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Obama Addresses Wall Street A Year After Lehman Brothers’ Collapse

Addressing Wall Street executives, government officials and lawmakers at Federal Hall in Manhattan September 14, President Barack Obama described the reasoning behind his administration’s plans to improve the government’s regulation of the financial sector.

Here are excerpts from his speech:

“The Consumer Financial Protection Agency will have the power to ensure that consumers get information that is clear and concise, and to prevent the worst kinds of abuses. Consumers shouldn’t have to worry about loan contracts designed to be unintelligible, hidden fees attached to their mortgages, and financial penalties—whether through a credit card or debit card—that appear without warning on their statements.”

“The lack of clear rules in the past meant we had innovation of the wrong kind: the firm that could make its products look best by doing the best job of hiding the real costs won. For example, we had “teaser” rates on credit cards and mortgages that lured people in and then surprised them with big rate increases.”

“By setting ground rules, we’ll increase the kind of competition that actually provides people better and greater choices, as companies compete to offer the best product, not the one that’s most complex or confusing.”

“We’ll create an oversight council to bring together regulators from across markets to share information, to identify gaps in regulation, and to tackle issues that don’t fit neatly into an organizational chart. We’ll also require these financial firms to meet stronger capital and liquidity requirements and observe greater constraints on their risky behavior.”

“The only way to avoid a crisis of this magnitude is to ensure that large firms can’t take risks that threaten our entire financial system, and to make sure they have the resources to weather even the worst of economic storms.”

“I certainly did not run for President to bail out banks or intervene in the capital markets. But it is important to note that the very absence of common-sense regulations able to keep up with a fast-paced financial sector is what created the need for that extraordinary intervention.”

“The lack of sensible rules of the road, so often opposed by those who claim to speak for the free market, led to a rescue far more intrusive than anything any of us, Democrat or Republican, progressive or conservative, would have proposed or predicted.”

“What took place one year ago was not merely a failure of regulation or legislation; it was not merely a failure of oversight or foresight. It was a failure of responsibility that allowed Washington to become a place where problems-including structural problems in our financial system-were ignored rather than solved. It was a failure of responsibility that led homebuyers and derivative traders alike to take reckless risks they couldn’t afford. It was a collective failure of responsibility in Washington, on Wall Street, and across America that led to the near-collapse of our financial system one year ago.”

“Here on Wall Street, you have a responsibility. The reforms I’ve laid out will pass and these changes will become law. But one of the most important ways to rebuild the system stronger than before is to rebuild trust stronger than before—and you do not have to wait for a new law to do that.”

© 2009 RIJ Publishing. All rights reserved.

Sales of Indexed Annuities Soar in 2nd Qtr, Says Beacon

Apparently ignoring the legal controversy over indexed annuities, investors purchased $8.2 billion worth of those odd, structured products in the second quarter of 2009, 16% more than in the first quarter, and 20% more than in the second quarter of 2008, according to the latest Beacon Research Fixed Annuity Premium Study.

Fixed Annuity Sales by Product Type, 2Qtr 2009 (with YTD figures)
  • Book value: $14.0 billion ($33.2 billion). (These contracts pay a declared interest rate for a specific term).
  • Indexed: $8.2 billion ($15.3 billion). (Returns of these contracts are tied to the performance of an equity index).
  • Market value-adjusted: $3.5 billion ($10.0 billion). (Payouts are adjusted if the holder withdraws assets before the end of the contract).
  • Fixed income: $2.2 billion ($4.1 billion). (Immediate or deferred annuities that provide income for life and/or for a specific period).

For the entire fixed annuity market, 2009 has been a bumper year so far. On a year-to-date basis, total market sales were an estimated $62.6 billion, 39% above first half 2008. Second quarter 2009 sales were an estimated $27.8 billion, according to Beacon, which covered 410 products. Quarterly sales were 10% higher than those of second quarter 2008. but 20% below the previous quarter.

But sales were down 20% from the first quarter, when fixed annuity sales were the beneficiaries of the flight from equities and the steep yield curve, itself the result of the suppressed Fed funds rate. A steep yield curve gives fixed annuities, which are pegged to longer maturity bonds, a competitive advantage over bank certificates of deposit, which are pegged to shorter maturities.


Indexterity?

Indexed annuities, once known as equity-indexed annuities, sold a quarterly record of $8.2 billion, accounting for about 30% of all fixed annuity sales and reversing a five-quarter decline. Introduced in the late 1990s, indexed annuities characteristically consist of about 95% in bonds and about 5% equity index futures.

Indexed annuity sales boomed in the early 2000s. They appealed to investors who were willing to dip only one toe, figuratively speaking, in equity waters after the dot-com bust. Indexed annuities protect against downside loss but allow investors to participate in an equity rally.

Fixed Annuity Sales Leaders, 2Qtr 2009
By product type:

  • American National replaced MetLife as the new MVA sales leader.
  • New York Life remained first in book value and fixed income annuity sales.
  • AVIVA remained the leading indexed annuity issuer.

The five best-sellers were:

  • New York Life’s Preferred Fixed Annuity, a book value product.
  • Allianz Life’s MasterDex X, an indexed annuity.
  • New York Life’s NYL Fixed Annuity, a book value product.
  • AVIVA/American Investors Life’s Income Select Bonus, an indexed annuity.
  • Pacific Life’s Pacific Explorer, a book value product.

But indexed annuities are currently in legal limbo. The SEC has ruled that indexed annuities are not exempt from securities laws, but this summer the U.S. Court of Appeals insisted that the SEC review the ruling’s market impact.

Except for MVAs, all product types saw sales increases from second quarter 2008. Book value and fixed income annuities were up 10% and 2%, respectively. MVA sales fell 5%. Income annuity sales were up 12% quarter-to-quarter. MVAs dropped 47%, while book value products fell 27%.

Relative to first half 2008, there was double-digit growth in all product types except fixed income. MVAs were 68% ahead, book value products were up 48%, and indexed annuities advanced 22%. Fixed income sales rose 4%.


MetLife fixed sales fade

Top Fixed Annuity Products by Distribution Channel, 2Q 2009
  • New York Life’s NYL Preferred Fixed Annuity replaced NYL Fixed Annuity as the top bank channel seller.
  • The Allianz MasterDex X became the new bestseller among independent producers.
  • RiverSource Life’s Rate Bonus 1, a book value annuity, remained the leading captive agent product. (American Express advisors distribute RiverSource products.)
  • American National’s Palladium MYG annuity, an MVA product, reclaimed the lead in the independent broker-dealer channel.
  • Pacific Life’s Pacific Frontiers, also an MVA product, was the new wirehouse bestseller.
  • MetLife’s Target Maturity MVA product continued as the top product in the large/regional broker-dealer channel.In overall sales, New York Life advanced to first from second place, replacing MetLife, which fell to seventh. AVIVA USA moved up a notch into second place while Allianz Life jumped four spots third. AEGON/Transamerica advanced to fourth from fifth place.  American Equity rejoined the top 10 and came in fifth.

Asked why MetLife sales dropped to only $951 million in the second quarter from $3.63 billion in the second quarter, aMetLife spokesperson said that fixed annuities were not as attractive in the second quarter and that MetLife did not cut back on marketing the products.

“Many companies have a target level of annual sales per year,” said Judith Alexander of Beacon Research. “They may have sold most of the fixed annuities they planned to sell for all of 2009 in Q1, when the demand was there and credit spreads were wider, making the business more profitable then than it is now.”

“The downside of this approach is that your distribution can feel short-changed when you start to close the spigot, as it were. I don’t know if any of this was true in the case of MetLife, however,” she added.

© 2009 RIJ Publishing. All rights reserved.

Like Lambs to the Financial Slaughter

In the years immediately following World War II a fairly new life form rarely if ever seen in world history had emerged in America-the retired person.

Throughout human history, the question of what to do with a person who was too old or infirm to work productively in service to the community was settled very simply—you buried them, since they had probably been working, most likely in small family farms or other small trading enterprises, right up to the day of their death.

