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Larry Kotlikoff to Receive RIIA’s Academic Achievement Award

Laurence J. Kotlikoff is a Harvard-trained economist who teaches at Boston University, advises policymakers, has written scholarly and popular books, created the well-known ESPlanner software, and has developed a rational approach to personal finance that he calls “consumption smoothing.”

In recognition of those efforts, he will receive an Academic Achievement Award for Achievement in Applied Retirement Research at the Retirement Income Industry Association’s third annual meeting in Boston October 6. The award is sponsored by Research magazine.

The gist of Kotlikoff’s consumption smoothing idea is that a person’s main financial challenge is to maintain roughly the same level of discretionary income throughout life, including retirement. It’s the theme of Spend Til the End (Simon & Schuster, 2008), a personal finance book he wrote with columnist Scott Burns.

Last week Kotlikoff spoke briefly with RIJ. We asked him if there is a dominant thread that runs through his academic, popular, and public service work.

If there’s one theme, he said, “It’s being true to the science of economics, and to what we as economics have to say as a profession. That means trying to be consistent with what 100 years of research by economists has shown makes sense, both physiologically and logically.”

“I say physiologically, because humans aren’t built to consume everything every day. We get satiated. That’s why Scott and I developed the concept of consumption smoothing. We’re saying, ‘You don’t have to consume the maximum every minute.’”

Applying that philosophy to personal financial planning, however, requires more training that most people have, he said.

“I’ve come around to the view that personal economic problems are too complicated for people to figure out on their own with the tools they’re using. So economists need to provide economic prescriptions. Unfortunately, economics are interested in studying the pathology. That’s a tragic thing for us as a profession. We sit back and study people’s behavior and decide that their actions are impaired. We observe that people aren’t doing what our models say they should do.

“But, the fact is, nobody can do those things on his or her own. They’re far too complicated. So we need to think about economics the way we think about medicine. Instead of just studying the pathologies, we have to prescribe solutions. That’s why I developed ESPlanner software, which helps planners and individuals smooth their consumption.”

He agrees with RIIA’s philosophy of “first build a floor and then create upside.” In other words, lock in a reliable retirement income stream before retirement, and take risks, if necessary, with the savings left over.

“Building a floor is the way people should go. If you decide to build a floor, and then you look at Monte Carlo simulations of the outcomes of that strategy, you’ll see that there will much less variability in your future living standard. There might be less upside if you invest in things like TIPS, but there’s also much less downside.”

Kotlikoff has strong opinions about the financial services industry.

“When you’re saving for retirement, the financial services industry tells you that you need to plan on having an income equal to 70% to 80% of your current income in order to maintain your lifestyle in retirement. In other words, they tell people that they’ll need to spend the same amount, year in and year out. It’s set high so that you’ll save and invest more.”

“Then when you hit retirement, they give you the 4% spending rule. It’s set very low so that you’ll leave more money with your financial planner. But there’s no consistency between those two pieces of advice. There are lots of honest people in the financial services industry. But the industry is unfortunately full of highly paid con artists.”

By the time you read this, Kotlikoff will have sent his latest manuscript off to his publisher, John Wiley & Sons. It’s about “how economies evolve through time” and offers straightforward solutions to the big fiscal and monetary problems that the U.S. faces. It’s titled, “Jimmy Stewart is Dead.”

© 2009 RIJ Publishing. All rights reserved.

 

Participants Want Income Strategy Advice, TIAA-CREF Survey Shows

Investors approaching retirement are focused on assuring an income that can maintain their standard of living, a recent TIAA-CREF Institute survey of 1,002 plan participants in higher education shows.  

  • Within the past two years, 60% of respondents have sought out objective retirement planning advice;
  • 87 % of respondents said that advice regarding strategies for drawing income to live on in retirement is important to them; and
  • 86 % also said that advice regarding paying for healthcare in retirement is important to them.
  • Of the 24 % who changed the amount they are saving for retirement due to developments in the financial markets, 61 % increased their savings.
  • Nearly all colleges and universities continued to contribute to sponsored defined contribution plans; of the 4 % that made a change, 73 % decreased the contribution amount.
  • 85 % of those who have consulted with a financial advisor within the past two years feel that the advice was independent and objective and 69% typically implement the recommendations received.
  • The top reasons cited for seeking advice included: How to invest their savings (89%);  How much they should be saving (60%); Once retired, how to draw income to live on from savings (50%).

Two-thirds of those surveyed expressed concern about outliving their savings and about choosing the best way to draw income to live on from their savings. Among those planning to annuitize some or all of their retirement savings, the security of a guaranteed lifetime stream of income was by far the greatest motivation, cited by 40%, with 13% also citing the safety, stability and security of the annuitization option and 11% feeling that it will maximize their retirement income.

About 70% of those surveyed said they are concerned about being unable to afford good health care. Only 23% feel very well prepared to meet such expenses and 63% said they would be very or somewhat likely to contribute to a tax-preferred savings account specifically designed to pay for health-related expenses in retirement, indicating a desire for such a savings vehicle. A person retiring today at age 65 would need about $300,000 in savings to cover lifetime medical expenses to age 90.

© 2009 RIJ Publishing. All rights reserved.

RIIA Launches Designation for Retirement Advisors

The title “senior advisor” has been used and abused by a handful of annuity salespeople as a mask for marketing to the mallwalker set. But several quite honorable professional groups issue or intend to issue credentials that actually do signify expertise in retirement income planning.

One such group is the Retirement Income Industry Association, which plans to announce its Retirement Management Analyst designation at its third annual awards dinner at conference October 5 and 6 in Boston, along with a new book that serves as a manifesto and a roadmap to the designation.

“Manifesto” is an appropriate descriptor for the book, whose title is a mouthful: How To Benefit from ‘The View Across the Silos’: From Investment Management to Retirement Income and Retirement Management. The authors, RIIA president Francois Gadenne and risk management expert Michael Zwecher, hope that it will shake up the advisory world. (Full disclosure: I helped edit the book.)

