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The 800-pound Irony of TDFs

Last Friday, January 14, was the deadline for industry comments on the Department of Labor’s proposed amendments to regulations surrounding target-date fund disclosures, and most of comments were submitted on the final day.

There weren’t many. Only 30 comment letters on TDF regs were filed since late November 2010 with the DoL’s Employee Benefit Security Administration (EBSA). But many came from organizations—or from the general counsels of those organizations—that represent millions of people and trillions of dollars.   

We’re talking about Vanguard and Fidelity (managers of 60% of TDF assets), the American Council of Life Insurers (variable annuity issuers), the Profit-Sharing Council of America (plan sponsors), the Defined Contribution Institutional Investors Association (asset managers), the Investment Company Institute (mutual funds), AARP (retirees), etc.

(You can find all the comments at the EBSA website.)

The industry’s comments pointed in many directions, but boiled down to a half dozen concerns that regulations might make the whole TDF mess even messier. For instance, makers of TDFs fear that fresh warnings about the risks of TDFs might give the impression that TDFs are any riskier than other investments. 

In the same spirit of damage control, industry lawyers wanted to make sure that regulations for TDFs don’t apply to managed accounts in retirement plans, and that new regulations don’t simply duplicate old regulations—a justifiable fear—and that EBSA won’t set too short a deadline for compliance.

New TDF disclosure requirements appear to be inevitable, however, mainly because TDFs blew up during the financial crisis. Yes, they’ve since bounced back. But the crisis revealed that, as a class, they lacked the standardization and transparency that you might expect of a product that had been approved as a qualified default investment alterative (QDIA) for broad use by America’s least astute investors. The primary problem was a dangerous overweighting in equities under the fuzzy rationale that retirees with inadequate savings should own risky assets in order to avoid running out of money.

Now the activist administration that the financial crisis helped usher into office—specifically, EBSA chief Phyllis Borzi—wants to make sure the TDF industry doesn’t go back to business as usual simply because the funds have rebounded (with massive help from the Fed, but that’s another story). Hence the current verbal duel between regulators and lawyers. 

Sadly, most (but not all) ignored the 800-pound irony in the room: Why negotiate over disclosures when the people who invest in TDFs don’t read disclosures? TDFs are designed for plan participants who don’t have the time, expertise or inclination to get involved in saving or investing. Eighty percent of them, according to one EBSA comment letter, abandon their TDFs at retirement anyway.

The most pertinent and compelling comments came from those who pointed out what should be obvious: that plan sponsors and plan fiduciaries are responsible for ensuring that plan participants have investment options that will help them accumulate adequate savings by their retirement age with minimal risk. DC plan fiduciaries, not regulators, should be the ones demanding investment options that don’t have hidden vulnerabilities.  

One fog-clearing letter came from Joe Nagengast, a principal at Target Date Analytics, LLC, Marina del Rey, Calif.. He posited that a TDF’s “ floor objective is to deliver at target date accumulated contributions intact plus inflation, and a target objective is to grow assets as much as possible without jeopardizing the floor objective.” A TDF’s pursuit of other objectives—like solving longevity risk by investing in equities—only jeopardize the primary objective,” he wrote.

Regarding the all-important fiduciary issue, Ron Surz, president of Target Date Solutions, of San Clemente, Calif., wrote in his EBSA comment letter: “Proposals that focus on participant enlightenment are misguided for two reasons: participants don’t choose TDFs and they don’t read disclosures.

“Fiduciaries, namely plan sponsors and their advisors, choose target date funds, and they should read disclosures, although it would seem that they don’t. So why is this an important distinction? You wield the stick of potential litigation, probably best focused on fiduciaries rather than fund companies.” Surz, a frequent critic of the mainstream TDF industry, wants fiduciaries to insist on zero equity allocation at retirement.

Yes, I know that TDFs might be better than nothing, and that most TDFs are sold by circumspect outfits like Vanguard and Fidelity. But, at the margins, TDFs can be guilty of, if not murder, then reckless endangerment. They’ve succeeded because they’re a convenient way to provision a large, captive, undiscriminating audience, and because they bear the QDIA stamp of approval (with its attendant moral hazard)—not because they have intrinsic merit. Custom TDFs might represent an improvement, but that’s a different story, and the latest round of comments doesn’t appear to address them.  

© 2011 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

2010 saw modest gains in global pension funding: Aon Hewitt

Global pension funding levels ended the year slightly up, despite a roller coaster year, according to a new analysis from Aon Hewitt, the global human resource consulting and outsourcing business of Aon Corporation.

Aon Hewitt monitors and analyzes daily pension funding levels of U.S., U.K., Continental European and Canadian companies in the S&P 500, FTSE 350, DJ Euro Stoxx 50 and TSX, through its Pension Risk Tracker tool.

The analysis found that the funded status of global pension plans were 87% at the end of 2010, up slightly from 86% at the beginning of the year. According to Aon Hewitt’s estimate, global pension assets increased by 8% during the year, while pension liabilities increased by 7% over the same period.

Analysis by region

According to Aon Hewitt’s analysis, global pension assets gained in 2010, fueled by a strong performance in equity markets and bond price appreciations due to falling interest rates.  

United States

  • Pension funded status in the U.S. closed 2010 at 88%, unchanged from the start of the year. Three quarters of positive returns offset the negative returns of the second quarter and the drop in interest rates.
  • Strong equity returns of 5% to 15% and a 30-50 basis point recovery in corporate bond rates boosted end-of-year status by six percentage points.

“Action [in 2011] will take the form of dynamic de-risking…  Plan sponsors will also shift their focus to the payment of lump sums starting in 2012, when the changes in terms brought on by the Pension Protection Act are fully implemented,” said Joe McDonald, Aon Hewitt’s Global Risk Services leader in the U.S.

United Kingdom

  • Accounting deficits eased significantly for U.K. companies in the FTSE 350 index during the fourth quarter of 2010. Assets rose by just over 2% and liabilities fell by 4%.
  • The drop in liability values was largely due to an increase in corporate bond yields of 40 basis points, although this was partially offset by an increase in market implied inflation.
  • The average funded ratio increased to about 91% at the end of the year from 85% at the start of the final quarter, despite a rise in bond prices and collapse of equity prices on the last trading day of the year.  as bond prices increased and equities fell.
  • The year saw double-digit growth in asset values outstripping the increase in liabilities. The aggregate deficit of FTSE 350 companies reduced from pounds Sterling 60bn at the start of the year to under pounds 50bn—an improvement but still low compared to 2008 and 2009.
  • Volatility of funding ratios continues, with many daily changes in excess of 1 percentage point—not critical, but enough to cause significant distress to finance directors seeking to control emerging quarterly results.

Continental Europe

  • In Continental Europe, average funded ratios fell to 71% from 75% over the course of the year, as liabilities grew faster than asset values.  
  • Funding levels fall as low as 64% in August, before peaking at 73% just before the December holidays. Rising bond yields boosted fourth quarter funding levels. Funding levels fell a full percentage point on the last trading day of the year.   