But it was the surplus value produced by the factories of the industrial revolution that let the human race imagine a future other than being tethered to a hammer or plough until their dying day. It was in 1889 that imperial Germany instituted Otto von Bismarck’s groundbreaking system of government pension payments for the few who lived to be 65 years old; in 1935, US president Franklin D Roosevelt used that same Bismarck-derived retirement age to determine when Americans could start collecting old-age assistance under the Social Security Act.

But, unlike in Europe, US Social Security was never intended to fund the entirety of a person’s retirement. Some other private savings or retirement plan would have to be initiated during a person’s worklife.

Along with the government’s old-age income support program, the increasing power of big labor, plus the factor of big industry wanting an incentive to keep skilled labor during the booming war and post-war period, led to the development of numerous private pension systems. Much like in the old movies, this would be the check that the retiree would receive along with the gold watch at the retirement party. From then on until the end of his or his spouse’s life, he would receive that same check, in that same amount (with occasional adjustments for inflation) every month; these were known as the “defined benefit”, after what the employee could count on receiving – benefit plans.

It was then, in the salad days of America’s post-war economic dominance, that a wholly new cultural avatar appeared on the land-the well-off retiree. Prior to Social Security, the elderly had been America’s poorest age cohort, living in poverty or starvation, or, as seen in 1985’s look at the trials of old age during the Great Depression, The Trip to Bountiful, forced to endure a difficult existence with less-than-welcoming children.

Soon after the passage of the Medicare old-age medical assistance bill in 1965, there began a continuing sharp decline in elderly poverty, a decline fairly unique across the nation’s age cohorts. Whole regions of the country, such as Florida and the Southwest, began to be developed and populated by retirees from the colder US northeast now with the means and other wherewithal to live independently. Cultural commentators began to speak of a new “Third Age” of American life, retirement, that, what with advances in gerontology and income support, could be perhaps as extended and fulfilling as the human race’s traditional two phases of existence, childhood and career.

But with all those 40 million elderly Americans seemingly living high off the hog by 1970, you had to know that there would be those looking to divert some of this group’s riches in their direction. As so often happens with the enforcement of the laws of unintended consequence, the process by which the elderly of the near future will be laid low and destitute started with an effort to help the elderly of the past.

Not all went swimmingly with the defined benefit pension system. Some companies were just too slothful or incompetent to run their plans properly; others just couldn’t say no when the friends of Tony Soprano came knocking and making them an offer they couldn’t refuse-namely, to not get their legs broken as long as the gumbas were allowed access to the pension money. The US Employee Retirement and Income Security Act (ERISA) was enacted into law in 1974, providing standardized rules and obligations companies must follow in order to manage most effectively their pension obligations for the benefit of their retirees.

But it was a little-noticed feature of ERISA that would turn out to have a huge effect on how retirements were financed. Americans were then authorized to establish and employ a tax advantaged investment vehicle called the Individual Retirement Account (IRA). Here they could set away funds that they, not whoever was managing their company pension, could oversee and manage in just about any way they pleased.

Up to a certain limit, monies put into an IRA were deducted from a worker’s gross taxable income, providing a very significant tax cut in those high marginal tax-rate days, and any capital gains accruing to the investments in the IRA were not subject to taxation until the worker’s retirement, when he would presumably be paying taxes at a much lower rate than during his working life.

By the late 1970s, middle-aged Americans were swooning over IRAs the same way that their children were over Tony Manero’s quiana shirt in Saturday Night Fever. They enjoyed the tax breaks of the IRA, and the chance to put their retirements in their own hands appealed to the country’s independent, cowboy spirit. Very few saw or realized what was actually happening here – that their employers, the corporations, were being taken off the hook to provide for employees’ retirement.

It was in 1978 that Congress amended the rules of the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) by adding section 401(k), taking the self-directed aspect of IRA investing a big step forward. In this, companies were authorized to offer their employees (the self-employed could do it on their own) an investment vehicle that came to be known as the 401(k). Here, employees could invest in a defined set of investment choices specified by their company, with the wages committed to the fund once again not subject to immediate taxation.

What really differentiated the 401(k) from the IRA was that, at its option, the company could match all or a part of the employee’s contribution with a contribution, called a “match”, of their own. This was the contrast to the standard, defined benefit pension plan that was still fairly common at the time; employers contributing to 401(k) and other type retirement plans were the cutting edge of America’s brave new world of retirement security, called “defined contribution” benefit plans.

Employers, both private and public, loved 401(k) defined contribution plans—they were much cheaper to administer than defined benefit plans. The latter required the continuing employment by the company of high-priced investment managers in order to ensure that the guaranteed benefit promised to the workers was earned—in contrast, all that 401(k) defined benefit plans required was the company doing an electronic funds transfer into the employee’s plan. In addition, it came to be accepted that many companies were not even offering any type of corporate financial match to the employee’s funds; just having set up a 401(k) was seen to be a commitment sufficient to the workers’ retirement security.

In 1996, economist Leslie E. Papke of Michigan State University investigated the issue of whether defined contribution 401(k) plans were replacing, not supplementing, more traditional defined benefit pension plans.

“I find that 401(k) and other DC [defined contribution] plans are substituting for terminated DB [defined benefit] plans and that offering a DC plan of any type increases the probability of a DB termination. Thus, it appears that, at the sponsor level, many of the new 401(k) plans may not be avenues for net saving but are replacements for the more traditional pension forms. Using several specifications, I estimate that a sponsor that starts with no 401(k) or other DC plan and adds a 401(k) is predicted to reduce the number of DB plans offered by at least 0.3. That is, the estimates imply that one sponsor terminates a DB plan for about every three sponsors that offer one new 401(k) plan.”

What did employees think of this phenomenon? It is important to remember that generous defined benefit pension plans were very much a product of the era of powerful US industrial and commercial labor unions, power that started to erode with the economic dislocations of the 1970s. President Ronald Reagan’s firing of the PATCO air traffic controller union workers in 1981 sent a clear signal to both labor and management as to where the US Government’s sympathies lay—sympathies that only slowly and haltingly moved back a bit towards labor during president Bill Clinton’s uneasy cohabitation with the pro-corporate Republican conservatives who took over Congress in 1994.

But it’s not like the workers’ cages weren’t gilded with a fair amount of gold. The big equity market rally that started in 1982 soon put the Dow Jones Industrial Average back over 1,000, erasing the losses of the grim bear markets of the 1970s. Self-directed investing in 401(k)s seemed to hearken back to the frontier self-sufficiency of the American psyche that conquered a continent; 100 years ago, families made soap; now they make their own investment choices. Who needed those fancy-pants pension fund managers with their hand in your pocket, especially since the then overwhelmingly accepted Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH) was saying that any average Joe could do just as well or better with a portfolio of market indexed mutual funds?

True, there were a few bumps in the road, like the six-week bear market that culminated in the crash of 1987, or the dot-com crash of 2000. Still, stocks came back from these travails; American 401(k) investors seemed to get the idea that it was in stocks’ destinies always to rally to new highs after setbacks, especially since that was the very idea that media types and books incessantly drilled into their heads. By the time of the market top in October 2007, there were estimates that Americans were holding up to US$4 trillion in equity market based 401(k) plans.

Culturally, the defined benefit pension plans that financed much of the retirement of the Depression/World War II “Greatest Generation” came to be seen by America’s 80 million baby boomers as hopelessly old fashioned and passé, their father’s Oldsmobile. With stocks up high, there was a common, almost Jungian dream that spread through the baby boomers; it was of retirement not at age 65, but at age 59 and six months, when statutory tax penalties against early withdrawals of 401(k) and other retirement plans lifted.

After that, Americans could live the life they see led by the people who sell Geritol nutritional supplements on the evening network news (because apparently no one under age 50 still watches the evening network news), active, jet-setting, athletic, with smooth, tanned faces on supple and toned bodies.

