels, household assets are segmented by financial and other types of assets, distributors are segmented by their revenue models, and products are segmented by individual annuities, retail mutual funds and defined contribution plans. This article, based on ideas that the members of the Retirement Income Industry Association have been refining for a decade, provides a roadmap for people who are trying to orient themselves within the complex retirement marketplace.

© 2014 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.     

BlackRock’s Non-Insured Path to Predictable Income

Last year BlackRock launched a free new “razor” called the CoRI Retirement Index. Last week it introduced the “blades” for that razor: the CoRI Funds, a series of five actively managed target-dated mutual funds that invest primarily in investment-grade bonds.    

The new funds, which are intended to attract the tax-deferred assets of Boomers ages 55 to 64, are managed (with the CoRI Index as a guide) to grow to a specific value in a specific number of years. The target value is the cost of an inflation-adjusted income annuity that (at age 65) delivers the level of income predicted at time of purchase. BlackRock has been talking about the CoRI Funds for months, and now they’re available.

This non-insured product appears to deliver some of the same benefits as deferred income annuities or deferred annuities with lifetime withdrawal benefits. But, while the future income stream of a DIA is guaranteed and the contract owner must annuitize at the end of the deferral period, CoRI Funds are not guaranteed to hit their target value, nor must the client annuitize.

The CoRI Funds could also serve as an alternative to bond index funds, offering a haven from interest rate risk for near-retirees who currently have a lot of money in bond funds but fret that those funds will fall in value as rates rise. In that scenario, the CoRI Funds could help protect them from sequence-of-returns risk while they pass through the so-called Retirement Red Zone.

Calculating your CoRI Index

What’s the CoRI Retirement Index? It’s a benchmark that tracks the current price of a dollar of future inflation-adjusted income. Using an online calculator, prospects can, by inputting their current age, discover their personal Index value, which is the cost today of a dollar of lifetime income at age 65.  By dividing their investable assets by the Index value, they can find out about how much income their savings will deliver—assuming that they invest in an age-appropriate CoRI Fund now and convert the assets to an inflation-adjusted single premium immediate annuity at 65.

Here’s an example. You go to the CoRI website and input the datum that you’re 57 years old. The calculator will tell you that your CoRI Index is $14.53. Then you input the datum that you have $800,000 in savings. The calculator will tell you that, based on your CoRI Index of $14.53, your savings could buy an immediate inflation-adjusted annuity that will pay $55,058 a year starting when you reach age 65.

Since time is money, the older you are (up to age 64), the higher your CoRI Index will be and the more your future income will cost. A 60-year-old’s Index today would be $16.58 and he or she would have to invest $913,000 to get a $55,058 income at 65, not the $800,000 that a 57-year-old would pay.  

The five initial CoRI Funds, which were filed with the SEC last July 30, are limited-term mutual funds. They’re designed for Boomers who will reach retirement age in 2015, 2017, 2019, 2021, and 2023. They’re actively managed to track the CoRI Index for each of those years. The managers will generally invest 80% of the assets in investment grade bonds and the rest in riskier assets, including derivatives. 

Each fund has a current expense ratio of 0.83% (1.17% if and when fee waivers expire) and 0.34% for institutional class (0.58% if waivers expire). There’s a front-end load that starts at 4% for initial investments below $25,000 but gradually declines to zero for investments of $1 million or more.

CoRI Funds aren’t designed to be held indefinitely. It’s up to the individual to decide if or when to sell the funds and whether to buy an annuity or tap the bonds for systematic withdrawals. But in the year the investor turns age 75, “the fund will be liquidated and your remaining investment returned to you,” according to BlackRock.

While there’s no guarantee that investments in a CoRI Fund will deliver the projected income on the projected date, BlackRock evidently will apply a lot of active, quantitative management toward meeting that goal. Instead of watching the NAV of their traditional bond funds fluctuate between now and retirement, 55-year-olds, for example, could rely on the presumed predictability of their CoRI 2023 Fund.

“Understanding what a lump sum savings provides in estimated retirement income is difficult,” said Chip Castille, managing director and head of BlackRock’s U.S. Retirement Group, in a release last week. “The CoRI Indexes enable pre-retirees to quickly estimate the annual lifetime income their current savings may generate once they turn 65.”

In essence, these are target date funds whose managers try to track a benchmark that’s based on the age of the investor, the prevailing interest rates, the anticipated future prices of income annuities and other variables. By all accounts, that’s not an easy task.