Canada

In Canada, a positive fourth quarter 2010—assets rose 4%, liabilities fell 2%–helped reverse some of the losses by pension plans in the first three quarters.

The average funded ratio among companies in the S&P/TSX index increased from to 94% on December 31 from 88% on October 1.  However, the positive results were not enough to reverse loses experienced during the first three quarters. Volatility continued to be a major concern throughout the quarter, with daily changes in funded ratios of 2%.  

© 2011 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

 

BNY Mellon study notes funding pressures on US retirement plans

A new study by BNY Mellon Asset Servicing says U.S. retirement plan sponsors face “unprecedented cost pressures” and that many “are reducing the benefits they offer or looking to rebalance funding between employers and employees.”  

The study, Redefining Retirement: What Changes to Defined Benefit and Defined Contribution Plans Mean for Plan Sponsors and Their Service Providers, concludes that plan executives believe that they “will either pay now for their retirees’ benefits or that they, or society, will pay later.”

The study found that:

  • 50% of private company executives surveyed said that their plans made them more competitive as an employer, whereas 73% of public plan executives felt that their plans were an asset.
  • The attractiveness of defined contribution plans for employers lies in the reduction of funding volatility; in the long run, funding costs for defined contribution may be higher or lower than current costs, but the ability to control volatility is seen as an unparalleled advantage.
  • Hybrid defined benefit/defined contribution plans offer the professional management of defined benefit with the portability of defined contribution; some type of hybrid plan may be the best solution for employers and employees if employer costs can be managed effectively.
  • Executives are looking to their service providers for help in assessing performance for private equity and other illiquid assets, and defining new strategies for assuring a stable retirement for their employees.

The study was co-produced with research and consulting firm Finadium LLC.  

“The most pressing question that sponsors of defined benefit and defined contribution plans have to answer today is how to provide retirement benefits that offer employees sufficient funding without causing further strain to employer balance sheets or government budgets,” said Laurin Moore, head of the US Tax Exempt Business at BNY Mellon Asset Servicing.

As the study notes, 55% of plan sponsors surveyed expect to need greater assistance in respect of performance measurement, while 35% expect the same in respect of risk management, particularly for illiquid investments in their defined benefit programs.

The study is based on interviews with large US pension plans conducted during June 2010, accounting for US$749.9 billion in assets across 30 retirement systems (16 corporations and 14 public entities). Of the systems surveyed, 81% of assets were in DB plans with the remainder in DC and a handful of health care retirement accounts. Over two-thirds of the plans surveyed held assets in the US$5 billion to US$50 billion range. The study is available at bnymellon.com/foresight/pdf/redefiningretirement.pdf.

© 2011 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

 

 

 

U.S. Treasury now owns AIG

American International Group (AIG) has executed its previously announced recapitalization plan with the U.S. Treasury, the New York Fed, the AIG Credit Facility Trust (the Trust), including repaying about $21 billion to the Fed and exchanging various forms of government support into common shares. 

As a result, the Treasury Department will owning about 92% of AIG’s common shares. AIG expects that over time the Treasury Department will sell its stake in AIG subject to market conditions.

 “Now, we will continue to focus on strong business performance for the benefit of all of our stakeholders, including our largest shareholder, the Treasury Department,” said Robert H. Benmosche, AIG president and CEO. “We continue to believe [taxpayers] will realize a profit on their investment in AIG.”

© 2011 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

 

QE 1 & 2 boost stocks, not economy: TrimTabs

The Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing programs are supposed to jump-start the economy and generate jobs but have only helped raise stock prices, according to TrimTabs Investment Research. 

 “While QE1 and QE2 have worked wonders on the stock market, their impact on GDP and jobs has been anemic at best,” said Madeline Schnapp, Director of Macroeconomic Research at TrimTabs. 

“GDP increased a modest 2.7% in the third quarter of last year,” noted Schnapp.  “We need GDP growth of 3.0% to 3.5% to significantly reduce unemployment.  Employment gains averaged only 94,000 monthly in 2010, much less than the 150,000 per month needed to absorb population growth, and consumers collectively have $1.1 trillion less to spend annually than in 2008.”

TrimTabs noted a correlation between quantitative easing and equities.  The S&P 500 rose 67% during QE1, the period from March 2009 to March 2010 when the Fed bought nearly $2 trillion in mortgage-backed securities, Treasuries, and agency debt. 

Stock prices fell 13% in the subsequent five months, but have risen 20% since Fed Chairman Bernanke announced QE2 at the end of last August 2010.“When QE2 ends in June, the economy is in danger of returning to slow growth mode unless its structural problems are addressed,” predicted Schnapp. 

© 2011 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

The Latest on TDFs (from Vanguard, ASPPA, SPARK, et al)

Most target-date fund investors understand the funds’ basic design and their risks, but need “education about the highly diversified nature of a single-target date fund,” according to a new study by Vanguard, the second-largest manager of target-date funds in the U.S.

In its Investor Comprehension and Usage of Target-Date Funds: 2010 Survey, Vanguard also found “opportunities exist to improve investors’ knowledge of target-date fund (TDF) mechanics at and around the target date, and the implications of combining TDFs with other assets.”

The study showed that only 62% of plan participants who owned TDFs had ever heard of a TDF.  That finding didn’t surprise Vanguard, since most of those participants were probably defaulted into TDFs and, ipso facto, didn’t need to know or understand them.    

“Participants who are not aware of TDFs are likely to be unengaged investors—and these funds are intended to provide such investors with a prudently diversified portfolio,” said John Ameriks, head of Vanguard Investment Counseling & Research.

New round of debate

The release of the study roughly coincided with the end of the period for comments on Department of Labor proposed regulations on TDF disclosures, on January 14. The deadline produced a new flurry of recommendations by retirement industry groups such as the American Society of Pension Professionals and Actuaries and the SPARK Institute.

TDFs, of course, have been under scrutiny since they failed to protect near-retirement investors from significant losses in the 2008-2009 financial crisis. The funds had carried a certain assumption of safety—at least for those near retirement—especially after they became a QDIA (qualified default investment alternative) for 401(k) plans.   

ASPPA, the American Society of Pension Professionals and Actuaries, recently made several recommendations to EBSA regarding TDF disclosures. For instance, ASPPA believes that merely disclosing the asset allocation of a target date fund does little for the many plan participants who take a lump sum at retirement and roll it into an IRA. ASPPA also suggested advising participants that a TDF that seems appropriate for them might not be appropriate if they have much younger spouses.

The SPARK Institute, an association of plan service providers, recommended removing disclosure language that emphasized the risk of loss from investments in TDFs. “All plan investment options involve varying degrees of risk and EBSA should not single out target date funds, since they may be a good choice for many participants,” ASPPA’s Larry Goldbrum said.

Ron Surz, president of PPCA, Inc., in San Clemente, Calif., and an advocate of TDFs that contain zero equities at the target retirement date, also released comments. “Fiduciaries need to take back control of TDFs by setting objectives that can be realistically achieved,” he wrote in an email.

Surz continued: [They should] “deliver at least accumulated contributions plus inflation at the target date… [and] “grow assets as much as possible without jeopardizing the primary preservation objective.” [But] “the  investment policies for achieving these objectives stand far apart from current industry practices.”