For years, Americans slaved away in their malodorous cubicles under the rule of crappy monster bosses, their only dream of liberation being that the equity appreciation in their 401(k)s would allow them to sing Johnny Paycheck’s famous “Take this Job and Shove it” on the day they became eligible for plan withdrawals.

And so were the lambs led fat and happy down into the screaming abattoir of the world financial crisis.

Julian Delasantellis is a management consultant, private investor and educator in international business in Washington State.

Read A Fate Worse than Fargo: Part 2 of a two-part essay on the dark side of Boomer retirement. Discretion is advised.

Copyright 2009 Asia Times Online (atimes.com)

 

Inflation Cushion

How can fund companies and 401(k) service providers satisfy participants’ need for an income-generating exit strategy but still keep as much money as possible from walking out the door? For many in the securities industry, that’s the $64,000 question.

So far two solutions have hit the market: the in-plan variable annuity with a guaranteed lifetime withdrawal benefit, such as Prudential’s, and managed payout balanced funds of the kind that Vanguard and Fidelity created.

Now comes PIMCO, the West Coast bond giant and unit of Allianz SE, with a new spin on the managed payout concept: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities mutual funds that pay an inflation-protected monthly income over either a 10-year or a 20-year period.

PIMCO says that its Real Income 2019 and Real Income 2029 Funds, which are “1940 Act” mutual funds that post a daily share value, are comparable to period-certain income annuities, only fully liquid. The funds are just now beginning to be rolled out to individual investors via brokers. Plan participants will hear about them later.

Thomas Streiff, PIMCO“The products will be distributed initially through the large broker dealers, which includes the four remaining wirehouses and the large independent broker dealers, as well as the banks,” said Tom Streiff, a PIMCO executive vice president who until recently worked in retirement products at UBS. “In addition to that we’ll market to 401(k) plan sponsors.”

Streiff expects the funds to suit people who leave their employer after age 59½ and who want to turn part of their savings into immediate income. The employee could leave his or her job but stay in the plan and receive checks from the recordkeeper.

That would appeal to institutional money managers who fear losing assets to a rollover IRA at a competing custodian. “Lots of plan recordkeepers are now saying, ‘We don’t want this money to walk away anymore. We would like that money to stay in the plan,’” Streiff told RIJ.

“We haven’t built the institutional product yet,” he added. “We expect the early adopters to be the retail platforms and we’ve been talking to them and they’re ready to go. But the institutional market could dwarf the retail market in short order. We haven’t built a collective trust yet but that’s not hard to do.”

“If we sell to half of the people who need income but don’t buy annuities, we’ll get $2 trillion,” Streiff said.

How they work

The funds offer a target monthly payout consisting of coupon interest, inflation-adjusted principal, and an inflation premium until depleted at their maturity date. Streiff estimated the annual payouts from a $100,000 investment to start at about $11,200  for the 2019 fund and about $6,200 for the 2029 fund.

By comparison, a person who invests $100,000 in an inflation-adjusted 10-year period certain immediate annuity from Vanguard would receive about $10,500 a year to start, according to the firm’s online calculator.  A non-inflation-adjusted ten-year payout annuity would pay a flat $11,700 or so. 

As for expenses, that depends on the share class, and ranges from 39 basis points for institutions like Charles Schwab to 49 basis points for “P-share” customers like Bank of America/Merrill Lynch or 79 basis points for “D-shares,” apparently intended for smaller advisory firms or individual advisors. Intermediaries can apply their own layer of fees, however, and that could range from zero for some fee-only advisors to a one percent management fee for others to a front-end load in the case of registered reps.

Gang Hu, PIMCOAccording to one advisor, who heard it from his PIMCO wholesaler, the wirehouses will charge a front-end load of 3.75%, 3.25%, 2.25% and 1.75% for investments of under $100,000, $100,000 to $249,999, and $250,000 to $499,999, and $500,000 to $999,999, respectively. Investments of $1 million or more will have no load.

Converting a TIPS fund into a managed payout fund required a lot of financial engineering, Streiff said. “[Real Income] looks simple from a distance, and we want it to look straightforward to the investor. But the reason why this hasn’t been done before is because it’s complicated. It’s because of how TIPS themselves work.

“We have to take the lumpy, awkward structure of TIPS—there are five years in which no TIPS mature, TIPS dividends are paid out only twice a year, and the inflation accruals are monthly—and turn it into a predictable cash flow for the investor. That’s the challenge,” he added.

“We have built a proprietary algorithm that fills the holes in the TIPS curve. You can do that with inflation swaps or derivatives, but we chose not to use any of those. We’re creating a synthetic TIP using actual TIPS in other parts of the curve. It’s possible that no one else will do this. You have to be a major player in the TIPS market,” Streiff said.

The funds are managed by PIMCO senior vice president Gang Hu, who formerly worked at Deutsche Bank and has an undergraduate degree from Tsinghua University in Beijing.

The funds don’t protect investors from longevity risk, but PIMCO suggests that investors add longevity protection by buying a deferred, life-contingent income annuity—also called an ALDA, or advanced life deferred annuity—that could provide monthly income when the TIPS income stops.

For those unfamiliar with TIPS: they pay a real yield, currently about 1.9% for a 2019 maturity, and each year the value of the underlying bond grows by the CPI rate. For example, if you invested $1,000 in a new 10-year TIPS with a 2% coupon and inflation the following year is 3%, the principal would rise in value to $1,030 and the interest payment for that year would be $20.60.

 (To read experts’ comments on the new PIMCO payout funds, see “Early Reviews of PIMCO’s Payout Funds.”

© 2009 RIJ Publishing. All rights reserved.

Retired Americans, Up Close and Personal, Via PBS

“If I let myself get into it, I can be terrified and appalled at the thin resources that a lot of people have as they get older. A lot of people have nothing. Or they have Social Security and Medicare and little else.”

So says Brian Boyer, the 70-year-old former newspaperman and current TV documentary maker who produced “Retirement Revolution: The New Reality,” a 90-minute film that PBS and WTTW-Chicago will broadcast nationwide on September 15. It is hosted by Paula Zahn and underwritten by MassMutual.

Brian BoyerIn the ten months that Boyer and his crew spent working on The New Reality—the third in a series on retirement that he has created for PBS—he interviewed more than 60 people in 18 states and two countries, shot 150 hours of videotape, and transcribed conversations amounting to about half a million words.

The result is a portrait of a cross-section of older Americans, ranging in age from about 60 to 85, who live in suburbs, cities and on farms, as they struggle with varying success with the financial and health care problems that the 77-million-member Boomer generation is about to face.

Living on a sailboat

There are triumphal stories like Will Allen, a 60-year-old former basketball player who started an urban gardening project in Milwaukee; Bill Kurtis, a retired TV journalist who raises grass-fed beef on his Red Buffalo Ranch in Kansas; and Alan Watts, an 85-year-old dentist who grows kiwis and lemons on Vashon Island, Washington.

Then there are strugglers like Tim Moffatt, a grizzled 62-year-old living alone in the Pacific Northwest on a $4,000, 30-foot sailboat, the Vasilika. Unable to work and suffering from diabetes and high blood pressure, he lives from one $715 Social Security check to another.  

Much of the film deals with health care, especially the challenges associated with Alzheimer’s disease. RIJ readers are more likely to be interested in the segments that deal with financial issues and feature commentary from retirement experts like Alicia Munnell of Boston College and Peter Diamond of MIT, as well as behavioral economists like Richard Thaler of the University of Chicago and Shlomo Benartzi of the University of California at Los Angeles.

Though it shouldn’t take a Ph.D. to remind us to save more, that’s mainly what these academics do on camera. Thaler urges viewers to “save up” for things, instead of paying with credit cards. Benartzi notes that he was perfectly happy as a student, living on one percent of his current earnings. “People underestimate their ability to adjust to spending less,” he said.

Delay Social Security

The filmmakers tackle a couple of specific financial questions: Should people postpone claiming Social Security until age 70, and is it wise to invest in gold?