As someone familiar with CoRI Funds explained at the Morningstar Ibbotson Conference in Phoenix today, it’s one thing to create an inflation-adjusted annuity price index; It’s quite another thing to successfully track that index, given all the variables involved. Others have noted the complexity of the CoRI concept. The mere fact that the CoRI Index and the client’s future annual income are inversely related (the lower the Index, the more income per dollar invested) may be confusing to some investors.

“My sense is that the CoRI Index is a sophisticated process that may go over the head of the average investor,” said one annuity industry participant. “It may be more for advisory use.”

Alternative to an annuity

As noted above, investors could probably accomplish the same goal with a deferred income annuity (which would require annuitization) or with a fixed-rate deferred annuity (which permits but doesn’t require annuitization). But investors who are averse to annuities might prefer BlackRock’s non-insurance approach. Owners of tax-deferred accounts, who don’t need another layer of tax-deferral over their investments, may also find the CoRI mutual fund approach less redundant than an annuity.

Indeed, the funds are intended for, but not limited to, tax-deferred accounts, according to the prospectus. It’s not hard to see how the CoRI Funds might appeal to 401(k) plan sponsors or IRA advisers who want to encourage participants or clients to adjust their mindsets from accumulation to decumulation without necessarily bringing the complexities of annuities into the picture.

The CoRI concept, not unlike Financial Engines’ Income Plus and Dimensional Fund Advisors’ Managed DC, seems able to help guide a participant’s portfolio toward the fulfillment of an income goal while remaining agnostic on the purchase of an annuity. This is one direction in which the retirement industry seems to be moving.

Plan sponsors today arguably feel more pressure to reduce fees than to provide income solutions, however, and CoRI Funds cost much more than bond index funds. If the contract’s temporary fee waivers ever expire—they’re good at least until March 1, 2015, according to BlackRock—and the expense ratios jump to 1.17% (for individual accounts) and to 0.58% (for institutional accounts), plan sponsor advisers may have a harder time justifying the higher cost.  

But individual investors and their advisers might like the CoRI Funds’ combination of semi-certainty and full liquidity. An investor can always decide to sell his or her CoRI Fund and put the money somewhere else. That scenario wouldn’t necessarily be bad for BlackRock. The CoRI concept might still have served as a hook for attracting, at least temporarily, many millions of dollars in 401(k) and IRA money from near-retirees.  

© 2014 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

MetLife exits U.K. bulk annuity market

MetLife Assurance, a U.K. subsidiary of the U.S. insurance giant, has sold its bulk annuity book to Rothesay Life Ltd., a British-based pensions insurance provider, IPE.com reported. The sale marks MetLife Assurance’s exit from the U.K. and Irish markets.

Rothesay Life was founded by Goldman Sachs in 2007. Last fall, Goldman Sachs sold 64% of the firm to Blackstone (28.5%), GIC (28.5%) and MassMutual (7%), according to Artemis.bm.

The MetLife-Rothesay deal, still subject to regulatory approval, will move around £3bn (€3.7bn and $5.1 billion) in assets between the insurers. In the U.K. bulk annuity market, insurers buy the annuity contracts of members in defined benefit (DB) plans in return for assets and premiums.

That market opened up in the middle of the 2000s. MetLife entered the market around 2007 and soon gathered vast assets. But conditions changed, and hedging replaced risk-transfer as a de-risking measure. Other insurers, such as Aviva and Lucida, downsized or abandoned their involvement in the bulk annuity business.

The purchase by Rothesay Life boosts its position in the market, as it steps up competition with market leader Pension Insurance Corporation (PIC). Addy Loudiadis, chief executive at Rothesay Life, said the acquisition of MetLife Assurance would turn Rothesay into the largest dedicated provider of bulk annuity assets, in terms of assets under management. With the transfer of MetLife’s 20,000 policies from the U.K. and Ireland, and £3bn in assets, Rothesay now has more than £10bn in AUM.

© 2014 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

In the U.K., “collective DC” beats “pure DC”: Aon Hewitt

U.K. employers who find the costs of their defined benefit (DB) plans unmanageable should move toward collective defined contribution (CDC) instead of pure defined contribution plans, according to Aon Hewitt, IPE.com has reported.

A shift to DC plans would only drive up DB sponsor costs because the DC plan sponsors can’t “contract out” of participation in the so-called S2P—the supplemental state pension. They would have to start contributing to S2P, which would raise costs by about 3% a year, according Aon Hewitt.