The book’s main message is condensed into seven words: “First build a floor, then create upside.” It argues that an advisor’s primary duty in helping clients plan for retirement is to use their assets to establish a foundation of reliable or guaranteed income that meets their needs. The advisor can then use the rest of the assets to take risks.

Some advisors already practice “build a floor and create upside.” But Gadenne believes that the vast majority of financial advisors still operate from an “accumulation mindset.” This approach, and the modern portfolio theory that underlies it, fails to address the needs and risks of retirees.

Thus the reason for a book that provides something new. “There’s a vacuum in the market,” Gadenne told RIJ. “The other material that is out there is focused on the traditional approach to investment management, which is asset allocation. Asset allocation misses the point. What needs to be allocated are not assets but risk management techniques, So that you’re not simply allocating among risky assets.”

Asset allocation, which relies on modern portfolio theory and the concept of the efficient frontier, may be a good way to manage investment risk for clients with long time horizons, Gadenne and Zwecher concede. But they don’t think it’s an adequate for retirees or near-retirees. That’s because retirees require certain outcomes, not just highly probable ones.

“Asset allocation is only one of the four risk management techniques in the RIIA body of knowledge,” said Gadenne, a French-born entrepreneur with an MBA from Northwestern’s Kellogg School, who teaches part-time at Boston University.

“We’re not turning our backs to asset allocation. But if you’re driving a car, why use just one of the four cylinders? The three other techniques are risk pooling [with life insurance, health insurance or annuities], risk transfer [through structured products], and holding risk-free assets [like Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities],” he added.

As the book’s preface points out, “In the accumulation framework, the advisor’s role is to place bets and create expectations that the market may or may not fulfill. In the retirement framework that we propose, the advisor pursues outcomes-an income floor, for example-while placing bets to achieve growth and to reduce the client’s longevity risk, market risk, inflation risk, health risk, interest rate risk and so forth.”

The book also asserts that retirement planning needs to consider not just a client’s financial capital, but also his or her social capital, such as Social Security, and human capital, such as the client’s ability to work during retirement. It implicitly challenges the conventional wisdom that spending four percent of assets per year in retirement is a retirement income plan.

The cover of the book also describes it as a “Curriculum Overview for RIIA’s Advisory Process.” Buying and reading the book is an advisor’s first step toward acquiring the Retirement Management Analyst designation. “The ‘View Across the Silos’ is in a syllabus of the RMA,” Gadenne said.

That phrase-the View Across the Silos-is an expression of RIIA’s mission. The group was launched about four years ago at the urging of financial service industry executives who felt a need for a neutral forum where academics, public policy makers, and executives from the insurance, mutual fund, and financial engineering communities could meet and discuss solutions to the Boomer retirement income challenge.

RIIA’s early activities included the development of a job description for a retirement-oriented advisor and the accumulation of a “Body of Knowledge” that such advisors need to acquire. These steps have culminated in the publication of the book and the announcement of the designation, which will be followed by the creation of course materials and exams.

“Anybody who wants to can start studying for this between now and December, when we will hold the first exam in Boston.” Gadenne said. “The first cohort of graduates will be self-study. The exam in December will give us the equivalent of beta-testing, and in 2010 we’ll do the second cohort. By then we will have professionally produced study guides.”

For those who acquire the designation, “the benefit is that the advisor will understand how to allocate among risk management techniques, rather than just risky assets,” he said. “It will give advisors not just a different story to tell, but a different action plan. They don’t need to learn any thing new. But instead of buying bonds for capital gains, for instance, they would buy zero-coupon bonds and hold them to maturity, to create an income floor.”

© 2009 RIJ Publishing. All rights reserved.

 

End the D.C.-Wall Street Revolving Door, Two Academics Say

In last Sunday’s New York Times, Peter Boone of the London School of Economics and MIT’s Simon Johnson called for specific regulatory changes to prevent future financial crises.

“Our main regulatory bodies, including the Fed, are deeply compromised,” they wrote. “Rather than act as tough overseers of the public purse that we need-and that we had before 1980-they have become cheerleaders for the financial sector.”

Boone and Johnson recommended that the government:

• “Prohibit companies and senior managers in regulated financial industries from making donations to political campaigns.”

• “Restrict public employees involved in regulatory policy from working in those industries from for five years after they leave office.”

• “Prohibit people who move to government from the financial sector from making policy decisions on bailout and regulatory-related matters for a minimum of five years.”

• “Raise capital requirements for the financial sector-and the bigger the bank, the more capital you should need. The Obama administration should at least triple the current requirements.”

“The phenomenal growth of derivatives over the past 30 years,” they wrote, “has made all our big banks more interconnected, and hence systemically risky; if one bank falls the others fall with it. Yet our regulators, many of whom remain in office today, watched as this time bomb grew and then exploded with the collapse of the American International Group.”

Boone is chairman of Effective Intervention, a British charity, and a research associate at the London School of Economics’ Center for Economic Performance. Johnson, who blogs at baselinescenario.com, is a professor at the MIT Sloan School of Management and a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

© 2009 RIJ Publishing. All rights reserved.

Edward Jones to Partner with John Hancock

John Hancock Retirement Plan Services has announced a distribution partnership with the financial services firm Edward Jones.  Through the agreement, Edward Jones’ financial advisers have access to the John Hancock 401(k) platform, including JH Signature, defined contribution plans, and the Guaranteed Income For Life feature.

“We are pleased to be expanding the reach of our products and services and are particularly excited to be working with Edward Jones,” said Art Creel, Executive Vice President, Sales & Marketing, John Hancock Retirement Plan Services, in the announcement.

© 2009 RIJ Publishing. All rights reserved.

Tim Seifert Moves to Prudential from PLANCO

Tim Seifert has joined Prudential Annuities as a vice president and director of National Sales.   He will be responsible for sales planning and execution across independent broker dealer, wirehouse, bank and agency distribution channels, reporting to senior vice president Bruce Ferris.

Seifert will also oversee Prudential Annuities national sales managers, National Sales Desk and Business Development Desk. He joins Prudential after more than 23 years at PLANCO Financial Services, LLC, a Hartford Life Inc. company, where he was most recently senior managing director for sales and distribution. 