Alicia Munnell, director of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, urges viewers to delay Social Security until age 70, because the annual payout is 75% larger than at age 62. The filmmakers interviewed Mary Slattery, who took Social Security at 62 but who, at age 70, paid $79,534.80 back to the government to bump up her monthly payment by $500.

But Jason Fichtner, a deputy commissioner of Social Security, doubts that many 70-year-olds have “$100,000 lying around” just to do what Slattery did. On the question of gold, the film is even less definitive. If the dollar loses value, gold—or shares in gold mining company stocks—will offer a safe haven, says financial columnist Terry Savage. But the question has no easy answer.

Overall, the film arrives at no great conclusions, other than to recommend saving as much as possible before retirement and staying as physically active as possible during retirement.  But that’s alright with Boyer,  a former investigative reporter for the Chicago Sun-Times and producer for ABC’s 20/20 TV news magazine. “No single story will change the world. I think in terms of trying to be correct, to be interesting,” he said. “I’m not a revolutionary or a crusader. I’m a working journalist.”

But in the course of shooting the film, he was struck by the evidence of deprivation and hardship among too many older Americans. “We need real strong public policies that do everything possible to get people to save more and to prudently invest,” he told RIJ. “The days of a consumer society, in which there’s no savings, and where 70% of the economy is generated by the consumer, is not going to work. People will have to be a little more cautious, a little more disciplined, and to clearly understand that there may be no one to take care of them. Where will you go when the well runs dry?”

He expects to make further installments of the Retirement Revolution series for PBS. “When we talk about people who are retired and about Baby Boomers, we’re talking about a third of the American population, about people who have effective control of two-thirds of the country’s wealth,” Boyer said.  “The fact that there haven’t been more television pieces taking a look at retirement is remarkable.”

© 2009 RIJ Publishing. All rights reserved.

Obama Announces Workplace Savings Initiatives

In an announcement last weekend, President Barack Obama told Americans, “If you work hard your whole life, you ought to have every opportunity to retire with dignity and financial security. And as a nation we ought to do all we can to ensure that folks have sensible, affordable options to save for retirement.”

To that end, the president and Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner announced four enhancements to the administration’s two existing retirement savings proposals: automatic enrollment in workplace IRAs for the 78 million workers without retirement plans and the $500 Savers Credit.  In its latest move, the administration said it would:

Expand automatic enrollment in 401(k) and SIMPLE-IRA plans. By issuing pre-approved automatic enrollment language, the IRS will allow 401(k) plan sponsors to adopt automatic enrollment more quickly, without case-by-case approval by the IRS.  Workers could dedicate part of their pay raises to savings or agree to save a higher percentage of their pay every year, while remaining free to stop the increases or opt out. 

Under automatic 401(k) plans, employers contribute a small percentage of each paycheck into workers’ retirement accounts. Employees decide whether and how much to save. Employers can match employee contributions if they wish. Automatic enrollment has been shown to boost participation in retirement plans, especially by low-income and minority workers. 

Treasury and IRS will also help interested employers automatically enroll employees in SIMPLE-IRA plans so long as employees are free to opt out. An estimated 3 to 4 million SIMPLE-IRA accounts exist, but workers are not automatically enrolled. The SIMPLE-IRA combines elements of 401(k) plans and IRAs for small businesses.

Help families save all or part of their tax refunds.  Beginning in early 2010, taxpayers can use their tax refunds to purchase U.S. savings bonds simply by checking a box on their tax return. The savings bonds would be mailed to the taxpayer. Taxpayers can purchase bonds in their own names beginning in 2010 and to add co-owners such as children or grandchildren beginning in 2011. Every year, more than 100 million U.S. families receive more than $200 billion in federal income tax refunds. 

Enable workers to convert unused vacation or leave to savings.  Treasury and the IRS issued two rulings today describing how employers can allow their employees to contribute the value of unused vacation and leave to their 401(k) plan. The rulings also allow employers to contribute these amounts to employees’ 401(k) or other plans. 

Communicate rollover options in plain language. Treasury and the IRS issued a plain-English road map for rollovers to help workers keep their savings in tax-favored retirement plans or IRAs until they retire, rather than withdraw cash earlier, subject to tax penalties. The road map explains how to roll over plan balances, the key decisions that employees must make, and the tax consequences of those decisions. In addition, the IRS has created new user-friendly web site materials to help employers select an appropriate retirement plan and to help employees understand the benefits of saving. 

The Treasury and IRS rulings and materials can be found at irs.gov/retirement.

© 2009 RIJ Publishing. All rights reserved.

It’s Spee-Ahz, By a Nose!

In a new research paper, a former U.S. Treasury official and a former World Bank economist suggest that a blend of mutual funds and income annuities is the best way to manage wealth and provide income in retirement.

Mark J. Warshawsky and Gaobo Pang put six payout methods through thousands of Monte Carlo simulations. Their findings show that, in terms of generating income and leaving a legacy, it makes sense to annuitize 25% of one’s savings at retirement.

Their detailed study, “Comparing Strategies for Retirement Wealth Management: Mutual Funds and Annuities,” appeared in the August issue of the Journal of Financial Planning. Both authors are consultants with Watson Wyatt Worldwide.

The most widely practiced decumulation technique—the 4% systematic withdrawal from mutual funds—emerges as the riskiest (in both the good and bad sense) strategy in the study. The variable annuity with a guaranteed 5% payout for life comes off as suboptimal, mainly because of high fees.

Mark J. WarshawskyPang and Warshawsky’s study tends to endorse the recommendations of many income-phase experts, including Moshe Milevsky and others, who have advocated strategies that combine income annuities with mutual funds in retirement. 

It makes sense: If risky mutual fund investments maximize returns (they do) and life annuities maximize income (they do), shouldn’t retirees divide their assets among the two in a proportion that guarantees adequate lifetime income while satisfying the need for growth?    

Ironically, several firms have offered such tools, but none of them have achieved mass-market success or received the investment in marketing support that the VA+GLWB has gotten. The VA’s advantage—perhaps a deciding one—may be that it comes in a succinct package.    

A six-way horse race

Warshawsky and Pang chose six strategies for handling a $1 million investment at age 65, and ran them through Monte Carlo simulations using thousands of different performance scenarios and several different fee and asset allocation combinations. They assumed that all of the hypothetical investors would live to age 100, and that all of their money was in qualified accounts.

“We thought we’d look at the more conventional as well as the more exotic options, so we did a horse race to see their characteristics. It took a long time for us to do this,” Warshawsky told RIJ.

Here’s (roughly) what they came up with:

  • A 4.5% SWiP from a balanced $1 million mutual fund portfolio. It paid $45,000 a year to start. Likely wealth at age 100 was about $800,000.
  • A fixed single-premium income annuity (SPIA) paying out exactly $67,700 a year, with zero liquid wealth after age 65.
  • A variable single-premium income annuity (SPIVA) paying up to $75,000 a year, depending on fees and asset allocation, with zero liquid wealth after age 65.
  • A variable annuity with a guaranteed lifetime withdrawal benefit, paying $50,000 per year, with $1 million in liquid wealth at the beginning. Likely wealth at age 100 was about $50,000.
  • A $250,000 SPIA paying about $18,000 a year and a $750,000 mutual fund portfolio with a 4.5% SWiP, paying a combined $52,000 to start. Likely wealth at age 100 was about $400,000.
  • A phased conversion of $1 million in mutual fund assets to SPIAs between age 65 and age 75, with an average income of about $69,000 and zero liquid wealth after age 75.

As these numbers show, the SWiP strategy offered the best chance of accumulating greater wealth over time but potentially the least income because of its conservative payout rate. The all-annuity strategies offered higher income but no accessible wealth after age 65 or age 75.

The two blend concepts—the mutual fund/SPIA combination and the variable annuity with a GLWB—offered compromises between those two extremes. Of the two options, the mutual fund/SPIA hybrid produces higher average income and higher likely wealth in the long run.