“We urge them to start considering CDC now,” said Matthew Arends, a partner at Aon Hewitt. “It can be a desirable alternative to implementing a DC arrangement in 2016.” Aon Hewitt also called on the government to provide more certainty on the timetable for legislative changes required before CDC can be implemented.

In any event, the S2P will be gone entirely by 2016, when the U.K. moves to a simpler, single-tier pension like our Social Security program. And CDC—a hybrid of DB and DC with centrally managed assets and a variable income stream—may be the next big thing in the U.K. anyway. 

The U.K. pensions minister, Steve Webb, has been a promoter of U.K.-style CDC, which he calls “Defined Ambition.” He was inspired by the Dutch and Danish retirement systems, where collective defined contribution, in which participants and employers share risks, is often the model. In a speech last October, Webb said it was one of the core options he envisaged for the future of U.K. pensions.

CDC has received support from several sections of the U.K. pensions industry and across the political spectrum. Even the opposition Labor Party’s representative for pensions, Gregg McClymont, has backed the exploration of CDC, reversing the sentiments of a 2009 Labor government white paper. 

One big question is whether the government will be able to pass legislation supporting Defined Ambition/CDC by 2016, when the single-tier pension will be instituted. If a CDC option isn’t available, DB plan sponsors may choose pure DC instead.

Aon Hewitt said it also expected CDC to be enshrined into legislation by 2015, taking effect as contracting-out comes to an end. Arends called on the government to provide certainty on the timetable for implementing CDC, in a bid to avoid employers having no alternative to pure DC.

© 2014 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

What Boomers want, and when they want it: Hearts & Wallets

“Responsiveness,” “certifications or credentials,” and being “proactive” are all attributes that consumers who are on a “Retirement Learning Curve” look for in advisers, according to a report on new research by Boston-area consulting firm, Hearts & Wallets, LLC.

The Retirement Learning Curve, as defined by H&W principals Chris Brown and Laura Varas, is much bigger than the so-called retirement “red zone.” It starts seven to 10 years before full-time work ends and lasts for 11 or more years after retirement, they said.

“Some [adviser] attributes, or service dimensions, like being ‘proactive,’ peak in importance before work stops and remain somewhat high after retirement. Others, like being ‘easily reachable by telephone,’ also peak but increase even more after retirement,” Brown said in a recent press release.

The latest announcement from Hearts & Wallets highlights two of its proprietary studies, “Insight Module 9: Approaching Retirement & the Retirement Learning Curve”and “Insight Module 8: State of Retirement Funding & Household Finances in 2013.” Module 9 is a guide for providers and advisors to understand changes in consumer income, attitudes, and the desired products, services and provider attributes during the pre- to post-retirement transition.

Module 8 includes these topics: Income Sources, Savings, Spending, Debt, Real Estate & Retirement, and Explore: Surprises of Modern Retirement: How Pension Status and Timing is Key to Approaching the Biggest Segment of U.S. Investors as well as the bonus: Retirement Market Income Marketing-Sizing Data, including 2020 Projection.

Module 8 is part of Hearts & Wallets’ annual Quant Panel of more than 5,000 U.S. households, a representative cross-section of the American population, which tracks specific segments and product trends and forms a flexible and inquisitive proprietary database of insights into investor needs and wants as the source for a series of syndicated reports and customized client analyses.

H&W’s research adds some documentation to what advisers may already know from experience. “Advice source consolidation begins three to four years ahead of retirement, heats up during the retirement event and continues the first three to four years of retirement,” according to the firm’s release. “Well before stopping full-time work, most Americans also shift to more conservative portfolios and have a growing risk aversion.”

They’ve identified a window in which they think consumers will be receptive to a pitch from an adviser. “Acquisition opportunity is greatest three to seven years before the retirement event. That’s when households are most likely to try a new provider,” the release said.  

Income generation capacity seems to fall two years before people leave the last full-time job, H&W found. Gross household income drops 16% on average ($93,000 to $78,000) during the last two to four years before retirement. To offset the decline, some near-retirees tap into their nest egg prematurely. 

Anxiety about finance, especially inflation, mirrors this two-year pre-retirement pattern. Anxiety peaks at 29% within two years of stopping full-time work and declines sharply after retirement. As people become accustomed to their new retirement lifestyle, the share of households with little or no anxiety rises.

Only about half of those within 10 years of stopping full-time work are ages 55 to 64. Many are younger. Seventeen million households believe they are within 10 years of the breadwinner stopping full-time work, although only six million households self-identify as pre-retirees.