Vanguard’s findings

For its study, Vanguard in January 2010 surveyed 4,700 Vanguard IRA owners and participants in Vanguard-administered retirement plans, some of who owned TDFs and some who didn’t.  

Among Vanguard’s findings:

  • Some 95% of TDF investors in IRA accounts reported having “heard of a target-date fund,” versus 62% of TDF owners in defined contribution retirement plans. Vanguard wasn’t surprised, because participants are frequently defaulted into TDFs.
  • Only 24% of the participants knew that the asset allocation of most TDFs continues to change after the target year. 
  • 61% of participants said they chose TDFs because they wanted “a balanced portfolio, simplicity, and convenience.”
  • Among investors who hold other investments along with a TDF, 56% said they did so to hold “more aggressive investments.” Another 41% thought they needed a mixed portfolio for adequate diversification.
  • 75% of participants said they intended to gradually draw down their target-date fund assets.
  • more than 90% of the respondents plan to have an equity position in their portfolio at retirement.
  • 77% knew that the asset allocation becomes more conservative as the target year approaches, showing an understanding of these funds’ changing asset allocation.
  • 68% recognized that target-date funds offer a diversified mix of stock and bonds. (Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market.)
  • 87% believed target-date funds involve “some risk” or more; less than 1% felt they were risk-free.
  • Only 8% of participants incorrectly believed that target-date funds provide “guaranteed income” and only 4% of participants incorrectly indicated that TDFs provide a guaranteed return or become risk-free at the target date.

© 2011 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

BMO Offers Non-Insured Lifetime Income Product

The Bank of Montreal (BMO) has launched a non-insured lifetime income product that, after a 10-year deferral period, promises lifetime payouts of 6% per year. If the contract is funded with after-tax money, the income is tax-free for the first 15 years and taxable thereafter.      

The product is called BMO Lifetime Cash Flow, and it is backed by the Toronto-based bank, which has an AA rating from DBRS Limited, an A+ rating from Standard & Poor’s and an Aa1 rating from Moody’s.  The minimum investment is $5,000, and the money is invested in mutual funds that grow more conservative over time. The all-in 2.75% annual fee is based on the account value. 

A BMO spokesperson told RIJ that, while the first 15 years of income consists of returned principal, the subsequent lifetime payouts (6% of principal) do not come out of the account value, which by then presumably contains 25 years of gains. “Payments after year 25 do not draw down on any portfolio gains or deposit value,” said Amanda Robinson. At the owner’s death, the remaining account value goes to beneficiaries.

Here are two illustrations of the just-announced Lifetime Cash Flow product (using Canadian dollars):

Jim, a 55-year-old single man, has no private pension and intends to retire in 10 years. He has $250,000 in taxable accounts and $300,000 in guaranteed investments in his Registered Retirement Savings Plan (RRSP), a tax-deferred account.

He needs $3,000 a month in retirement, half of which will come from his Canada Pension Plan (a payroll-based Social Security-like program) and his Old Age Security (a government pension based on years of residency in Canada).

To provide the other $1,500, he invests $100,000 of his after-tax savings in the BMO Lifetime Cash Flow program ($500 per month for life) and rolls his RRSP money into a Registered Retirement Income Fund (RRIF), from which he begins taking minimum required distributions ($1,000 per month).

At his death, Jim’s beneficiaries will receive the balance in his account, if any,  net of fees and withdrawals.

In the second scenario:

Ray plans to retire in 10 years, at age 70, with a defined benefit pension of $2,100 a month and $1,000 from the Canada Pension Plan and Old Age Security. His wife Abby, five years younger, never worked and so doesn’t qualify for the CPP. But she’ll get $400 a month as her Old Age Security. They have $400,000 in taxable accounts.

Their pensions will provide $3,500 a month–$700 a month shy of what they will need. To fill the gap, they invest $140,000 in Abby’s name in the BMO Lifetime Cash Flow program. They invest their remaining $260,000 elsewhere for income and growth. If Ray dies before her, Abby’s income from his pension will be reduced and his income under CPP and OAS will cease. 

A BMO spokesperson said the payouts are not adjusted for inflation, and the payouts apparently remain fixed at 6% of the initial investment even if the account value grows during the deferral period and after payments begin.  

Since 2009, BMO has offered LifeStage Retirement Income Portfolios, which are notes that pay an inflation-adjusted 6% of the initial investment for 15 years, starting immediately, or after a five-year wait, or after a 10-year wait. That product offered inflation-adjusted, but not lifetime, income. The new product offers lifetime, but not inflation-adjusted, income. 

The minimum deposit for the LifeStage Retirement Income Portfolios is $5,000. Each note costs about $100. Assets are invested in BMO’s Lifestage target-date funds. Investors can buy the notes with registered or non-registered (pre-tax or after-tax) savings, but after-tax money is recommended.

At the end of the deferral period—during which the assets are largely illiquid and the investments grow tax-deferred—the notes provide a tax-free, inflation-adjusted income of about 6% of principal per year for 15 years. The all-in annual fee is 2.75% per year.

When all principal has been paid out—i.e., the maturity date—the owner of the notes (or the beneficiary) receives the original deposit back, net of fees and payouts.  

In a typical scenario, a 55-year-old might put $100,000 in one of the notes. At age 65, he or she would receive an inflation-adjusted income starting at $6,000 per year for 15 years, tax-free, followed by reimbursement of any money left in the account. 

If the market value of the underlying investments drops too much, BMO retains the right to convert the account to a term-certain annuity. “On each business day, we will compare the Deposit Value of a version and series of LifeStage Retirement Income Notes to the annuity value of a LifeStage Retirement Income Note of the same version and series. If on any business day that Deposit Value is equal to or less than the annuity value, a “capital preservation event” will have occurred.

“This indicates that the value of the LifeStage Retirement Income Portfolio is not enough, if invested at the relevant government bond rates (or other higher rate as may be chosen by us), to pay the scheduled capital distributions during the remainder of the term and the Deposit Balance at maturity,” the information statement reads.

The BMO notes appear to resemble Barclays Bank’s Inflation-Indexed Level-Pay Notes, which were introduced last summer in the U.S., and which provide 10 years or 20 years of income backed by the bank. Like the Barclays product, the BMO notes aren’t intended to provide liquidity, although owners can try to sell them on the secondary market or back to BMO. As the product information statement says:

“A LifeStage Retirement Income Note is not designed to be repaid in full on demand at any time. Other than the regularly scheduled capital distributions that we make to you, you will not be able to withdraw the amount invested in a LifeStage Retirement Income Note until it matures. However, you may be able to sell your LifeStage Retirement Income Notes prior to maturity to BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc.,” a capital markets unit of BMO.   

Most Canadians receive the Old Age Security (maximum C$524 per month) that’s proportional to the number of years (up to 40) that a person has lived in Canada since age 18. Most also receive the Canada Pension Plan, an earnings-based benefit of up to C$934 a month. The poor are also eligible for a means-tested Guaranteed Income Supplement, and there’s an “Allowance” for spouses or partners of GIS recipients.