The issue with the GLWB, as many have pointed out, is the costs. If the fees are high enough, they create so much drag on the underlying account balance that there’s no inflation protection for the income stream and little or nothing remains as a bequest when the owner dies.

“It’s a very clever product, with interesting and desirable risk-sharing properties. But the problem is cost,” Warshawsky said.  “That was a problem when we first looked into this, and if the prices have gone up since then, it could be more of a problem.”

Warshawsky, who served as an Assistant Secretary of Treasury for Economic Policy in the George W. Bush administration, said that he and Pang were motivated to conduct the analysis by the obvious need among defined contribution plan participants for ways to convert savings to income at retirement.

“As companies move away from DB plans, something will be missing, and that’s a steady retirement income stream,” he said. “We’re not the only ones saying this. A lot of other individuals and companies believe the same.”

© 2009 RIJ Publishing. All rights reserved.

Many Nurses Need Help With Retirement Planning

Nurses appear to be taking far better care of their patients than they are their financial futures, according to a survey by the Center for American Nurses and the Women’s Institute for a Secure Retirement (WISER).

The Nurse Investor Education Survey reveals that nurses may be saving for retirement, but few are planning and investing to meet retirement needs and most say they do not know what their needs will be.

“The good news is that most nurses are putting money away for retirement,” said Wylecia Harris, executive director at the Center for American Nurses. “What’s troubling is that less than half have tried to figure out how much income they will need when they get there.”

The Center and WISER collaborated on the research as part of the Nurses’ Investor Education Project. The project, funded by a grant from the FINRA Investor Education Foundation, aims to identify and address the financial information needs of nurses.

The survey, conducted in mid-to-late 2008 with a follow-up survey in early 2009, reveals a lack of confidence among nurses about their future financial security. After the economic crisis hit, confidence eroded even further. Nearly three fourths of respondents in the second survey reported being less optimistic about their financial future compared to how they felt a year prior.

Nurses acknowledged that they do not feel they spend enough time on financial planning for retirement. The most common barriers they cited were:

  • Not enough time due to other time-consuming priorities, such as caring for children (61%)
  • Not knowing where to begin (59%)
  • Not having thought about retirement (36%)
  • Not earning enough money to save (34%)

“Only about 6% of the nurses surveyed report feeling very knowledgeable about financial investing,” explained Cindy Hounsell, President of WISER. “But most report wanting to increase their investment knowledge. The Nurses’ Investor Education Program is intended to bring actionable information to them.”

Nurses tend to distrust “outsiders” when it comes to financial information, focus groups revealed. But most survey respondents indicated they would attend a free, unbiased financial planning workshop offered by a professional nursing organization.

The Center and WISER are using the survey results and information from the focus group to create retirement planning and investing workshops, webinars, and other resources for nurses. Currently, project activities include training nurses in six states to run group workshops, publishing a quarterly financial planning newsletter for nurses, and producing podcasts on financial planning and investing.

A total of 901 nurses in 47 states and Washington, DC, responded to the initial survey. The average age of respondents was 52.5, and 95% were female. Respondents were relatively affluent, with 70% earning $75,000.00 a year or more.

The average respondent had been a nurse for 27 years. Most were employed full-time, and 76% had benefits through work. The majority worked day shifts in a variety of work settings. Forty-five percent worked in an organization with more than 1,000 employees. Two survey groups, totaling 1,250 nurses, completed a follow-up survey following the global economic crisis.

© 2009 RIJ Publishing. All rights reserved.

 

All Signs Point to an Aging Work Force

Whether or not the American work force literally gets “grayer” in the years ahead may depend on how many Boomers decide to color their hair.  

But a just-released survey, “Recession Turns the Graying Office Grayer,” leaves little doubt that the average age of America’s workers is climbing.

The survey was conducted by the Pew Research Center’s Social and Demographic Trends project. The results are based on about 1,800 interviews in July and August, and on an analysis of Labor Department data.

The trend is no mystery. Boomers are aging,  their progeny are staying in school, and the recession is forcing some people—no one knows exactly how many—to delay or contemplate delaying retirement.

People over age 55 now account for 18.7% of the labor force (a new high), while people ages 16 to 24 account for only 14% (a new low).  In 2016, those 55+ are expected to make up 22.7% of the workforce.

Since 2000, the percentage of people ages 55 to 64 who are working rose six percent, to 65.3%, while the percentage of people ages 65 and older who work jumped to 17.3% from 13%. Between 2006 and 2016, one-third of the total growth in the labor force is expected to derive from the fact that more older workers are working.

The recession will only accelerate this trend. Nearly four-in-ten adults who have worked past the median retirement age of 62 told Pew’s researchers that they delayed their retirement “because of current economic conditions.”

Sixty-three percent of those ages 50 to 61 think they may delay retirement because of the recession. Women are more nervous about it than men: 72% of women in that age group fear they will have to postpone their retirement plans, compared with 54% of men.

Just over half (51%) of retirees say they wanted to retire when they did. Many people retire involuntarily, the survey confirmed. About a third of retirees stopped working for health or other reasons, while 9% said they were forced out of their jobs. About one in six current retirees-whether they retired voluntarily or not-work full-time or part-time.

Not surprisingly, the happiest retirees are those who stop working voluntarily, the survey showed. They are more than twice as likely (75% vs. 30%) as “reluctant” retirees to be “very satisfied” with their retirement, and only four percent were unhappy with their retirement.

© 2009 RIJ Publishing. All rights reserved.

Even a Mild Windfall, Apparently, Can Kill You

Could monthly annuity payments be a health hazard?

Two economists have documented an increase in fatal heart attacks, strokes and traffic accidents shortly after the receipt of money, such as monthly Social Security checks, regular wage payments for military personnel, the dividends Alaskans receive from oil exploitation in their state, and even the 2001 tax rebates.

In two new working papers for the National Bureau of Economic Research, economists Timothy J. Moore of the University of Maryland and William N. Evans of Notre Dame demonstrate a “within-month mortality cycle where deaths decline before the first day of the month and then spike after the first.”

“This cycle is present across a wide variety of causes and demographic groups,” they write. “The mortality cycle may be due to short-term variation in levels of activity. We provide evidence that the within-month activity cycle is generated by liquidity.”

“Many studies find that households increase their consumption after the receipt of expected income payments,” the economists asserted. “Consumption can increase adverse health events, such as traffic accidents, heart attacks and strokes . . . The increase in short-run mortality is large, potentially eliminating some of the protective benefits of additional income.”

© 2009 RIJ Publishing. All rights reserved.

 

Forgetful Elderly Should Own Income Annuities: Harvard Study

An authority on behavioral economics at Harvard has found that the rate of dementia among Americans “explodes” after age 60, doubling every five years to more than 30% of the population over age 85, Pensions and Investments magazine has reported.

And even adults without dementia experience “substantial cognitive impairment,” making it difficult for them to manage their portfolios. Analytic cognitive function, according to the research, falls by about one percentile per year after age 20.

Nearly half of the population between 80 and 89 has dementia or cognitive impairment, according to a forthcoming paper, “The Age of Reason: Financial Decisions over the Life-Cycle with Implications for Regulation,” by Harvard professor David Laibson.

“This is a huge problem, and we’re really doing nothing to prepare for the large number of wealthy Americans nearing retirement,” Laibson told P&I. “In fact, we’ve really gone the opposite way, by encouraging and liberating people to take care of their own finances.”

Mandatory annuitization could help solve the problem, he said. “The vast majority of data says 30% to 40% of an individual’s portfolio should be put in a reasonably priced fixed-income annuity,” he said, adding that the U.S. should study the mandatory annuitization system in the U.K. “The issue is to make sure the financial services industry doesn’t come up with solutions that are too costly.”

According to the paper, the degeneration of a person’s cognitive function can lead to poor financial decision-making. For example, research showed that middle-age adults tend to borrow at lower interest rates and pay fewer fees relative to investors who are either younger or older.