© 2009 RIJ Publishing. All rights reserved.

Funded Status of Top 100 Pensions Dropped to 75% in Last Year: Milliman

Milliman, Inc., the global consulting and actuarial firm, today released the latest update to the Milliman 100 Pension Funding Index, which consists of 100 of the nation’s largest defined benefit pension plans. In August, pensions experienced asset increases of $14 billion and liability increases of roughly $26 billion, resulting in a $12 billion decrease in funded status.

The decline reduced funded status to 75.0% based on $1.007 trillion in assets and a projected benefit obligation of $1.341 trillion. Over the last 12 months, the cumulative asset return has been 9.78% and the funded status has fallen by $338 billion. For these 12 months, the funded ratio of the Milliman 100 companies has fallen from 100.3% to 75.0%.

“August was something of a milestone month,” said John Ehrhardt, co-author of the Milliman 100 Pension Funding Index. “Not only did pension liabilities hit an all-time high for the second straight month, but it was one year ago exactly that pension funding last stood above 100%.” View the complete monthly update at www.milliman.com/expertise/employee-benefits/products-tools/pension-funding-study/index.php.

© 2009 RIJ Publishing. All rights reserved.

SEC Votes to Strengthen Oversight of Rating Agencies

The Securities and Exchange Commission voted unanimously yesterday to create rules that would improve the quality of credit ratings by requiring greater disclosure, fostering competition, helping to address conflicts of interest, shedding light on rating shopping, and promoting accountability.

One rule will force certain investors to rely less on credit ratings and more on their own research. Another requires the agencies to disclose rating histories and requires them to share information about securities they have rated with competitors so they too can rate the securities, the New York Times reported.

“These proposals are needed because investors often consider ratings when evaluating whether to purchase or sell a particular security,” said SEC Chairman Mary Schapiro. “That reliance did not serve them well over the last several years, and it is incumbent upon us to do all that we can to improve the reliability and integrity of the ratings process and give investors the appropriate context for evaluating whether ratings deserve their trust.”

In 2006, Congress passed the Credit Rating Agency Reform Act that provided the SEC with authority to impose registration, recordkeeping, and reporting rules on credit rating agencies registered as Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organizations (NRSRO). Currently, 10 credit rating agencies are registered with the Commission as NRSROs.

© 2009 RIJ Publishing. All rights reserved.

Summer Rally Lures Some 401(k) Money Back to Stocks

Participants in 401(k) plans shifted $203 million to equities from fixed income in August, according to Hewitt’s 401(k) index.

Total equity allocations rose to 56.2% of all 401(k) assets from 55.3% in July, Hewitt Associates said in its monthly report. While equity allocations have increased steadily since February, the average is still well below the 62% of a year ago, the report noted.

Lifecycle funds received 32.1% of all inflows in August, or $147 million, while international funds received 17.6%, or $80 million. Stable value funds experienced the most outflows for the month at $299 million, representing 65.4% of all outflows. Since April, stable value funds have had outflows of nearly $1 billion, the report said.

According to Hewitt, 22% of participant-only contributions went into stable value funds, while 21.8% went into lifestyle funds and 16.9% went into large-cap U.S. equity funds. For overall contributions, 21.1% was invested in lifecycle funds, 20.3% was invested in stable value and 15.7% moved into large-cap U.S. equity funds.

© 2009 RIJ Publishing. All rights reserved.

Obama Administration to Block Conflicts of Interest in 401(k) Advice

The Department of Labor is killing a regulation issued in the last days of the Bush administration allowing advisers affiliated with mutual funds, brokerage firms and other companies that sell investments to provide investment advice to 401(k) participants, Investment News reported.

“We believe the final investment advice regulation published in the Jan. 21 Federal Register went too far in permitting investment advice arrangements not specifically contemplated by the statutory exemption,” said Phyllis C. Borzi, assistant secretary of the Employee Benefits Security Administration, a unit of the Labor Department.

Ms. Borzi, made the announcement last week at a conference in Washington sponsored by the American Society of Pension Professionals & Actuaries.

The Pension Protection Act of 2006 included a provision aimed at making it easier for investment advisers to provide advice to 401(k) participants as long as fees earned by advisers are no different for investment options that are recommended and as long as disclosures are provided.

Many investment advisers opposed the Bush rule, arguing that fund companies and brokerage firms could exert pressure on advisers to recommend proprietary products. The Obama administration and House Education and Labor Committee Chairman George Miller, D-Calif., also had objected to the Bush rules.

© 2009 RIJ Publishing. All rights reserved.

Annuities Are a Middle-Class Phenomenon: Gallup/Greenwald

Non-qualified annuities contribute significantly to the retirement security of middle-class Americans, and those who own annuities have great confidence in financial future despite downturn, says a new Gallup survey.

The survey of 1003 annuity owners nationwide was conducted by The Gallup Organization and Mathew Greenwald & Associates in conjunction with the Committee of Annuity Insurers (CAI),  a trade group of major life insurance companies. 

The survey showed that eight out of 10 owners of non-qualified annuities (annuities purchased with after-tax money, rather than money in a 401(k) or IRA) have annual household incomes below $100,000 and 42% have incomes below $50,000. Only 4% have incomes over $200,000.

More than 80% if owners intend to use their annuities to avoid burdening their children in their later years. About the same percentage intend to use their annuities to hedge longevity risk.

Most non-qualified annuity owners are female (58%) and the average owner is a retired 70-year-old woman with a moderate income.  Most owners (69%) are retired, up from 58% in 2005.  Owners’ average age increased to 70 in 2009 from 66 in 2005. 

© 2009 RIJ Publishing. All rights reserved.

Early Reviews of PIMCO’s Payout Funds

The PIMCO Real Income 2019 and 2029 funds are still so new that few people know much about them. But the off-the-bat reaction from academics, retirement consultants and advisors ranged from skepticism to enthusiasm to uncertainty about the costs.