The BMO notes are expected to compete in Canada alongside variable annuities with living benefits, Sun Life Elite Plus, and the Desjardins Helios, the Financial Post reported.

© 2011 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

A Death in the Family, Part I

After 87 years of life, Ruth Cohen still had no time in her busy schedule for death. There were piano pieces yet to write and perform, grandchildren to fuss over, and the unfailing southern California sunshine to wake up to every morning. 

The daughter of Russian immigrants gave in—she wasn’t the type to give up—only after doctors confirmed that her lungs and kidneys were beyond repair. No longer eligible for Medicare, she went from the hospital to a hospice bed in her son’s home near LA. A few nights later, on March 27, 2010, she died.      

As of January 1, 2011, a new regulation allows Medicare to pay for “end-of-life counseling” for the elderly during their annual wellness visits. Such counseling had been cut from last spring’s health law after Sarah Palin likened it to “death panels.” Now it’s back.

Politics aside, few doubt that families should set aside time to discuss how they will cope with the foreseeable death of an aged parent. There are medical, financial, legal, emotional, and even just logistical issues to talk about, either within the family alone or with professionals.

One big question, for families and for the country, involves the tradeoff between preserving and extending life for the very old and preserving financial resources for their survivors. It’s valid, many health economists believe, to weigh the value of heroic medical care for a grandparent against, say, the value of educating a grandchild. 

Judging by one family’s recent experience—I’ve known the Cohens, whose names are changed, for over 40 years—that’s not easy. In their case, doctors couldn’t agree on Ruth’s prognosis. She improved, deteriorated, and improved. Hers sons and daughter-in-law, understandably, hoped for the best and decided to spend whatever it took much to extend her life for as long as she wanted to live. 

Neither rich nor poor

Financially, Ruth Cohen was far from rich and far from poor.  With three pianos, including a black Steinway the size of a small Mercedes, in her Southern California condo, and with an attorney son and professor daughter-in-law only a few freeway miles away, she could hardly be called indigent.

On the other hand, few financial advisors would regard her as a “prospect.” A widow for the last two decades of her life, she received about $1,000 a month from Social Security and a $392-a-month pension that her oboist husband earned as a  high school music teacher  in the 1950s, 60s, and 70s.      

She earned a bit by teaching piano and performing, but she still had a mortgage so her income fell short. Her son told me, “My wife and I gave her about $7,000 to $10,000 a year. As far as I know, she never considered buying long-term care insurance. She viewed the value of her home as her insurance and me and my wife as her backup.”

All told, her income was less than $30,000 and her home equity ranged from $200,000 to $300,000, depending on the market. Medicare and Medi-gap insurance covered the expenses when she developed lung cancer at 82. Chemotherapy drove the cancer into remission, and she went back to writing and performing both classical music and children’s music.

In fact, she became something of a local musical celebrity in her old age. That itself was a kind of redemption. A piano prodigy at age five and later a conservatory student, she abandoned her own musical studies to raise children in the Philadelphia suburbs. Scholarships helped those children attend Yale and Georgetown. It was a long, sophisticated, accomplished, difficult, middle class life.  A distinctly twentieth-century American life.

Disagreeing doctors

The last chapter of the story began, as it often does, with a simple fall, in December 2009.  Then came four months of confusion and anxiety, of conflicting diagnoses and hurried financial decisions, and finally, one cathartic night.   

(This is the end of Part I of a two-part article.)

The Bucket

AXA Equitable names pair to executive team

 AXA Equitable Life has named Nick Lane and Rino Piazzolla to its executive management team–Lane as senior vice president of Retirement Savings and Piazzolla as senior vice president of human resources.

Both will report to Mark Pearson, 52, who will become AXA Equitable’s chairman and CEO on February 11. Pearson had been CEO of AXA Japan.

Lane, 37, had served as head of AXA Group Strategy in Paris since 2008. Prior to that, he was a director of AXA Advisors, LLC and vice chairman of AXA Network, LLC, AXA Equitable’s retail broker dealer and insurance general agency, respectively. Previously, Lane was a leader in the sales and marketing practice of the strategic consulting firm McKinsey & Co. He holds a B.A. from Princeton University and an M.B.A. from Harvard Business School and served as a captain in the U.S. Marine Corps.

Piazzolla, 57, most recently was UniCredit’s head of Human Resources in Italy. Before joining UniCredit in 2005, he held various human resources management positions in the U.S. and abroad at General Electric Co., PepsiCo and S.C. Johnson Wax. He succeeds Jennifer Blevins, 53, who is retiring after nine years. 

 

FINRA arbitrators rule for retiree, to tune of $136,000 

A retired California woman won a six-figure damages award against Smith Barney (now Morgan Stanley Smith Barney) to compensate her for investment losses caused by the Wall Street firm’s recommendation that she buy preferred shares of GM stock not long before the company’s bankruptcy.    

On November 18, 2010, a Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) arbitration panel ruled that a Smith Barney advisor in Whittier, Calif., unsuitably recommended that Joanne Bohnke invest a substantial portion of her retirement savings in preferred shares of GM in 2007, not long before the auto maker’s bankruptcy. She lost three-fourths of her investment. The panel awarded her $136,000. 

 

“This Time Is Different” wins TIAA-CREF award   

Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff won the 2010 TIAA-CREF Paul A. Samuelson Award for their best-selling book, “This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly.”

Reinhart is the David Weatherstone Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and Rogoff is the Thomas D. Cabot Professor of Public Policy and Professor of Economics at Harvard.  

The Samuelson Award is given annually in recognition of an outstanding research publication containing ideas that the public and private sectors can use to maintain and improve America’s lifelong financial well being. The winner receives $10,000.

“Combing through data from 66 countries and across five continents, Reinhart and Rogoff focused on patterns of currency crashes, high and hyperinflation, government defaults on international and domestic debts, housing and equity prices, capital flows, unemployment and government revenues to demonstrate that these crises are not isolated events. Reinhart and Rogoff show how closely each of these events fit a discernible and predictable pattern through the last eight centuries,” TIAA-CREF said in a release.

The TIAA-CREF Institute presented the Samuelson award on January 7 in Denver during the annual Allied Social Science Associations annual convention.

 

Prudential Investments Launches Real Assets Mutual Fund

Prudential Investments, the mutual fund family of Prudential Financial announced the launch of the Prudential Real Assets Fund, a mutual fund that focuses on investments in real estate, metals, fuel, and other commodities.

The fund will also invest in Treasury Inflation Protected Securities as a hedge against inflation and interest rate risk.   

“Investing in real assets may also help prove beneficial if the rising U.S. deficit, coupled with reduced tax revenue, puts upward pressure on interest rates and inflation,” said a Prudential release.

“According to data from Ibbotson Associates, when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates from 1.00% to 5.25% percent between June 2004 and June 2006, real assets post-inflation returns produced average annual real returns of 9.35%, versus 4.56% for stocks or the 0.34% loss for bonds.”

The fund’s dynamic asset allocation strategy is led by Quantitative Management Associates, which manages nearly $40 billion in asset allocation strategies, including real assets.