Younger borrowers tend to have high analytic function but little experience, while older borrowers have lots of experience but lower levels of analytic function, the report noted. Averaging across 10 credit markets, fee and interest rate payments are at their lowest among investors around age 53.

While the new research highlights the inability of older adults to make financial decisions, one financial consultant says most adults have difficulties managing their retirement portfolios. “People don’t know what to do with their money in general,” he said. “It may get worse the older you get, but really this is a problem for all workers.”

© 2009 RIJ Publishing. All rights reserved.

Innovative Two-Stage Income Annuity Proposed

Hartford-based PHL Variable Insurance Company has filed a prospectus with the Securities & Exchange Commission for an income annuity that delivers income in two stages: a variable income in “early retirement” and a fixed income in “late retirement.”

Under the terms of the Phoenix Retirement Income Options contract, which has no confirmed date of availability to the public, a contract owner (or joint owners) would invest at least $25,000 in non-qualified money between ages 60 and 90 and then select an “early retirement” period lasting at least 10 years.

At the end of the early retirement period, if still living, the owner or owners would have a one-year window to take the commuted value of their contract in a lump sum or to convert the contract to a fixed income annuity.

Insurance companies are typically not allowed to comment on a new offering until the SEC has approved the prospectus.

The Retirement Income Options contract has a number of unusual features. Prospects are urged not to invest more than 15% of their wealth in the contract. During the variable income period, the contract is life-contingent; during the fixed income period, the contract pays a death benefit. During the variable period, the contract owner can defer unneeded income to the fixed period.

According to the filed prospectus:

  • The annuity payments in the early retirement phase are designed to be very small initially, but are also designed to increase each year.
  • Annuity payments in the later retirement phase are designed to be level and significantly larger than those in the early retirement phase.
  • The contract provides an ability to defer each early retirement phase annuity payment, or a portion of such payment until the later retirement phase-“when the owner is expected to have fewer sources of available income and higher expenses and therefore a greater need for larger retirement income payments.”
  • The annual mortality and expense risk fee is 1.25% and the fund expense ratios range from 32 basis points to 61 basis points.

 

The AIR, or assumed interest rate, of the variable income annuity during the early retirement period is set at 4.5%. If the underlying assets appreciate at an annual rate of more than 4.5%, the next income payment will be larger than the initial payment. If the assets appreciate at a lower rate, the next income payment will be smaller than the initial payment.

© 2009 RIJ Publishing. All rights reserved.

 

A Few New Names on Annuity ‘Leaderboard’

With $13.3 billion in fixed and variable annuity sales in the first half of 2009, MetLife is on pace not only to repeat as the top U.S. seller of annuities but also to exceed its 2008 sales of just under $20 billion, according to LIMRA sales rankings

Meanwhile, total first half annuity sales of AIG life insurers, ING and Hartford Life lag far behind their 2008 sales rate.

Since the end of 2008, Sun Life, American Equity Investment Life and MassMutual have joined the list of the top 20 annuity sellers, while Genworth Financial, Principal Financial, and Allstate have slipped off.  

MetLife, with its balance of both variable and fixed annuity sales, has seen its market share jump to 10.5% of all annuity sales in the first half of 2009 from 7.5% of all annuity sales for all of 2008. The company attributes at least part of that to a “flight to quality” from carriers seen as less financially strong.

More dramatically, MetLife’s combined sales as of June 30, at $13.3 billion, were nearly double the next biggest seller, New York Life, at $7.12 billion. Only about $525 million of New York Life’s sales were in variable annuities.

“Whether or not we can maintain that market share will be dependent on what happens to others in the market,” MetLife CEO C. Robert Henrikson told analysts in a recent earnings call. He cited bank channel sales of the company’s new Simple Solutions variable annuity as a bright spot going forward.

“The variable annuity business is something that is easier to love if you are well diversified and have multiple sources of earnings and you can spread your risk.  That is also under the assumption that you are properly designing and pricing your products in the variable annuity business. We are very comfortable with the way we manage our variable annuity business,” Henrikson said.

In fixed annuity sales, Symetra Financial, USAA Life and American National Life joined the top 20 list since the end of 2008, while Protective Life, Midland National Life and Old Mutual Financial Network slipped off.  In variable annuity sales, Thrivent Financial for Lutherans joined the top 20 and Genworth Financial left it. 

© 2009 RIJ Publishing. All rights reserved.

Despite Crisis, Total Annuity Sales Lag By Just 3%

Higher fixed annuity sales offset lower variable annuity sales in the first half of 2009, so that total combined annuity sales were only three percent lower than in the first half of 2008, according to LIMRA’s U.S. individual annuities quarterly sales estimates.

Total quarterly individual annuity sales dropped to $60.5 billion in the second quarter, down 9% from the first quarter of 2009 and 11% below the second quarter of 2008, LIMRA reported.

In the first six months of this year, individual annuity sales totaled $126.8 billion. Year-to-date, fixed annuity sales rose 39% to $64.2 billion while variable annuity (VA) sales fell 26% to $62.6 billion, as compared to the first six months of 2008.

The top trends were: a “flight to quality” from weaker to stronger insurers, a relative recovery of variable annuity sales in the second quarter, and a slight decline in fixed annuity sales in the second quarter.

“Second quarter fixed sales fell quarter-over-quarter due to a decline in fixed annuity interest rates and their corresponding spreads in addition to annuity companies pulling back on issuing new business due to capital constraints,” said Joe Montminy, research director for LIMRA’s annuity research, in a release.

“You had a flight to fixed in the first quarter, but that started reversing itself in second quarter,” added Dan Beatrice, a senior analyst at LIMRA. “By the middle of the year, fixed sales were dropping off considerably and VA sales picked up.  The equity markets have improved, and the spread has shrunk for fixed annuities.”

The volume of 1035 exchanges has dropped sharply, mainly because so many contract owners have in-the-money lifetime income riders and have little or no incentive to replace them with new contracts.

“We know anecdotally that there’s a tremendous reduction in exchange activity. That’s always been a challenging figure to quantify,” Beatrice said.  “We know from the data we collect on persistency, and from speaking to people in the industry, that surrender rates have gone down,” said Dan Beatrice, a senior analyst at LIMRA. But he did not have net new sales figures.

Almost 90% of purchasers of new variable annuity contracts are electing living benefits and almost 60% are electing guaranteed lifetime income riders, suggesting that the financial crisis has not made those riders less attractive to investors.  

“Despite the fact that there’s been tinkering with the riders, they’re still being elected. Almost 90% of the new contract owners are taking the riders. We can’t speculate on exactly why that is, but the drawback in the rider benefits hasn’t hurt the rate of election.  

VA sales reached $31.9 billion in the second quarter and experienced a shift when compared to first quarter results, increasing 4%. This was the first improvement in quarter-over-prior quarter VA sales since the second quarter of 2008. However, VA sales declined 24% when compared to the second quarter of 2008.

Second quarter fixed annuities sales hit $28.6 billion, down 20% from the first quarter of 2009 but 11% higher than the second quarter of 2008. Fixed annuity sales have not declined on a quarter-over-quarter basis since the first quarter of 2007.

Sales of book value products fell 25% from last quarter but improved 17% from one year ago, recording a 53% growth year-to-date. MVA annuity sales were cut in half compare to the first quarter of 2009 and were down 6% compared to the same quarter last year but still increased 76% in the first half of 2009.

Indexed annuities experienced 14% growth for the quarter, resulting in a record high of $8.1 billion in sales, which propelled year-to-date indexed annuity sales up 20% to $15.2 billion.

© 2009 RIJ Publishing. All rights reserved.

What I read at the beach in August, and how I almost appeared on Fox News

My beach book this summer was Boomsday, Christopher Buckley’s 2006 comic novel about a presidential candidate who proposes that Baby Boomers save Social Security by agreeing to commit suicide at age 70.