Cary Stamp, CFP, a financial advisor in Chicago and Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, said the PIMCO funds “offer a reasonable alternative to investors who don’t want to use fixed annuities,” said. “But high net worth investors could get the same protection by buying TIPS directly and the same income stream by laddering maturities.”

He also cautioned that inexperienced investors—like plan participants—might misunderstand how the products work, and expect to get income plus return of principal at the end of 10 or 20 years.  “Investors have to understand that their monthly distribution includes interest and principal. At the maturity of the fund, they will not receive their original investment back because it has been paid out along the way,” Stamp said.

Rick Miller, a fee-only advisor in Cambridge, Mass., said that he would probably offer the product to his clients if he could get it at 19 basis points—PIMCO’s cost of production—but that they wouldn’t be attractive at 79 basis points. That’s the cost of Class D shares, the most expensive. (The explanation of fees in the prospectus is not highly transparent or definitive.)

“In principle I think TIPS-based annuities like the PIMCO product meet an important need of retirees,” said Zvi Bodie, the Boston University pension expert. “The team at PIMCO discussed them with me in the design stage, and I told them this. The question is whether the cost is too high. That question can only be answered by competition from other providers of the same product.”

Retirement income expert Garth Bernard, CEO, Sharper Financial Group LLC, a former MetLife executive who speaks and writes frequently about the benefits of income annuities, offered a somewhat skeptical view.

“There is nothing particularly innovative about these PIMCO funds. It’s a laddered bond strategy. Their only meaningful differences from other laddered bond strategies are that they invest primarily in TIPS and they attempt to provide a distribution by a formula of last distribution times amount of monthly inflation, ” he said.

“So they’ve essentially rolled up the laddered bond strategy in nice packaging. As with many of the distribution/goal-oriented funds, the investment advice is embedded within the fund and the investor doesn’t have to take any active management steps. They’ve taken the laddered bond strategy to the next level.

“At the end of the day, however, nothing is guaranteed—not even the distributions themselves. If the funds incur significant capital losses, as many of the goal-oriented funds did in the past year, the distributions could disappoint the buyers. The big risk is the interest rate risk going forward, but the laddering mitigates that,” Bernard said.

“These are laddered TIPS. In other words,” Bernard added. “It’s a bond fund using primarily TIPs. The only advantage over a period-certain SPIA with an inflation/compound adjustment is that it has full liquidity. But it’s just a bond fund with a fancy name.” 

Moshe Milevsky, of York University in Toronto, had not yet seen the PIMCO prospectus. “I have heard about [these funds], but haven’t seen the details. It’s not easy for the individual investor to extract regular inflation-adjusted payments from pure TIPS, and even the ETF versions,” Milevsky noted.

“In fact, I manage a portfolio with some iSHARE ETF (TIP),” he added. “I spent quite a bit of time on the phone last year with one of their managers trying to understand why they didn’t declare and pay any dividends for a few months, even though some of the TIPS they held made coupon payments.

“The managers have much more control and the process is much more subjective than people assumed. So, from that perspective I can see the benefit of engineering something that pays constant inflation-adjusted income,” he said.

© 2009 RIJ Publishing. All rights reserved.

 

LifeYield Launches New Retirement Income Website

LifeYield LLC, a Boston-based developer of retirement income software for wealth management firms and advisors, has launched a new website with an upgraded user interface design and a detailed explanation of its flagship product, LifeYield Retirement Optimized Income Solution, or LifeYield ROI.

LifeYield’s Unified Managed Household (UMH) technology automates the process of selecting which of a client’s assets to sell to provide an income stream, the company said. It reviews the multiple taxable and tax-advantaged accounts held by family members and selects the most appropriate assets to liquidate.

The (UMH) solution is intended to generate 20% more retirement income for investors over their lifetime through tax optimization. Besides advisors, its clients include trust officers, brokers, and wealth managers.

Boston-based Silverscape executed the design and programming of the new website. “Silverscape’s project management and web development effort operated smoothly, resulting in the on-time delivery of a cross-platform and cross-browser website,” said Ryan Gorer, vice president, User Experience, at LifeYield.

“Having developed a breakthrough retirement income software solution, we wanted to make sure we developed a website to match,” said Jack Sharry, executive vice president, Strategic Development of LifeYield.

© 2009 RIJ Publishing. All rights reserved.

InFRE Retirement Certification Wins Accreditation

As of September 9, the Certified Retirement Counselor (CRC) certification has officially met the certification accreditation standards determined by the National Commission of Certifying Agencies (NCCA), according to the International Foundation for Retirement Education (InFRE), which established the CRC in 1999.

“As the leader in retirement education for professionals, InFRE is keenly aware of our responsibility in maintaining a role that promotes competency in regard to the retirement planning profession,” said Kevin Seibert, CFP, CEBS, CRC, Managing Director at InFRE, in a release.

“We knew accreditation of the CRC program was a vital building block to offering an industry-wide and consumer-accepted retirement certification. Only a few financially-related certifications have achieved NCCA accreditation status because it is difficult to meet the standards,” Seibert said.

InFRE developed the CRC with the Center for Financial Responsibility at Texas Tech University. John Salter, Ph.D., CFP, AIFA, and director of the Division of Personal Financial Planning at Texas Tech, said in a statement, “The CRC provides in-depth and focused content in all aspects of retirement.” The CRC is also endorsed by both NAGDCA [National Association of Government Defined Contribution Administrators] and NPEA [National Pension Education Association]. Over 2,000 professionals have met the CRC certification eligibility and testing requirements.

According to the announcement, “InFRE designed the CRC process to help retirement professionals understand increasingly complex issues and retirement risks facing retirees, as well as help pre-retirees saving through individual, private employer and government employer retirement plans become more retirement ready. This one-of-a-kind certification also acts as an indicator for consumers searching for a knowledgeable retirement professional that can help them with both their retirement accumulation and distribution planning needs.”

© 2009 RIJ Publishing. All rights reserved.