 

Principal endorses investment principles

Principal Global Investors, the Des Moines, Iowa-based asset manager with $227.4bn (€170bn) in mostly pension fund assets under management, has become the latest “mainstream” firm to sign up to the United Nations Principles for Responsible Investment, according to responsible-investor.com.
The firm, a unit of Principal Financial, runs assets for 10 of the 25 largest pension funds in the world, says “the appropriate consideration of environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues is part of delivering superior risk adjusted returns.”
Other recent well-known asset manager signatories include Capital International, Legal & General Investment Management and T. Rowe Price.   

 

$5.3 billion sets a sales record at MassMutual Retirement

MassMutual Retirement Services Division wrote over $5.3 billion in sales in 2010, breaking the record set in 2009. Assets under management in retirement plans administered by MassMutual reached a record $50 billion or so at year-end 2010 (including First Mercantile), up 16% increase vs. year-end 2009. The division reported net cash flow of about $2 billion for the second consecutive year.

MassMutual also earned record-high satisfaction levels in numerous 2010 industry and proprietary surveys of retirement plan advisors and plan sponsors, with a plan sponsor retention level of 95%.  

According to Hugh O’Toole, senior vice president and head of sales and client management for MassMutual’s Retirement Services Division, MassMutual has seen strong growth in its core defined contribution, defined benefit and TRS segments as well as in the nonprofit, Taft-Hartley, and professional employer organization (PEO) markets.

 

Securian Retirement certified by CEFEX

For the third consecutive year, the Centre for Fiduciary Excellence awarded Securian Retirement the CEFEX certification for fiduciary due diligence regarding investment management.

The CEFEX certification is used by benefits advisors, consultants, brokers, and their clients to assess the performance, consistency, and appropriateness of investment options. “The CEFEX certification is especially important in the markets we serve,” said Bruce Shay, executive vice president, Securian Financial Group, Inc. “Some employers do not have HR and legal experts on staff to monitor plan performance.”

Securian’s retirement plans are offered through a group variable annuity contract issued by Minnesota Life Insurance Company. The Securian due diligence process is led by an in-house committee of four CFAs who also hold the Accredited Investment Fiduciary designation.

CEFEX is an independent, global assessment and certification organization providing comprehensive assessments as measures of risk and trustworthiness of investment fiduciaries. A CEFEX assessment includes reviews of an organization’s practices by an independent Accredited Investment Fiduciary Analyst (AIFA).

© 2011 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

  

Are Direct-Sold Funds a Better Value?

In a provocative new research paper, three writers, including one from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, suggest that broker-sold mutual funds tend to generate returns that are about one percentage point lower before fees than returns generated by less expensive direct-marketed mutual funds.  

Jonathan Reuter of Boston College, Diane Del Guercio of the University of Oregon and Paula Tkac of the Atlanta Fed argue that “mutual funds in broker-sold channels charge higher total fees because they need to compensate brokers for servicing investors, and earn lower before-fee returns, because they invest less in portfolio management.”

In short, they claim there’s a “tradeoff between investments in brokers and investments in portfolio management.” The study, published by the National Bureau of Economic Research and entitled “Broker Incentives and Mutual Fund Market Segmentation,” is based on mutual fund distribution data from 1996 through 2002.

The result, they say, is that direct-sold funds not only tend to be cheaper but also better-performing than broker-sold funds, leading to a significant difference in after-fee returns for investors. “This is an unintended consequence for people seeking advice,” Reuter said.

On an after-fee, risk-adjusted basis, broker-sold funds “underperform by about 2.5 percentage points,” Reuter told RIJ, citing a newer, unpublished working paper. “You’re underperforming by more than the fees. That’s the distressing thing.”

The paper also claims that some fund companies may appear to invest more in portfolio management than they actually do. “Consistent with the concern that management fees overstate investments in portfolio management, we find that the median management fee is 80 basis points, while the median subadvisory fee is only 40 basis points,” the authors said.

From a fund marketing standpoint, this makes sense, Reuter explained. Direct-sold companies cater to the informed, performance-driven, do-it-yourself investor, so they hire the best money managers. Broker-sold companies, in contrast, invest in the intermediary services that less self-reliant investors need or demand.

“Vanguard and Fidelity invest in better managers, they’re more likely to hire managers that went to more selective schools, and they get higher risk-adjusted returns,” Reuter said in an interview.

The study also found that very few mutual funds are sold both direct and through intermediaries—for the logical reason that people might not buy through a broker if they could get the exact same fund for less by buying direct.  “Only 3.3% of [fund] families serve both market segments,” the paper said. Because of this, brokers have no incentive to recommend index funds, since those funds can easily be purchased direct for less.

Direct-sold companies seem to be as good at active management as they are at indexing. “In the direct channel, the active funds and the index funds have about the same risk-adjusted performance after fees. When you compare across channels, in the broker channel, both the index and the active performance is really bad. That surprised the heck out of me,” Reuter said.

“Because actively managed funds in the direct channel have the strongest incentive to invest in portfolio management, a more powerful test of the puzzle of active management is whether index funds in the direct channel outperform actively managed funds, also in the direct channel,” the paper said.

“Within the distribution channel with the strongest incentive to invest in portfolio management, we find no evidence that index funds out- perform actively managed funds during our sample period. In contrast, when we focus on the sample of actively managed and index funds outside the direct channel, we find that index funds outperform actively managed funds by as much as 8.9 basis points” per month, the researchers wrote.

Even though their costs are high, brokers might be performing a social good by guiding certain investors into mutual funds and away from keeping their money in unproductive cash accounts, Reuter said. “Maybe it’s cheaper from a societal perspective,” he said.

© 2011 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

VA from Fidelity and MetLife marks $1 billion in sales

MetLife and Fidelity Investments have reported first year sales of more than $1 billion for the MetLife Growth and Guaranteed Income (MGGI) variable annuity, a low-cost contract distributed exclusively by Fidelity and originally manufactured by Fidelity’s own insurance company.   

MGGI is the only deferred variable annuity with a living benefit that Fidelity distributes. It allows individuals approaching or living in retirement to use a portion of their retirement assets, particularly from tax-deferred accounts, to provide a guaranteed lifetime income stream for an individual or couple. The product provides the potential for growth when markets are up, and offers downside income protection against market declines.   

MGGI is issued by MetLife and includes a built-in guaranteed withdrawal benefit for life which ensures guaranteed lifetime withdrawals of between 4% and 6% of the single premium investment, depending on the age of the client. Once established, the withdrawal percentage does not change.

MGGI simplifies the investment option selection for the customer by offering a single fund, the Fidelity VIP FundsManager 60% Portfolio, which uses an asset allocation approach to achieve exposure to multiple asset classes. This asset allocation approach provides potential for both growth and reduced volatility through diversification. MGGI is also priced lower than the industry average for deferred variable annuities with guaranteed withdrawal benefits.

© 2011 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

 

Many Americans unprepared for health expenses in old age

Nearly half (48%) of Americans ages 45-70 have no financial plans in place to protect themselves against outliving their assets and the rising cost of healthcare should they live longer than they expected, according to a Society of Actuaries (SOA) survey.