The candidate’s modest legislative proposal soon becomes sweetened—larded, actually—with pre- and posthumous tax breaks for any Boomer who opts for so-called “Voluntary Transitioning.”

This death-to-Boomers idea starts as a political stunt but then takes on a life of its own. It originates with Cassandra Devine, a 20-something PR executive/political operative/blogger who urges her peers to shrug off the burden of supporting retired Boomers through ever-higher Social Security taxes. She’s also the fiancée of the candidate, a preppie Massachusetts politico.

Only one other novel, as far as I now, has been written about euthanizing old people to cut society’s expenses. That’s The Fixed Period, Anthony Trollope’s 1882 satire about an island where the law requires 67-year-olds to be pampered for a year and then iced.

Given Boomsday‘s pertinence to the annuity industry, it’s odd that the book never came up in conversation at any of the conferences I’ve attended since it was published. The author—son of famed sesquipedalianist William F. Buckley—would even have made a lively keynote speaker.

Besides the candidate and Ms. Devine, Boomsday‘s characters include a Right-to-Life nursing home tycoon and a potty-mouthed incumbent president named Peachem. The villain is the billionaire inventor of RIP-Ware, an actuarial algorithm that predicts exactly when people will die.

Boomsday offers good light reading for aficionados of political—and, in this case, actuarial—satire. I also recommend another Buckley novel, Thank you for Smoking. Until the National Review ousted him for endorsing Obama last fall, Buckley was one of those few ambidextrous public figures—Ben Stein and Arlen Specter come to mind—with both liberal and conservative followers.

Interestingly, Boomsday anticipates the 2008 financial crisis. It depicts an America suffering from six consecutive quarters of negative growth, where the U.S. Treasury is “furiously” printing dollars, and where a $1.1 trillion deficit is predicted. The only thing Buckley gets wrong is the monetary policy. In Boomsday, the Fed has hiked interest rates to 14%.

*       *       *

One afternoon last week, I was staring into a browser window when the phone rang with a proposal just as strange as the one in Boomsday. A booker for Fox News asked if I could appear on a live broadcast that evening. The topic: the failings of FINRA, the security industry’s self-regulatory arm.

A Fox producer had Google-searched “FINRA” and found a column of mine called, “Heckuva Job, FINRA.” It expressed my humble opinion that self-regulation was more or less a contradiction in terms, and that Obama was wrong to nominate then-FINRA chief Mary Schapiro to lead the Securities & Exchange Commission.

Schapiro’s offense, my column noted, was that, as reported in the January 29, 2009 edition of The Wall Street Journal, she earned $2.75 million a year at FINRA and left with a lump-sum payout from FINRA’s retirement plan worth $5 million to $25 million.

FINRA, of course, is financed by the securities industry. And, like other writers whose similarly angry reactions lit up multiple sites on the Internet, I wondered how Schapiro could credibly regulate an industry that was, and would always be, her benefactor.

Now, eight months later, Fox News was on the case, and wanted me to resume my tirade in front of a much larger audience. My powdered image, probably looking and sounding nothing like the face I shave in the morning, would appear on TV sets in hospital waiting rooms across America at 7 p.m. that evening.

To make a short story shorter, my image never made it to those waiting rooms. Before Fox would dispatch a limo to chauffer me from my Pennsylvania home to its New York studio, a producer needed to vet me. In honesty, I told him that I had more outrage than expertise when it came FINRA or Ms. Schapiro. To his credit, he decided to pass.

I went back to my browser to finish an article on second-quarter annuity sales. At seven that evening, for the first time ever, I watched an entire hour of Fox News and its many commercial interruptions. Nothing appeared about FINRA or Mary Schapiro. Perhaps the story was delayed and was broadcast later. If you saw it, please let me know. I’d like to see who replaced me.

 

Now We Are 6: Prudential’s HD7 VA is Now HD6

Prudential Annuities, a unit of Prudential Financial, Inc. has reduced the annual “roll-up” of the guaranteed income base (Protected Withdrawal Value) of its Highest Daily Lifetime Plus variable annuity from seven percent to six percent.

The insurer’s action corresponds to the “de-risking” measures that other issuers of variable annuity guaranteed lifetime income riders have taken since the financial crisis last year to make their living benefits less rich and easier to hedge.

Prudential’s Highest Daily Lifetime 6 Plus variable annuity—like the HD5 and HD7 versions that preceded it—is unusual. Every day during the accumulation period the contract’s Protected Withdrawal Value (PWV) increases at an annualized rate of six percent or by the amount the account value has increased, whichever is larger.

As a result, the guaranteed amount is never lower than the account value, as it can be in VA contracts where the guaranteed amount “steps up” to the account value only on specific dates, such as contract anniversaries.

The PWV is the notional amount on which the contract owner’s annual payouts (at a rate of 4% to 6% per year, depending on the owner’s age when income starts) are based during the annuity’s income phase. Unless the owner takes withdrawals from the contract, the PWV can never be lower than the purchase premium, even if poor market performance drives down the account value.

The HD6 guarantee doesn’t necessarily mean that the PWV will always equal the high water market of the S&P 500 Index; it will simply never be less than the highest account value. If the equity market goes down sharply, Prudential automatically moves account assets to an investment grade bond account, so that the allocation becomes more conservative.

That process, called dynamic rebalancing, dampens returns on the upside but buffers losses on the downside. According to Prudential, dynamic rebalancing reduced the Highest Daily Lifetime Plus contract owners’ average paper losses during the crisis to less than 20%, compared to the losses of 30% or more suffered by many VA portfolios.

Of those who bought Prudential variable annuities in the second quarter of 2009, 90% elected a living benefit rider with either single or joint coverage, the company said. Total account values of Prudential VA contracts with guaranteed withdrawal benefits at mid-year 2009 for life were $23.2 billion.

To help investors learn more about its products, Prudential Annuities also announced a new website, www.retirementredzone.com/protect, which features a seven-minute educational video, simple navigation, and consumer-friendly language about HD Lifetime 6 Plus.

© 2009 RIJ Publishing. All rights reserved.

 

How America Can Cut Its Medical Bills By $1 Trillion

If Americans became as healthy and long-lived as Europeans have become, the U.S. could cut its health care bill by up to $1.1 trillion during the first half of the 21st century, according to a new paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research.

The NBER paper, “International Differences in Longevity and Health and Their Economic Consequences,” was produced by five analysts at the RAND Corporation in Santa Monica, Calif.

As recently as 1975, the paper said, 50-year-olds in the U.S. had about the same life expectancy as Europeans: just over 27 years. Since then, however, the life expectancy of European 50-year-olds has grown to 32.5 years, but is only 31 years for American 50-year-olds.

“A difference of 1.5 years in life expectancy implies a non-trivial welfare loss,” the paper said. “For example, using $100,000 as a lower-bound estimate of the value of a statistical life year, this represents at least a $700 million dollar disadvantage for the current generation of 50-year -olds.”

Among those between ages 50 and 55, the researchers found, Americans are about twice as likely to have high blood pressure, twice as likely to be obese, and twice as likely to have diabetes as Europeans. Although Europeans are more likely to be current smokers, 50-something Americans are nearly 50% more likely to have ever smoked.

If Americans became healthier, they would live longer, and the over-50 population in 2050 would be about 4.75 million larger. Social Security payouts in that year would be an estimated $70.4 billion higher, but medical costs would fall by $124 billion and Medicare would save a projected $36.4 billion, the RAND study claimed.

Based on those figures, the present value of the savings for Medicare and Medicaid between 2004 and 2050 would be $1.1 trillion, the researchers concluded.

© 2009 RIJ Publishing. All rights reserved.

What Affluent Investors Want

“Affluent investors demand trustworthiness, ethical business standards, and financial strength,” said Kristina Terzieva, Phoenix Product Manager for the semi-annual Phoenix Retirement Services Study. “Firms must also make it easy for investors to manage their retirement portfolios and demonstrate that they care about their customers,” she added.

