The Seeds of Inflation are Beginning to Sprout
'Trump’s inconsistent trade policies and persistent badgering of Fed Chair Powell and his colleagues has undermined business confidence,' writes our guest columnist, an economist.
Mr. President, Please Stop Tweeting!
'If, as appears, Fed policy is truly being influenced by pressure from Trump, then we will have reckless monetary policy combined with fiscal policy that is out of control,'...
No Need for Lower Rates, but Rate Cuts Likely Anyway
'The Fed’s story is confusing to us. Not only do we think lower rates are unnecessary, they are unlikely to help the Fed achieve its goals. Instead, Trump should...
The Case for Lower Rates is Vanishing
Although it looks like the Fed will yield to pressure for an interest rate reduction, our guest columnist thinks the US economy will be able to reach its target...
Wages are rising, but so is productivity
'Consumer debt in relation to income remains low. Interest rates remain low and the Fed has now ceased its series of rate hikes. We anticipate GDP growth of 2.7%...
Trade Tantrum
'Thus, the rather impressive widening of the trade gap last year subtracted a mere 0.2% from GDP growth. It is hard to conclude that the wider trade gap had...
Fourth Quarter Fears are Disappearing
'The stock market’s slide late last year was unnerving... Our sense was that the economic fundamentals remained solid and that the selloff was nothing more than exaggerated stock...
‘No Sign of Recession on the Horizon’
Citing growth in the US labor force and in productivity, our guest columnist sees no likelihood of a recession in the near future despite volatility in the equity markets....
Numbernomics’ Forecast for 2019
'The stock market will climb to a record high level during 2019. But for this to happen, investment spending must continue to grow rapidly, and productivity must sustain a...
Tax Cut and Tech Brighten US Economic Outlook
'I believe sustained investment spending and faster productivity growth will boost potential GDP growth from 1.8% to 2.8% within a few years,' writes our guest columnist.
The Economy Gathers Momentum
'The Fed should maintain the interest rate glide path it has described, which will boost the funds rate to the 3.2% mark by the end of next year and...
Should We Worry About Higher Oil Prices?
'Faster global growth contributed to the earlier increase in oil prices. Slower growth triggered by reduced trade flows will do the opposite,' writes our guest columnist.
Good Policy Will Keep the Economy Humming
'We believe that potential growth will pick up from 1.8% in the 2000’s to 2.8% by the end of this decade. There is no reason that today’s surge in...
Work Longer: It’s Good for You and for the US Budget
Retirement will prove less challenging for the baby boomers than feared because many will choose to work longer and many have a net worth cushion, writes our guest columnist....
Don’t Fear the Trade Deficit with China
'The counterpart of a $568 billion U.S. trade deficit is $568 billion of foreign capital inflows into the United States,' writes the NumberNomics blogger and former chief U.S. economist...
Nobody Wins a Trade War
'Sit back, take a deep breath, and try to figure out why the stock market has been reacting so violently,' writes our guest columnist, who blogs about the economy.
Bond Market Frets Over Treasury Supply
'Without wanting to be unduly alarmist, the U.S. has a debt problem,' writes our guest columnist regarding the roots of recent market volatility. 'And that is not going to...
Bitcoin is a Bubble. Blockchain is a Breakthrough
'Bitcoins are only useful to speculators, but the blockchain technology on which it is based will both enhance cyber-security and make the current payment mechanism far more efficient,' writes...
The Pleasant Inflation Surprise — Will It Last?
'The core inflation rate is likely to exceed the Fed’s 2.0% inflation target by the end of next year, which should keep the Fed on its path of gradual...
The Fed Reveals its Game Plan
'Given a snail’s pace of removing excessive monetary policy accommodation, it is hard to envision Fed policy threatening the economy any time soon,' a former senior economist at the...