 

The Dollar Is On Plavix, Lipitor and Cialis

Compared with countries like Argentina, the United States has been unscathed by Weimar Republic-style hyperinflation in the 20th century. But with the price of cars, or tuition at private colleges, or a copy of the New York Times up tenfold since 1973, we know what chronic mild inflation feels like.

To put the significance of products like PIMCO’s Real Income funds in perspective, it’s useful (or at least entertaining) to look back on the history of the CPI in the U.S. Since the start of the 20th century, that history breaks into roughly three parts: an erratic adolescence, a stable adulthood, and advancing sclerosis.

Adolescence, which lasted from 1900 to just after World War II, was troubled by the inflation of 1915 to 1920 and the deflation of 1920 to 1941. Stable adulthood began with the Bretton Woods conferences after World War II, which established the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.

From 1947 to 1971, we enjoyed a golden age of almost zero inflation and a currency that was literally as good as gold. Americans could tour Europe on $5 a day and a resourceful child could fill his pockets with nickels, dimes and quarters just by returning empty soda bottles to the grocery store.

This vibrant interlude ended in 1971 when Richard Nixon, pressed by foreign lenders for repayment of Vietnam War loans in gold, abandoned Bretton Woods and set the dollar—though still the world’s reserve currency—afloat. Between 1974 and 1982, the CPI-U (for urban) doubled.

The great inflation—or stagflation, since it was not tied to economic growth—of the 1970s was halted when Paul Volcker, the Fed chairman under Presidents Carter and Reagan, hiked interest rates into nose-bleed territory. By 1983, the inflation rate lapsed to a tolerable but higher-than-ideal 2% to 3% a year.

Over the next quarter-century, we grew superficially richer but suffered from advancing financial sclerosis. Steadily falling interest rates allowed a long, luxurious bond rally and an extended bull market in stocks. Meanwhile, the U.S. quietly morphed from the world’s largest creditor nation to the world’s biggest debtor. Since 1983, the CPI-U has doubled.

The 2008 financial crisis revealed the gravity of our present condition.  No longer the muscular workshop of the world, we’re using artificial means—the financial equivalents of Plavix, Lipitor and Cialis—to circulate increasingly thinner money. Other nations still consider us too big to fail, but many prognosticators feel that inflation, like Boomers’ blood pressure, will escalate big-time.

Hence the interest in owning commodities like gold and securities like Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities or PIMCO’s Real Income funds, whose values correlate positively with inflation.

Will we need those products? Who knows; Even if inflation accelerates, daily life in the U.S. may not feel so terribly different. A loaf of bread may cost the same small percentage of our income. But we probably won’t be able to tour Europe on less than $1,000 a day.

© 2009 RIJ Publishing. All rights reserved.

 

Obama Addresses Wall Street A Year After Lehman Brothers’ Collapse

Addressing Wall Street executives, government officials and lawmakers at Federal Hall in Manhattan September 14, President Barack Obama described the reasoning behind his administration’s plans to improve the government’s regulation of the financial sector.

Here are excerpts from his speech:

“The Consumer Financial Protection Agency will have the power to ensure that consumers get information that is clear and concise, and to prevent the worst kinds of abuses. Consumers shouldn’t have to worry about loan contracts designed to be unintelligible, hidden fees attached to their mortgages, and financial penalties—whether through a credit card or debit card—that appear without warning on their statements.”

“The lack of clear rules in the past meant we had innovation of the wrong kind: the firm that could make its products look best by doing the best job of hiding the real costs won. For example, we had “teaser” rates on credit cards and mortgages that lured people in and then surprised them with big rate increases.”

“By setting ground rules, we’ll increase the kind of competition that actually provides people better and greater choices, as companies compete to offer the best product, not the one that’s most complex or confusing.”

“We’ll create an oversight council to bring together regulators from across markets to share information, to identify gaps in regulation, and to tackle issues that don’t fit neatly into an organizational chart. We’ll also require these financial firms to meet stronger capital and liquidity requirements and observe greater constraints on their risky behavior.”

“The only way to avoid a crisis of this magnitude is to ensure that large firms can’t take risks that threaten our entire financial system, and to make sure they have the resources to weather even the worst of economic storms.”

“I certainly did not run for President to bail out banks or intervene in the capital markets. But it is important to note that the very absence of common-sense regulations able to keep up with a fast-paced financial sector is what created the need for that extraordinary intervention.”

“The lack of sensible rules of the road, so often opposed by those who claim to speak for the free market, led to a rescue far more intrusive than anything any of us, Democrat or Republican, progressive or conservative, would have proposed or predicted.”

“What took place one year ago was not merely a failure of regulation or legislation; it was not merely a failure of oversight or foresight. It was a failure of responsibility that allowed Washington to become a place where problems-including structural problems in our financial system-were ignored rather than solved. It was a failure of responsibility that led homebuyers and derivative traders alike to take reckless risks they couldn’t afford. It was a collective failure of responsibility in Washington, on Wall Street, and across America that led to the near-collapse of our financial system one year ago.”

“Here on Wall Street, you have a responsibility. The reforms I’ve laid out will pass and these changes will become law. But one of the most important ways to rebuild the system stronger than before is to rebuild trust stronger than before—and you do not have to wait for a new law to do that.”

© 2009 RIJ Publishing. All rights reserved.

Sales of Indexed Annuities Soar in 2nd Qtr, Says Beacon

Apparently ignoring the legal controversy over indexed annuities, investors purchased $8.2 billion worth of those odd, structured products in the second quarter of 2009, 16% more than in the first quarter, and 20% more than in the second quarter of 2008, according to the latest Beacon Research Fixed Annuity Premium Study.

Fixed Annuity Sales by Product Type, 2Qtr 2009 (with YTD figures)
  • Book value: $14.0 billion ($33.2 billion). (These contracts pay a declared interest rate for a specific term).
  • Indexed: $8.2 billion ($15.3 billion). (Returns of these contracts are tied to the performance of an equity index).
  • Market value-adjusted: $3.5 billion ($10.0 billion). (Payouts are adjusted if the holder withdraws assets before the end of the contract).
  • Fixed income: $2.2 billion ($4.1 billion). (Immediate or deferred annuities that provide income for life and/or for a specific period).