The research shows “what affluent investors consider to be effective advertising,” “how they evaluate financial services firms offering retirement products and services,” and their “likelihood to start a new relationship with any of 72 brands covered by Phoenix.”

Most Important Brand Characteristic Sought By Affluent Investors

About 30 ads were reviewed by 757 affluent investors in the study. Affluent investors were defined as those over $100,000 in investable household assets outside of retirement plans, and household income over $100,000.

In describing themselves, over half of the affluent investors view their household as financially worse-off now than a year ago and two-thirds anticipate no improvement in their financial situation for at least one year. To gauge the relative health of the U.S. economy, one-third of investors rely on market averages and one-quarter track the unemployment rate.

Affluent investors reported that within 30 days they intended to meet with a financial advisor, invest more in mutual funds rather than individual securities, allocate more money to certificates of deposit, and diversify accounts among multiple firms to maximize FDIC insurance coverage.

Just over one-third of the 757 affluent investors said they make their own retirement decisions, and only 10% said they rely on a financial advisor for all decisions. The remaining 55% either rely on advisors for specialized needs or consult an advisor but make their own final retirement planning decisions.  

© 2009 RIJ Publishing. All rights reserved.

Comment: Bernanke Paints Crisis as a ‘Classic Panic’

In a speech last Friday in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Federal Reserve chairman Ben S. Bernanke went out of his way to describe the financial crisis in terms that didn’t blame anyone in particular for causing it.

In telling attendees at the Fed’s Annual Economic Symposium that the crisis devolved into a “classic panic,” he didn’t suggest that sheer recklessness and a lack of fiduciary responsibility might have created the conditions for the panic.

Instead, Bernanke described the crisis in clinical central banking jargon, rather than telling the blunt truth: that Lehman Brothers and others failed in 2008 partly because they played a lucrative but dangerous game that involved not keeping a reasonable amount of cash on hand for emergencies. The Fed chairman used more formal language to describe, or perhaps to obscure, the situation.

“Many financial institutions,” he explained, “Notably including the independent investment banks, financed a portion of their assets through short-term repo agreements. In repo agreements, the asset being financed serves as collateral for the loan, and the maximum amount of the loan is the current assessed value of the collateral less a haircut. In a crisis, haircuts typically rise as short-term lenders attempt to protect themselves from possible declines in asset prices.

“But this individually rational behavior can set off a run-like dynamic: As high haircuts make financing portfolios more difficult, some borrowers may have no option but to sell assets into illiquid markets. These forced sales drive down asset prices, increase volatility, and weaken the financial positions of all holders of similar assets, which in turn increases the risks borne by repo lenders and thus the haircuts they demand,” he said.

“A panic is possible in any situation in which longer-term, illiquid assets are financed by short-term, liquid liabilities, and in which suppliers of short-term funding either lose confidence in the borrower or become worried that other short-term lenders may lose confidence,” he said, as though describing the progression of a tornado or an avalanche, instead of a wholly man-made disaster. 

“Although, in a certain sense, a panic may be collectively irrational, it may be entirely rational at the individual level, as each market participant has a strong incentive to be among the first to the exit,” the chairman mused.

Bernanke suggested regulatory reforms. “In the future, a more system-wide or macro-prudential approach to regulation is needed,” he said, as opposed to the fragmented regulatory system in the U.S. that spends its energy detecting small-time fraud while allowing enormous but legal abuses of the spirit of the law.

“The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision and the U.S. bank regulatory agencies have recently issued guidelines for strengthening liquidity risk management at financial institutions,” Bernanke said in reference to the banks’ failure to hold enough cash or cash equivalents.

“Among other objectives, liquidity guidelines must take into account the risks that inadequate liquidity planning by major financial firms pose for the broader financial system, and they must ensure that these firms do not become excessively reliant on liquidity support from the central bank,” he added.

More coordinated or “macro-prudential” regulation is also needed to prevent the failure of one or two big banks from pulling down all the others, Bernanke said.  

“The hallmark of a macro-prudential approach is its emphasis on the interdependencies among firms and markets that have the potential to undermine the stability of the financial system, including the linkages that arise through short-term funding markets and other counterparty relationships, such as over-the-counter derivatives contracts. A comprehensive regulatory approach must examine those interdependencies as well as the financial conditions of individual firms in isolation,” he said.

Bernanke’s story had an exuberant ending. “The use of Fed liquidity facilities has declined sharply since the beginning of the year—a clear market signal that liquidity pressures are easing and market conditions are normalizing… After contracting sharply over the past year, economic activity appears to be leveling out, both in the United States and abroad, and the prospects for a return to growth in the near-term appear good.”

But not irrationally exuberant. “Notwithstanding this noteworthy progress, critical challenges remain: Strains persist in many financial markets across the globe, financial institutions face significant additional losses, and many businesses and households continue to experience considerable difficulty gaining access to credit,” he noted. “Because of these and other factors, the economic recovery is likely to be relatively slow at first, with unemployment declining only gradually from high levels.”

Such is the art of “talking to the markets.” It would have been refreshing to hear Bernanke say, as President Obama blurted out about the Cambridge police officer who arrested a famous professor in his own home, that leading bankers had acted “stupidly,” and that such activities won’t be tolerated in the future. 

© 2009 RIJ Publishing. All rights reserved.


 

Sun Life Launches “De-Risked” Living Benefit Riders

Sun Life Financial, the Massachusetts-based U.S. unit of Sun Life of Canada, has introduced a new Masters Extra variable annuity contract with two new living benefits that are “de-risked” versions of more generous riders that are no longer for sale to new contract owners. The riders became available August 17.

The riders are Sun Income Riser, which replaces Retirement Income Escalator II, and Income ON Demand III Escalator, a new version of Sun Life’s Income ON Demand line of flexible-payout lifetime income benefits. The company has also phased out a guaranteed minimum accumulation benefit rider called Retirement Asset Protector.

Maximum fees for the new riders are higher (110 bps for single coverage and 130 bps for joint) than in the past (the maximum was 100 bps). The mortality and expense risk charge for the base contract is 1.40%, plus a 0.15% administration charge and a 0.15% distribution charge.

The age-bands at which contract owners qualify for a higher annual payout rate are higher. For instance, the youngest policyholder has to be 80 years old to qualify for a 6% payout, up from age 75, and the 7% payout has been eliminated.

Clients who opt for the Sun Income Riser are eligible for an annual 6% roll-up in the guaranteed income base for every year during the first 10 years when they do not take a withdrawal from the contract. A new 10-year period starts every time the client opts for the step-up. This rider pays out a level income in retirement.

The Income On Demand rider is tailored for clients who want a flexible income. It allows clients to carry over their unspent annual payout from year to year during retirement. Clients who choose this rider are also eligible for either a 5% bonus on purchase payments made in the contract’s first year or, alternately, a bonus of 2% of the account value on every fifth anniversary of the contract.

The contract has a seven-year surrender period starting at 8%, but allows free annual withdrawals of up to 10% of purchase payments made in the previous seven years. To qualify for step-ups, assets have to be invested in certain designated funds or, if they wish, contract owners can build their own portfolios according to certain guidelines.

The designated funds include SC Ibbotson Growth, Balanced, and Moderate Funds; the Fidelity 2015 and 2020 target-date funds; the Fidelity Balanced Portfolio; the MFS Total Return Portfolio; the PIMCO Global Multi-Asset Portfolio; the AllianceBernstein Balanced Wealth Strategy Fund; the Equity and Income Portfolio from Universal Institutional Funds Inc.; and the BlackRock Global Allocation V.I.

“The PIMCO VIT Global Multi-Asset Portfolio has never offered before as a variable annuity investment option before,” Sun Life said. The diversified portfolio, co-managed by PIMCO CEO and Co-Chief Investment Officer Mohamed A. El-Erian, holds global equities and bonds, commodities, real estate, derivatives and other variable insurance product funds (including other PIMCO funds).

© 2009 RIJ Publishing. All rights reserved.