In addition, more than one-third are worried about running out of money during retirement, but only 20% plan to purchase an annuity or other form of guaranteed lifetime income to protect their assets.

At the SOA’s 2011 Living to 100 Symposium in Orlando last week, actuaries, demographers, gerontologists, biologists and researchers from around the world gathered to discuss some of the topics addressed in the survey, as well as share ideas and knowledge on aging, changes in survival rates, challenges of surviving to very high ages and the impact of long life on business and society.

“Americans, specifically the baby boomer generation – many of whom will be eligible for retirement the beginning of the new year – have not saved enough money for retirement,” said Anna Rappaport, FSA, MAAA and president of Anna Rappaport Consulting. The survey also found that 71% of respondents plan to claim Social Security before the age of 70.

In other findings, the SOA survey found that 75% of Americans ages 45-70 protect their tangible assets, such as housing, through home or renter’s insurance; however, only 19% plan to buy long-term care insurance.

The SOA’s survey findings were based upon a nationally representative online survey of 1,006 individuals, ages 45-70, and had an error rate of plus or minus 3.10 percentage points.  

© 2011 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Health spending grew less rapidly in 2009

During 2009, a year of deep recession followed by slow economic growth, national health care spending rose at its lowest rate in five decades, according to the January issue of Health Affairs magazine.   

Health spending rose only 4% in 2009 to $2.5 trillion, or $8,086 per person, down from 4.7% in 2008, according to analysts at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) Office of the Actuary in their annual report on national health spending.

But health spending grew as a percent of the gross domestic product, rising to 17.6% of GDP in 2009 from16.6% percent in 2008. It was the largest one-year increase in the 50-year history of the National Health Expenditure Accounts.

Statistical highlights for 2009 from the report:

  • Consumer out-of-pocket spending reached $299.3 billion, up 0.4%. 
  • 3.5 million people were newly enrolled in Medicaid.
  • The federal government spent 17.9% more on health care in 2009 than in 2008, absorbing 27% of the cost of the U.S. health care bill, due mainly to the infusion of funds into Medicaid from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, the “stimulus bill.”
  • Federal and state Medicaid spending: $373.9 billion, or 15% of the national health care bill of $2.49 trillion.
  • Medicare spending: $502.3 billion.
  • Medicare Advantage expenditures reached $125.3 billion, accounting for 25% of total Medicare spending, a share that has nearly doubled since 2003. 
  • Spending on hospital care: $759.1 billion, an increase of 5.1% from the previous year.
  • Spending on prescription drugs: $249.9 billion.
  • Spending for physician and clinical services: $505.9 billion.

The recession contributed to a historically low rate of growth in private health insurance spending, slower growth in consumer out-of-pocket spending, and a decline in health care providers’ investments in structures and equipment, the report showed.

The swift impact of the recession on employment and income caused health spending to decline almost immediately after GDP began to decline, rather than after a one-to-two year lag period as in previous downturns.

© 2011 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Poland mixes politics with pensions—with mixed results

Poland’s “second-pillar” pension system, a defined contribution plan, is set for a radical overhaul in 2011 under a compromise that maintains the contribution level, but slashes the amount managed privately.

Under Poland’s existing system, workers pay 19.5% of taxable income into the mandatory pensions system. Of this, 12.2% is retained by ZUS, Poland’s Social Insurance Institution, which is analogous to the Social Security program in the U.S., and 7.3% goes into pension funds (OFEs) managed by private-sector financial institutions.

In 2010, Poland’s 14.9 million second-pillar members transferred the equivalent of €707 million or $915.4 million to the OFEs. The OFEs are major players on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE), with some 36% of €55.4 billion ($71.7 billion) of net assets invested into shares at the end of 2010.

On December 30, Poland prime minister Donald Tusk announced that the government proposed to retain the 7.3% contribution, but direct only 2.3% to an OFE. The remaining 5% would be managed in newly created second-pillar individual sub-accounts by ZUS, with an annual return indexed to GDP growth and inflation.

The changes to Poland’s pensions system have been intensely debated for the best part of 2010 against an economic background of a growing government deficit and public debt.

Under EU procedures, contributions to the second pillar counted as budget expenditure. On 10 December, Tusk wrested a significant concession from the European Commission, which will now allow EU member states that instituted second-pillar pensions to offset the cost of these reforms against their budget deficit and debt.

Nevertheless, by the end of 2010, Poland’s debt was running close to 55% of GDP, the point past which cuts in pensions and other government programs will be triggered. The changed system will, the government claims, reduce state subsidies for pension payouts.

Share prices on the WSE fell sharply in response to the government’s news. The government says it will extend the OFEs’ equity investments by replacing the existing one-size-fits-all portfolios with lifecycle funds, including an aggressive, equity-weighted portfolio for younger members, although it hasn’t offered details.

The government also proposes that, as of 2012, individuals can make a voluntary, tax-deductible top-up starting at 2% of wages and rising to 4% by 2017. Meanwhile, the 5% share to be managed by ZUS will also start falling after some two years from the revised system’s start, to 3.8% by 2017.

© 2011 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Prudential’s Q-class fund shares offer fee transparency

To meet the emerging demand for fee transparency in group retirement plans, Prudential Investments, a unit of Prudential Financial, has launched Q Share class of mutual fund shares that do not charge 12b-1 service fees and have minimal “transfer agency” fees.  

“Investors should view the Q Share Class as an opportunity to have a clear accounting of the impact various fees and expenses will have on their accounts by distinguishing between recordkeeping and investment expenses,” said Michael Rosenberg, head of Prudential Investments’ Investment-Only Defined Contribution group.  

Eligible plans, including 401(k), 403(b), Keogh, Profit Sharing Pension plans and Simple IRAs, among others, can convert their current holdings in another share class of a Prudential fund to the fund’s Class Q shares.

© 2011 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

National Life Group adds income option to IUL products

The National Life Group of companies, including National Life Insurance and Life Insurance Company of the Southwest, have added a lifetime income benefit rider to their indexed universal life (IUL) products.

If the policy owner is between ages 60 and 85 and the policy has been in force for at least 15 years, and the policy has sufficient value independent of any outstanding loans, the owner can exercise the rider and receive a lifetime income stream. Insufficient policy values or outstanding policy loans may also restrict exercising the rider.

National Life Group did not return calls for comment.

© 2011 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Financial Engines to announce retirement income program

Financial Engines plans to announce its much-anticipated retirement income solution at an invitation only analyst day on Monday, January 31, 2011. The presentation will begin at 12:30pm ET, January 31. Investors and interested parties can access this presentation by visiting the Company’s investor relations website.

The Company also announced that it will host a conference call to discuss fourth quarter 2010 financial results on Tuesday, February 15, 2011 at 5:00pm ET. Hosting the call will be Jeff Maggioncalda, Chief Executive Officer and Ray Sims, Chief Financial Officer.

A press release with fourth quarter financial results will be issued after the market close that same day. The conference call can be accessed live over the phone by dialing (888) 297-8964, or for international callers (719) 325-2259.