For the entire fixed annuity market, 2009 has been a bumper year so far. On a year-to-date basis, total market sales were an estimated $62.6 billion, 39% above first half 2008. Second quarter 2009 sales were an estimated $27.8 billion, according to Beacon, which covered 410 products. Quarterly sales were 10% higher than those of second quarter 2008. but 20% below the previous quarter.

But sales were down 20% from the first quarter, when fixed annuity sales were the beneficiaries of the flight from equities and the steep yield curve, itself the result of the suppressed Fed funds rate. A steep yield curve gives fixed annuities, which are pegged to longer maturity bonds, a competitive advantage over bank certificates of deposit, which are pegged to shorter maturities.


Indexterity?

Indexed annuities, once known as equity-indexed annuities, sold a quarterly record of $8.2 billion, accounting for about 30% of all fixed annuity sales and reversing a five-quarter decline. Introduced in the late 1990s, indexed annuities characteristically consist of about 95% in bonds and about 5% equity index futures.

Indexed annuity sales boomed in the early 2000s. They appealed to investors who were willing to dip only one toe, figuratively speaking, in equity waters after the dot-com bust. Indexed annuities protect against downside loss but allow investors to participate in an equity rally.

Fixed Annuity Sales Leaders, 2Qtr 2009
By product type:

  • American National replaced MetLife as the new MVA sales leader.
  • New York Life remained first in book value and fixed income annuity sales.
  • AVIVA remained the leading indexed annuity issuer.

The five best-sellers were:

  • New York Life’s Preferred Fixed Annuity, a book value product.
  • Allianz Life’s MasterDex X, an indexed annuity.
  • New York Life’s NYL Fixed Annuity, a book value product.
  • AVIVA/American Investors Life’s Income Select Bonus, an indexed annuity.
  • Pacific Life’s Pacific Explorer, a book value product.

But indexed annuities are currently in legal limbo. The SEC has ruled that indexed annuities are not exempt from securities laws, but this summer the U.S. Court of Appeals insisted that the SEC review the ruling’s market impact.

Except for MVAs, all product types saw sales increases from second quarter 2008. Book value and fixed income annuities were up 10% and 2%, respectively. MVA sales fell 5%. Income annuity sales were up 12% quarter-to-quarter. MVAs dropped 47%, while book value products fell 27%.

Relative to first half 2008, there was double-digit growth in all product types except fixed income. MVAs were 68% ahead, book value products were up 48%, and indexed annuities advanced 22%. Fixed income sales rose 4%.


MetLife fixed sales fade

Top Fixed Annuity Products by Distribution Channel, 2Q 2009
  • New York Life’s NYL Preferred Fixed Annuity replaced NYL Fixed Annuity as the top bank channel seller.
  • The Allianz MasterDex X became the new bestseller among independent producers.
  • RiverSource Life’s Rate Bonus 1, a book value annuity, remained the leading captive agent product. (American Express advisors distribute RiverSource products.)
  • American National’s Palladium MYG annuity, an MVA product, reclaimed the lead in the independent broker-dealer channel.
  • Pacific Life’s Pacific Frontiers, also an MVA product, was the new wirehouse bestseller.
  • MetLife’s Target Maturity MVA product continued as the top product in the large/regional broker-dealer channel.In overall sales, New York Life advanced to first from second place, replacing MetLife, which fell to seventh. AVIVA USA moved up a notch into second place while Allianz Life jumped four spots third. AEGON/Transamerica advanced to fourth from fifth place.  American Equity rejoined the top 10 and came in fifth.

Asked why MetLife sales dropped to only $951 million in the second quarter from $3.63 billion in the second quarter, aMetLife spokesperson said that fixed annuities were not as attractive in the second quarter and that MetLife did not cut back on marketing the products.

“Many companies have a target level of annual sales per year,” said Judith Alexander of Beacon Research. “They may have sold most of the fixed annuities they planned to sell for all of 2009 in Q1, when the demand was there and credit spreads were wider, making the business more profitable then than it is now.”

“The downside of this approach is that your distribution can feel short-changed when you start to close the spigot, as it were. I don’t know if any of this was true in the case of MetLife, however,” she added.

© 2009 RIJ Publishing. All rights reserved.

Like Lambs to the Financial Slaughter

In the years immediately following World War II a fairly new life form rarely if ever seen in world history had emerged in America-the retired person.

Throughout human history, the question of what to do with a person who was too old or infirm to work productively in service to the community was settled very simply—you buried them, since they had probably been working, most likely in small family farms or other small trading enterprises, right up to the day of their death.

But it was the surplus value produced by the factories of the industrial revolution that let the human race imagine a future other than being tethered to a hammer or plough until their dying day. It was in 1889 that imperial Germany instituted Otto von Bismarck’s groundbreaking system of government pension payments for the few who lived to be 65 years old; in 1935, US president Franklin D Roosevelt used that same Bismarck-derived retirement age to determine when Americans could start collecting old-age assistance under the Social Security Act.

But, unlike in Europe, US Social Security was never intended to fund the entirety of a person’s retirement. Some other private savings or retirement plan would have to be initiated during a person’s worklife.

Along with the government’s old-age income support program, the increasing power of big labor, plus the factor of big industry wanting an incentive to keep skilled labor during the booming war and post-war period, led to the development of numerous private pension systems. Much like in the old movies, this would be the check that the retiree would receive along with the gold watch at the retirement party. From then on until the end of his or his spouse’s life, he would receive that same check, in that same amount (with occasional adjustments for inflation) every month; these were known as the “defined benefit”, after what the employee could count on receiving – benefit plans.

It was then, in the salad days of America’s post-war economic dominance, that a wholly new cultural avatar appeared on the land-the well-off retiree. Prior to Social Security, the elderly had been America’s poorest age cohort, living in poverty or starvation, or, as seen in 1985’s look at the trials of old age during the Great Depression, The Trip to Bountiful, forced to endure a difficult existence with less-than-welcoming children.