American households that are transitioning out of full-time work have about $350,000 of investable assets, on average. Median savings is less than $100,000, however, and 12% of households retire with no savings at all. The study also found, oddly, that 58% of households are still “saving something” even 10 years after retirement.

The Hearts & Wallets study also found that near-retirees start to shift money away from self-service investment firms and toward shift banks and full-service providers during the years directly before and after retirement.  

© 2014 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

2014 will be a good year for insurers: Conning

Analysts at Conning Research are bullish on the U.S. and global insurance industry. Their new study, “2014: U.S. and Global Insurance Industry Outlook,” suggests that insurers worldwide should benefit from “improved operating conditions and the initiatives they have been pursuing in response to the challenges of the past few years.”

“Our outlook for the U.S. insurance industry in 2014 is for stable results and some gradual improvement across most segments, but with increasing uncertainty brought on by economic, political or regulatory developments unfolding in the period,” said Stephan Christiansen, a managing director and head of Insurance Research at Conning in a release.

“In 2013, we discussed continuing struggles in the U.S. and global economies, along with capital markets volatility and rising regulatory challenges, and cautioned that insurers needed to take action to improve performance, rather than waiting for a better time.
It was prescient. Market performance does appear to be improving, though the economic and market environments do not appear to be the primary cause,” said the introduction to the report.

Steve Webersen, director of research at Conning, said in a statement that “three key factors: economic climate, interest rate environment and regulation” will shape the global insurance industry.

“Fragmented economic growth is creating new pockets of opportunity, while challenging established markets. As in the U.S., growing regulatory convergence and complexity are increasingly commanding insurer attention and resources,” he added.

Conning is an investment management company for the global insurance industry, with more than $83 billion in assets under management as of Dec. 31, 2013 through Conning, Inc.

The new report has three parts:

  • The first part includes Conning’s views on likely events and conditions in 2014, in terms of the economy, segment performance, regulatory changes, etc.
  • The second level considers what the insurance industry is investing in and committing resources to in 2014, with an analysis of the potential impact of those efforts in subsequent years.   
  • The third level covers competitive reshaping of the industry, longer-term implications of regulatory trends, and possibilities opening up with technology and marketplace changes.


According to the introduction:

“Our outlook for the U.S. insurance industry in 2014 is for stable results and some gradual improvement across most segments… This broad view is accompanied by increasing uncertainty; improvements may be interrupted or reversed through economic, political, or regulatory developments unfolding in 2014.


“Our outlook for the global insurance industry is focused primarily on Europe (including the U.K.) and Asia. Regulatory and economic changes dominate in both regions. Growing regulatory convergence and complexity are commanding insurer attention and resources. Fragmented economic growth is creating new pockets of growth, while challenging established markets.

“We also discuss some emerging drivers of opportunity, and emerging challenges, in the rest of the world: in Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa.

© 2014 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

U.S. economy faces four headwinds, economist warns

A new paper from a Northwestern University economist posits that the growth rate in the U.S. over the next several decades, at least for most people, will be lower than the 2.0% average per capita GDP growth that the country experienced between 1891 and 2007.   

“Future growth will be 1.3% per annum for labor productivity in the total economy, 0.9% for output per capita, 0.4 % for real income per capita of the bottom 99% of the income distribution, and 0.2 % for the real disposable income of that group,” wrote Robert J. Gordon in NBER Working Paper 19895.

  • Gordon identified four “widely recognized and uncontroversial” headwinds:  Demographic shifts will reduce hours worked per capita, due to the retirement of the Baby Boom generation and an exit from the labor force both of youth and prime-age adults.
  • Educational attainment will stagnate at a plateau as the U.S. sinks lower in the world league tables of high school and college completion rates.
  • Inequality continues to increase; the bottom 99% of earners will see a rate of real income growth that is fully half a point per year below the average growth of all incomes.
  • A projected long-term increase in the ratio of debt to GDP at all levels of government will eventually lead either to higher tax revenues and/or slower growth in transfer payments.

Gordon disagrees with the “techno-optimists” who believe that the U.S. is on the cusp of a surge in technological change. He thinks we’re already well into an innovation slowdown. “In the eight decades before 1972 labor productivity grew at an average rate 0.8% per year faster than in the four decades since 1972,” his paper said.  

Historical examples cited in the paper suggest that “the future of technology can be forecast 50 or even 100 years in advance.” The paper assesses innovations anticipated to occur over the next few decades, including medical research, small robots, 3-D printing, big data, driverless vehicles and oil-gas fracking.

© 2014 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.