A replay will be available one hour after the call and can be accessed by dialing (877) 870-5176 or (858) 384-5517 for international callers; the conference ID is 3773474. The replay will be available until Friday, February 18, 2011.

The call will be webcast live from the Company’s investor relations website. An archive of the webcast will be available for 30 days.

 

2010: A Truth Odyssey

As I rang in 2011, I found myself in awe of how quickly time had passed and how much things have changed. The 1968 movie “2001: A Space Odyssey” caught our fantasy as a journey into the distant future, yet here we are a decade beyond 2001 (and more than 40 years after the movie came out).

And who ever thought Dick Tracy’s two-way audio-visual watch could exist outside a comic strip, or that 3- D color TV’s would hang on walls like paintings? Transporters and holodecks can’t be far behind.

The investment profession has also been on an odyssey: a quest for truth, spurred by the recent financial crisis. The truth was easier to grasp before investing became so complicated and challenging, with quantitative easing, bank failures, the mortgage crisis, etc. The recent lessons we’ve learned about excesses and fraud, especially those of 2008, have not yet been entirely digested, yet they should certainly not be forgotten.

So in this end-of-year commentary I review some of those lessons with an eye to the truth so we can benefit from them in the future. But before I bring us back to that painful 2008 and what has happened since, let’s review the year 2010. I then discuss 2008’s lessons, and conclude with my traditional review of the longer-term history of U.S. markets over the past 85 years, the longer odyssey.

U.S. stock market performance in 2010  

We dodged a bullet in 2010. At mid-year it was looking like 2010 was going to be a big fat letdown, but the last half of the year brought a nice recovery. In the meantime, gold, a current hot topic, continued its upward progression throughout the year. Gold was less volatile than U.S. stocks.

Smaller companies returned in excess of 25%, with small-cap growth leading the way with a 33% return, while larger companies lagged with returns in the low teens. Large-cap value in particular returned 14%. It was primarily this concentration in large-value companies that caused the S&P (15%) to lag the total market (18%) in 2010.  

  • The total market (5000 stocks) returned 18%.
  • The S&P500 lagged with a 15% return.
  • Smaller companies were in favor, returning more than 20%, while large companies returned “only”13%.
  • Materials and Consumer Discretionary companies performed best, earning 35% and 30% respectively.
  • Health Care and Consumer Staples lagged with 6% and 9% returns. 

Foreign stock market performance in 2010

Now let’s turn our attention outside the US, where the total foreign market earned 17.5%, in line with the total US market’s 18%, but the Europe Australia and Far East (EAFE) index substantially lagged the total foreign market, earning only 8%.

Small-to-mid (“Smid”) cap value was in favor outside the US. However, unlike the S&P, stock selection within styles was poor. This is due to the country allocations of the EAFE. In other words, the EAFE suffered a double whammy: both style and country allocations were out of favor in 2010. The EAFE’s large value orientation was out of favor, as was its overweight in Europe-ex-UK, and its absence from Latin America.

  • The total market (20,000 stocks) earned 17.5%, more than doubling the EAFE (900 stocks) index’s 8.2% return. 
  • Small-to-mid (Smid) value was in favor, earning 30%, while large companies returned 12%. 
  • Latin America and Emerging Markets led with 40% and 28% returns, respectively.
  • Europe-ex-UK lagged with a 5% return.    

Unlearned Lessons from 2008

2008 brought us two painful lessons: the Madoff crime (see Madoff Prescription) exposed our vulnerabilities to trusted bandits, and we suffered the free-fall in value of almost every asset type as the mortgage crisis snowballed into deleveraging around the world. Madoff should have led us to heightened due diligence, but it has not. The market crash has investors concerned about “Black Swans” and searching for new portfolio constructs.

  • The Madoff Mess showed us that most due diligence is a big fat fake-out, including due diligence on traditional long-only managers.
  • Portfolio structure could be improved upon. In particular, core-satellite investing would be much better with a centric core, that is neither value nor growth, rather than a blend core that combines value and growth.
  • The average 2010 Target Date Fund (TDF) lost 25% in 2008, demonstrating that fiduciaries should take back control by setting investment objectives. So far, fiduciaries have abdicated this responsibility to fund companies, with the predictable outcome that TDFs are built for profit rather than the best interests of the participants.      

The history of the US stock and bond markets, 1925-2010

  • T-bills paid far less than inflation in 2010, earning 0.12% in a 1.21% inflationary environment. We paid the government to use their mattress. 
  • Bonds were more “efficient”, delivering more returns per unit of risk, than stocks in the first 42 years, but they have been about as efficient in the most recent 43 years. The Sharpe ratio for bonds is .60 versus .38 for stocks in the first 42 years, but the Sharpe ratio for both is about the same in the more recent 43 years.
  • The past decade has been the worst for stocks across the past eight consecutive 10-year periods.
  • Average inflation in the past 43 years has been about three times that of the previous 42 years.  
  • Long-term high grade bonds fared very well in 2010.   
  • Of the last 85 years, on an inflation-adjusted basis, the market delivered positive returns in 58 calendar years and negative returns in 27, with an average annually compounded real return of 6.8%.

Genworth Exits the VA Race

Less than three months after a celebrity hedge fund manager lashed into Genworth Financial’s CEO during a quarterly conference call, the Richmond, Va.-based company said that it will stop selling new variable annuities, group annuities, and hybrids of long-term care insurance and annuities.

The hedge fund manager, FrontPoint Partner’s Steve Eisman—a central figure in Michael Lewis’ best-selling The Big Shortcriticized CEO Mike Fraizer over Genworth’s performance and threatened to lead a proxy fight against current management if the company started making acquisitions.

In a January 6 press release, Genworth announced that it “is discontinuing new sales of retail variable annuities and group variable annuities. Genworth continues to provide fixed annuities as well as other leading offerings, including life insurance, long-term care insurance and wealth management.

“In addition, Genworth is suspending sales of one type of linked benefit offering—which combines annuities and long term care insurance—until that market develops further. The company continues to offer linked benefit products that combine life and long term care insurance.”

Genworth’s shareholders lost a lot of value in the third quarter, with some recovery since then. The stock price, which closed as high as $36.70 in early 2007, reached a post-financial crisis peak of $19.36 last April. It took a sharp dive at the end of July 2010 after a disappointing earnings report, falling by a third, to $10.59 on August 30 from $15.79 on July 29. (During August 2010, the S&P Index fell 6.6%, to 1,048 from 1,125.) Yesterday, Genworth shares closed at about $14.

Analysts’ views

Wall Street analysts weren’t surprised that Genworth was getting out of the variable annuity business, which has consolidated significantly since the financial crisis and where just four companies—Prudential, MetLife, Jackson National, and Lincoln Financial Group—account for a huge share of the individual product sales.

“They’re editing their lineup,” said Eric Berg, an insurance industry analyst at Barclays Capital. “They’re trying to focus on their areas of real competency and getting out of the businesses where they lack meaningful size and where the cost of being an expert—i.e., hedging—is becoming increasingly complex and costly. Genworth has never been a leader in the annuity business. This has always been a product that complemented but never really led their sales.”