Soon after the passage of the Medicare old-age medical assistance bill in 1965, there began a continuing sharp decline in elderly poverty, a decline fairly unique across the nation’s age cohorts. Whole regions of the country, such as Florida and the Southwest, began to be developed and populated by retirees from the colder US northeast now with the means and other wherewithal to live independently. Cultural commentators began to speak of a new “Third Age” of American life, retirement, that, what with advances in gerontology and income support, could be perhaps as extended and fulfilling as the human race’s traditional two phases of existence, childhood and career.

But with all those 40 million elderly Americans seemingly living high off the hog by 1970, you had to know that there would be those looking to divert some of this group’s riches in their direction. As so often happens with the enforcement of the laws of unintended consequence, the process by which the elderly of the near future will be laid low and destitute started with an effort to help the elderly of the past.

Not all went swimmingly with the defined benefit pension system. Some companies were just too slothful or incompetent to run their plans properly; others just couldn’t say no when the friends of Tony Soprano came knocking and making them an offer they couldn’t refuse-namely, to not get their legs broken as long as the gumbas were allowed access to the pension money. The US Employee Retirement and Income Security Act (ERISA) was enacted into law in 1974, providing standardized rules and obligations companies must follow in order to manage most effectively their pension obligations for the benefit of their retirees.

But it was a little-noticed feature of ERISA that would turn out to have a huge effect on how retirements were financed. Americans were then authorized to establish and employ a tax advantaged investment vehicle called the Individual Retirement Account (IRA). Here they could set away funds that they, not whoever was managing their company pension, could oversee and manage in just about any way they pleased.

Up to a certain limit, monies put into an IRA were deducted from a worker’s gross taxable income, providing a very significant tax cut in those high marginal tax-rate days, and any capital gains accruing to the investments in the IRA were not subject to taxation until the worker’s retirement, when he would presumably be paying taxes at a much lower rate than during his working life.

By the late 1970s, middle-aged Americans were swooning over IRAs the same way that their children were over Tony Manero’s quiana shirt in Saturday Night Fever. They enjoyed the tax breaks of the IRA, and the chance to put their retirements in their own hands appealed to the country’s independent, cowboy spirit. Very few saw or realized what was actually happening here – that their employers, the corporations, were being taken off the hook to provide for employees’ retirement.

It was in 1978 that Congress amended the rules of the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) by adding section 401(k), taking the self-directed aspect of IRA investing a big step forward. In this, companies were authorized to offer their employees (the self-employed could do it on their own) an investment vehicle that came to be known as the 401(k). Here, employees could invest in a defined set of investment choices specified by their company, with the wages committed to the fund once again not subject to immediate taxation.

What really differentiated the 401(k) from the IRA was that, at its option, the company could match all or a part of the employee’s contribution with a contribution, called a “match”, of their own. This was the contrast to the standard, defined benefit pension plan that was still fairly common at the time; employers contributing to 401(k) and other type retirement plans were the cutting edge of America’s brave new world of retirement security, called “defined contribution” benefit plans.

Employers, both private and public, loved 401(k) defined contribution plans—they were much cheaper to administer than defined benefit plans. The latter required the continuing employment by the company of high-priced investment managers in order to ensure that the guaranteed benefit promised to the workers was earned—in contrast, all that 401(k) defined benefit plans required was the company doing an electronic funds transfer into the employee’s plan. In addition, it came to be accepted that many companies were not even offering any type of corporate financial match to the employee’s funds; just having set up a 401(k) was seen to be a commitment sufficient to the workers’ retirement security.

In 1996, economist Leslie E. Papke of Michigan State University investigated the issue of whether defined contribution 401(k) plans were replacing, not supplementing, more traditional defined benefit pension plans.

“I find that 401(k) and other DC [defined contribution] plans are substituting for terminated DB [defined benefit] plans and that offering a DC plan of any type increases the probability of a DB termination. Thus, it appears that, at the sponsor level, many of the new 401(k) plans may not be avenues for net saving but are replacements for the more traditional pension forms. Using several specifications, I estimate that a sponsor that starts with no 401(k) or other DC plan and adds a 401(k) is predicted to reduce the number of DB plans offered by at least 0.3. That is, the estimates imply that one sponsor terminates a DB plan for about every three sponsors that offer one new 401(k) plan.”

What did employees think of this phenomenon? It is important to remember that generous defined benefit pension plans were very much a product of the era of powerful US industrial and commercial labor unions, power that started to erode with the economic dislocations of the 1970s. President Ronald Reagan’s firing of the PATCO air traffic controller union workers in 1981 sent a clear signal to both labor and management as to where the US Government’s sympathies lay—sympathies that only slowly and haltingly moved back a bit towards labor during president Bill Clinton’s uneasy cohabitation with the pro-corporate Republican conservatives who took over Congress in 1994.

But it’s not like the workers’ cages weren’t gilded with a fair amount of gold. The big equity market rally that started in 1982 soon put the Dow Jones Industrial Average back over 1,000, erasing the losses of the grim bear markets of the 1970s. Self-directed investing in 401(k)s seemed to hearken back to the frontier self-sufficiency of the American psyche that conquered a continent; 100 years ago, families made soap; now they make their own investment choices. Who needed those fancy-pants pension fund managers with their hand in your pocket, especially since the then overwhelmingly accepted Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH) was saying that any average Joe could do just as well or better with a portfolio of market indexed mutual funds?

True, there were a few bumps in the road, like the six-week bear market that culminated in the crash of 1987, or the dot-com crash of 2000. Still, stocks came back from these travails; American 401(k) investors seemed to get the idea that it was in stocks’ destinies always to rally to new highs after setbacks, especially since that was the very idea that media types and books incessantly drilled into their heads. By the time of the market top in October 2007, there were estimates that Americans were holding up to US$4 trillion in equity market based 401(k) plans.

Culturally, the defined benefit pension plans that financed much of the retirement of the Depression/World War II “Greatest Generation” came to be seen by America’s 80 million baby boomers as hopelessly old fashioned and passé, their father’s Oldsmobile. With stocks up high, there was a common, almost Jungian dream that spread through the baby boomers; it was of retirement not at age 65, but at age 59 and six months, when statutory tax penalties against early withdrawals of 401(k) and other retirement plans lifted.

After that, Americans could live the life they see led by the people who sell Geritol nutritional supplements on the evening network news (because apparently no one under age 50 still watches the evening network news), active, jet-setting, athletic, with smooth, tanned faces on supple and toned bodies.

For years, Americans slaved away in their malodorous cubicles under the rule of crappy monster bosses, their only dream of liberation being that the equity appreciation in their 401(k)s would allow them to sing Johnny Paycheck’s famous “Take this Job and Shove it” on the day they became eligible for plan withdrawals.

And so were the lambs led fat and happy down into the screaming abattoir of the world financial crisis.

Julian Delasantellis is a management consultant, private investor and educator in international business in Washington State.

Read A Fate Worse than Fargo: Part 2 of a two-part essay on the dark side of Boomer retirement. Discretion is advised.

Copyright 2009 Asia Times Online (atimes.com)

 

Inflation Cushion

How can fund companies and 401(k) service providers satisfy participants’ need for an income-generating exit strategy but still keep as much money as possible from walking out the door? For many in the securities industry, that’s the $64,000 question.

So far two solutions have hit the market: the in-plan variable annuity with a guaranteed lifetime withdrawal benefit, such as Prudential’s, and managed payout balanced funds of the kind that Vanguard and Fidelity created.

Now comes PIMCO, the West Coast bond giant and unit of Allianz SE, with a new spin on the managed payout concept: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities mutual funds that pay an inflation-protected monthly income over either a 10-year or a 20-year period.

PIMCO says that its Real Income 2019 and Real Income 2029 Funds, which are “1940 Act” mutual funds that post a daily share value, are comparable to period-certain income annuities, only fully liquid. The funds are just now beginning to be rolled out to individual investors via brokers. Plan participants will hear about them later.

Thomas Streiff, PIMCO“The products will be distributed initially through the large broker dealers, which includes the four remaining wirehouses and the large independent broker dealers, as well as the banks,” said Tom Streiff, a PIMCO executive vice president who until recently worked in retirement products at UBS. “In addition to that we’ll market to 401(k) plan sponsors.”

Streiff expects the funds to suit people who leave their employer after age 59½ and who want to turn part of their savings into immediate income. The employee could leave his or her job but stay in the plan and receive checks from the recordkeeper.

That would appeal to institutional money managers who fear losing assets to a rollover IRA at a competing custodian. “Lots of plan recordkeepers are now saying, ‘We don’t want this money to walk away anymore. We would like that money to stay in the plan,’” Streiff told RIJ.

“We haven’t built the institutional product yet,” he added. “We expect the early adopters to be the retail platforms and we’ve been talking to them and they’re ready to go. But the institutional market could dwarf the retail market in short order. We haven’t built a collective trust yet but that’s not hard to do.”

“If we sell to half of the people who need income but don’t buy annuities, we’ll get $2 trillion,” Streiff said.

How they work

The funds offer a target monthly payout consisting of coupon interest, inflation-adjusted principal, and an inflation premium until depleted at their maturity date. Streiff estimated the annual payouts from a $100,000 investment to start at about $11,200  for the 2019 fund and about $6,200 for the 2029 fund.

By comparison, a person who invests $100,000 in an inflation-adjusted 10-year period certain immediate annuity from Vanguard would receive about $10,500 a year to start, according to the firm’s online calculator.  A non-inflation-adjusted ten-year payout annuity would pay a flat $11,700 or so. 

As for expenses, that depends on the share class, and ranges from 39 basis points for institutions like Charles Schwab to 49 basis points for “P-share” customers like Bank of America/Merrill Lynch or 79 basis points for “D-shares,” apparently intended for smaller advisory firms or individual advisors. Intermediaries can apply their own layer of fees, however, and that could range from zero for some fee-only advisors to a one percent management fee for others to a front-end load in the case of registered reps.

Gang Hu, PIMCOAccording to one advisor, who heard it from his PIMCO wholesaler, the wirehouses will charge a front-end load of 3.75%, 3.25%, 2.25% and 1.75% for investments of under $100,000, $100,000 to $249,999, and $250,000 to $499,999, and $500,000 to $999,999, respectively. Investments of $1 million or more will have no load.

Converting a TIPS fund into a managed payout fund required a lot of financial engineering, Streiff said. “[Real Income] looks simple from a distance, and we want it to look straightforward to the investor. But the reason why this hasn’t been done before is because it’s complicated. It’s because of how TIPS themselves work.

“We have to take the lumpy, awkward structure of TIPS—there are five years in which no TIPS mature, TIPS dividends are paid out only twice a year, and the inflation accruals are monthly—and turn it into a predictable cash flow for the investor. That’s the challenge,” he added.

“We have built a proprietary algorithm that fills the holes in the TIPS curve. You can do that with inflation swaps or derivatives, but we chose not to use any of those. We’re creating a synthetic TIP using actual TIPS in other parts of the curve. It’s possible that no one else will do this. You have to be a major player in the TIPS market,” Streiff said.

The funds are managed by PIMCO senior vice president Gang Hu, who formerly worked at Deutsche Bank and has an undergraduate degree from Tsinghua University in Beijing.

The funds don’t protect investors from longevity risk, but PIMCO suggests that investors add longevity protection by buying a deferred, life-contingent income annuity—also called an ALDA, or advanced life deferred annuity—that could provide monthly income when the TIPS income stops.

For those unfamiliar with TIPS: they pay a real yield, currently about 1.9% for a 2019 maturity, and each year the value of the underlying bond grows by the CPI rate. For example, if you invested $1,000 in a new 10-year TIPS with a 2% coupon and inflation the following year is 3%, the principal would rise in value to $1,030 and the interest payment for that year would be $20.60.

 (To read experts’ comments on the new PIMCO payout funds, see “Early Reviews of PIMCO’s Payout Funds.”

© 2009 RIJ Publishing. All rights reserved.