“They had shown interest in continuing in [the variable annuity] business and had said as much in the past. But in retrospect this latest decision isn’t not particularly surprising,” said Steven Schwartz, a Raymond James analyst in Chicago. “They are not a major player in the variable annuity business, and it is a business where the big tend to get bigger.”

At the same time, annuity industry watchers weren’t surprised that Genworth would suspend sales of long-term care/fixed annuity hybrids, which can make long-term care insurance more affordable.

The aging of the Boomers is expected to drive demand for that type of product, which was not feasible until January 1, 2010, when tax laws changed. But the hybrid’s sales appeal relies on the appeal of its fixed-rate deferred annuity component, and fixed-rate annuities aren’t offering attractive rates in today’s interest rate environment.  

“The current market for [hybrids] is still relatively small,” said Cary Lakenbach, of Actuarial Strategies, Inc., in West Hartford, Connecticut. “But our market research has indicated a desire by annuity producers to enter this market.”

Recently, Genworth was also hurt by the exposure of its mortgage insurance business to real estate foreclosures in Florida. This situation was described in the firm’s most recent 10-Q statement filed with the Securities and Exchange Administration. 

Genworth was not willing to offer RIJ direct interviews with its executives about the announcement. In response to questions about the fate of Genworth’s ClearCourse 401(k) group variable annuity, company spokesman Tom Topinka sent the following message in an e-mail:

“Many factors were taken into consideration in making these decisions including which Genworth markets, distributors and products were the strongest areas for growth, profitability and reliability of earnings.  We also looked at which markets Genworth has the strongest value proposition and leadership position and finally, which markets align best with our customer and consumer needs,” Topinka wrote. 

“Variable annuities did not fit into those plans including ClearCourse,” he continued.   “That said, we continue to accept new participants to existing group plans. In addition, the terms and conditions of existing ClearCourse contracts—including add-ons—have not changed. Genworth will continue ClearCourse implementations that are ongoing with our clients.”

“The variable annuity business doesn’t really fit in with where they’ve gone since the crisis,” said Schwartz. “Due to ratings changes, they’ve shifted their sales effort to more of an insurance agent-type distribution and away from the high-end registered reps like Raymond James. That would make their distribution on the VA side very different from the rest of their business. That doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.

“As for getting away from the [LTC/annuity] combination business, I don’t understand that. They said they’re not seeing demand. I would think that they would continue in that market because of its long-term prospects. But maybe they decided to let somebody else, like Lincoln Financial, do the initial development.”

“This may be the first indication of their desire to get serious about restructuring,” Berg said. “I felt during the [third-quarter] earnings call that Mike Fraizer was not only listening to but hearing what the dissidents had to say. It doesn’t mean he would do what they wanted, but he was listening and seemed empathetic to the idea, i.e., that Genworth might be in too many businesses. Genworth has had a history of being in businesses where it lacked leadership positions, and they’ve shown a consistent insistence on remaining in those business. My hope is that they’ll change, and that they’ll edit the lineup.”

The Big Short

Steve Eisman, Genworth’s lead critic, was blunt to Fraizer at the third quarter earnings call, saying about its mortgage insurance business:

“Genworth is selling at a steep discount to both MGIC [Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corp.] and PMI [Private Mortgage Insurance], the pure-play MIs [mortgage insurance]. This is probably because this company does not meet its cost of capital in any of its businesses…”

More generally, Eisman added, “To keep going down the current road seems to me a complete waste of time.” Later, he added, “And one other thing, at the beginning of this conference call Mr. Fraizer said that they might do bolt-on acquisitions. Do not do that. Your stock is selling at less than 40% of book value. You do a bolt-on acquisitions – and I will wage a proxy battle immediately to throw you out of here.”

Eisman made an estimated $1.5 billion for a Greenwich, Conn.-based, Morgan Stanley-owned hedge fund firm, Front Point Partners, by betting against the sub-prime mortgage market in 2008. His lucrative exploits and those of others were chronicled by Michael Lewis in The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine (W.W. Norton, 2010) and described by Lewis in an interview published on The Motley Fool website.

© 2011 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Four Drawdown Methods Compared

In The Decline of the Traditional Pension, George “Sandy” Mackenzie of AARP compares and contrasts four non-insured, do-it-yourself systematic withdrawal plans. Most RIJ readers will be familiar to some extent with these four techniques, which Mackenzie describes as:

  1. Constant real withdrawals until assets are exhausted.
  2. Withdrawals set to equal a predetermined share of the account value.
  3. Withdrawals determined by remaining life expectancy.
  4. A version of Method 2 that allows for increases or reductions in the withdrawal rates when markets go up or down, respectively. 

Spoiler alert: Mackenzie, like the Vanguard CFPs whose work was cited recently in RIJ (See “A Turbit Drawdown Strategy,” December 29), likes the fourth method, because it offers the best balance of flexibility and protection against longevity risk.

To evaluate the four methods, Mackenzie proposes a hypothetical 65-year-old retiree with $500,000, half in large cap equities (assumed 9% average real return, 20.1% standard deviation) and half in long-term bonds (assumed 2.8% average real return, 10.3% standard deviation). His initial withdrawal rate is 5%, his marginal and average tax rate is 20% and he pays one percent per year in fees.

Mackenzie applies each of the four withdrawal methods to the hypothetical and uses Monte Carlo simulations to assess their abilities to provide steady lifetime income. The trade-offs quickly become apparent: Method 1 provides the most stable income but the highest risk (25%) of running out of money. Method 2 is indefinitely sustainable but carries a high variability of income.

Method 3 is sustainable but income may drop off dramatically in later years if the investor outlives his life expectancy. That leaves Method 4, which is a less rigid form of Method 2—and is probably the kind of method that common sense would dictate (at least in the absence of the sort of unexpected financial shocks that often interrupt retirement).     

“None of the four do-it-yourself phased-withdrawal strategies can consistently generate both a steady or guaranteed minimum income and a predictable final balance, which could be greater than zero if the retiree wanted to leave a bequest,” Mackenzie writes.

“If income is to be kept steady or a minimum level is guaranteed, the final balance will vary hugely,” he observes. “Rule 4 is, however, more successful than the others in avoiding the extremes of a high final balance and plummeting standard of living in later years.”

As an alternative to the four methods, Mackenzie considers the possibility that the retiree might build a ladder of zero-coupon inflation-indexed risk-free bonds that lasts 25 years and produces an annual income of about $22,700—but at the cost of a low return.

None of these methods fully solves the longevity risk problem for Mackenzie, whose book clearly favors at least partial annuitization of assets before, at, or during retirement.

“Longevity risk poses an intractable problem for a phased withdrawal strategy,” he writes. “Apart from annuities, there is no instrument that retirees or financial planners can use to hedge it, and there is no phased withdrawal strategy that can substitute for annuitization in the provision of longevity insurance.”

 Without an annuity, a retiree or advisor may have to assume, as a practical matter, either that the retiree will live to the average life expectancy or to 95. The first of those assumptions can lead to a shortage of money at the very end of life, and the second can result in unnecessary hoarding.    

©  2011 RIJ Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.